Leafs extend Joseph Woll 3 x 3.66M AAV

[Guilt Trip]

There is risk with every contract. Leafs feel he's going to be the #1. Sometimes you gotta sign them early to not pay so much down the road.

There's no need to rush into this contract this summer, though. He's still signed through next season, and, he he shows himself to be a capable starter, then you sign him - and, unless he has a healthy, Vezina calibre season (which is unlikely), you still likely get him on a similar contract to this. It's just a completely unnecessary move at this point.

Doubtful. Sammy got 3.5M,(4.25%) after a decent season and a not so great playoff performance. The cap will have gone up twice since that contract was signed and Woll's new contract will begin. Contracts are based off cap % so if Woll has a season that's only just as good as Sammy he'll get 4.25% of the cap. At 88M that 3.74M. Leafs believe in Woll, that's clear. Yes there's risk but that's the same with every goalie. I like the signing and I hope they sign Knies this off season as well. You try to project and get these guys signed before they really breakout like the big 3 did.

 

[bustaheims]

Doubtful. Sammy got 3.5M,(4.25%) after a decent season and a not so great playoff performance. The cap will have gone up twice since that contract was signed and Woll's new contract will begin. Contracts are based off cap % so if Woll has a season that's only just as good as Sammy he'll get 4.25% of the cap. At 88M that 3.74M. Leafs believe in Woll, that's clear. Yes there's risk but that's the same with every goalie. I like the signing and I hope they sign Knies this off season as well. You try to project and get these guys signed before they really breakout like the big 3 did.

Contracts are based on comparables more than anythign else, and the goalies who are likely to be Woll's comparables if he has a reasonably healthy season as a starting goalie are around $4.5M per season. The Leafs aren't saving themselves any sort of meaningful dollars getting this done now, but they are potentially hampering themselves if he can't take the next step or can't stay healthy enough to start - and, I know you're going to say "fine, he can just go on LTIR," but LTIR is only helpful if A) they have a capable replacement to step in or one is available cheap and B) he's out for at least the remainder of the season and they don't have to figure out a way to fit the contract under the cap once he returns.

 

[herman]

https://x.com/leafsnews/status/1805294823965921476

 

[cw]

There is risk with every contract. Leafs feel he's going to be the #1. Sometimes you gotta sign them early to not pay so much down the road.

There's no need to rush into this contract this summer, though. He's still signed through next season, and, he he shows himself to be a capable starter, then you sign him - and, unless he has a healthy, Vezina calibre season (which is unlikely), you still likely get him on a similar contract to this. It's just a completely unnecessary move at this point.

Doubtful. Sammy got 3.5M,(4.25%) after a decent season and a not so great playoff performance. The cap will have gone up twice since that contract was signed and Woll's new contract will begin. Contracts are based off cap % so if Woll has a season that's only just as good as Sammy he'll get 4.25% of the cap. At 88M that 3.74M. Leafs believe in Woll, that's clear. Yes there's risk but that's the same with every goalie. I like the signing and I hope they sign Knies this off season as well. You try to project and get these guys signed before they really breakout like the big 3 did.

4.25% of 92 mil (proj 2025-26 cap) = $3.91M is what he'd be looking at using that logic.
I think it would probably be higher than that because he has better, more consistent numbers.
Sammy bit on a 1 year deal, betting on himself. A 3 year deal for Sammy would have likely been lower.

Woll has had injury issues. In the 3 preceding seasons of his deal, Samsonov played 109 NHL or AHL games. Woll played 73. But if Woll plays much of this season, that injury issue largely goes out the window with an arbitrator. With 2 good RH dmen, his numbers are probably going to improve. He has good playoff numbers. He'll have significantly better numbers than Sammy over his career and the injury worries arguably largely behind him - IF he stays healthy. In that scenario, I think he'll be well north of $3.91M with an arbitrator (max 2 year deal).

The Leafs and Woll have something we don't: they know what the doctors said about him being injury prone. We do know that if they said "he'll never be healthy for a full season", I can't imagine them signing such a deal. Both parties would know that. OTH, Woll doesn't strike me as an emotional head case like Sammy or Jack Campbell - he's got that going for himself. To me, that medical info is critical to the risk assessment. For example, what if their doctors said "we got it figured out - if he does this, he'll be fine" We're never going to see that. So it is hard to be certain if the Leafs are over the top or not.

And we're doing all this talking about a signing rumour ... (things are slow before game 7 ...)

 

[lamajama]

I'm sorry but 3.5-4M for a guy with absolutely no track record is an absolutely terrible contract.  If that is legitimate this team's contention window is over.  The roster construction only works when you get to fill cheap holes.  Paying 4M to a guy who has a career high of 32 games played in a professional hockey season (2019-2022 in the AHL).

This organization can't help but pay people more than they need to all the time.  The stars don't take discounts.  Now we are paying Woll for the hypothetical of what if he can play 40+ games when he hasn't been able to do it in 5 professional seasons.  LTIR is fine but it doesn't replace the talent gap in the moment when your goalie goes down and we continue to have a thin prospect/pick pool to make trades to fill holes.

100%. Was coming to say this exact thing?.its a helluva gamble that he?s gonna stay healthy. Did management not ?try? prior to this to solve his injury issues or did just decide to try now? I highly doubt they didn?t address this previously which makes this all the more premature.

 

[Joe S.]

It?s stuff like this that doesn?t exactly drive my confidence in Treliving.

He seems to give strange contracts and make weak trades.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

100%. Was coming to say this exact thing....its a helluva gamble that he's gonna stay healthy. Did management not "try" prior to this to solve his injury issues or did just decide to try now? I highly doubt they didn't address this previously which makes this all the more premature.

Perhaps herman can help us out here because I seem to remember him posting the story about it: wasn't there something a year or so ago about Joseph Woll saying his body kinda just sucks and he's been working on certain stretches to help out with some of the injuries he's ran into? Or did I just make all of that up?

 

[4EVRLEAFAN]

Bad, bad signing. Uhg.

 

[Bullfrog]

100%. Was coming to say this exact thing....its a helluva gamble that he's gonna stay healthy. Did management not "try" prior to this to solve his injury issues or did just decide to try now? I highly doubt they didn't address this previously which makes this all the more premature.

Perhaps herman can help us out here because I seem to remember him posting the story about it: wasn't there something a year or so ago about Joseph Woll saying his body kinda just sucks and he's been working on certain stretches to help out with some of the injuries he's ran into? Or did I just make all of that up?

Other way around. He's extremely flexible and has to work on stabilizing and encapsulating his joints.

 

[herman]

100%. Was coming to say this exact thing....its a helluva gamble that he's gonna stay healthy. Did management not "try" prior to this to solve his injury issues or did just decide to try now? I highly doubt they didn't address this previously which makes this all the more premature.

Perhaps herman can help us out here because I seem to remember him posting the story about it: wasn't there something a year or so ago about Joseph Woll saying his body kinda just sucks and he's been working on certain stretches to help out with some of the injuries he's ran into? Or did I just make all of that up?

Yeah what Bullfrog said.

He is extremely flexible but when doing explosive movements, sometimes he goes a bit too far and has to work extra hard to keep himself ?contained?.

I?m no doctor, but I know hypermobility is thing that exists. He should be working on strengthening supporting musculature for said containment.

https://x.com/itsmitchmarney/status/1717788304005885955

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Cheers to you both. I was actually trying to remember exactly what the deal with that was about a month ago and tried searching to no avail. Knew I should have just asked about it here.

 

[L K]

Bottom line on that...it's a known issue but not a solved issue given his two injuries this year.  And my concern with banking on LTIR is far more about what happens when he gets hurt with 2 seconds left in a Game 6.  That doesn't help the team when a critical player can become u reliable because his body is too loose. 

LTIR only helps us if he's missing before the trade deadline and into the postseason or has a season ending injury

 

[Highlander]

Bottom line on that...it's a known issue but not a solved issue given his two injuries this year.  And my concern with banking on LTIR is far more about what happens when he gets hurt with 2 seconds left in a Game 6.  That doesn't help the team when a critical player can become u reliable because his body is too loose. 

LTIR only helps us if he's missing before the trade deadline and into the postseason or has a season ending injury


I think Brad said the Leafs were going to work with Woll this summer to address conditioning to avoid injuries

 

[herman]

https://x.com/reporterchris/status/1807781516807729321

 

[L K]

It's either going to be a fantastic deal if Woll can stay healthy, or a miserable one if he's a 20 game goalie who gets injured every time he goes cross crease.

 

[dappleganger]

It's either going to be a fantastic deal if Woll can stay healthy, or a miserable one if he's a 20 game goalie who gets injured every time he goes cross crease.

At least his $3.66m won't count against the cap on LTIR.

 

[cw]

I think the Leafs were smart to get this done as arbitration next year could have been ugly if he got a lot of starts in front of an improved D.
Given his injury history, I think it is a very fair deal for Woll. He's only played 36 NHL games plus 7 playoff games. He got $11 mil guaranteed if his body breaks down.

 

[ZBBM]

It's either going to be a fantastic deal if Woll can stay healthy, or a miserable one if he's a 20 game goalie who gets injured every time he goes cross crease.

It's a huge bet for a guy who's only played 36 games.  But what choice do they have?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

It's either going to be a fantastic deal if Woll can stay healthy, or a miserable one if he's a 20 game goalie who gets injured every time he goes cross crease.

It's a huge bet for a guy who's only played 36 games.  But what choice do they have?

Well the other choice is to just not extend him right now.

 

[dappleganger]

It's either going to be a fantastic deal if Woll can stay healthy, or a miserable one if he's a 20 game goalie who gets injured every time he goes cross crease.

It's a huge bet for a guy who's only played 36 games.  But what choice do they have?

You like what you've seen from Woll when you've seen it. Hopefully they can figure out how to keep him in the crease.