Jays Roster Discussion

[bustaheims]

That being said, he's a low .700 OPS hitter right now with below average fielding and base-running skills. I don't imagine the Jays would get anything of note for him.

You never know. I'm sure there are still a couple GMs out there who think he'll rebound on a better team, and are banking on his ability to be a "big game player," etc. All it really takes is one to really fall in love with the idea of adding Bautista to their lineup, and suddenly, the Jays are pulling in a quality prospect or two for him.

 

[Kin]

You never know. I'm sure there are still a couple GMs out there who think he'll rebound on a better team, and are banking on his ability to be a "big game player," etc. All it really takes is one to really fall in love with the idea of adding Bautista to their lineup, and suddenly, the Jays are pulling in a quality prospect or two for him.

Also, there are teams with legit playoff aspirations who are giving regular at-bats to guys performing worse at positions Bautista can play(The Yankees at 1B, for instance).

 

[sickbeast]

My prediction is that the Blue Jays will do nothing at the deadline.  All of their UFAs have had horrible seasons.  I don't think the fanbase will tolerate trading Bautista, plus I don't think they could get a legit prospect back for him.  I think they will largely keep the current team intact and then rebuild over the off season.  They're not going to trade guys like Happ/Stroman/Osuna/Sanchez/Donaldson because those guys are a big part of the future of this team.  Management is not going to throw the towel on both this season and next season.  That would be catastrophic.  We're not talking about Leafs fans here.  These are Blue Jays fans.  Extremely fickle.  Rogers Centre will be a ghost town.

 

[Andy007]

That being said, he's a low .700 OPS hitter right now with below average fielding and base-running skills. I don't imagine the Jays would get anything of note for him.

You never know. I'm sure there are still a couple GMs out there who think he'll rebound on a better team, and are banking on his ability to be a "big game player," etc. All it really takes is one to really fall in love with the idea of adding Bautista to their lineup, and suddenly, the Jays are pulling in a quality prospect or two for him.

I'd be more than happy with a quality prospect as a return, if he's willing to leave.

I'm not sure who Bautista supplants in NY though. Holliday and Frazier are both outperforming him (the latter albeit slightly but still).

 

[Kin]

They're not going to trade guys like Happ/Stroman/Osuna/Sanchez/Donaldson because those guys are a big part of the future of this team.

Happ is 34, only signed for one more season and has been solid but unspectacular this year. It's fairly unlikely he'll still be a part of a rebuilt Blue Jays team.

 

[Kin]

I'm not sure who Bautista supplants in NY though. Holliday and Frazier are both outperforming him (the latter albeit slightly but still).

Not to get into a protracted statistical discussion but OPS isn't a great single number offensive metric(even OPS+). I don't think too many people within the advanced metrics community think a point of SLG is the equivalent of a point of OBP.

 

[Andy007]

I'm not sure who Bautista supplants in NY though. Holliday and Frazier are both outperforming him (the latter albeit slightly but still).

Not to get into a protracted statistical discussion but OPS isn't a great single number offensive metric(even OPS+). I don't think too many people within the advanced metrics community think a point of SLG is the equivalent of a point of OBP.

What do you use though? Bautista's WAR is based on his OF ability but if you want him to be a 1B in NY then that value plummets. His OBP isn't that great either and it' just a little over .300 for the last month and a half.

It could be a decent acquisition in the hopes that a change of scenery or playoff chase might spark him, to be sure, but I don't think any team is going to give up a legit prospect for that chance. I think, if he moves, it will be for, at the most, a couple of low-mid range prospects and with Toronto eating a nice chunk of remaining $. 

 

[Andy007]

My prediction is that the Blue Jays will do nothing at the deadline.  All of their UFAs have had horrible seasons.  I don't think the fanbase will tolerate trading Bautista, plus I don't think they could get a legit prospect back for him.  I think they will largely keep the current team intact and then rebuild over the off season.  They're not going to trade guys like Happ/Stroman/Osuna/Sanchez/Donaldson because those guys are a big part of the future of this team.  Management is not going to throw the towel on both this season and next season.  That would be catastrophic.  We're not talking about Leafs fans here.  These are Blue Jays fans.  Extremely fickle.  Rogers Centre will be a ghost town.

Yeah, it's a pretty odd (for lack of a better word) situation that the team is in. Attendance is near the top of the MLB so from a business standpoint I can understand the reluctance to tear everything apart. You also can't tank and be saved by a Crosby or Matthews or McDavid either; these prospects take a lot more time and can be quite unpredictable. The farm system's best prospects are far away from the MLB too. So all of that combined with the division being wide open and the wild card dominated by mediocre teams makes the decision to blow it up that more difficult.

Personally I'd love to see major changes. This is a team that struggles to make basic, fundamental plays. They can't run, can't hit with RISP, are aging/injury prone and have been buoyed by a bullpen that has been surprisingly, and unrealistically, good. I just don't see any major changes happening.

 

[Captain Canuck]

I think if this team doesn't start moving out a few bodies and planning for the future it will be a major mistake that could set them back even further as far as competing again in the near future.

This team can't move runners or hit with RISP, they don't have a whole lot of speed on the basepaths, the defense has regressed a lot, injuries aside the starting pitching as a whole just hasn't been very good, etc, etc.

On the positive side Smoak has surprised and the bullpen hasn't been too bad.

What has been really crappy is the UFA players just being plain awful and making them worth next to nothing in a trade (Estrada, Liriano and Howell in particular).
I still think someone will make a fair offer for Bautista, but he needs to waive his no-trade clause to make that happen.
Really think you have to go beyond those guys and really think about moving guys like Happ, one of Barney/Goins, and maybe Donaldson too if you get an offer that blows your socks off.

I keep hearing people say they need to keep the core together for another run in 2018. Why? How will the team be any better than the 2017 version in that scenario? Personally I think the contention window has shut on the current group and its time to be smart and build for the future.

Next season should be the start of the transition as you can't get rid of all these contracts for older, declining players at once. The team will have to be built around guys like Martin, Tulo and Morales with younger, cheaper players with more upside filling in at some of the other positions.
There are a few guys on the roster now who should not be moved and become key pieces of the future such as Osuna, Stroman, and Sanchez. The jury is still out on Travis with all the injury history and the Dee Gordon rumblings it makes me wonder if he gets moved to a corner outfield spot in the near future. I'd consider keeping Pillar with his great glove, but just wish he would improve with the bat.

As far as losing casual fans go I could care less about those people. I just hope Jays management will feel the same way and do what is best for the team, not for the bottom line. If you do what is best for the team these casual fans will come crawling back eventually anyway to jump on the bandwagon.

 

[Kin]

What do you use though? Bautista's WAR is based on his OF ability but if you want him to be a 1B in NY then that value plummets.

Well, I think the best approach to take is to not look for any single metric but rather have a composite picture based on a number of them. "How well is player X hitting" isn't a one answer question in the way that WAR, say, makes a question of a player's total raw value fairly straightforward.

 

[Andy007]

What do you use though? Bautista's WAR is based on his OF ability but if you want him to be a 1B in NY then that value plummets.

Well, I think the best approach to take is to not look for any single metric but rather have a composite picture based on a number of them. "How well is player X hitting" isn't a one answer question in the way that WAR, say, makes a question of a player's total raw value fairly straightforward.

Yea, I agree with that. It would be interesting to see how well Bautista would perform in a market like NY, or some place similar. He just looks, to me, like he's close to being done, especially with the way he's been playing the last few months. I really don't see any team ponying up anything that great to acquire him.

 

[Kin]

I really don't see any team ponying up anything that great to acquire him.

Probably not but teams have been known to make bad decisions at deadline time.

 

[Darryl]

Anderson for Bagwell comes to mind. As does Slocumb for Varitek and Lowe.

Sent from my F3113 using Tapatalk

 

[Captain Canuck]

The Jays have traded AA 1B Ryan McBroom to the Yankees for INF/OF Rob Refsnyder. Refsnyder will report to Buffalo.

Refsnyder primarily plays 2B with some corner OF and 1B as well. Is he the short-term fill-in for Travis or a guy to replace one of Goins/Barney on the depth chart?

 

[bustaheims]

The Jays have traded AA 1B Ryan McBroom to the Yankees for INF/OF Rob Refsnyder. Refsnyder will report to Buffalo.

Refsnyder primarily plays 2B with some corner OF and 1B as well. Is he the short-term fill-in for Travis or a guy to replace one of Goins/Barney on the depth chart?

They also picked up Nick Tepesh for cash today. Feels like they're bringing in some MLB capable depth/AAA replacement pieces to fill the gaps after they move out some pieces.

 

[sickbeast]

I heard a rumor on TSN that the Jays are going to keep both Bautista and Estrada and sign them both to contract extensions.

 

[Captain Canuck]

I heard a rumor on TSN that the Jays are going to keep both Bautista and Estrada and sign them both to contract extensions.

Sounds like complete horse $hit to me! If you are fishing I'll bite! 

First off the Jays have 2 team options for Bautista for 2018 and 2019 so they already have him under control for the rest of his useful major league career if they so choose. I don't see the team electing to use those options, but at the same time Bautista can't be traded without his permission due to his 10 and 5 rights. If he doesn't allow the Jays to trade him this season I think they just elect not to pick up their option(s) on his contract and he becomes a UFA this fall.
One day Jose's name will be up on the Level of Excellence, but I don't get the sense that anyone in the organization feels he shouldn't be traded for sentimental reasons.

As for Estrada why not trade him at the deadline and then bring him back next year when he hits the UFA market if you want him that badly? It would be poor asset management NOT to take that approach with him if that is your intent.
I can't say for sure that BOTH Estrada and Liriano will be traded, but definitely feel that at least one of them will be.
The Jays would be foolish to bring Estrada back judging by the results of the last couple months. Think it is a combination of back issues and age, but believe his best days are behind him and can't help this team going forward.
Lastly on Estrada, I noticed he really went out of his way to sign a lot of autographs for Jays fans in Cleveland, could be his way of saying goodbye. He dodged the trade questions in his last interview, but his reaction to them and the look on his face were those of someone resigned to his fate.

 

[sickbeast]

No, Captain Canuck, they do not control Bautista for the next two seasons, those are mutual options meaning both sides have to agree to continue it year by year.  Either side has the right to walk away.  I highly doubt that Bautista is worth exactly the $18 million or whatever the contract says for next year.  There is a 99% chance that he is either gone or they will re-negotiate a new contract.

As for your opinions on the rumors, I could see both players having interest in signing an extension now.  It would prevent them from having to be uprooted.  Both of them love Toronto, Bautista in particular, he has been here a long time.  Neither one of them is going to bring back a major prospect.  I was just reading that they might get Glen Sparkman from KC for Liriano.  Neither Bautista nor Estrada will fetch more than that.  I think there is more value in keeping both players around.  Both should hopefully sign new reasonable contracts.  If the Jays can get both of them on one year deals it would be fantastic.  Then after the 2018 season they will have their options open.  My opinion is that Bautista should be made a Blue Jay for life.  He has earned it IMO.

 

[Captain Canuck]

I stand corrected on the options, but in any event the Jays will be the ones to decide what they want to do with Bautista. I still don't believe re-negotiating a contract with Jose is one of the possibilities. He was lucky to get his current deal with the team IMO. They didn't exactly rush out to sign him last off-season did they?

You are entitled to your opinions, I just don't see how bringing back older players who you can dump this season is particularly wise for the future. You aren't going to move the Martin and Tulo contracts and have a big decision to make on Donaldson in the next year.
I heard the Sparkman rumour and think that is dumb as well. If they wanted Sparkman that badly they could have kept him and gave up nothing. To give him back to KC and then trade for him a month later is poor asset management.
You saw what the 2017 team did and yet you want to bring back the same roster and expect a different result?
If this team doesn't start building with an eye to the future you will be left with an old expensive mediocre roster with no chance at the playoffs...been there, done that!

 

[sickbeast]

I stand corrected on the options, but in any event the Jays will be the ones to decide what they want to do with Bautista. I still don't believe re-negotiating a contract with Jose is one of the possibilities. He was lucky to get his current deal with the team IMO. They didn't exactly rush out to sign him last off-season did they?

You are entitled to your opinions, I just don't see how bringing back older players who you can dump this season is particularly wise for the future. You aren't going to move the Martin and Tulo contracts and have a big decision to make on Donaldson in the next year.
I heard the Sparkman rumour and think that is dumb as well. If they wanted Sparkman that badly they could have kept him and gave up nothing. To give him back to KC and then trade for him a month later is poor asset management.
You saw what the 2017 team did and yet you want to bring back the same roster and expect a different result?
If this team doesn't start building with an eye to the future you will be left with an old expensive mediocre roster with no chance at the playoffs...been there, done that!

I say buy low on both players.  At worst we will get similar results to what they are doing now.  However both could turn out to be incredible bargains, particularly Estrada.  He was an elite pitcher not long ago.  The Jays need to fill out the rotation and they are extremely thin in the outfield.  Bautista has fielded extremely well this year and he has had ok production at the plate.

It's not time to rebuild yet.  I understand your frustration, but the Jays' window is open for one more season while they still have Stroman/Donaldson/Sanchez/Pillar/Martin/Tulo.  It's just not time yet IMO.  Actually they face weak teams for the next three series, who knows what can happen.  They can throw in the towel now and get three lousy prospects like Sparkman, or they can keep going with what they have and see what happens.  IMO they should do a full scorched earth rebuild after next season if they continue to play poorly.  I don't think the time is right currently.