General Leafs Talk

[GhostofPotvin29]

Also, it was a short season.  Over 82 games this past year's team likely regresses further to the mean than the season let them.

On what basis can you conclude they 'likely' regress?  If I have a population of 82, I feel pretty darn confident that I can extrapolate the results of 48 case sample across the entire population.

Also, weren't you just arguing that Grabovski's 2009-2010 point totals should have been extrapolated across an 82 game schedule?

What?  I'm getting confused what you're asking.  Yes, Grabovski's 2009-2010 point totals should be shown based on a PPG basis to compare it to a normal season - why would you compare point totals from 58 games with 82 games?  There's a whole lot of games missing to get points, it's unfair.

The idea of regression for a team is different - if a team has an unusually high SH% or unusually low SH% it is a good bet that it will either decrease or increase over time.  If the Leafs have a SH% that is well above the norm (the highest in a season is typically ~9% for a team) then it is likely to fall - more likely to fall than it is to say that the Leafs teams are historically great snipers.  It is just saying that if a team is too high or too low that it should correct itself - New Jersey had the opposite problem this season (partly also due to injuries).  They couldn't score despite playing well - a trend unlikely to continue. 

I've run into problems before so I will emphasize the phrases/words, "good bet", "unlikely" etc. 

 

[AvroArrow]

Scuderi a leaf?

Pierre LeBrun ‏@RealESPNLeBrun 17m
Done deal: Maple Leafs agree to a 4 year, $3.75 M deal with Rob Scuderi

Wow, that's less than a million a year? 

Never Mind.  Fake Lebrun account.

You tease.

 

[mr grieves]

Also, it was a short season.  Over 82 games this past year's team likely regresses further to the mean than the season let them.

On what basis can you conclude they 'likely' regress?  If I have a population of 82, I feel pretty darn confident that I can extrapolate the results of 48 case sample across the entire population.

On the basis of only a half dozen or so teams managing 10-11 SH% over a full season in the last 10 years.

Same reason people thought Frattin might regress after 7 games of shooting 40%.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Gotta go back to work, but this is likely to be a better explanation than I could ever hope to give, but it makes sense to me anyways:

http://theleafsnation.com/2012/3/14/the-toronto-maple-leafs-inevitable-regression

 

[L K]

The Leafs are left with 14.3M to sign: Kadri, Bernier, Gunnarsson, Franson, Fraser and Colborne from the current roster.

At least one of them is certainly gone under those circumstances.    They need a minimum of 2 forwards, 2 defensemen and 1 goaltender to ice a complete roster.  But that would have them at a 20 man roster with no pressbox players.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

The Leafs are left with 14.3M to sign: Kadri, Bernier, Gunnarsson, Franson, Fraser and Colborne from the current roster.

At least one of them is certainly gone under those circumstances.    They need a minimum of 2 forwards, 2 defensemen and 1 goaltender to ice a complete roster.  But that would have them at a 20 man roster with no pressbox players.

I think Liles is toast.

 

[Zee]

The Leafs are left with 14.3M to sign: Kadri, Bernier, Gunnarsson, Franson, Fraser and Colborne from the current roster.

At least one of them is certainly gone under those circumstances.    They need a minimum of 2 forwards, 2 defensemen and 1 goaltender to ice a complete roster.  But that would have them at a 20 man roster with no pressbox players.

I think Liles is toast.

Based on talk about contract negotiations with Franson it sounds like he could be heading out of town in a trade so Liles would stay.

 

[L K]

The Leafs are left with 14.3M to sign: Kadri, Bernier, Gunnarsson, Franson, Fraser and Colborne from the current roster.

At least one of them is certainly gone under those circumstances.    They need a minimum of 2 forwards, 2 defensemen and 1 goaltender to ice a complete roster.  But that would have them at a 20 man roster with no pressbox players.

I think Liles is toast.

Based on talk about contract negotiations with Franson it sounds like he could be heading out of town in a trade so Liles would stay.

That's concerning to me to be honest.  Franson was a big reason for the Leafs pushing Boston to 7 games.  He provides a lot of offense on the blueline and the PP is dangerous when he is on the point.  I honestly can't say the same when it is Liles back there.  And given that Franson would be an unsigned RFA I doubt the Leafs get back the kind of package that adds much of significance to their roster.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Based on talk about contract negotiations with Franson it sounds like he could be heading out of town in a trade so Liles would stay.

What talk, other than that radio dude that apparently doesn't know too much?

 

[Bender]

So what would the lines look like if we started playing today?

JVR - Bozak - Kessel
Lupul - Kadri - Clarkson
Kuli - Bolland - ? One of the kids? Who?
McLaren - McClement - Orr

Not liking this lineup... Just chair shuffling.

 

[Kin]

That's concerning to me to be honest.  Franson was a big reason for the Leafs pushing Boston to 7 games.  He provides a lot of offense on the blueline and the PP is dangerous when he is on the point.  I honestly can't say the same when it is Liles back there.  And given that Franson would be an unsigned RFA I doubt the Leafs get back the kind of package that adds much of significance to their roster.

However considering Phaneuf, Gardiner and Reilly will all be in the line-up in the next few years offensive defenseman is a position where they could look to deal from.

 

[#1PilarFan]

Don't know that you can say Phaneuf will be on the team for the next few years. Only one year left on his deal. Might be a good candidate to move, if anyone will bite.

 

[Zee]

The Leafs are left with 14.3M to sign: Kadri, Bernier, Gunnarsson, Franson, Fraser and Colborne from the current roster.

At least one of them is certainly gone under those circumstances.    They need a minimum of 2 forwards, 2 defensemen and 1 goaltender to ice a complete roster.  But that would have them at a 20 man roster with no pressbox players.

I think Liles is toast.

Based on talk about contract negotiations with Franson it sounds like he could be heading out of town in a trade so Liles would stay.

That's concerning to me to be honest.  Franson was a big reason for the Leafs pushing Boston to 7 games.  He provides a lot of offense on the blueline and the PP is dangerous when he is on the point.  I honestly can't say the same when it is Liles back there.  And given that Franson would be an unsigned RFA I doubt the Leafs get back the kind of package that adds much of significance to their roster.

I actually think the Franson contract status works to the Leaf favor.  A team acquiring him knows his cap hit can't be super high since he's an RFA and you have leverage over a young and promising offensive d-man.

 

[drummond]

Leafs added lots of physicality but at the same time lost lots of speed, a trait which characterized them last year and undisputedly won them quite a lot of games....

 

[hockeyfan1]

Leafs added lots of physicality but at the same time lost lots of speed, a trait which characterized them last year and undisputedly won them quite a lot of games....

Speed is critical to a team.  Hope the lessening of it doesn't hamper them too much.

 

[Mike1]

They also never really bothered to address their weaknesses. Lack of toughness was not the reason we lost to the Bruins. Our defense hasn't been upgraded, at center we got worse or have committed to the status quo, which was a problem. David Clarkson isn't going to stop this team from getting constantly outshot or prevent them from spending way too much time in their own end.

Not very impressed with Dave Nonis at all. He completely missed the boat on what this team needed. He wasted assets/depth & cap space upgrading what really didn't need upgrading. Why add a goalie when the one you have got you the playoffs? Why give a winger a big 7-year contact when there are a plethora of wingers out there you could signed for less dollars/term & similar production? Why buy-out a center & then keep another one who has a worse offensive ceiling?

This has not been a good off-season at all...it's not like my expectations were sky high. Lord only knows, for the Leafs, they never are.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

What don't people understand about Clarkson and Bolland being better defensive forwards than the players they replaced?

The reason the Leafs lost isn't only because the defense needed upgrading, but the forwards too.

The PK was better this year because of Jay McClement, a guy who is a forward AND can play a responsible defensive game. To that end, Nonis absolutely did address a need.

EDIT: Nonis also kept Bozak, the player who played PK and PP time on the team, and who is/was the more responsible defensive player (32 giveaways/32 takeaways vs. Grabbo's 32 giveaways/19 takeaways).

 

[maplesyrup]

I'm not much into advanced stats but I'm not sure if either Bolland or Clarkson are defensive stalwarts. That said, both are guys I might lean on in a lot of situations. I really can't imagine a situation where I wouldn't want either guy on the ice.

 

[Zee]

I'm not much into advanced stats but I'm not sure if either Bolland or Clarkson are defensive stalwarts. That said, both are guys I might lean on in a lot of situations. I really can't imagine a situation where I wouldn't want either guy on the ice.

If either is as reliable as McClement on defensive situations I'm happy. I wanted McClement on the ice in every defensive zone situation last year because he almost always made the smart play.  Our PK should continue to be a strength this season.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 4 Beta

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

I'm not much into advanced stats but I'm not sure if either Bolland or Clarkson are defensive stalwarts. That said, both are guys I might lean on in a lot of situations. I really can't imagine a situation where I wouldn't want either guy on the ice.

I'm not an advanced stats guy either, but Bolland looks to have more take aways than give aways (same as McClement) last year, and over his career he has a drastically larger # of takeaways than giveaways (a lot less giveaways than McClement even).

Someone else who knows more about it than I can shed some light on it, but base on his GA/TA #'s, Blocked shots and hits, I'd imagine that he's pretty good to good defensively, and failing that, just plain responsible with the puck (leading to increased possession for his team).