How to know when to stop tanking?

[Kin]

I agree with all of this (and the rest of what you mentioned, Nik). Just saying it wouldn't bother me to keep Kadri if there are no takers and the contract talks shake out on the cheaper side.

I agree with this. I like Kadri a lot and think it would be fun to see him next year get to maybe play with a Marner(or Laine?). The contract right now is the big question mark though and I suppose a part of me wonders how comfortable Shanahan will be in giving Kadri the sort of deal he might want given what went on last year.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Given the choice, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Babcock prefers keeping Bozak over Kadri. This is strictly opinion/hunch, but I'm just not convinced that Babcock is a big Kadri fan, regardless of what he feeds the media. If the Leafs acquire one of Matthews/Stamkos, I think they would be happy running with Bozak as 2C and letting Kadri go. It might make it easier to move JVR as well as there would be less pressure on the young guys to play center, and more opportunity on the wing.

There are numerous Bozak debates, but he's a veteran player at this point who can contribute on both offense and defense, and he can win draws. Having Matthews/Stamkos, Bozak, Froese/Holland down the middle would be more than fine next season, while allowing the Leafs to parlay Kadri and JVR, into important pieces. In this case perhaps in trade for D rather than more shots at a #1C (since we would already have one).

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don't think that's the assumption exactly. I think the assumption is that of Marner/Nylander and an as yet unknown #1 type who, even if not Matthews, is at least on the sort of Kopitar/Toews/Backstrom level that you'll have at least two players who will be above Kadri on the depth chart when it's all said and done. Marner may not be one of them, no, but I think the Leafs should at least be looking at that as the ideal situation. 

I think that's sort of the same thing, we'd be trading Kadri under the assumption that we'll acquire another 1C down the line. I think we've learned pretty well over the last almost decade how difficult that is. As of right now I feel like the Leafs should be planning their future around Nylander being a 1C and Kadri being a 2C. And as a fairly big fan of both those players I don't really think that would be such a terrible situation. If something better comes around, whether that's drafting Matthews this June or something a little later down the road, then you make the adjustment then.

Now I don't think that Kadri is 100% untouchable or anything, but like Gardiner I don't really see any trade situation where I'd be comfortable moving him. If someone offers a top-10 draft pick or a prospect with 1C potential, then absolutely take a good look at it. But is that a realistic expectation?

 

[herman]

Three fairly possible scenarios make the decision on Kadri really simple, listed in order of most to least likely:
1) Kadri wants 6+M AAV over 4+ years
2) We successfully woo Steven Stamkos
3) We draft Auston Matthews

Bonus 4th, but super not likely:
4) Someone offers a 1st round pick for Bozak


I can see the Kadri decision getting wrapped up only after Stamkos decides.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Three fairly possible scenarios make the decision on Kadri really simple, listed in order of most to least likely:
1) Kadri wants 6+M AAV over 4+ years
2) We successfully woo Steven Stamkos
3) We draft Auston Matthews

I think that's fair. I don't know how difficult the Kadri contract negotiations will be though. He's 25 years old now so he's basically at the point where what you see if what you get. So we won't have the same issue as with Rielly where we're not sure what we're paying for. As long as there's term I think the two sides will amicably arrive at somewhere between $5-5.5mil per.

 

[Kin]

I think that's sort of the same thing, we'd be trading Kadri under the assumption that we'll acquire another 1C down the line. I think we've learned pretty well over the last almost decade how difficult that is. As of right now I feel like the Leafs should be planning their future around Nylander being a 1C and Kadri being a 2C. And as a fairly big fan of both those players I don't really think that would be such a terrible situation. If something better comes around, whether that's drafting Matthews this June or something a little later down the road, then you make the adjustment then.

I guess where I'd quibble a bit over that is the idea that it's an "assumption" that you'd eventually get that top of the league sort of center. To me that's less of an assumption than it is the whole point of the rebuilding exercise. You hang around the bottom of the league until you get that guy. You don't jump the gun and assume anyone's going to be that until he's on the team and essentially doing it. 

 

[Tigger]

Yeah, while I like what I'm seeing with Nylander he's pretty far from a 1C. Now, should the Leafs get a real good offer, especially on defence, yeah you could move Nazem but I think they should hold back on that while they see what they have with other players. If that means a short contract might be the best way to go, so be it.

 

[skrackle]

The Leafs will need to have some high picks, ideally #1 picks over the next 2 or 3 years. They will also need to draft very well with the picks they end up getting, through all rounds. Just get the most out of the draft, is what it comes down to.

The Leafs will need to identify which prospects are going to be players for them and ship out those that won't be while they still have high value. This is where it gets tricky. It takes an expert eye to decide whether a prospect just needs more development, or he just doesn't have it. As a fan, just breathe deep, because there may be some shocking names on the trade list.

There are so many random elements. Try playing the NHL draft simulator as an exercise in frustration.

I am hopeful that the Leafs now have the management team to get enough of those decisions right and the team will emerge as a contender in a few years. That will be the time to stop tanking.

 

[Highlander]

I disagree corsie, I think with the 12 picks this year, even if we get 3 NHL players out of it, then the tank is officially over.  I actually think the tank was over when they called up the cavalry of young players (whom Babs now says were season ready at camp). Listen we will have Nylander, Brown, Hyman, Soshnikov, Kapinan on the offense next year with the likelyhood of Gauthier as well.  On defense we will have Loov, Valiev at least on the back end, perhaps Percy. So that leaves the rest of the prospects including the likes of Timashov and the rest playing for the Marlies and the 3 or 4 out of the 12 that will be picked. The cupboard is becoming full and fast, after they trade JVR, Bozak and perhaps Lupul then more prospects, picks become available. You can only contract 50 guys, so the guys filling the cupboard are going to become more elite. So the tank is finished for all intents and purposes. And don't forget Babs and Lou hate to lose! 8)

 

[McGarnagle]

I disagree corsie, I think with the 12 picks this year, even if we get 3 NHL players out of it, then the tank is officially over.

This kind of logic doesn't make sense to me. You can't just declare your organization to be competitive based upon quantity of picks and poor finishes. There's so many moving parts with this team in such a preliminary stage of rebuild, its impossible to say that the leafs now have a quality foundation.

 

[dappleganger]

I think that it is important to keep some players around like JVR during the rebuild - skill, size, and seems to buy in very much to the concepts Babcock is trying to introduce.
My feeling is that Kadri is never going to be a number one and wants to be paid like one. While Gardiner has all too often displayed the hockey sense of a fungus gnat (granted his play under Babcock has improved which is why I'm in favour of striking while the iron is hot).
Realistically they are all of similar age and may not fit into the window of the rebuild and could be dealt for the right price. I don't think any of the 3 are untouchable.

The fact that JVR is the most valuable right now is exactly why he should be dealt. A rebuild can't just be about trading away players who aren't very good and will bring back unimpressive returns.

What do you think of targeting any of these players in a trade for JVR?

ANA - Hampus Lindholm
NAS - Mattias Ekholm
WAS - Dmitry Orlov
NJD - Adam Larsson

 

[skrackle]

I disagree corsie, I think with the 12 picks this year, even if we get 3 NHL players out of it, then the tank is officially over.  I actually think the tank was over when they called up the cavalry of young players (whom Babs now says were season ready at camp). Listen we will have Nylander, Brown, Hyman, Soshnikov, Kapinan on the offense next year with the likelyhood of Gauthier as well.  On defense we will have Loov, Valiev at least on the back end, perhaps Percy. So that leaves the rest of the prospects including the likes of Timashov and the rest playing for the Marlies and the 3 or 4 out of the 12 that will be picked. The cupboard is becoming full and fast, after they trade JVR, Bozak and perhaps Lupul then more prospects, picks become available. You can only contract 50 guys, so the guys filling the cupboard are going to become more elite. So the tank is finished for all intents and purposes. And don't forget Babs and Lou hate to lose! 8)

I'd like you to be right and me wrong, but I don't think it will be that simple.

I put almost no stock in what the Leafs are doing on the ice right now. Prospects are getting a taste of the NHL and that's about it. Playoff teams are resting/coasting into the playoffs and the young Leafs are playing with no pressure. If the Leafs beat Tampa or whoever on a certain night it really means nothing in the big picture, but it is a stepping stone for the young guys.

Yes, the Leafs are starting to assemble a nice collection of young players. Most of these guys have not played a game in the NHL yet. How many will make it? How many will be the driving force to the Leafs winning a Stanley Cup?

It's all a big unknown right now. It's the start of a process that will most likely take years to come to fruition.

 

[Bullfrog]

I'd like you to be right and me wrong, but I don't think it will be that simple.

I put almost no stock in what the Leafs are doing on the ice right now. Prospects are getting a taste of the NHL and that's about it. Playoff teams are resting/coasting into the playoffs and the young Leafs are playing with no pressure. If the Leafs beat Tampa or whoever on a certain night it really means nothing in the big picture, but it is a stepping stone for the young guys.

Yes, the Leafs are starting to assemble a nice collection of young players. Most of these guys have not played a game in the NHL yet. How many will make it? How many will be the driving force to the Leafs winning a Stanley Cup?

It's all a big unknown right now. It's the start of a process that will most likely take years to come to fruition.

I think there are very, very few teams that are in any way resting at all. Most playoff positions and spots are undecided.

 

[skrackle]

I'd like you to be right and me wrong, but I don't think it will be that simple.

I put almost no stock in what the Leafs are doing on the ice right now. Prospects are getting a taste of the NHL and that's about it. Playoff teams are resting/coasting into the playoffs and the young Leafs are playing with no pressure. If the Leafs beat Tampa or whoever on a certain night it really means nothing in the big picture, but it is a stepping stone for the young guys.

Yes, the Leafs are starting to assemble a nice collection of young players. Most of these guys have not played a game in the NHL yet. How many will make it? How many will be the driving force to the Leafs winning a Stanley Cup?

It's all a big unknown right now. It's the start of a process that will most likely take years to come to fruition.

I think there are very, very few teams that are in any way resting at all. Most playoff positions and spots are undecided.

True, but when you see the Leafs on your schedule down the stretch, you likely pencil in a win. It will come back to bite you if you aren't quite ready to play that night.

 

[herman]

I put almost no stock in what the Leafs are doing on the ice right now. Prospects are getting a taste of the NHL and that's about it.

I agree with this. This is where I was in preseason; all the games we see the youth in this season are essentially an extended training camp -- for some of the vets too.

 

[Kin]

I disagree corsie, I think with the 12 picks this year, even if we get 3 NHL players out of it, then the tank is officially over.

This kind of logic doesn't make sense to me. You can't just declare your organization to be competitive based upon quantity of picks and poor finishes. There's so many moving parts with this team in such a preliminary stage of rebuild, its impossible to say that the leafs now have a quality foundation.

Exactly. I can't imagine any team appearing serious about a rebuild, as Shanahan and Co. have, and then deciding to put a stop to it based on the idea that potentially having a good group in place is the same thing as having that good group in place. Far too many people are looking at Mitch Marner and saying "he sort of plays like Patrick Kane, therefore he'll be as good as Patrick Kane, therefore the Leafs should already be planning on him being as least as good as Patrick Kane!"

The Leafs don't need "NHL players" right now and even if they did the likelihood is that they won't know what they have from the upcoming draft until three or four years down the road. Stopping the current course of action because of something you might have 3 or 4 years from now would be the worst kind of impatience.

 

[Highlander]

I am not advocating anything of the sort. They have to continue on this road, I was only pointing out that as the cupboard (50 contracts) becomes full, they new prospects will have to be more elite in order to keep (as part of the 50).
So our overall prospect pool will continue to grow in quality. I am all for drafting and continuing what is turning this club around, and Ok Stamkos wouldnt hurt.

 

[Kin]

I am not advocating anything of the sort. They have to continue on this road, I was only pointing out that as the cupboard (50 contracts) becomes full, they new prospects will have to be more elite in order to keep (as part of the 50).
So our overall prospect pool will continue to grow in quality. I am all for drafting and continuing what is turning this club around, and Ok Stamkos wouldnt hurt.

You literally just said that you think the tank is over.

 

[Highlander]

there is a difference between a tank and an ongoing rebuild.

 

[McGarnagle]