General Leafs Talk: Post-Olympics Edition

[L K]

Damien Cox ‏@DamoSpin  5m
For those slagging Carlyle today, I get it. But were you praising his coaching when team was sizzling hot? Can't have it both ways.

Who is Damien talking to here?

FOr those praising Kessel, I get it.  But were you slagging Kessel when he went through a brief scoring slump?  Can't have it both ways.

Damien needs to shut up.

 

[Jalili]

Columbus is playing in Long Island right now.

It would be really beneficial for us if they don't win, but the Isles do happen to have the worst home record in the league, so the odds don't favour it.

Assuming the worst, we'll be going into tonight's game in a tie with Columbus with Detroit trailing by a point.

 

[L K]

It's also a massive stretch that he hasn't been that bad, if you want to get pedantic.

Aside from Montreal I don't think he cost the team any wins.

"Costing the team wins" is sort of a nebulous concept. I get what you mean. But I don't think we should underestimate the impact that his weak first period play has on the team's ability to play well for the rest of the night. He literally let in one of the first shots against in all four games he started, and proceeded to hang on, in mediocre fashion, for the rest of the game, leaving the team with an uphill battle. So whether or not he's "costing the team wins", he's a huge part of the problem right now.

Agreed. We can't underestimate the psychological impact he has on the rest of the team when he continues to give up weak goals in important games, and creates a mountain to climb game after game.

How about when the goaltender is expected to make an excessive amount of saves in the 1st period because they team doesn't come prepared to play most nights.  It honestly goes both ways.  This team feasted on absurdly competent goaltending for 2/3 of the year.  The second it faltered the team did absolutely nothing to change how they played to make up for it.  The goaltending has compensated for terrible positional player performance far more than the other way around. 

Blaming Reimer for the team falling apart down the stretch is like blaming the guy who sticks his finger in the dam for not maintaining the integrity of the structure.

 

[bustaheims]

Damien Cox ‏@DamoSpin  5m
For those slagging Carlyle today, I get it. But were you praising his coaching when team was sizzling hot? Can't have it both ways.

Who is Damien talking to here?

Busta.......

Come on, now. I never ever ever praised Carlyle. I've been very consistent.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

"Costing the team wins" is sort of a nebulous concept. I get what you mean. But I don't think we should underestimate the impact that his weak first period play has on the team's ability to play well for the rest of the night. He literally let in one of the first shots against in all four games he started, and proceeded to hang on, in mediocre fashion, for the rest of the game, leaving the team with an uphill battle. So whether or not he's "costing the team wins", he's a huge part of the problem right now.

It's really only been the past 2 games where he's let in weak first period goals though. I didn't catch the San Jose game so I won't really comment on it, but from what I understand the whole team just stunk that night. I don't recall too much anger towards Reimer for that loss. He went in and shut LA out. Against Washington two of the 1st period goals were on the powerplay and on all 3 the team was running around and not in position. Afterward he was able to shut the door in the following 2 periods. Against Detroit he let in a breakaway goal in the 1st and even in Carlyle's opinion was ok, which is quite an upgrade from bad or that bad. And then we get to Tampa Bay, yes that 1st goal was weak. Some people defended it because he couldn't really see it, but yeah when you let those goals in they can be pretty deflating. But then the team let one of the best players on the planet score 3 goals without even really trying to cover him. People can blame Reimer all they want but he was left out to dry in that one. And then again we get to Montreal where he let the team down.

That's one game where he was "a huge part of the problem" in my opinion.

 

[Redleaf]

It's also a massive stretch that he hasn't been that bad, if you want to get pedantic.

Aside from Montreal I don't think he cost the team any wins.

"Costing the team wins" is sort of a nebulous concept. I get what you mean. But I don't think we should underestimate the impact that his weak first period play has on the team's ability to play well for the rest of the night. He literally let in one of the first shots against in all four games he started, and proceeded to hang on, in mediocre fashion, for the rest of the game, leaving the team with an uphill battle. So whether or not he's "costing the team wins", he's a huge part of the problem right now.

Agreed. We can't underestimate the psychological impact he has on the rest of the team when he continues to give up weak goals in important games, and creates a mountain to climb game after game.

How about when the goaltender is expected to make an excessive amount of saves in the 1st period because they team doesn't come prepared to play most nights.  It honestly goes both ways.  This team feasted on absurdly competent goaltending for 2/3 of the year.  The second it faltered the team did absolutely nothing to change how they played to make up for it.  The goaltending has compensated for terrible positional player performance far more than the other way around. 

Blaming Reimer for the team falling apart down the stretch is like blaming the guy who sticks his finger in the dam for not maintaining the integrity of the structure.

But we have another guy who 'has' been able to hold the dam together with one finger. Poor structure and all.

 

[bustaheims]

But we have another guy who 'has' been able to hold the dam together with one finger. Poor structure and all.

He's also been showing some signs of cracks in his play and, obviously, in his physical well being.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

He's also been showing some signs of cracks in his play and, obviously, in his physical well being.

Before last night Bernier had a .909 SV% post-Olympics. Reimer had a .907 SV%.

 

[bustaheims]

He's also been showing some signs of cracks in his play and, obviously, in his physical well being.

Before last night Bernier had a .909 SV% post-Olympics. Reimer had a .907 SV%.

That's sort of what I was alluding to. In 3 of his 5 starts before the game against LA, he had a Sv% of .903 or lower. He's starting to show some signs of fatigue. He's been great this season, but, he's not "holding the dam together with one finger" anymore.

 

[L K]

It's also a massive stretch that he hasn't been that bad, if you want to get pedantic.

Aside from Montreal I don't think he cost the team any wins.

"Costing the team wins" is sort of a nebulous concept. I get what you mean. But I don't think we should underestimate the impact that his weak first period play has on the team's ability to play well for the rest of the night. He literally let in one of the first shots against in all four games he started, and proceeded to hang on, in mediocre fashion, for the rest of the game, leaving the team with an uphill battle. So whether or not he's "costing the team wins", he's a huge part of the problem right now.

Agreed. We can't underestimate the psychological impact he has on the rest of the team when he continues to give up weak goals in important games, and creates a mountain to climb game after game.

How about when the goaltender is expected to make an excessive amount of saves in the 1st period because they team doesn't come prepared to play most nights.  It honestly goes both ways.  This team feasted on absurdly competent goaltending for 2/3 of the year.  The second it faltered the team did absolutely nothing to change how they played to make up for it.  The goaltending has compensated for terrible positional player performance far more than the other way around. 

Blaming Reimer for the team falling apart down the stretch is like blaming the guy who sticks his finger in the dam for not maintaining the integrity of the structure.

But we have another guy who 'has' been able to hold the dam together with one finger. Poor structure and all.

Post Olympics:

Bernier - 30/35 (.857), 26/30 (.867), 35/37 (.946), 28/31 (.903), 43/44 (.977), 8/10 (.800)
Overall - .909 SV%
AVG # Shots - 35.1

Reimer - 31/33 (.939), 42/48 (.875), 31/31 (1.00), 29/32 (.906), 28/31 (.903), 25/30 (.833), 32/36 (.889)
Overall - .905 SV%
AVG # Shots - 36.2

The difference between Reimer and Bernier's SV% is one goal.  The Leafs have scored 14 goals with Reimer in net over 6 2/3 hockey games (2.10 Goals/Game).  With Bernier they have scored 18 goals over 5 1/3 (3.38 Goals/Game).  So Reimer gives up one more goal over a 6 game period than Bernier has been performing...and the Leafs have given scored more than a goal less PER GAME with Reimer in net.

The forwards have played like garbage.  Maybe it's a lack of confidence in Reimer, but that's pretty bunk if this team is in a playoff battle and plays crap defense and offense and the blame gets lain at the feet of the goaltender when the team in front of him quits playing remotely close to quality hockey.  You aren't going to win very many games scoring 2 goals a night.

EDIT:  And that isn't to say that Reimer isn't part of the problem.  He's not making enough saves for the team to win, and some of those early goals really do hurt the team.  But this is a top down problem.

1) The coach can't get the team motivated to play hard right from puck drop.  He can't get the team to hold leads in the 3rd period.  He can't implement a system that doesn't have the team playing 60% of the game in their own zone.  They get horribly outplayed/outshot/outscored in 2 out of 3 periods this year.  They are historically bad at puck possession.  They are historically bad at giving up shots.  Their special teams have fallen apart completely with a terrible PK and a PP that is still on the season good but is continuing a slow decline to mediocrity.
2) The forwards suck at defensive zone coverage.  They turn the puck over a lot and are out of position constantly.  Outside of the Kessel line, they really haven't shown an ability to stay consistent as a group.
3) The defense have been downright terrible in their own zone.  Leaving guys wide open in the slot.  Not taking their man.  Slow to adjust to speed.
4) The goalies aren't providing top 10 goaltending anymore

It's a massive collection of things that are going wrong and the longer Carlyle has been in place, the worse they have gotten.  You either torch the core of this team to fix the problem, or you gamble that the coach has just been a disaster at managing the tools that he was given.

One way or another a big change is going to have to take place in the offseason.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

4) The goalies aren't providing top 10 goaltending anymore

And that's the thing, a lot of the 'stats' guys (guys like Mirtle for instance) predicted that, over a full 82-game season, the Leafs couldn't play the way they were playing during last season's shorter season and make the playoffs unless they received elite goaltending all season, and had special teams success (and maintained a high SH%).  Their 5 on 5 play was too poor - and it's only become worse this season, and you see that as soon as there are stretches where the goaltending doesn't play at that level then the team struggles.

It's a lot to ask of your goalies to face that many shots nightly and have to be one of the top in the league just to make the playoffs.

 

[Redleaf]

It's also a massive stretch that he hasn't been that bad, if you want to get pedantic.

Aside from Montreal I don't think he cost the team any wins.

"Costing the team wins" is sort of a nebulous concept. I get what you mean. But I don't think we should underestimate the impact that his weak first period play has on the team's ability to play well for the rest of the night. He literally let in one of the first shots against in all four games he started, and proceeded to hang on, in mediocre fashion, for the rest of the game, leaving the team with an uphill battle. So whether or not he's "costing the team wins", he's a huge part of the problem right now.

Agreed. We can't underestimate the psychological impact he has on the rest of the team when he continues to give up weak goals in important games, and creates a mountain to climb game after game.

How about when the goaltender is expected to make an excessive amount of saves in the 1st period because they team doesn't come prepared to play most nights.  It honestly goes both ways.  This team feasted on absurdly competent goaltending for 2/3 of the year.  The second it faltered the team did absolutely nothing to change how they played to make up for it.  The goaltending has compensated for terrible positional player performance far more than the other way around. 

Blaming Reimer for the team falling apart down the stretch is like blaming the guy who sticks his finger in the dam for not maintaining the integrity of the structure.

But we have another guy who 'has' been able to hold the dam together with one finger. Poor structure and all.

Post Olympics:

Bernier - 30/35 (.857), 26/30 (.867), 35/37 (.946), 28/31 (.903), 43/44 (.977), 8/10 (.800)
Overall - .909 SV%
AVG # Shots - 35.1

Reimer - 31/33 (.939), 42/48 (.875), 31/31 (1.00), 29/32 (.906), 28/31 (.903), 25/30 (.833), 32/36 (.889)
Overall - .905 SV%
AVG # Shots - 36.2

The difference between Reimer and Bernier's SV% is one goal.  The Leafs have scored 14 goals with Reimer in net over 6 2/3 hockey games (2.10 Goals/Game).  With Bernier they have scored 18 goals over 5 1/3 (3.38 Goals/Game).  So Reimer gives up one more goal over a 6 game period than Bernier has been performing...and the Leafs have given scored more than a goal less PER GAME with Reimer in net.

The forwards have played like garbage.  Maybe it's a lack of confidence in Reimer, but that's pretty bunk if this team is in a playoff battle and plays crap defense and offense and the blame gets lain at the feet of the goaltender when the team in front of him quits playing remotely close to quality hockey.  You aren't going to win very many games scoring 2 goals a night.

EDIT:  And that isn't to say that Reimer isn't part of the problem.  He's not making enough saves for the team to win, and some of those early goals really do hurt the team.  But this is a top down problem.

1) The coach can't get the team motivated to play hard right from puck drop.  He can't get the team to hold leads in the 3rd period.  He can't implement a system that doesn't have the team playing 60% of the game in their own zone.  They get horribly outplayed/outshot/outscored in 2 out of 3 periods this year.  They are historically bad at puck possession.  They are historically bad at giving up shots.  Their special teams have fallen apart completely with a terrible PK and a PP that is still on the season good but is continuing a slow decline to mediocrity.
2) The forwards suck at defensive zone coverage.  They turn the puck over a lot and are out of position constantly.  Outside of the Kessel line, they really haven't shown an ability to stay consistent as a group.
3) The defense have been downright terrible in their own zone.  Leaving guys wide open in the slot.  Not taking their man.  Slow to adjust to speed.
4) The goalies aren't providing top 10 goaltending anymore

It's a massive collection of things that are going wrong and the longer Carlyle has been in place, the worse they have gotten.  You either torch the core of this team to fix the problem, or you gamble that the coach has just been a disaster at managing the tools that he was given.

One way or another a big change is going to have to take place in the offseason.

If the argument is that both goalies have played relatively the same, and have similar statistical numbers, than how does one explain their W-L records. Bernier has a respectable 25W-16L , while Reimer has a losing record of 11W-12L.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Columbus just burned one of their two games in hand. Lost 2-0 to the Islanders. I watched the 3rd period, they weren't too impressive. Had a couple of powerplays including a late one where they pulled their goalie and didn't create much.

 

[Kin]

If the argument is that both goalies have played relatively the same, and have similar statistical numbers, than how does one explain their W-L records. Bernier has a respectable 25W-16L , while Reimer has a losing record of 11W-12L.

Well, one would probably start by pointing out that outside of Chris Osgood's immediate family nobody should really think that won-lost records are a good individual metric.

 

[Jalili]

Columbus just burned one of their two games in hand. Lost 2-0 to the Islanders. I watched the 3rd period, they weren't too impressive. Had a couple of powerplays including a late one where they pulled their goalie and didn't create much.

I didn't watch it but I'm surprised they didn't win.

If the Leafs/Wings win tonight that puts them in a very tough spot.

 

[bustaheims]

Columbus just burned one of their two games in hand. Lost 2-0 to the Islanders. I watched the 3rd period, they weren't too impressive. Had a couple of powerplays including a late one where they pulled their goalie and didn't create much.

One of the first things to break in the Leafs' favour in a while - though, they also didn't really burn one of their games in hand, since they'll be back at 2 by the end of the day.

 

[Mike1]

He's also been showing some signs of cracks in his play and, obviously, in his physical well being.

Before last night Bernier had a .909 SV% post-Olympics. Reimer had a .907 SV%.

Think about how good the stats would be if it was just one guy getting peppered all year instead of a split between two guys. Reimer has struggled lately(no thanks to his coach) but he has also had his moments of real good play when he has been in there. Why people are so interested in picking one goalie & taking sides is beyond me...the real problems with this team still remain & show no sign of improvement.

 

[L K]

If the argument is that both goalies have played relatively the same, and have similar statistical numbers, than how does one explain their W-L records. Bernier has a respectable 25W-16L , while Reimer has a losing record of 11W-12L.

Because that isn't the argument at all?  Noone is saying Bernier = Reimer this year.  Bernier has been the better of the two goaltenders.  But since the all-star break/Olympic break, the difference between them is minimal. 

And goaltender performance isn't the only thing that results in wins/losses.  The team scores considerably fewer goals when Reimer has been playing.  You can't win games when the team doesn't score, regardless of how well the goaltenders play.

And if we are going to argue that Reimer keeps putting the team behind with early goals, the Leafs should be playing more aggressively to tie the game and should be scoring more.

 

[Bullfrog]

If the argument is that both goalies have played relatively the same, and have similar statistical numbers, than how does one explain their W-L records. Bernier has a respectable 25W-16L , while Reimer has a losing record of 11W-12L.

Well, one would probably start by pointing out that outside of Chris Osgood's immediate family nobody should really think that won-lost records are a good individual metric.

You're wrong.

Raycroft's family also believes in win-loss records.

 

[Redleaf]

If the argument is that both goalies have played relatively the same, and have similar statistical numbers, than how does one explain their W-L records. Bernier has a respectable 25W-16L , while Reimer has a losing record of 11W-12L.

Because that isn't the argument at all?  Noone is saying Bernier = Reimer this year.  Bernier has been the better of the two goaltenders.  But since the all-star break/Olympic break, the difference between them is minimal. 

And goaltender performance isn't the only thing that results in wins/losses.  The team scores considerably fewer goals when Reimer has been playing.  You can't win games when the team doesn't score, regardless of how well the goaltenders play.

And if we are going to argue that Reimer keeps putting the team behind with early goals, the Leafs should be playing more aggressively to tie the game and should be scoring more.

This was kind of my point. The team has lost all faith in Reimer. That's the difference. Stats don't tell you that. Wins and loses come closer to showing it though.