Leafs @ Blue Jackets - Feb. 15th, 7:00pm - SN, Fan 590

[CarltonTheBear]

It's amazing the Leafs can have the top ranked power play in the league with virtually no one-timer options.

 

[herman]

Not a great result tonight, but I like seeing the fight we put up in the third.

 

[Redleaf]

Didn't see the whole game. What happened to Marner?

Don't tell me he's injured?

 

[bustaheims]

No, but if he had made himself indispensable in Columbus they wouldn't have traded him.

Well, good news. They didn't trade him!

Also, I mean, how many backup goalies have made themselves indispensable?

 

[rdowdall]

No, but if he had made himself indispensable in Columbus they wouldn't have traded him.

Well, good news. They didn't trade him!

Also, I mean, how many backup goalies have made themselves indispensable?

Fair points.  I think this has gone farther that I had originally intended.

 

[herman]

It's amazing the Leafs can have the top ranked power play in the league with virtually no one-timer options.

https://theathletic.com/38708/2017/02/16/tyler-dellow-how-mike-babcocks-evolution-has-given-the-leafs-the-nhls-top-power-play/

Playing 4F1D saps point shots by definition (unless playing 3F2D formation with an F subbed in for the 2nd D). Working the puck into home plate territory cuts off two blockers, generates 'softer' rebounds for more chances in close, and there's much less of a chance to Weber one of your own forwards into the IR.

I'd be interested in seeing them moving towards a net-side set up, rather than half boards (e.g. Nylander on the left red line to the right of the goalie, or Matthews on the opposite), as it opens up the passing options into the slot, behind the net bank passes, to the dots, or a sneaky short-side tuck/snipe, while taking away two penalty killers and forcing them to all face away from the other attackers. If nothing looks good, Nylander/Matthews can just go for a bit of a skate and reverse with the defenseman, or thread a cross to the backdoor as the PK box sags up to track the puck.

 

[Frank E]

It's amazing the Leafs can have the top ranked power play in the league with virtually no one-timer options.

https://theathletic.com/38708/2017/02/16/tyler-dellow-how-mike-babcocks-evolution-has-given-the-leafs-the-nhls-top-power-play/

Playing 4F1D saps point shots by definition (unless playing 3F2D formation with an F subbed in for the 2nd D). Working the puck into home plate territory cuts off two blockers, generates 'softer' rebounds for more chances in close, and there's much less of a chance to Weber one of your own forwards into the IR.

I'd be interested in seeing them moving towards a net-side set up, rather than half boards (e.g. Nylander on the left red line to the right of the goalie, or Matthews on the opposite), as it opens up the passing options into the slot, behind the net bank passes, to the dots, or a sneaky short-side tuck/snipe, while taking away two penalty killers and forcing them to all face away from the other attackers. If nothing looks good, Nylander/Matthews can just go for a bit of a skate and reverse with the defenseman, or thread a cross to the backdoor as the PK box sags up to track the puck.

Speaking of analytics, I met a guy last night whose son works for the analytics company that Mark Cuban has invested in in Montreal...guy gets paid to watch hockey day and night!

Anyways, he told me that they're almost at the point where they're getting enough data to be able to predict outcomes, and that got me thinking about that I'm sure the gambling/betting sites are very interested in this data.

 

[herman]

Speaking of analytics, I met a guy last night whose son works for the analytics company that Mark Cuban has invested in in Montreal...guy gets paid to watch hockey day and night!

Anyways, he told me that they're almost at the point where they're getting enough data to be able to predict outcomes, and that got me thinking about that I'm sure the gambling/betting sites are very interested in this data.

The next step to take has to be in the data collection side. The Leafs already have biometric readings for practices (not allowed in games yet), but we're pretty close to RFID chips in player jerseys and pucks + GoPro'd rinks. Then we'll start getting clearer pictures of puck possession, zone entries/exits/passing metrics (currently done by hand on replays by volunteers) all publicly available. Trickle down into AHL and junior leagues would make scouting and drafting way less of a gamble.

 

[mr grieves]

Not a great result tonight, but I like seeing the fight we put up in the third.

For all we hear about the Leafs blowing late leads, their record when trailing after the first is a terrible 1-13-3. That 6% winning percentage is 30th in the league. Most teams are around 30%.

For a squad with a lot of offensive, they haven't been great at getting back into games, even if the fight they put up looks pretty good.

 

[Zee]

Not a great result tonight, but I like seeing the fight we put up in the third.

For all we hear about the Leafs blowing late leads, their record when trailing after the first is a terrible 1-13-3. That 6% winning percentage is 30th in the league. Most teams are around 30%.

For a squad with a lot of offensive, they haven't been great at getting back into games, even if the fight they put up looks pretty good.

Let's hope that the stats even out then.  Maybe the Leafs come back in more games in the final 26 games since they're overdue.

 

[herman]

For all we hear about the Leafs blowing late leads, their record when trailing after the first is a terrible 1-13-3. That 6% winning percentage is 30th in the league. Most teams are around 30%.

For a squad with a lot of offensive, they haven't been great at getting back into games, even if the fight they put up looks pretty good.

I agree with the general thrust your point, but all I could see in that stat is that we've only trailed after 1 period 17 times this season after 56 games.  8)

And in a more general sense, this is the year I expected them to face an array of adversity. Learning how to not drop late leads and learning how to claw back from early multi-goal deficits is something that needs to be learned as a group. Insofar as it can be controlled, I really don't mind trading the playoffs this year for the investment in those lumps this year. There was a glimpse of their full potential two nights ago against the Islanders.

 

[mr grieves]

For all we hear about the Leafs blowing late leads, their record when trailing after the first is a terrible 1-13-3. That 6% winning percentage is 30th in the league. Most teams are around 30%.

For a squad with a lot of offensive, they haven't been great at getting back into games, even if the fight they put up looks pretty good.

I agree with the general thrust your point, but all I could see in that stat is that we've only trailed after 1 period 17 times this season after 56 games.  8)

And in a more general sense, this is the year I expected them to face an array of adversity. Learning how to not drop late leads and learning how to claw back from early multi-goal deficits is something that needs to be learned as a group. Insofar as it can be controlled, I really don't mind trading the playoffs this year for the investment in those lumps this year. There was a glimpse of their full potential two nights ago against the Islanders.

I guess. I just wish we'd see more evidence of them, you know, learning...

 

[herman]

I guess. I just wish we'd see more evidence of them, you know, learning...

The Islander game was evidence of the team having learned a bit more about how to play with the lead. They defied score effects and continued to pour on zone time, shots, and goals, instead of sitting back conservatively and falling into a cycle of icing.

The hard part about seeing this evidence on a game by game basis is that a) each player learns at a different rate; b) the other team is still playing; c) goals are probabilistic events; and d) refs. Instead of measuring their development by W/L results, we have to look at a longer timeline of behaviour strongly correlated to wins.

Last night they pushed, but were stymied by a good performance in the other net, wonderful refereeing, and making mistakes of miscommunication and positioning at critical times. It happens. In the third, they started doing more good things than bad things.

 

[mr grieves]

I guess. I just wish we'd see more evidence of them, you know, learning...

The Islander game was evidence of the team having learned a bit more about how to play with the lead. They defied score effects and continued to pour on zone time, shots, and goals, instead of sitting back conservatively and falling into a cycle of icing.

Yeah, and it's a testament to how good they are that they're playing with 3rd period leads more than any team in the league but Washington and Minnesota. They've had a lot of time to practice learning to play that way. As far as going into the first intermission trailing, their 17 times is pretty average.

I only noted it because I've been wondering why my feeling watching games isn't often frustration over blown leads (that's only happened 8 times), but it is often a sinking feeling, after they fall behind, that it's over -- they'll maybe get their game going in the 2nd or 3rd, but not to the extent that they'll be able to mount a comeback. Losing in the first is happening more frequently than blowing leads.

I mean, even during the eighteen-wheeler sequel, when Kessel pretty much stopped playing, they came back more often.

I'm sure it's something they'll work out.