Leafs acquire Matt Murray [25% retained]

[Frank E]

I don't have any sympathy for Dubas because everyone has been ringing the alarm on goaltending for years now.

"Dubas wasn't left with any choice if you look at the options" would be an acceptable excuse to me if this summer was his first as GM of this franchise.

He's had years to properly address goaltending depth problems, and he's done nothing but fussyfuck around with it trying to get fancy with high risk/low cost options...now he's got high risk and high cost.

 

[bustaheims]

As much as I'm down on this trade, Jack has never shown he can be a 50 game starter and had a wildly inconsistent year. Why should we pay Campbell 4yrs for more vs. Murray for less and only 2yrs? Once we see what Campbell goes for we can judge it but the more I digest the trade there is no way I'd give Campbell 5x5 in comparison. Too long and too risky.

Yup. If Campbell was willing to come back on a deal similar to what the Leafs will be paying Murray, then I think you can make a case for going with the devil you know. But an extended deal? Too many questions for a goalie already in his 30s. The only goalie out there I'd give more than 2 years to is Kuemper - and, even with him, I'd be hesitant to go more than 3 or 4, as he also doesn't have a long track record as a starter and is into his 30s.

 

[Guilt Trip]

As much as I'm down on this trade, Jack has never shown he can be a 50 game starter and had a wildly inconsistent year. Why should we pay Campbell 4yrs for more vs. Murray for less and only 2yrs? Once we see what Campbell goes for we can judge it but the more I digest the trade there is no way I'd give Campbell 5x5 in comparison. Too long and too risky.

Totally agree with you. Simply not worth the risk on Jack.

 

[Kin]

I don't have any sympathy for Dubas because everyone has been ringing the alarm on goaltending for years now.

"Dubas wasn't left with any choice if you look at the options" would be an acceptable excuse to me if this summer was his first as GM of this franchise.

He's had years to properly address goaltending depth problems, and he's done nothing but fussyfuck around with it trying to get fancy with high risk/low cost options...now he's got high risk and high cost.

Realistically, there's not much Dubas could have done to drastically improve the situation given how long he's been running the franchise and what was in the goaltending cupboard when he took over from Lamoriello. Even if he'd sunk all the team's draft resources into finding a goalie you'd still probably be a year or so away from a guy being NHL ready(even if there were goalies available of that calibre in his first draft) and it's pretty unusual for top flight goaltending prospects to be available via trade.

I don't know that saying "Were there better options realistically available?" is asking to have sympathy for Dubas, just that if we're going to judge him it should be by a fair standard.

 

[Joe S.]

(You had to bring up Rask...  :'( )

I will never not bring up Rask. That trade set the team back a decade. You can pick and choose bad trades here and there but this was franchise altering horrible.

 

[Joe S.]

I'm also trying to wrap my head around the twitter logic of 'this will piss off Matthews and he will leave in 2 years'. So we have Lebron on the leafs now? Matthews is managing the roster?

And on that note, let's say they do commit 5x5 to Campbell, and they had given 5x8 to his best friend Hyman, how does that help when trying to give him a new contract in 2 years?

I think my biggest mistake was reading anything on twitter.

 

[Peter D.]

(You had to bring up Rask...  :'( )

I will never not bring up Rask. That trade set the team back a decade. You can pick and choose bad trades here and there but this was franchise altering horrible.

Neither will I, and I complete agree 1000%, and would suggest it set the team back longer than a decade. 

But hey...Matt Murray will make it all better now. 

 

[bustaheims]

Realistically, there's not much Dubas could have done to drastically improve the situation given how long he's been running the franchise and what was in the goaltending cupboard when he took over from Lamoriello. Even if he'd sunk all the team's draft resources into finding a goalie you'd still probably be a year or so away from a guy being NHL ready(even if there were goalies available of that calibre in his first draft) and it's pretty unusual for top flight goaltending prospects to be available via trade.

I don't know that saying "Were there better options realistically available?" is asking to have sympathy for Dubas, just that if we're going to judge him it should be by a fair standard.

Yup. Other than maybe going hard after Markstrom two off-seasons ago (and, subsequently, needing to deal Andersen to fit under the cap) or targeting Kuemper then, or maybe Ullmark last summer (though, at that point, there was fair reason to go with Campbell and, again, the cap), I'm not sure what real upgrade options were out there. The rest of the goalies that have moved had similar questions and haven't exactly been world beaters with their new teams, either.

 

[Deebo]

There just aren't very many goalies that are consistently on top of the league year after year.

 

[Fanatic]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2022/07/12/first-reactions-kyle-dubas-takes-a-potentially-make-or-break-risk-in-betting-on-matt-murray/

2. Either Kyle Dubas has total, unbreakable faith in Matt Murray, or he does not feel his job is on the line. What I think is most interesting about this deal is how it looks from Dubas? vantage point. Leafs fans on social media who are okay with the deal generally went with the line, ?Well, I?d rather give Murray 2 x $4.688M than Campbell 5 x $5M.? The implication here is that the latter is a long-term deal that may age very poorly for a goalie in his 30s like Campbell.

That would be one of the only rationales for this move. What is unique is that the rationale, ?Don?t give out a long-term deal that may age poorly,? is not typically a consideration for most NHL GMs, who operate in short-term windows in which their main concern is saving their own jobs. Typically, a GM in Kyle Dubas? position, with a win-now team and an ostensibly warm seat beneath him, would throw five or six years at Jack Campbell or Darcy Kuemper and say, ?It?ll probably be terrible in 2027, but we need to win in 2023 or else my job is gone, so it makes sense now. When it?s bad, it?ll probably be someone else?s problem.?

He goes on to make note that Matthews and Nylander contracts are up for renewed numbers in 2 seasons as well, so locking into an older, also creaky goalie at 5+ is no bueno.

I?m largely where HS and busta is on this. Murray is their best option today given that all non-Kuemper options are term-heavy, or significantly less proven. Generally why I would?ve been okay keeping Mrazek is he is the cheapest bad option (who might have bounced back ? couldn?t have been worse), but if the coaching staff had no confidence in him and he subsequently had no confidence either, everybody is hooped.

Murray comes with a similar narrative to when Campbell first arrived (except without the shelter of an incumbent), but higher pedigree of achievement, and we already have his goalie whisperer on staff who isn?t extremely problematic. Dubas is banking on familiarity and trust, and maybe the refreshing change of scenery from the moribund sens will inspire a return to form.

Not strictly related to the goalie issue, but Matthews and Nylander are not simply up in two years. I think it is more complicated by the fact that both Matthews and Marner have full NMC's that kick in next July 1st. The team loses all control over those two in just one year. The Leafs need to be sure of where they stand and what comes next by next year's draft. After that, they lose any control that they may have had.

 

[Omallley]

Late to the party, but I do not like this deal: that's a lot of cheddar on a maybe.

(I know, hot take).

 

[herman]

There just aren't very many goalies that are consistently on top of the league year after year.

There's maybe 3-4 blue chip goaltenders left in the NHL year over year (a bunch of them have retired of fallen off the cliff in the past 2 seasons). And once they hit those big ticket UFA deals, they've got maybe 2-3 years left at that level before it comes an anchor in the bad way. Unless you already have one, the plan needs to be to cheap out and keep taking draft pick swings, hope for lucky breaks, and develop a play structure/system that insulates any goalie.

edit: I was writing that as Deebo posted.

https://twitter.com/camcharronyvr/status/1546635620155396098

 

[ZBBM]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2022/07/12/first-reactions-kyle-dubas-takes-a-potentially-make-or-break-risk-in-betting-on-matt-murray/

2. Either Kyle Dubas has total, unbreakable faith in Matt Murray, or he does not feel his job is on the line. What I think is most interesting about this deal is how it looks from Dubas? vantage point. Leafs fans on social media who are okay with the deal generally went with the line, ?Well, I?d rather give Murray 2 x $4.688M than Campbell 5 x $5M.? The implication here is that the latter is a long-term deal that may age very poorly for a goalie in his 30s like Campbell.

That would be one of the only rationales for this move. What is unique is that the rationale, ?Don?t give out a long-term deal that may age poorly,? is not typically a consideration for most NHL GMs, who operate in short-term windows in which their main concern is saving their own jobs. Typically, a GM in Kyle Dubas? position, with a win-now team and an ostensibly warm seat beneath him, would throw five or six years at Jack Campbell or Darcy Kuemper and say, ?It?ll probably be terrible in 2027, but we need to win in 2023 or else my job is gone, so it makes sense now. When it?s bad, it?ll probably be someone else?s problem.?

He goes on to make note that Matthews and Nylander contracts are up for renewed numbers in 2 seasons as well, so locking into an older, also creaky goalie at 5+ is no bueno.

I?m largely where HS and busta is on this. Murray is their best option today given that all non-Kuemper options are term-heavy, or significantly less proven. Generally why I would?ve been okay keeping Mrazek is he is the cheapest bad option (who might have bounced back ? couldn?t have been worse), but if the coaching staff had no confidence in him and he subsequently had no confidence either, everybody is hooped.

Murray comes with a similar narrative to when Campbell first arrived (except without the shelter of an incumbent), but higher pedigree of achievement, and we already have his goalie whisperer on staff who isn?t extremely problematic. Dubas is banking on familiarity and trust, and maybe the refreshing change of scenery from the moribund sens will inspire a return to form.

Not strictly related to the goalie issue, but Matthews and Nylander are not simply up in two years. I think it is more complicated by the fact that both Matthews and Marner have full NMC's that kick in next July 1st. The team loses all control over those two in just one year. The Leafs need to be sure of where they stand and what comes next by next year's draft. After that, they lose any control that they may have had.

The reason we are where we are is not just on Dubas ? it's a management-wide failure to identify, draft, and develop goalies internally.

That said, I don't get the take from MLHS quoted above, that Dubas must think his job isn't on the line.  If Murray is a dud, the only thing that will save Dubas is if whoever is the backup takes the team beyond the first round.  It's inconceivable that Dubas could survive another 1 and out.

 

[Kin]

That said, I don't get the take from MLHS quoted above, that Dubas must think his job isn't on the line.  If Murray is a dud, the only thing that will save Dubas is if whoever is the backup takes the team beyond the first round.  It's inconceivable that Dubas could survive another 1 and out.

I've also never really bought the argument in general. Especially for a guy Dubas' age, any decisions he makes now he would get asked about if he did get fired when looking for a new gig. The idea that he'd be open to questionable long term decisions to protect himself in the short-term feels like kind of old-school NHL thinking.

 

[Joe S.]

Late to the party, but I do not like this deal: that's a lot of cheddar on a maybe.

(I know, hot take).

I get it. But tell me which goalie isn?t a maybe? I think that?s the biggest issue. Unless somehow you get Hellebuyck or Vasilevskiy, which is impossible, who isnt a maybe?

Every single UFA option has the same risks and question marks.

 

[Kin]

Every single UFA option has the same risks and question marks.

Yeah. Of all of the options discussed it feels like the two "safest" moves were either giving a big money, long term contract to the 32 year old who's played more than 30 games only three times in his career or the option that may not have even been an option and giving a 2 year deal with reasonable money to the guy who'll turn 38 in November.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

Is there any chance the future considerations in the deal ends up being Kerfoot or Holl, depending on how other trades may play out? If so, that changes my perception of the deal.

I doubt it, but, it wouldn't shock me if they relate to a contingency plan/future deal that they're still hammering out the details on.

That?s more or less what I meant. I think it?s at least possible that there?s a future salary dump to Ottawa that?s generally agreed upon by both teams, but it?s also agreed that the Leafs can test the market for that dump first.

And, no, Ottawa isn?t generally in the business of taking on more salary, but they may see value in a Holl on their blueline.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/dalter/status/1546904129192316928
Murray's dad, James, passed away Jan 2018.

https://twitter.com/mikeystephens81/status/1546904832614735874

Full availability
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sl6NV326Ymc

Should Topher Grace play Murray in the Kyle Dubas biopic?

 

[Bender]

https://twitter.com/dalter/status/1546904129192316928
Murray's dad, James, passed away Jan 2018.

https://twitter.com/mikeystephens81/status/1546904832614735874

Full availability
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sl6NV326Ymc

Should Topher Grace play Murray in the Kyle Dubas biopic?

100% it has to be Thomas Middleditch.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

https://twitter.com/dalter/status/1546904129192316928

Are there pictures of Murray as a kid sleeping in Leafs PJ's?

I KNEW it!