Leafs acquire Matt Murray [25% retained]

[OldTimeHockey]

Like it's been said above, more cap retention would have been great. That said, if all things are equal, I take Murray over Campbell. Campbell may surprise me in Edmonton, or wherever he ends up....but I really don't see him being the answer to their problems. He's a really good back up. That is all.

 

[L K]

I?m not going to pretend that I like the trade; I don?t. The cap hit is too high and so is the injury risk. I don?t like that Dubas is gambling this way with the most important position on a hockey team.

But? if I?m going to try to persuade myself that I?m okay with the trade? First off, I?m pretty sure Dubas isn?t thrilled with any of his other options, both in terms of cap hit and term. I expect Campbell and Kuemper are looking for too much money over too many years. If, in theory, Dubas could have resigned Campbell or signed Kuemper for 2 years at Murray?s 4.6M, I think he would have done it. But neither guy is signing that contract. And Dubas may legitimately have as many or more concerns about Campbell?s health as he does about Murray. The biggest appeal of Murray (again, if I?m persuading myself) is that he has a high ceiling and the term commitment is only two years.

No matter who the 1B goalie ends up being, I think it?ll probably end up more likely than not that Dubas continues to spend the next two years actively probing the goalie market for other options.

I think my problem is that it?s the entire approach to the team that is the problem.  I agree that paying Campbell 5 million AND doing it for 5 years isn?t a good idea.  But being 6 years into the Matthews era and still not getting out of the first round and then setting up to have Matt Murray who has not had a league average season in 4 years and also has significant injury concerns and basically takes up the same cap hit as Mrazek/Campbell did last year?..that?s a huge problem.  Our forward depth gets worse because of this trade. 

I really hope this works out but I really just don?t have optimism with this core now with Murray as our starter.

 

[bustaheims]

Now that I've had some time to digest the trade, I still don't like it, but I understand it. This summer is a terrible off-season to be looking for a starting goalie. All the supposedly available options would have either been more expensive - in terms of the cap, acquisition cost, or both - and, outside of Kuemper, they all come with serious question marks. Murray might be the best value play and might have the most attractive upside, even if he comes with significant risk. It's definitely a gamble, but, is it a worse play than a long-term commitment with Campbell or giving up real assets to pick up someone like Gibson, who hasn't been much better over the last 3 seasons? I'm not sure it is. I think the decisions made in net over the last 2 years or so meant the Leafs were basically screwed this summer. Goaltending has been a major blind spot for Dubas (as it is with many GMs - it's a tough position to get right if you can't find an elite goalie in the draft), and we're really seeing the impact of that now.

 

[herman]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2022/07/12/first-reactions-kyle-dubas-takes-a-potentially-make-or-break-risk-in-betting-on-matt-murray/

2. Either Kyle Dubas has total, unbreakable faith in Matt Murray, or he does not feel his job is on the line. What I think is most interesting about this deal is how it looks from Dubas? vantage point. Leafs fans on social media who are okay with the deal generally went with the line, ?Well, I?d rather give Murray 2 x $4.688M than Campbell 5 x $5M.? The implication here is that the latter is a long-term deal that may age very poorly for a goalie in his 30s like Campbell.

That would be one of the only rationales for this move. What is unique is that the rationale, ?Don?t give out a long-term deal that may age poorly,? is not typically a consideration for most NHL GMs, who operate in short-term windows in which their main concern is saving their own jobs. Typically, a GM in Kyle Dubas? position, with a win-now team and an ostensibly warm seat beneath him, would throw five or six years at Jack Campbell or Darcy Kuemper and say, ?It?ll probably be terrible in 2027, but we need to win in 2023 or else my job is gone, so it makes sense now. When it?s bad, it?ll probably be someone else?s problem.?

He goes on to make note that Matthews and Nylander contracts are up for renewed numbers in 2 seasons as well, so locking into an older, also creaky goalie at 5+ is no bueno.

I?m largely where HS and busta is on this. Murray is their best option today given that all non-Kuemper options are term-heavy, or significantly less proven. Generally why I would?ve been okay keeping Mrazek is he is the cheapest bad option (who might have bounced back ? couldn?t have been worse), but if the coaching staff had no confidence in him and he subsequently had no confidence either, everybody is hooped.

Murray comes with a similar narrative to when Campbell first arrived (except without the shelter of an incumbent), but higher pedigree of achievement, and we already have his goalie whisperer on staff who isn?t extremely problematic. Dubas is banking on familiarity and trust, and maybe the refreshing change of scenery from the moribund sens will inspire a return to form.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Regardless of liking more retention or whatever, Murray is a Leaf now and I will cheer him on. If he stays healthy, I think it's an easy win..so now I hope he stays healthy and can take us past at least the 1st round.
I also think Dubas isn't done yet. I think we see another goalie coming here because I don't see Kallgren or Woll being the backup.

 

[Peter D.]

I?m not going to pretend that I like the trade; I don?t. The cap hit is too high and so is the injury risk. I don?t like that Dubas is gambling this way with the most important position on a hockey team.

But? if I?m going to try to persuade myself that I?m okay with the trade? First off, I?m pretty sure Dubas isn?t thrilled with any of his other options, both in terms of cap hit and term. I expect Campbell and Kuemper are looking for too much money over too many years. If, in theory, Dubas could have resigned Campbell or signed Kuemper for 2 years at Murray?s 4.6M, I think he would have done it. But neither guy is signing that contract. And Dubas may legitimately have as many or more concerns about Campbell?s health as he does about Murray. The biggest appeal of Murray (again, if I?m persuading myself) is that he has a high ceiling and the term commitment is only two years.

No matter who the 1B goalie ends up being, I think it?ll probably end up more likely than not that Dubas continues to spend the next two years actively probing the goalie market for other options.

I think this is a fair way to look at this.  But I suppose it also has to do with what you thought of the signing of Murray by Ottawa last year for 3 years at $6.25 million each.

For me, at the time, I thought it was a boom or bust proposition for them, which they could afford to take.  A rebuilding team with lots of cap space who was taking a flier on 27-year old goalie who has two Stanley Cups to his name.  So it was a gamble that didn't work out for them, but it also didn't hamper them.

For the Leafs though, who are tight against the cap, have been hit and miss with goaltending, and have a team more than capable of contending, pining your hopes on a guy who had another poor year overall and battled injuries is extremely risky.  I certainly think, just like with Ottawa, he has the potential and age on his side to perhaps find what made him successful.  Which will make a whole bunch of us sound foolish when looking back in hindsight.  But holy moly, it also has the makings of disaster.  Seeing yet another season squandered away with the talent the team has because goaltending continues to be a weak point would be a bitter pill to swallow.

 

[lamajama]

Like other posters, I think this was a bad move that will blow up in their faces but not knowing the internal reasons they went
this way (lack of faith in Campbell/health concerns/mental strength perhaps) and what was out there available in terms of required contracts
and term...maybe? I find it very odd that they could not have gotten MAF for 2 years at $4m as an example instead.

What is most concerning is this market. MM gets off to a slow start or has any hiccups, this media and town will rip him a new one.

Look at what the reaction has been so far...it's going to be an interesting presser if the media goes after Kyle and MM with anticipated questions that we all want a reply to...

Does he have the mental fortitude to handle this? I sure hope so.

 

[Kin]

I find it very odd that they could not have gotten MAF for 2 years at $4m as an example instead.

If Fleury liked his time in Minnesota, was comfortable there and open to signing a 2 year/7 million dollar deal to return, how do the Leafs prevent that? Openly tamper with him and discuss specific terms? And, realistically, what are the odds that an extra 500k per year and no extra term get him to not sign a deal he's comfortable with?

 

[4EVRLEAFAN]

Yup I'm nervous...lol Maybe this will be the change he needs to get his game back and will stay healthy who knows but history isn't on his side, yup I'm nervous...lol

 

[Joe S.]

I completely understand the sentiments here. I'm on the fence too, but I'm trying to rationalize the logic.

What were the other options?

Re-sign Campbell

The Leafs could have made a strong offer to Campbell, but what is it about Campbell that makes anyone super confident? He has injury and consistency concerns as much as Murray does. And I may be in the minority, but I never felt, even at his best, that campbell was a difference maker. I think he's a great guy and a competent goalie, but he felt way more JS Aubin to me than anything else.

UFA Market

Who is out there that gives you more confidence? Kuemper? I guess, but really is he a difference maker? And then what if you strike out in free agency and get no one, now you're desperate on the trade market?

As much as it may be hard to see right now, I think they took the safest route. I know it makes me look like I'm being an apologist, but I don't think this is a cut and dry move. You can't say this is horrible and you can't say it's amazing, that's why we're having so much debate about it.

They have certainty right now and can start tinkering with the rest of the lineup. But this once again shows how the Rask trade was by far the worst trade this franchise has ever done. Still haven't drafted a starting NHL goalie since Potvin.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

Is there any chance the future considerations in the deal ends up being Kerfoot or Holl, depending on how other trades may play out? If so, that changes my perception of the deal.

 

[Bender]

I find it very odd that they could not have gotten MAF for 2 years at $4m as an example instead.

If Fleury liked his time in Minnesota, was comfortable there and open to signing a 2 year/7 million dollar deal to return, how do the Leafs prevent that? Openly tamper with him and discuss specific terms? And, realistically, what are the odds that an extra 500k per year and no extra term get him to not sign a deal he's comfortable with?

I mean, I don't find it odd at all that they couldn't get him considering he decided to stay put. No amount of Leafs pressure will change someone's mind to go somewhere that they don't want to.

 

[Joe S.]

Is there any chance the future considerations in the deal ends up being Kerfoot or Holl, depending on how other trades may play out? If so, that changes my perception of the deal.

I really think, maybe naively, that those 2 could return something tangible. Especially kerfoot, he's owed less than league minimu actual dollars and is a useful player.

 

[Can8899]

Is there any chance the future considerations in the deal ends up being Kerfoot or Holl, depending on how other trades may play out? If so, that changes my perception of the deal.

Can't imagine this is the case.  What would the reason be to not just include them in the original deal?  I'm 99% sure I heard somewhere that Kerfoot's bonus has already been paid out so we're likely not waiting on that. 

I would think (hope?) that both Kerfoot and Holl have more value that what was included in this deal but who knows.

 

[Peter D.]

I completely understand the sentiments here. I'm on the fence too, but I'm trying to rationalize the logic.

What were the other options?

Re-sign Campbell

The Leafs could have made a strong offer to Campbell, but what is it about Campbell that makes anyone super confident? He has injury and consistency concerns as much as Murray does. And I may be in the minority, but I never felt, even at his best, that campbell was a difference maker. I think he's a great guy and a competent goalie, but he felt way more JS Aubin to me than anything else.

UFA Market

Who is out there that gives you more confidence? Kuemper? I guess, but really is he a difference maker? And then what if you strike out in free agency and get money, now you're desperate on the trade market?

As much as it may be hard to see right now, I think they took the safest route. I know it makes me look like I'm being an apologist, but I don't think this is a cut and dry move. You can't say this is horrible and you can't say it's amazing, that's why we're having so much debate about it.

They have certainty right now and can start tinkering with the rest of the lineup. But this once again shows how the Rask trade was by far the worst trade this franchise has ever done. Still haven't drafted a starting NHL goalie since Potvin.

I'd rather have re-signed Campbell.  4 years may have been too many years to swallow, but I'd feel more comfortable giving him a few thousand more than what Murray is making to retain him.

Agreed on Kuemper.  I feel like he is an average goalie who was in a great situation last year.

I'm just fearful Murray is damaged goods and we are relying on a crappy goalie to be our goaltending solution.

(You had to bring up Rask...  :'( )

 

[bustaheims]

Is there any chance the future considerations in the deal ends up being Kerfoot or Holl, depending on how other trades may play out? If so, that changes my perception of the deal.

I doubt it, but, it wouldn't shock me if they relate to a contingency plan/future deal that they're still hammering out the details on.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I think Kerfoot is going to make room.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

This is where I was at pre-trade:

We need retention, we need an asset coming back our way, and most importantly we need another capable goalie lined up to platoon with him.

We got retention, but not as much as I think everyone expected (50%). We got an asset back, but not something that was comparable to the rumoured Buffalo deal. And with Murray's higher than expected cap hit we might not have as much cap space to add another goalie to platoon evenly with him. So while I do like Murray and think he can provide us with decent goaltending next season, it's possible we go 0 for 3 there which is obviously a let down as far as the trade goes.

The Leafs were running out of goalie options, but the sens were the ones literally on their last one. No one else wanted Murray, and they needed out of that contract. Toronto should have been able to get even just a little more out of the deal one way or another.

 

[Bender]

I completely understand the sentiments here. I'm on the fence too, but I'm trying to rationalize the logic.

What were the other options?

Re-sign Campbell

The Leafs could have made a strong offer to Campbell, but what is it about Campbell that makes anyone super confident? He has injury and consistency concerns as much as Murray does. And I may be in the minority, but I never felt, even at his best, that campbell was a difference maker. I think he's a great guy and a competent goalie, but he felt way more JS Aubin to me than anything else.

UFA Market

Who is out there that gives you more confidence? Kuemper? I guess, but really is he a difference maker? And then what if you strike out in free agency and get money, now you're desperate on the trade market?

As much as it may be hard to see right now, I think they took the safest route. I know it makes me look like I'm being an apologist, but I don't think this is a cut and dry move. You can't say this is horrible and you can't say it's amazing, that's why we're having so much debate about it.

They have certainty right now and can start tinkering with the rest of the lineup. But this once again shows how the Rask trade was by far the worst trade this franchise has ever done. Still haven't drafted a starting NHL goalie since Potvin.

I'd rather have re-signed Campbell.  4 years may have been too many years to swallow, but I'd feel more comfortable giving him a few thousand more than what Murray is making to retain him.

Agreed on Kuemper.  I feel like he is an average goalie who was in a great situation last year.

I'm just fearful Murray is damaged goods and we are relying on a crappy goalie to be our goaltending solution.

(You had to bring up Rask...  :'( )

As much as I'm down on this trade, Jack has never shown he can be a 50 game starter and had a wildly inconsistent year. Why should we pay Campbell 4yrs for more vs. Murray for less and only 2yrs? Once we see what Campbell goes for we can judge it but the more I digest the trade there is no way I'd give Campbell 5x5 in comparison. Too long and too risky.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I completely understand the sentiments here. I'm on the fence too, but I'm trying to rationalize the logic.

What were the other options?

Re-sign Campbell

The Leafs could have made a strong offer to Campbell, but what is it about Campbell that makes anyone super confident? He has injury and consistency concerns as much as Murray does. And I may be in the minority, but I never felt, even at his best, that campbell was a difference maker. I think he's a great guy and a competent goalie, but he felt way more JS Aubin to me than anything else.

I agree with you and I don't mind Dubas swinging for the fences. Best thing here is Murray isn't a new guy coming in. He's well known by the Leafs and their staff.
Hopeful we can get a capable backup too.