mr grieves said:
After a decade of hearing Antropov, Stajan, Steen, Wellwood, and a bunch of others I've forgotten were coming in to reinvigorate the top 6, maybe take over for Sundin, probably dominate the league, I get the wisdom of this caution.
I think that caution probably comes less from the fact that Antro and Stajan didn't become superstars and more from situations like Steen's where the people running the team felt the need to make a snap judgement on young talent before they established themselves out of a misplaced sense of urgency.
mr grieves said:
Have you looked at the comparables for Nylander as an 18yo in the SHL and AHL, a 19 yo in the AHL? Marner's D+1? Barring catastrophic injury, players at their level don't just flame out at the NHL level. I found 1 or 2 guys in the OHL who scored about at Marner's rate and never stuck in the NHL, but they weren't drafted until the 4th round... So, unless I screwed up my filters on Eliteprospects, there's virtually zero precedent for them being busts.
I'm also a bit confused about what we're doing during this at least a full season that we're looking to see if a core of Matthews, Marner, Nylander, etc. is any good. What would constitute "taking the next step"? They've already shipped out the pillars of the old core (but its youngest, cheapest piece in JvR) so there's not much else to tear down, they seem to moving to bury the last terrible long contract (Lupul), and, most tellingly, they've locked in two pieces (Kadri, Rielly), so it certainly seems they're starting to build something.
I think that's fair. They're done with the tear down. Now it's the building. And I've lived in Toronto long enough that when you're building a big building you start with the foundation, not the fixtures on the penthouse bathroom.
We're probably not going to see any moves like what the Team did with Nylander last year, where he was clearly good enough for the NHL and would have helped the team but he was sent down so that the Team could bottom out. That phase is probably done.
What we're probably going to see this year is experimentation and implementation. It's not enough that Marner/Nylander/Matthews are good, or just avoid being outright busts, it's about seeing how they fit into the roles Babcock wants them to play and their capability for growth within those roles. Furthermore we get to see how these talents mesh. If Marner's slated for the wing, how does he play with Matthews? Or Kadri? Is Nylander a Center? If not, is Kadri really a good enough #2?
Pittsburgh's season should be the ultimate testament to the reality that you can't just throw together any group of players, no matter how talented, and get great results. You have to design lines and strategies that speak to the unique talents you have. If Marner and Matthews are gangbusters together, who's the ideal 3rd piece who not only complements what they're doing but maybe makes up for some of their deficiencies? That's what Chicago did in adding Hossa. That's what the Leafs should be looking to emulate.
The team right now has massive holes and no easy fixes for them. This year will give the team more information there as well. Can Rielly grow into a real #1? Or does he not have that ceiling. If not, where do you find one? Can Bernier be a Cristobel Huet type, someone who can win enough to keep the seat warm for whatever young goalie you bring along? Or do you need to go out and get someone like that?
These are all big questions and there is no way to fast forward that beyond letting Babcock and the rest of the front office evaluate these guys in actual NHL games. The team is paying him a ton of money to coach. This year, he'll get to actually, you know, coach them.
The great thing about this is that there is no rush. There is no pressing need to start adding what should be the finishing touches before you even really know what it is you're building. No free agent, not even Stamkos, is good enough to change that.
If we're going to continue the building metaphor, there is a step between demolition and construction and that's design. I have an Uncle who works in property development and let me tell you, 90% of his complaints about his job are dealing with Architects wanting to tinker or dealing with how their initial blueprints don't really work and need to go back to the design process.
This year, the Leafs get to hit the drawing board and, sure, that's where big ideas are hatched but it's also where a lot of bad ideas happen. Where a lot gets erased and redrawn. What you don't want is to lock the team into anything major before there's a clearer picture of what they have to work with.
