Leafs file for arbitration with Kulemin (Settlement reached, 2 years, 2.8 AAV)

[GhostofPotvin29]

His 30 goal season was likely a lot of luck, while last season was luck of an opposite kind.

I suspect he should be a 15-20 goal guy, with the potential in a good season to go 20+.

 

[rdowdall]

Looking at that video, it appears that Kulemin just wasn't going to the net as much this year.

I think though that it's probably more about the decreased effectiveness of that line as a whole though. When I watch that I see Kulemin scoring a ton of goals from in close because Mac/Grabo are playing so well with the puck and he can be that loose guy.

True.  Would you say one more than the other?  I thought Grabovski was pretty much his old self after a slow start.  Mac's assists were down, but was that because Kulemin wasn't scoring, or because Mac was making bad decisions with the puck?

 

[Kin]

True.  Would you say one more than the other?  I thought Grabovski was pretty much his old self after a slow start.  Mac's assists were down, but was that because Kulemin wasn't scoring, or because Mac was making bad decisions with the puck?

I don't know. I can't say it with any authority but just the imprint I have of last season isn't that I noticed a big change in Kulemin's game, just that I kept thinking of him as being unlucky.

 

[rdowdall]

True.  Would you say one more than the other?  I thought Grabovski was pretty much his old self after a slow start.  Mac's assists were down, but was that because Kulemin wasn't scoring, or because Mac was making bad decisions with the puck?

I don't know. I can't say it with any authority but just the imprint I have of last season isn't that I noticed a big change in Kulemin's game, just that I kept thinking of him as being unlucky.

I do think he was a bit unlucky, but to me, he seemed to be a split second behind where he should be.  I guess I shouldn't have said that he didn't go to the net, it was more that he didn't go to the net at the right time, which I guess could be attributed to luck or defencemen trying a little harder to stop him.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

This is what I was getting at about Kulemin being lucky 2 seasons ago, and unlucky this past season.  I knew I'd read it somewhere.  Caution: Advanced statistics ahead.

Nikolai Kulemin scored 30 goals in the 2011 NHL season, only to drop to seven in the very next year. A lot of this is due to the fact that Kulemin's 17.3% shooting rate from a season ago just wasn't sustainable and was bound to drop. It took quite a tumble, falling well below normal levels and landing at 6.5% on the season.

...

Kulemin had 217:55 of powerplay time in 2011, but last year, that was reduced to 60:25.

...

What are the odds that over one summer, Nikolai Kulemin suddenly forgot how to pick a corner, or decided he wasn't going to go into dirty areas, or had resigned himself to take only long, fluttering shots from the half circle? Zero. This is a case of pucks hopping over sticks in good areas, or goalies playing his shots just a little more sharp than they had been throughout his career.

http://theleafsnation.com/2012/6/27/assessing-nikolai-kulemin-part-i-shooting-and-scoring

 

[Tigger]

Interesting article, thanks for posting.

 

[leafplasma]

Yep, I wouldn't write off Kuli after 7 goals in 70 games.  We are glamouring for Getzlaf and his 11 goals in 82 games doing so with well over 6 minutes of ice time more per game.  They both had horrible seasons and these things happen.  Getzlaf was equally startling and with the kind of year he had and being a pending UFA, the price will never be lower if Burke is truly looking to acquire him.