Leafs @ Flyers - Nov. 10th, 7:30pm - SN, TSN 1050

[caver]

In my mind, he is moving ahead of Sandin on defence depth chart.  Maybe not as offensively gifted, but isn't outmuscled and pushed off puck as much as Sandin. Come playoff time I think he will be the better option for what this team needs in a bottom pairing role.

They compliment each other's game well. I don't think either would look as good without a partner with their respective skill sets.

Agreed... they work well together so far... and I think the regular ice time will make them better... and that gives the Leafs some options...

 

[Kin]

Right you are HL I think he had mono or something.  Talk then was either he was overrated or else Leafs got a steal.

Except it seems right now like the truth is probably more towards the overrated side of things. He's developing nicely and looks like he'll be a legit NHL defenseman but he's not really showing top 5 pick stuff either. Right now it looks like the idea that it was the mono that caused him to drop and not a re-evaluation of him that pegged him pretty fairly more towards the 10-20 range may not hold up well.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Right you are HL I think he had mono or something.  Talk then was either he was overrated or else Leafs got a steal.

Except it seems right now like the truth is probably more towards the overrated side of things. He's developing nicely and looks like he'll be a legit NHL defenseman but he's not really showing top 5 pick stuff either. Right now it looks like the idea that it was the mono that caused him to drop and not a re-evaluation of him that pegged him pretty fairly more towards the 10-20 range may not hold up well.

Bob McKenzie's midseason 2017 draft rankings had him ahead of Pettersson, Makar, and Heiskanen. So yeah mono or not it's safe to say those rankings were just wonky.

 

[Highlander]

Some very good players there, just think of all the top 4 picks in history who have become pumpkins. A lot of hit or miss.  Man I want to see Niemela with the Marlies next year so bad.

 

[Kin]

Some very good players there, just think of all the top 4 picks in history who have become pumpkins. A lot of hit or miss.

Honestly, I'm not so sure that's true or at least not anymore. I took a look back at all of the NHL drafts from 2016 back towards 2000(which would be 68 top 4 picks) and honestly the number of guys who didn't turn into at least decent NHL players is pretty small. There are some in there and there's 2012 which sticks out to people more than it should but honestly I'd say your chances of getting a good NHL player with a top 4 pick is probably at least 60% and at least an NHL regular is probably up around 85%

edit: Well, I'll show my work, I guess. To my mind this is the year by year breakdown of guys taken in the top 4 who you wouldn't necessarily look at and say "He was a good or even great NHL player"

2016: Puljujarvi
2015: Dylan Strome
2014: Sam Bennett
2013: None
2012: Yakupov, Reinhart, Murray, Galchenyuk
2011: None
2010: Gudbranson
2009: None
2008: Bogosian
2007: Hickey
2006: None
2005: Benoit Pouliot
2004: Cam Barker
2003: None
2002: None
2001: Svitov, Weiss
2000: None

So 14 of a possible 68. Of those 14, I think we can put Puljujarvi in the too early to judge category. Then there are five more who are at the very least competent NHL regulars(Bogosian, Gudbranson, Pouliot, Weiss, Murray) in minor roles and Dylan Strome seems like he could probably find his way into that category. So in terms of real whiffs I think you have 7 over 17 years.