Leafs 2016/2017 Schedule in 10 game chunks

[PrestigeWorldwide]

I can't believe I had these guys counted out after that Florida debacle.

Totally, my morale was at a low after the Florida game.  I was pissed!  They look like a matured team the way they're playing 3rd periods lately.  Trying not to get too excited, let's clinch a spot first!

 

[Zee]

I'm generally not optimistic, but I think Leafs take 3 of the next 4.  Florida is on a back2back tomorrow, then Leafs should win both Red Wings and Sabres game next week (Sabres are also on a back2back before they play Leafs and Leafs looking for a measure of revenge)

Nashville game this week is also very winnable.  Nash will be playing 3rd game in 4 nights and they've already pretty much wrapped up a playoff spot so they won't be going nuts to win.

 

[Bender]

Look at the last five games. It's murder. I wouldn't be shocked if they go on and extended losing streak and play their way out of it.

 

[Highlander]

Look at the last five games. It's murder. I wouldn't be shocked if they go on and extended losing streak and play their way out of it.

You are a long time Leaf fan like me and have suffered a lot. No one thought we would even be were we are, imagine if we had won just half those OT games, we would already be in the playoffs. Whatever happens it been amazing hockey and entertaining and we know its only going to get better.

 

[Kin]

Look at the last five games. It's murder. I wouldn't be shocked if they go on and extended losing streak and play their way out of it.

Is it? 4 out of the 5 are at home, 2 are against teams that might very well be out of it and there's an excellent chance at least one of the other games will be against a team with nothing to play for.

 

[Zee]

Look at the last five games. It's murder. I wouldn't be shocked if they go on and extended losing streak and play their way out of it.

Is it? 4 out of the 5 are at home, 2 are against teams that might very well be out of it and there's an excellent chance at least one of the other games will be against a team with nothing to play for.

If Leafs don't win tonight against a tired Panthers team with their 3rd string goalie in net, there may be problems down the stretch.  I realize we have McBackup going, but the team should be fired up enough to play well.  They want revenge for that 7-2 drubbing and know the importance of the remaining 8 games.  I agree with your assessment of the final 4-5 games, playing against teams that are in wind-down mode before the playoffs start.  The Lightning might be the only team in that last week with something to play for.

 

[hockeyfan1]

The teams that have long been out of the playoff race usually enjoy playing spoilers.  The Leafs have three -- Florida (tonight), Detroit, then Buffalo (again).  These games are solidly winnable.  The rest?  None of the top teams -- Washington, Pittsburgh, nor Columbus -- should be taken lightly, no matter where or what position they are in the standings.

The fact that the remaining four games of the season will be played on home ice is to the Leafs advantage, but, it shouldn't stop there. 


GO LEAFS GO!!

 

[Bender]

Look at the last five games. It's murder. I wouldn't be shocked if they go on and extended losing streak and play their way out of it.

Is it? 4 out of the 5 are at home, 2 are against teams that might very well be out of it and there's an excellent chance at least one of the other games will be against a team with nothing to play for.

I think Tampa can surprise, they've been pretty good lately. Buf in Buf is always death for us. Caps, Blue Jackets, Pens are all jockeying for playoff position and/or are ahead of us in the standings.

It won't be easy.

 

[Zee]

 

[Bender]

Do you have a tally of their record for each split?

 

[herman]

Do you have a tally of their record for each split?

Is this what you're looking for?
https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-home-and-away-winning-percentages/2016/

Or head to head? https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/rivalrylisting/

 

[Zee]

Do you have a tally of their record for each split?

First post in this thread has all the chunks and the records.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Number of regulation losses in each ten game segment so far.

4
4
3
2
4
3
3
1

What stands out is that although they?ve had some stretches with fewer wins than you?d like, they?ve managed to be in an awful lot of games, never losing more than 4 games in regulation in a 10 game segment. This coupled with the 15 loser points (most in league) have really helped.

 

[Zee]

Number of regulation losses in each ten game segment so far.

4
4
3
2
4
3
3
1

What stands out is that although they’ve had some stretches with fewer wins than you’d like, they’ve managed to be in an awful lot of games, never losing more than 4 games in regulation in a 10 game segment. This coupled with the 15 loser points (most in league) have really helped.

Chunk summary
3-4-3
5-4-1
4-3-3
7-2-1
5-4-1
4-3-3
4-3-3
4-1-0
-------
36-24-15

 

[Bender]

That five game run we're having came at just the right time.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

That five game run we're having came at just the right time.

Coincidentally came right when Gardiner replaced Rielly on the top pair.

 

[Zee]

 

[Zee]

This is becoming the most enjoyable chunk thread I've ever had the pleasure to oversee.

 

[Coco-puffs]

That five game run we're having came at just the right time.

Coincidentally came right when Gardiner replaced Rielly on the top pair.

Since the awful loss to the Panthers after their fishing trip (which is when Gardiner was switched with Rielly on the top pair):

Gardiner-Zaitsev sport at 43.8% CF% (46.25% SZV adj.) and a 37.5% GF% with a normal PDO of 99.  Small sample size of course, and granted they have led most of those games but overall, Rielly-Zaitsev looks like the better long term play based on CF% being more predictive of future success. 

Rielly since the switch:  50% CF (52.68% SZV adj.), 60% GF%.  He's riding a nice PDO to the GF% but his luck was due to change.  Note:  Team as a whole is 48.6% CF% (51% SZV adj.)  during this time, so he's been a positive relatively speaking.

Fully aware of the sample size issues here, but boy does Rielly ever look like Gardiner used to when he was getting the sheltered minutes.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Gardiner-Zaitsev sport at 43.8% CF% (46.25% SZV adj.) and a 37.5% GF% with a normal PDO of 99.  Small sample size of course, and granted they have led most of those games but overall, Rielly-Zaitsev looks like the better long term play based on CF% being more predictive of future success.

It's definitely too early to read into the GF% right now. The raw stats are just 3 for and 5 against, so really one good game could push them back up to 50% (or one bad could make it look significantly worse). All in all a 2.60 GA/60 together is actually pretty good. It's the GF side of the equation that needs some work. Rielly-Zaitsev was sporting a 5.35 GA/60 in February/March before the break-up.

As for CF%, yeah it's not great. Jake got absolutely shellacked in the games against TB, BOS, and NSH. If the pairing stayed together and we got more data would we see those as outliers eventually or are we predicting that he'll be under 27% in 3 out of every 8 games? I don't know, but I think it's definitely too early to make any definite statements about this.