Goaltending conundrum

[Deebo]

I'd go back to Jonas.

 

[lc9]

I am still under the impression that neither goalie is the clear number 1, because no one has played well enough to deserve that distinction, including Gus.  Up 4-1 on the road in the 3rd and Gus lets in two softies? 

This is still a free for all, so stick with the hot hand, and right now it belongs to Reimer who just had a shutout. 

 

[Arn]

It's nice to have the dilemma on this side of the coin for a change rather than going with the one who essentially sucks less!

I'm not sure we can call it a dilemma just yet.  Last night's game wasn't exactly a heavy workload for Reimer where he made a number of spectacular saves.  He saved what he had to, but don't forget that the Pens hit 3 posts.  Any one of those goes in and it's a different story. It's great that he got the shutout, but it was a fairly mild performance from the Pens.

Fair point. Dilemma may have been too strong a word but the general point still stands I think. I mean a shutout is a shutout and they're not the most common thing Leafs goalies have had the last half decade. I didn't see either of the Penguin games though so I can't judge the performances.

 

[Zee]

It's nice to have the dilemma on this side of the coin for a change rather than going with the one who essentially sucks less!

I'm not sure we can call it a dilemma just yet.  Last night's game wasn't exactly a heavy workload for Reimer where he made a number of spectacular saves.  He saved what he had to, but don't forget that the Pens hit 3 posts.  Any one of those goes in and it's a different story. It's great that he got the shutout, but it was a fairly mild performance from the Pens.

Fair point. Dilemma may have been too strong a word but the general point still stands I think. I mean a shutout is a shutout and they're not the most common thing Leafs goalies have had the last half decade. I didn't see either of the Penguin games though so I can't judge the performances.

It's an interesting choice for sure and it'll be debated from now until game time.  If the Leafs win on Saturday, Wilson will look like a genius based on his goalie selection, if they lose he'll be second guessed to no end by the camp of "he should have started the other guy because..."

 

[maplesyrup]

Interesting...

mirtle James Mirtle
Reimer's even strength save percentage is .934, quite a bit higher than Gustavsson's .914. With the Leafs not taking penalties, play Reimer.
2 minutes ago

 

[Newbury]

I found this quite interesting

mirtle James Mirtle
Reimer's even strength save percentage is .934, quite a bit higher than Gustavsson's .914. With the Leafs not taking penalties, play Reimer.

 

[Strangelove]

I am still under the impression that neither goalie is the clear number 1, because no one has played well enough to deserve that distinction, including Gus.  Up 4-1 on the road in the 3rd and Gus lets in two softies? 

This is still a free for all, so stick with the hot hand, and right now it belongs to Reimer who just had a shutout.

First of all, those weren't "softies" - one was a well-placed slapshot from the slot and the other was a complete defensive breakdown in front of the net.  It was the Leafs' D that collapsed last game, not Gus.

Secondly, if you want to stick with the hot hand you stick with Gus, who has been playing well for a long time.  Claiming that Reimer is the go-to guy simply because he won the last game is more than a little short-sighted given that we now have a fairly big sample size to worth with on the season, one which points to Gus being the better and more consistent goaltender right now.  A solid but far from spectacular shutout from Reimer doesn't change that fact.

 

[Strangelove]

I found this quite interesting

mirtle James Mirtle
Reimer's even strength save percentage is .934, quite a bit higher than Gustavsson's .914. With the Leafs not taking penalties, play Reimer.

Is he seriously suggesting that that's a meaningful statistic, and an appropriate way to determine who to start?  I understand that he doesn't like Gus, but that's completely ridiculous.

Anomalous stats are everywhere if you choose to look for them.

 

[bustaheims]

Interesting...

mirtle James Mirtle
Reimer's even strength save percentage is .934, quite a bit higher than Gustavsson's .914. With the Leafs not taking penalties, play Reimer.
2 minutes ago

mirtle: The only regular starters in the NHL ahead of Reimer's .934 right now are Elliott, Lundqvist, Halak, Thomas, Quick and Howard.

 

[bustaheims]

Is he seriously suggesting that that's a meaningful statistic, and an appropriate way to determine who to start?  I understand that he doesn't like Gus, but that's completely ridiculous.

Anomalous stats are everywhere if you choose to look for them.

Meaningful? Maybe not, but it certainly noteworthy, and I certainly wouldn't call it anomalous either, since, A) it represent the major of a goalie's playing time, B) it's pretty much where he was last season in the same category (.933 last year, 3rd for goalies with 20+ starts) and C) it's not coincidental that the best goalies in the league are among the best in 5 on 5 Sv% either. Reimer's been awful on the PK, there's no doubt about that (worst PK Sv% for any goalie with 10+ starts), but, part of that is on the PK unit as well. 5 on 5, the number show he's been the better goalie, and by a fair amount. The difference in 5 on 5 Sv% there represents roughly a goal every other game.

 

[Kin]

Reimer's been awful on the PK, there's no doubt about that (worst PK Sv% for any goalie with 10+ starts), but, part of that is on the PK unit as well.

But, I'm assuming, that means that Gus has a significantly higher PK SV% and he's doing it with basically the same PK unit.

I'm with you that it's not a meaningless number but I wonder how much it should factor into decisions about who plays. The team is still going to take penalties and if Gus is significantly better during them and still competent 5 on 5 I'm not sure that there's a big edge either way in breaking down the numbers.

 

[bustaheims]

But, I'm assuming, that means that Gus has a significantly higher PK SV% and he's doing it with basically the same PK unit.

He does, as his PK Sv% is 77 points higher, but, despite having played more than 500 more total minutes than Reimer (finding the situational break down for goalies is difficult), he's only faced 5 more shots on the PK. Gustavsson has certainly benefited more from the team's recent stretch of discipline, so, it's not necessarily unfair to say the PK unit in front of Gustavsson has played better than the one in front of Reimer.

I'm with you that it's not a meaningless number but I wonder how much it should factor into decisions about who plays. The team is still going to take penalties and if Gus is significantly better during them and still competent 5 on 5 I'm not sure that there's a big edge either way in breaking down the numbers.

I'll grant that, I just don't feel it should be dismissed as easily as Strangelove wants it to be.

 

[Zee]

Interesting...

mirtle James Mirtle
Reimer's even strength save percentage is .934, quite a bit higher than Gustavsson's .914. With the Leafs not taking penalties, play Reimer.
2 minutes ago

mirtle: The only regular starters in the NHL ahead of Reimer's .934 right now are Elliott, Lundqvist, Halak, Thomas, Quick and Howard.

Start Reimer, as soon as the Leafs take a penalty put Gustavsson in net.  Sort of like a relief pitcher.  Leafs revolutionize the goaltending position.

 

[Strangelove]

Reimer's been awful on the PK, there's no doubt about that (worst PK Sv% for any goalie with 10+ starts), but, part of that is on the PK unit as well.

But, I'm assuming, that means that Gus has a significantly higher PK SV% and he's doing it with basically the same PK unit.

I'm with you that it's not a meaningless number but I wonder how much it should factor into decisions about who plays. The team is still going to take penalties and if Gus is significantly better during them and still competent 5 on 5 I'm not sure that there's a big edge either way in breaking down the numbers.

I more or less agree with this.  The overarching picture shows that Gus has stopped pucks at a higher clip and let in less goals per game than Reimer, and he's won a lot more games as a result.  To play Reimer based on the extremely tenuous assumptions that Reimer will continue to be "better" (to whatever extent that's true) than Gus 5-on-5 and the Leafs will continue to not take penalties just isn't isn't reasonable.  Reimer might be the guy to run with, but that won't be because his save pct. is higher 5-on-5.

 

[Kin]

He does, as his PK Sv% is 77 points higher, but, despite having played more than 500 more total minutes than Reimer (finding the situational break down for goalies is difficult), he's only faced 5 more shots on the PK. Gustavsson has certainly benefited more from the team's recent stretch of discipline, so, it's not necessarily unfair to say the PK unit in front of Gustavsson has played better than the one in front of Reimer.

But there's a difference between performance while on the PK and the discipline that's seen the team take fewer penalties. That the team's improvement on the PK itself has come during the time that Gus has seized the starter's role probably isn't a coincidence.

 

[bustaheims]

But there's a difference between performance while on the PK and the discipline that's seen the team take fewer penalties. That the team's improvement on the PK itself has come during the time that Gus has seized the starter's role probably isn't a coincidence.

Maybe, but, it is sort of a chicken and egg debate.

 

[Kaberle15]

Start Reimer, as soon as the Leafs take a penalty put Gustavsson in net.  Sort of like a relief pitcher.  Leafs revolutionize the goaltending position.

;D

 

[leafplasma]

I am still under the impression that neither goalie is the clear number 1, because no one has played well enough to deserve that distinction, including Gus.  Up 4-1 on the road in the 3rd and Gus lets in two softies? 

This is still a free for all, so stick with the hot hand, and right now it belongs to Reimer who just had a shutout.

Hot hand are you kidding me?? Gus with 3 shutouts in the month of January and just missed a 4th against Minny with a late goal in the third.  There is no question who has the hot hand.  Not playing Gus Saturday would be a slap in the face to him.  Give Reimer one of the back to backs next week but right now no question you go with Gus Sat night.

 

[leafplasma]

Reimer's been awful on the PK, there's no doubt about that (worst PK Sv% for any goalie with 10+ starts), but, part of that is on the PK unit as well.

But, I'm assuming, that means that Gus has a significantly higher PK SV% and he's doing it with basically the same PK unit.

I'm with you that it's not a meaningless number but I wonder how much it should factor into decisions about who plays. The team is still going to take penalties and if Gus is significantly better during them and still competent 5 on 5 I'm not sure that there's a big edge either way in breaking down the numbers.

I would also assume that Gus being a reaction type goal versus Reims being more positional would bode better for Gus during the PK.  Just makes it harder in Reimers case to get square to the puck during the PP when quick passes are being made but allowing for the more desperate saves that Gus is good at.  Just a thought.

 

[Swede]

A clear  #1 ,who cares?
I like this situation, we have 2 young goaltenders both capable of being
the guy. The team has confidence in both kickers- yeehaw