How have the Leafs made out this off-season?

[#1PilarFan]

Burke turned an aging 80 point team into the youngest (or top 3 anyways) 80 point team. Gotta be worth something.

You're right, the Leafs are the second youngest team in the league. But that fact alone means very little. I think we can all agree, Edmonton's team has a ton more potential and better young players than the Leafs and yet their average age is 27.197 to the Leafs' 26.113. Average age does not equal potential.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

But are we taking what Burke said as an attempt to appease the Leaf fans, or an attempt to compliment and boost Rielly's confidence?

If it's the latter, I have no issue with it. If it's the former, I think he insults our intelligence.

I don't have an issue with it either way but there is a part of me that would wonder about the rationale for doing the latter in public. If, in the course of the many times the team talked to him before and after the draft, they'd said to Rielly that they consider him to be the best player in the draft or whatever that strikes me as having the exact same impact on him without any of the potentially increased expectations put on him by fans.

Good point.

 

[bustaheims]

Well, the problem with that is that I can't find any evidence to support what you're saying. What I can find, is pre-draft rankings that do not support this assertion. I'm not saying you're wrong or that I don't believe you, but from what I can find, I'm clearly not seeing the same things you're seeing.

Well, here's one:

http://flames.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=634023

Rielly is the No. 2 defenceman on Central Scouting's final list, trailing only Everett Silvertips defenceman Ryan Murray.

"Had he not been hurt, he probably would have challenged [Sarnia Sting right wing Nail Yakupov] for the No. 1 ranking," Central Scouting's Peter Sullivan said of Rielly. "He's got that [Bobby] Orr-ish quality about him. He can change the game in all areas of the ice, so I'm not surprised he stayed at No. 5 simply because of how good this kid is."

 

[maplesyrup]

Nice review!

 

[caver]

Burke turned an aging 80 point team into the youngest (or top 3 anyways) 80 point team. Gotta be worth something.

You're right, the Leafs are the second youngest team in the league. But that fact alone means very little. I think we can all agree, Edmonton's team has a ton more potential and better young players than the Leafs and yet their average age is 27.197 to the Leafs' 26.113. Average age does not equal potential.

Except that an aging team has reached or passed their best years, so those players are a known quantity. A young team can grow and improve. 

 

[iwas11in67]

...and hopefully in 3 or 4 years it'll be the Leafs versus Edmonton for the cup.

 

[Tigger]

I mean, I'm not ruling out that he has the best career, but he was ranked by most scouts in the bottom half of the top 10. So either Burke is lying or he has beliefs that run contrary to what the rest of the hockey world thinks - which would be fine if we had seen ANY tangible results from Burke's ill-conceived beliefs.

As for your second comment, what if Burke said that he thinks Reimer has the potential to be the best goaltender in the league? Would that bother you? If it wouldn't, can you see how statements like that would bother someone?

Well, for one, I don't know that we can say much about the Leafs drafting under Burke yet and he's had some good drafts in the past. As Busta noted there were significant comments about Rielly's skill and ability prior to the draft that indicated his potential from those inside the hockey world, it wasn't out of left field or anything. Personally I've liked more of the choices they've made than I've not liked up to now.

Funny, I remember some Leaf comments about the draft, that they might draft by positional need rather than best player available ( something they said they don't normally do ) and I have a hunch they were talking about Galchenyuk there but that would still lend to the idea that Rielly was Burke's guy. Morrison didn't completely agree with Burke after the draft saying 'they had him ranked really high' and couldn't pass on him but didn't say he was his top choice.

All in all, I don't really have a reason not to believe Burke and if you don't agree with him that's fine, in the end he's the guy they picked regardless and we'll see how it shakes out.

As far as how I would react if Burke said something like that, well the lawyer in me ( that little evil bastard ) would say that 'potential' is a kind of nebulous word that leaves achievement up to the player. It wouldn't bother me, though I might not agree with it, and if it bothered others I guess I could see why but I'd urge a more dispassionate perspective as Burke, or any other GM, have a job to sell the game as best they can and we can recognize that without losing a lot of sleep over it.

 

[Corn Flake]

Yeah. I mean, when you look at the Leafs roster from when he took over . . . the only players from that roster than have been significant NHL contributors since Burke took over are Grabovski, Kulemin (if he can return to form), Schenn, Kaberle and Antropov. The 4 goaltenders that split the Leafs net that season have seen a total of 3 NHL games in the last 2 NHL seasons - all from Martin Gerber - and all of 9 since being purged from the Leafs' organization. Of the players Burke moved out, only Antropov has put up a 20 goal season or a 40+ point season since leaving the team. And, the only notable players to come through the farm system onto other NHL rosters - Stalberg, Stralman and Tlusty. Heck, even the Leafs only really have Reimer, Gunnarsson and Frattin to show for what was in the system at the time (Holzer and Komarov may be added to the list, but, we're talking about guys who are likely to be a bottom pairing defenceman and a 4th line forward, respectively).

When Burke came in, there wasn't much to work with. JFJ left things in a mess, with no real high level prospects and an older roster, and Fletcher came in and muddied the situation in his brief time in charge. While I'll agree that the results Burke has seen have been underwhelming, I'm not sure I'd agree about what he's built (in an overall sense). The current roster is more talented, the farm system appears to be better and the team appears to be on the upswing. There are bright spots on the team now - that's not something I'm sure could be said before Burke took over.

*slow clap*

This is what I think people have to remember when we get all bent out of shape about how long this thing is taking.  Burke is trying to stock a franchise that was near-empty from the bottom all the way to the top.  A few pieces here and there were good - as you pointed out - but nowhere near what a team close to competing can get away with.  So usually when a team needs that kind of work put in, what is at the top is the last to find success.

The idea of having little to work with somehow being a clean slate and an advantage... to me that's what an expansion team starts with, and nobody expects an expansion team to compete for at least 4-5 years.  Given your players noted above, the Leafs really weren't all that far off from that.

Should be be upset at Burke for over promising and under delivering?  Maybe, but IMO, a lot of folks highly critical of him often say they don't listen to his rhetoric but will point to it right away when a reason to be mad is needed, because when you look at the team when he took over, you can't really say it's been long enough to turn that pile of rotten eggs into a playoff contender.

 

[Kin]

Burke turned an aging 80 point team into the youngest (or top 3 anyways) 80 point team. Gotta be worth something.

You're right, the Leafs are the second youngest team in the league. But that fact alone means very little. I think we can all agree, Edmonton's team has a ton more potential and better young players than the Leafs and yet their average age is 27.197 to the Leafs' 26.113. Average age does not equal potential.

Except that an aging team has reached or passed their best years, so those players are a known quantity. A young team can grow and improve.

Except I think TPF makes a good point. Average age is a metric that sort of assumes that a team's future success is as much tied to the age of their 4th line as it is to the age of the team's 1st line. If a team has a couple of 35+ players in minor supporting rules it adds to their average age but because players like that tend to be replaceable their age doesn't really reflect on a team's future pursuits.

Having a bunch of "meh" players under 25 doesn't mean a ton.

 

[Kin]

If anyone's interested, since the 91-92 season there have been 9(Ottawa, San Jose, Anaheim, Florida, Columbus, Nashville, Atlanta, Minnesota and Tampa) new expansion teams. Of those 9 teams, five of those teams made the playoffs within four seasons, four of those teams won playoff rounds in their first four seasons and three of them won playoff series within their first three seasons.

 

[hockeyfan1]

If anyone's interested, since the 91-92 season there have been 9(Ottawa, San Jose, Anaheim, Florida, Columbus, Nashville, Atlanta, Minnesota and Tampa) new expansion teams. Of those 9 teams, five of those teams made the playoffs within four seasons, four of those teams won playoff rounds in their first four seasons and three of them won playoff series within their first three seasons.

That is precisely why many people are not too impressed with the Leafs accomplishments to date, as towards failing to having eked themselves into the playoffs, as a  last-place playoff contender, at the very least.

Step-by-step, a yearly improvement inching closer to the above goal.  This is what many of us had hoped we would eventually be seeing with this Leafs team.

How could Burke have expected the players he signed contracts to -- Connelly, Lombardi, Komisarek, Armstrong (since gone) to name a few -- with their history of career injuries, lead the Leafs to 'the promised land'?  These are definitely not one's 'go-to' players.  Roster fill-ins, yes, but the one one actually expects to carry the load?  There was already something somewhat slightly illogical to this concept, none more evidenced by how the team fared throughout the previous recent seasons.

At least, there have been some pluses under Burke's tenure, as well as the negatives that still remain.

The hope for the Leafs would be the 'potential' of their draft picks; younger players from the farm who have a chance to showcase their worth; possible free-agent signings to further bolster the
roster, and a better system as well as greater playing improvement from the holdovers.

 

[Corn Flake]

If anyone's interested, since the 91-92 season there have been 9(Ottawa, San Jose, Anaheim, Florida, Columbus, Nashville, Atlanta, Minnesota and Tampa) new expansion teams. Of those 9 teams, five of those teams made the playoffs within four seasons, four of those teams won playoff rounds in their first four seasons and three of them won playoff series within their first three seasons.

Minnesota - went to the semi finals in their 3rd year, have only been in the post season twice since then, losing in the first round.  For all the accolades Lemaire gets, they had one fluke/miracle/lucky run.

Sens - took 5 years to make the post season. made playoffs for 6 years after that (only won a round twice and we all know why that was)

BJ's - 7 years to reach playoffs.. we know the rest of the story.

Preds - 6 years to reach playoffs and have remained consistently in the hunt with one exception since.

Sharks - 3rd year in, then were in and out until having similar success to Ottawa... good at making it in and going mostly nowhere.

Tampa - made playoffs in their 4th year, then spent the next 6 out of them.

Thrashers - 7 years to reach the playoffs

Florida - finals in year 3, 2 1st round exits in next 4 years, then 10 out of it.

Anaheim - playoffs year 4, 1 other playoff appearance. finals in year 10.

Those examples don't really jump out and suggest that "wow Burke is doing a worse job than the last 9 expansion teams because he hasn't made the playoffs in 4 tries.  Really, only San Jose got in the show and kept on going as they were in the playoffs 3 of the 5 seasons after they first got in.... so I'll give you one team of 8 who pulled it off.

If we can take anything from expansion examples, its that the teams who took a bit longer have had more consistent success in terms of making the post season.. ie: Nashville, etc, and the one cup win of that bunch (Tampa) in their first decade in existence took 11 years to build a winner from scratch with one early playoff appearance.

Simply making the playoffs did not demonstrate and sort of long term success.  Me? As painful as it is to wait, if the wait means the good times are much longer lasting then it is worth it.

 

[#1PilarFan]

I think that comparing the Leafs to an expansion team is really disingenuous. Burke inherited guys like Kulemin, Grabovski, Gunarsson, Schenn, etc. You don't inherit young players like that when you're an expansion team. It's just not a comparable situation.

Even with that comparison though, Burke doesn't stack up favourably.

 

[#1PilarFan]

Rielly is the No. 2 defenceman on Central Scouting's final list, trailing only Everett Silvertips defenceman Ryan Murray.

"Had he not been hurt, he probably would have challenged [Sarnia Sting right wing Nail Yakupov] for the No. 1 ranking," Central Scouting's Peter Sullivan said of Rielly. "He's got that [Bobby] Orr-ish quality about him. He can change the game in all areas of the ice, so I'm not surprised he stayed at No. 5 simply because of how good this kid is."

Interesting read for sure, but the CSS didn't even rank him the #1 defenseman.

So, without wanting to be bogged down in this argument I'll finish with this; consensus was that Yakupov was the top pick and Rielly was anywhere from 4th to 9th. So there is a disconnet between what Burke is saying and reality.

 

[#1PilarFan]

As far as how I would react if Burke said something like that, well the lawyer in me ( that little evil bastard ) would say that 'potential' is a kind of nebulous word that leaves achievement up to the player. It wouldn't bother me, though I might not agree with it, and if it bothered others I guess I could see why but I'd urge a more dispassionate perspective as Burke, or any other GM, have a job to sell the game as best they can and we can recognize that without losing a lot of sleep over it.

Wins, Tigger, sell hockey. Nonsense does not.

 

[bustaheims]

Interesting read for sure, but the CSS didn't even rank him the #1 defenseman.

So, without wanting to be bogged down in this argument I'll finish with this; consensus was that Yakupov was the top pick and Rielly was anywhere from 4th to 9th. So there is a disconnet between what Burke is saying and reality.

Well, you have to remember, those rankings are based on Rielly's injured season, whereas Burke's comments and the comments from the guy from CSS are based on what they feel about where he would have been had he been healthy all season. You're not going to see Rielly up there in the pre-draft rankings, because of the injury, but that doesn't mean a number of the scouts who created those rankings don't think that A) a healthy Rielly could have been the top ranked defenceman in the draft or B) a healthy Rielly could have been the top ranked player in the draft. The fact that he remained so high in the rankings even after missing 2/3 of the season shows just how highly he was thought of.

 

[Tigger]

As far as how I would react if Burke said something like that, well the lawyer in me ( that little evil bastard ) would say that 'potential' is a kind of nebulous word that leaves achievement up to the player. It wouldn't bother me, though I might not agree with it, and if it bothered others I guess I could see why but I'd urge a more dispassionate perspective as Burke, or any other GM, have a job to sell the game as best they can and we can recognize that without losing a lot of sleep over it.

Wins, Tigger, sell hockey. Nonsense does not.

I'd offer the Leafs record since the last lockout in response.

 

[Kin]

I think that comparing the Leafs to an expansion team is really disingenuous. Burke inherited guys like Kulemin, Grabovski, Gunarsson, Schenn, etc. You don't inherit young players like that when you're an expansion team. It's just not a comparable situation.

Even with that comparison though, Burke doesn't stack up favourably.

Well, yeah. I was just pointing out that a good number of expansion teams have been able to cobble together playoff appearances during their building years. The fact that the Leafs with their budget and the assets they had were in no ways an expansion team is just sort of the icing on that cake.

But it's kind of moot anyway. When I said the team was a blank slate the idea was to look at what Burke's put together since then because he had no real impediments to doing what he wanted to do. That's the context in which I find him wanting.

 

[Corn Flake]

I think that comparing the Leafs to an expansion team is really disingenuous. Burke inherited guys like Kulemin, Grabovski, Gunarsson, Schenn, etc. You don't inherit young players like that when you're an expansion team. It's just not a comparable situation.

For sure, and the expansion suggestion was only intended to be very loosely compared, but then we started diving in. 

Even with that comparison though, Burke doesn't stack up favourably.

Actually it kind of does based on what I broke down below.  The catch being the Leafs still have yet to make it, but as suggested, sneaking in doesn't really mean a lot.  A long run of playoffs and maybe a significant run or two does.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Rielly is the No. 2 defenceman on Central Scouting's final list, trailing only Everett Silvertips defenceman Ryan Murray.

"Had he not been hurt, he probably would have challenged [Sarnia Sting right wing Nail Yakupov] for the No. 1 ranking," Central Scouting's Peter Sullivan said of Rielly. "He's got that [Bobby] Orr-ish quality about him. He can change the game in all areas of the ice, so I'm not surprised he stayed at No. 5 simply because of how good this kid is."

Interesting read for sure, but the CSS didn't even rank him the #1 defenseman.

So, without wanting to be bogged down in this argument I'll finish with this; consensus was that Yakupov was the top pick and Rielly was anywhere from 4th to 9th. So there is a disconnet between what Burke is saying and reality.

I don't know if this is beyond your, or anyone else here's, grasp, but does anyone know how accurate the CSS rankings pre-draft are to the final draft order usually?