How to know when to stop tanking?

[sneakyray]

Unlikely, but not impossible.  Slightly more likely IMO if they sign Stamkos, but even then they could easily move Kadri to the wing.

Well, very little is impossible, but it's so far down the unlikely scale that I'm confident saying that it's not happening - even if they sign Stamkos. Good teams have plenty of depth down the middle - including wingers that can move to C.

yeah thats my take on it too...they have a third line C signed for 4.5 long term who is still young and not too long ago was considered a possible first line talent.  If he is used as a 3rd line C he will be one hell of a third line C (offensively at least).

 

[Redleaf]

To me, it's a no brainer. If they sign Stamkos, I'd keep JVR over Kadri. That size on the wing he provides on one of the top two lines and PP is essential and size is defiantly something this team is lacking.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Centre depth of the teams remaining in the playoffs:

TB: Stamkos* (hurt of course, but he helped get them there), Johnson, Filppula
PIT: Crosby, Malkin, Bonino** (Phil's new best friend)
STL: Lehtera, Stastny, Steen
DAL: Seguin* (ditto), Spezza, Eakin
NAS: Johansen, Fisher, Riberio
SJ: Thornton, Couture, Marleau/Pavelski

You need 3 solid, solid NHL centres/lines to do anything in the playoffs these days. Having Kadri slot into our 3C spot would accomplish just that.

 

[Highlander]

They will get a lot more for JVR than Kadri, a top 10 for sure and perhaps a top 5.  Stamkos, Matthews, Kadri, this is our new mantra.

 

[Bullfrog]

Why do you think they'll get a lot more for JvR than Kadri? Almost identical career ppg, similar age, similar cap hits (for the next two seasons.) JvR's more of a goal-scorer and plays a different game

 

[ZBBM]

Centre depth of the teams remaining in the playoffs:

TB: Stamkos* (hurt of course, but he helped get them there), Johnson, Filppula
PIT: Crosby, Malkin, Bonino** (Phil's new best friend)
STL: Lehtera, Stastny, Steen
DAL: Seguin* (ditto), Spezza, Eakin
NAS: Johansen, Fisher, Riberio
SJ: Thornton, Couture, Marleau/Pavelski

You need 3 solid, solid NHL centres/lines to do anything in the playoffs these days. Having Kadri slot into our 3C spot would accomplish just that.

TOR: Stamkos, Matthews, Nylander

I'm moving Kadri to the wing before I stick Nylander there. I see Kadri playing the role Renberg used to.

Or, not likely but just maybe, you trade him.

Edit: for a good defenseman perhaps

 

[Al14]

Why do you think they'll get a lot more for JvR than Kadri? Almost identical career ppg, similar age, similar cap hits (for the next two seasons.) JvR's more of a goal-scorer and plays a different game

I agree, although Kadri hasn't lived up to his potential as the 7th overall draft pick, he is still young enough to find the consistency, and maturity, that is needed to become a top NHL player.

With his new contract, it's less of a gamble for the Leafs to keep him, however, if they were offered someone like Shattenkirk from St. Louis, I believe they would do the trade.

Keeping Kadri, or trading him, it will be a gamble at this point either way IMHO.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

TOR: Stamkos, Matthews, Nylander

I'm moving Kadri to the wing before I stick Nylander there. I see Kadri playing the role Renberg used to.

Or, not likely but just maybe, you trade him.

Edit: for a good defenseman perhaps

I think Kadri's style of play suits him better at C more than it does Nylander. Also, the one problem with having 3 very good centres is that you might run into the problem of there not being enough winger depth to properly compliment them. I think Kadri would produce better with 3rd line types than Nylander would (look at how Winnik and Santorelli fell off a cliff offensively). If the organization was 100% committed to keeping Nylander in the middle then I would move Stamkos to the wing before Kadri.

Also, I would just really want to see Nylander play with one of Stamkos or Matthews.

 

[herman]

Why do you think they'll get a lot more for JvR than Kadri? Almost identical career ppg, similar age, similar cap hits (for the next two seasons.) JvR's more of a goal-scorer and plays a different game

I agree, although Kadri hasn't lived up to his potential as the 7th overall draft pick, he is still young enough to find the consistency, and maturity, that is needed to become a top NHL player.

With his new contract, it's less of a gamble for the Leafs to keep him, however, if they were offered someone like Shattenkirk from St. Louis, I believe they would do the trade.

Keeping Kadri, or trading him, it will be a gamble at this point either way IMHO.

You just agreed that JvR and Kadri are comparable, but then said Kadri hasn't lived up to his 7th overall pick potential, even though his production matches JvR who was a 2nd overall pick

My point is that pick position doesn't matter in future trade considerations.

Also, Kadri is not really a gamble (especially on his new contract) as long as you don't expect him to be a top-5 1C in the league. What he is is a feisty two-way pivot with scoring upside and distribution creativity that can match up against other top lines and still drive play the right way with superior zone-entry skills.

JvR is a more attractive trade option because he's cheaper and on a shorter (less risky) contract for first-line scoring.

 

[herman]

I think Kadri's style of play suits him better at C more than it does Nylander. Also, the one problem with having 3 very good centres is that you might run into the problem of there not being enough winger depth to properly compliment them. I think Kadri would produce better with 3rd line types than Nylander would (look at how Winnik and Santorelli fell off a cliff offensively). If the organization was 100% committed to keeping Nylander in the middle then I would move Stamkos to the wing before Kadri.

Also, I would just really want to see Nylander play with one of Stamkos or Matthews.

I think that's a fantastic observation.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I think that's a fantastic observation.

The Winnik/Santorelli thing was something I've been meaning to look into for awhile.

Over the past 2 seasons Winnik's P/60 with Kadri is 2.15, and without it's 1.12. That's basically dropping from 1st line production to 4th line production. Winnik's time without Kadri would be largely based off his time with Pittsburgh last season, his time as a Leaf this season where he rarely played with Kadri, and his time with Washington this season. Now, obviously, his role in those situations was much different than when he played with Kadri in 14/15, but that's still a massive swing.

Same goes for Santorelli. Past 2 seasons with Kadri his P/60 is 2.35, without it's 1.20.

 

[herman]

I think that's a fantastic observation.

The Winnik/Santorelli thing was something I've been meaning to look into for awhile.

Over the past 2 seasons Winnik's P/60 with Kadri is 2.15, and without it's 1.12. That's basically dropping from 1st line production to 4th line production. Winnik's time without Kadri would be largely based off his time with Pittsburgh last season, his time as a Leaf this season where he rarely played with Kadri, and his time with Washington this season. Now, obviously, his role in those situations was much different than when he played with Kadri in 14/15, but that's still a massive swing.

Same goes for Santorelli. Past 2 seasons with Kadri his P/60 is 2.35, without it's 1.20.

They were my favourite line from the season that shall not be named. Kadri really established himself that year as a centre the coach could call upon to shutdown another team's scoring and chip in a few going the other way.

Kadri is the magic UFA booster. Park a 3rd line expiring contract on his wing and watch that trade value rise (Komarov, Winnik, Santorelli). He seems to work best with North-South cyclers, and gives them really good open looks because he can hold the puck just a little bit longer than most to find clean seams.

 

[bustaheims]

I agree, although Kadri hasn't lived up to his potential as the 7th overall draft pick, he is still young enough to find the consistency, and maturity, that is needed to become a top NHL player.

With his new contract, it's less of a gamble for the Leafs to keep him, however, if they were offered someone like Shattenkirk from St. Louis, I believe they would do the trade.

Keeping Kadri, or trading him, it will be a gamble at this point either way IMHO.

This was examined in-depth not that long ago, and shown to be completely inaccurate. His play and production have absolutely been in-line with what can be expected of a 7th overall pick when compared to other forwards drafted in the 4th-10th overall range - and, in fact, would put him among the top 1/3 of forwards drafted in that range. The only thing he hasn't lived up to is the unrealistic expectations some have placed on him.

 

[Redleaf]

I think Kadri's style of play suits him better at C more than it does Nylander. Also, the one problem with having 3 very good centres is that you might run into the problem of there not being enough winger depth to properly compliment them. I think Kadri would produce better with 3rd line types than Nylander would (look at how Winnik and Santorelli fell off a cliff offensively). If the organization was 100% committed to keeping Nylander in the middle then I would move Stamkos to the wing before Kadri.

Also, I would just really want to see Nylander play with one of Stamkos or Matthews.

I think that's a fantastic observation.

I think that would depend on who the other 2 third liners are. Nylander with Soshnikov and Hyman look pretty damn good together. Without Kadri, the other top 2 centres and 4 wingers are still top notch in Stamkos and Matthews with a combination of JVR, Marner, Komarov and perhaps Brown or Timashov or one of the 2 first rounders in this years draft. Either way this team is deeper up front that it has been in years. They just need to strengthen their D and goaltending.

 

[herman]

I think Kadri's style of play suits him better at C more than it does Nylander. Also, the one problem with having 3 very good centres is that you might run into the problem of there not being enough winger depth to properly compliment them. I think Kadri would produce better with 3rd line types than Nylander would (look at how Winnik and Santorelli fell off a cliff offensively). If the organization was 100% committed to keeping Nylander in the middle then I would move Stamkos to the wing before Kadri.

Also, I would just really want to see Nylander play with one of Stamkos or Matthews.

I think that's a fantastic observation.

I think that would depend on who the other 2 third liners are. Nylander with Soshnikov and Hyman look pretty damn good together. Without Kadri, the other top 2 centres and 4 wingers are still top notch in Stamkos and Matthews with a combination of JVR, Marner, Komarov and perhaps Brown or Timashov or one of the 2 first rounders in this years draft. Either way this team is deeper up front that it has been in years. They just need to strengthen their D and goaltending.

I'm not saying our D/G is championship caliber by any stretch, but I think having a deep and responsible forward corps makes a huge difference in the perception of defense and goaltending. We should always be looking to improve, but I don't know about going out of our way to secure specific established Defensemen or expensive goalies. Detroit did really well with their policy to cycle through cheap average goaltending and rely on their strength and depth in front, until they coughed it up for Howard.

At this juncture of the build, I'm pretty happy to roll with our existing D group, and run Bernier in a show-me year and take the lumps that might come from that for the higher draft position.

 

[ZBBM]

I think that's a fantastic observation.

The Winnik/Santorelli thing was something I've been meaning to look into for awhile.

Over the past 2 seasons Winnik's P/60 with Kadri is 2.15, and without it's 1.12. That's basically dropping from 1st line production to 4th line production. Winnik's time without Kadri would be largely based off his time with Pittsburgh last season, his time as a Leaf this season where he rarely played with Kadri, and his time with Washington this season. Now, obviously, his role in those situations was much different than when he played with Kadri in 14/15, but that's still a massive swing.

Same goes for Santorelli. Past 2 seasons with Kadri his P/60 is 2.35, without it's 1.20.

If that's the logic, and this really is Kadri's primary strength, then make him 4C and roll all 4 lines.  I agree with the original post saying you need 3 good Cs to truly contend.  But by that same logic you can't have the 3C there just to prop up stiffs -- the 3rd line ought to be a quality line.

Or, as I suggested, let him play wing with Nylander.  I really do see Kadri as having turned out a lot like Renberg -- not a great but a decent scorer and can dig pucks out of corners, can play in the dirty areas etc.

 

[bustaheims]

I'm not saying our D/G is championship caliber by any stretch, but I think having a deep and responsible forward corps makes a huge difference in the perception of defense and goaltending. We should always be looking to improve, but I don't know about going out of our way to secure specific established Defensemen or expensive goalies. Detroit did really well with their policy to cycle through cheap average goaltending and rely on their strength and depth in front, until they coughed it up for Howard.

Yeah. The important thing to remember about the defensive side of the puck is that it's very much a team game. You could have the 6 best defensemen in the world on your blueline, but if your forwards are defensively responsible, you're not going to have a good defensive team. If you have a group of defensively responsible forwards, you can get by pretty well with less established D. In terms of depth on the blueline, I actually feel like the Leafs are in a pretty good position at the moment. They're lacking a true #1 defenceman (or, if Rielly can take that next step, a #2), but, between Zaitsev, Gardiner, Carrick, Corrado, Marincin, and prospects like Loov, Dermott, Nielsen, Valiev, etc., I'd say the 2nd and 3rd pairings are in pretty good shape.

The future in net is more of a question. I'm not super confident about any of the prospects being able to be average to above average starters in the NHL (which is basically the minimum the team needs), and I don't think Bernier's reliable enough to invest in for the long-haul, either.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If that's the logic, and this really is Kadri's primary strength, then make him 4C and roll all 4 lines.  I agree with the original post saying you need 3 good Cs to truly contend.  But by that same logic you can't have the 3C there just to prop up stiffs -- the 3rd line ought to be a quality line.

I'm not sure what you mean by primary strength. I'm not saying that improving the players around him is his primary strength, but that his strengths as a player allow him to do that.

I also never implied that we should have stiffs on the 3rd line so Kadri can prop them up, just that the 3rd line wingers will likely be slightly less offensively inclined than the ones in the top-6. With that said, as Redleaf points out, the depth in our prospect pool means that our 3rd line players will still probably be pretty good. I wouldn't exactly hate a forward group of JVR-Stamkos-Marner / Kadri-Matthews-Brown / Hyman-Nylander-Soshnikov.

I still feel like Kadri is better suited in the middle though, but having a number of options will only benefit the team. Although I don't really think this Stamkos thing happens anyway so this will remain very hypothetical.

Or, as I suggested, let him play wing with Nylander.  I really do see Kadri as having turned out a lot like Renberg -- not a great but a decent scorer and can dig pucks out of corners, can play in the dirty areas etc.

This Renberg comparison is the 2nd strangest thing you've ever said regarding Kadri.

 

[Redleaf]

I have more faith in Bernier than most here. While I'm not going to say he's the answer in net long term just yet, I will say that I think he can rebound next season and make the decision to trade away valuable assets, in order to upgrade the goaltending position, a hard one.

 

[ZBBM]

If that's the logic, and this really is Kadri's primary strength, then make him 4C and roll all 4 lines.  I agree with the original post saying you need 3 good Cs to truly contend.  But by that same logic you can't have the 3C there just to prop up stiffs -- the 3rd line ought to be a quality line.

I'm not sure what you mean by primary strength. I'm not saying that improving the players around him is his primary strength, but that his strengths as a player allow him to do that.

I also never implied that we should have stiffs on the 3rd line so Kadri can prop them up, just that the 3rd line wingers will likely be slightly less offensively inclined than the ones in the top-6. With that said, as Redleaf points out, the depth in our prospect pool means that our 3rd line players will still probably be pretty good. I wouldn't exactly hate a forward group of JVR-Stamkos-Marner / Kadri-Matthews-Brown / Hyman-Nylander-Soshnikov.

I still feel like Kadri is better suited in the middle though, but having a number of options will only benefit the team. Although I don't really think this Stamkos thing happens anyway so this will remain very hypothetical.

Or, as I suggested, let him play wing with Nylander.  I really do see Kadri as having turned out a lot like Renberg -- not a great but a decent scorer and can dig pucks out of corners, can play in the dirty areas etc.

This Renberg comparison is the 2nd strangest thing you've ever said regarding Kadri.

Neither would I, and my main point is that there's no reason to move Nylander to the wing to accommodate Kadri at C.

Strange?  As opposed to making that claim w/o anything to back it up?