Kappi vs Johnsson

[Bullfrog]

So, to be clear, this question is whether the Leafs should keep Johnsson over a guy who is younger, faster, bigger, stronger, who can kill penalties and is a better scorer?

I said it in the ex-Leaf thread but honestly, Johnsson really hasn't done much to establish that he has a real spot on the team going forward. I compared him to Leipsic there and their numbers are virtually identical while being of a similar age and size and Leipsic could have been had for virtually nothing. The Leafs are going to have internal options there shortly(Grundstrom, Marchment) and Johnsson doesn't address any of the peripheral needs the team has. He's shown flashes of being a decent offensive player but those really aren't as rare as we might think.

I've got nothing against him, he's an ok place holder, but honestly if I could choose right now I'd rather have Leipsic in the lineup.

I agree with this take. I've been one of Johnsson's biggest supporters (and still am), but he's a fringe player at best. He's an Ennis and easily replaceable. Kapanen is miles ahead of Johnsson, primarily because of his versatility and his age.

The only thing I somewhat disagree with is your preference for Leipsic. I think he and Johnsson are basically interchangeable, yet Johnsson has shown a bit more at the NHL level. Objectively though, that's likely due to opportunity as you infer above. Their AHL production -- both outstanding -- is essentially identical.

 

[herman]

So, to be clear, this question is whether the Leafs should keep Johnsson over a guy who is younger, faster, bigger, stronger, who can kill penalties and is a better scorer?

I said it in the ex-Leaf thread but honestly, Johnsson really hasn't done much to establish that he has a real spot on the team going forward. I compared him to Leipsic there and their numbers are virtually identical while being of a similar age and size and Leipsic could have been had for virtually nothing. The Leafs are going to have internal options there shortly(Grundstrom, Marchment) and Johnsson doesn't address any of the peripheral needs the team has. He's shown flashes of being a decent offensive player but those really aren't as rare as we might think.

I've got nothing against him, he's an ok place holder, but honestly if I could choose right now I'd rather have Leipsic in the lineup.

I agree with this take. I've been one of Johnsson's biggest supporters (and still am), but he's a fringe player at best. He's an Ennis and easily replaceable. Kapanen is miles ahead of Johnsson, primarily because of his versatility and his age.

The only thing I somewhat disagree with is your preference for Leipsic. I think he and Johnsson are basically interchangeable, yet Johnsson has shown a bit more at the NHL level. Objectively though, that's likely due to opportunity as you infer above. Their AHL production -- both outstanding -- is essentially identical.

The main difference between Leipsic and Johnsson is their attention to detail. Leipsic produced handsomely on the scoresheet but had trouble gaining the coach's trust in tougher situations. Johnsson immediately became the coaching staff's favourite player because he was always focused on the assignment details in all three zones AND could produce at Leipsic+ levels (24pts in 16 playoff games for the Calder Cup run is a substantial sample).

 

[bustaheims]

The main difference between Leipsic and Johnsson is their attention to detail. Leipsic produced handsomely on the scoresheet but had trouble gaining the coach's trust in tougher situations. Johnsson immediately became the coaching staff's favourite player because he was always focused on the assignment details in all three zones AND could produce at Leipsic+ levels (24pts in 16 playoff games for the Calder Cup run is a substantial sample).

Agreed. And, I think that's what pushes Johnsson ahead of being a fringe guy, and into more of a solid bottom-6 forward. Still easily replaceable, but, also the kind of guy you're happy to have in your lineup night-in, night-out - which can't be said of Leipsic-type fringe guys.

 

[Kin]

The only thing I somewhat disagree with is your preference for Leipsic. I think he and Johnsson are basically interchangeable, yet Johnsson has shown a bit more at the NHL level. Objectively though, that's likely due to opportunity as you infer above. Their AHL production -- both outstanding -- is essentially identical.

I'd freely admit that my preference for Leipsic is less based on anything substantial than it is the twin pillars of a) me wanting to be right about Leipsic and b) I think Leipsic is more likely to occasionally punch an opposing player which won't help the Leafs win much but is something I like seeing as a fan.

Or, to put it another way, I think feistiness and toughness and size and leadership and things of that nature have value and it's good for a team to have a broad range of player skills so long as you're not sacrificing the important stuff(scoring/defense/good at possession) for the less important tangential qualities.

 

[Kin]

Anyways, Leipsic was just an example of how you can get a comparable player for next to nothing.

I think the more important thing re: Johnsson is making sure he doesn't turn into another situation like Brown where you pay too much for a guy who doesn't have much in the way of upside because the narrative of the guy you draft, develop and watch turn into a productive player works better than scouring the low end UFA market/waiver wire for guys who can do the job. Finding guys who can be Johnsson at current Johnsson prices is one of the key things Dubas is going to have to do over the next few years so there's no need to get overly attached to the ones they have. Especially if they can get a flukey 20 goal season out of one and then trade that player.

 

[Bullfrog]

The only thing I somewhat disagree with is your preference for Leipsic. I think he and Johnsson are basically interchangeable, yet Johnsson has shown a bit more at the NHL level. Objectively though, that's likely due to opportunity as you infer above. Their AHL production -- both outstanding -- is essentially identical.

I'd freely admit that my preference for Leipsic is less based on anything substantial than it is the twin pillars of a) me wanting to be right about Leipsic and b) I think Leipsic is more likely to occasionally punch an opposing player which won't help the Leafs win much but is something I like seeing as a fan.

Or, to put it another way, I think feistiness and toughness and size and leadership and things of that nature have value and it's good for a team to have a broad range of player skills so long as you're not sacrificing the important stuff(scoring/defense/good at possession) for the less important tangential qualities.

I think you and I are roughly on the same page in terms of emotional investment and intellectual rigour applied to analysis of bottom six/three forwards. 

 

[herman]

We already have a drop-in replacement for Johnsson in Trevor Moore, but he likelier thing that happens is that Johnsson replaces Marleau and Moore replaces Johnsson, and Marchment/Engvall/Timashov round out the options after.

Kapanen is the big reason Brown is surplus to needs at the moment outside of his continued PK contribution and Brown's deal is an indication they were way too conservative on Kapanen's development. Brown is a huge Leafs homer though, so he's not likely to ask for much, and becomes a Hyman replacement down the road.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Brown is a huge Leafs homer though, so he's not likely to ask for much, and becomes a Hyman replacement down the road.

I kinda wish Brown and Hyman's contracts expired at the same time. Just bring them both in a room with matching $2mil contract offers and say whoever signs first gets to stay on the team.

 

[Kin]

Brown is a huge Leafs homer though, so he's not likely to ask for much, and becomes a Hyman replacement down the road.

He may not be likely to ask for much more but it seems unlikely that he'll ask for less, even if he doesn't hit the heights of his rookie year statistically.

Even then though, at some point it becomes as much about whether or not he's taking minutes from someone else you'd like to see in the lineup as it is just whether he's an effective player at a decent price.

 

[herman]

I still think we should trade package Brown to Edmonton for something interesting (Puljujarvi).

 

[Kin]

I kinda wish Brown and Hyman's contracts expired at the same time. Just bring them both in a room with matching $2mil contract offers and say whoever signs first gets to stay on the team.

Connor, Zach, Andreas...we're adding a little something to this year's contract negotiations. 1st place is a 2 million dollar contract. Anyone want to see second place? Second place is this set of steak knives. Third place...

 

[bustaheims]

He may not be likely to ask for much more but it seems unlikely that he'll ask for less, even if he doesn't hit the heights of his rookie year statistically.

Yeah, and the issue isn't with Brown in isolation - unless the Leafs are right up against the cap, the cap savings between him and a similar UFA or rookie earning league minimum isn't likely to make much of a difference on its own - but the cumulative impact of have 3 or 4 guys earning $1M-$1.5M more than an equally capable, easy to find replacement.

Brown is just feels like the most expendable of those players, and the one that might lead to another GM overpaying for.

 

[Zee]

You've hated Johnsson for a while now, I remember when he first got called up you were complaining that you didn't see his offensive upside. Did he cut you off in traffic or something?

I post a lot here so I genuinely didn't remember if this was true. I did a quick search of his name in any posts of mine and honestly I've only mentioned him about a half dozen times outside of GDT's(and none in a particularly negative sense). When he came up the only strong opinion I had about him was that I thought he should keep the 4th line LW spot over Komarov if he earned it.

Like I said, I don't dislike him just that as of yet I'm not convinced he's anything particularly above the sort of talented offensive NHL fringe players that, as we've seen with Leipsic and Leivo, can be had for essentially nothing.

Perhaps more relevantly, I worry that Johnsson is precisely the kind of player that could post good looking numbers if he keeps getting PP/Matthews time and will get overvalued if he scores 15-25 goals. With the guys in the system, he's someone the Leafs probably shouldn't pay significantly more than the minimum.

https://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=4917.msg320747#msg320747

He was called up on March 14th and on March 17th you didn't seem overly impressed.  I mean give the kid a bit of time to adjust to the NHL no?  The reference to the "Dubas Brigade" implies you weren't buying into the positive remarks Dubas and/or Keefe were saying about Johnsson.  It's amazing I remembered this offhand remark cause I felt it was totally unfair at that point. lol

 

[Bullfrog]

He may not be likely to ask for much more but it seems unlikely that he'll ask for less, even if he doesn't hit the heights of his rookie year statistically.

Yeah, and the issue isn't with Brown in isolation - unless the Leafs are right up against the cap, the cap savings between him and a similar UFA or rookie earning league minimum isn't likely to make much of a difference on its own - but the cumulative impact of have 3 or 4 guys earning $1M-$1.5M more than an equally capable, easy to find replacement.

Brown is just feels like the most expendable of those players, and the one that might lead to another GM overpaying for.

On that note, I don't see any point in replacing him unless it comes from within. Unless there's some sort of specific skill the Leafs feel they need that Brown doesn't provide. But, I see that as unlikely given part of Brown's charm is he'll more or less do whatever is needed (5v5, PP, PK) and is a well-rounded player.

 

[Kin]

He was called up on March 14th and on March 17th you didn't seem overly impressed.  I mean give the kid a bit of time to adjust to the NHL no?

I'm not sure what you're looking for here. Should I have been overly impressed? The question was what people thought of Johnsson so far and he hadn't scored so I effectively shrugged my shoulders. Pretty far flight from that and "hate".

  The reference to the "Dubas Brigade" implies you weren't buying into the positive remarks Dubas and/or Keefe were saying about Johnsson. 

No, that's me being snarky to the people here who tended to have a lot of faith in possession numbers and/or the decisions made by the management team.

 

[Zee]

He was called up on March 14th and on March 17th you didn't seem overly impressed.  I mean give the kid a bit of time to adjust to the NHL no?

I'm not sure what you're looking for here. Should I have been overly impressed? The question was what people thought of Johnsson so far and he hadn't scored so I effectively shrugged my shoulders. Pretty far flight from that and "hate".

  The reference to the "Dubas Brigade" implies you weren't buying into the positive remarks Dubas and/or Keefe were saying about Johnsson. 

No, that's me being snarky to the people here who tended to have a lot of faith in possession numbers and/or the decisions made by the management team.

I mean you've gone on record since that you prefer Leipsic over Johnsson so you seem overly critical of Johnsson or anyone saying he's a good player. I mean in his 2nd NHL game and you're not able to even give him any credit (and he later scores after you mention he hasn't yet). I remember when he was called up, had lots of energy, looked really good despite not scoring up to that point, yet you're shrugging the shoulders cause you missed Leipsic as if that's Johnsson's fault.

 

[bustaheims]

On that note, I don't see any point in replacing him unless it comes from within. Unless there's some sort of specific skill the Leafs feel they need that Brown doesn't provide. But, I see that as unlikely given part of Brown's charm is he'll more or less do whatever is needed (5v5, PP, PK) and is a well-rounded player.

I don't feel there's any need to rush to replace him, and I'd agree that I'd prefer to replace him with an internal option. To me, it's more of something to consider seriously when he's entering the final season of his contract (which would be this summer). At that point, the team should be starting to look for potential replacements, and start fielding offers for him. As you say, he's a well-rounded player, but, he also doesn't stand out in any particular area - and that makes him prone to be exactly the type of guy who gets overvalued and leaves teams with cap issues.

 

[Frank E]

I kinda wish Brown and Hyman's contracts expired at the same time. Just bring them both in a room with matching $2mil contract offers and say whoever signs first gets to stay on the team.

Connor, Zach, Andreas...we're adding a little something to this year's contract negotiations. 1st place is a 2 million dollar contract. Anyone want to see second place? Second place is this set of steak knives. Third place...

I understood that reference.

 

[Kin]

I mean you've gone on record since that you prefer Leipsic over Johnsson so you seem overly critical of Johnsson or anyone saying he's a good player.

Like I said, I've literally said Johnsson's name around a half-dozen times. I'm pretty sure other people have said he's a good player more than that. I'm pretty sure I've treated him consistently as the player I think he is, which is an ok fringe-y type 4th liner.

I mean in his 2nd NHL game and you're not able to even give him any credit (and he later scores after you mention he hasn't yet).

Credit for what? He hadn't done anything yet. Which is all I said.

And the reason you remembered this seems to be that you took the exact same bizarre stance when I said "he hasn't scored yet" at the time:

Johnsson! And you pricks said he couldn't finish! He now has one goal more than Ashton Carter

I'm pretty sure what I said is that he hasn't.

 

[Kin]

I understood that reference.

I'd be profoundly disappointed if you didn't have that speech embroidered onto a couch cushion.