Leafs @ Panthers - Apr. 10th, 7:30pm - LeafsTV, TSN 1050

[bustaheims]

So, in theory, they could win both their remaining games, and still get the number one pick at the draft.

In theory, but, the odds are already against them. The lower the pick they have going into the draft, the worse those odds get.

 

[Redleaf]

What is the lottery situation now Busta? Does every non-playoff team get a ball, and the winner can only move up 5 places?

No, that was the old lottery (well, sort of - it was weighted and 4 spots). Now they all get a weighted shot at the #1 pick.

Oh. I didn't know they could still get the top pick with a lottery win. Nice...

The big change is that last place now has a  25% chance to get #1 overall, before the changes it was 48%.

Gotcha. So, either way, it's best the Leafs finish as low as possible here. Better odds for the lottery and, even if they don't win it, they can still get a half decent pick between #8-12

 

[CarltonTheBear]

 

[Deebo]

What is the lottery situation now Busta? Does every non-playoff team get a ball, and the winner can only move up 5 places?

No, that was the old lottery (well, sort of - it was weighted and 4 spots). Now they all get a weighted shot at the #1 pick.

Oh. I didn't know they could still get the top pick with a lottery win. Nice...

The big change is that last place now has a  25% chance to get #1 overall, before the changes it was 48%.

Gotcha. So, either way, it's best the Leafs finish as low as possible here. Better odds for the lottery and, even if they don't win it, they can still get a half decent pick between #8-12

At this point, no matter what the result of the final games are, #1 will be a long shot for Toronto.

Absolute best case seems to be 4.7% chance at #1.

However, the lower in the standings they finish, the better the pick is if they don't win the lottery.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

But we're Leafs fans, and luck is always on the Leafs side!

 

[bustaheims]

Absolute best case seems to be 4.7% chance at #1.

6.2%, actually. There's a remote shot the Leafs could end up with the 6th pick heading into the lottery. It would require Carolina winning the rest of their games, though.

 

[Deebo]

Absolute best case seems to be 4.7% chance at #1.

6.2%, actually. There's a remote shot the Leafs could end up with the 6th pick heading into the lottery. It would require Carolina winning the rest of their games, though.

And the Leafs losing both of their games, and and other teams besides Carolina winning enough to pass the Leafs.

Carolina could also lose one in OT/SO

 

[Leaflifer]

Well, the Leafs are playing for pride now.

Unfortunately thay have none.

4 - 1 Panthers.

 

[ZBBM]

Does all this dismal draft pick talk really matter?  Is there anything to indicate that the talent available outside the top 5 isn't more or less the same down to 15 or 20?

 

[freer]

I would like to see Drew get win. I know it is better tank. I just cant do it. Kessel with a pair. GLG

 

[Jalili]

Does all this dismal draft pick talk really matter?  Is there anything to indicate that the talent available outside the top 5 isn't more or less the same down to 15 or 20?

We might be guilty of making a bigger deal of it than it really is, but there probably is a difference.

Without knowing the makeup of this year's draft class, generally speaking there's a sizeable drop-off roughly around the 8th-12th pick, depending on the year.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Does all this dismal draft pick talk really matter?  Is there anything to indicate that the talent available outside the top 5 isn't more or less the same down to 15 or 20?

Yes, its quite possible the players from 6-15 are all pretty equal.  But wouldn't you prefer to have an earlier choice to pick who stands out the most to you?

 

[bustaheims]

Does all this dismal draft pick talk really matter?  Is there anything to indicate that the talent available outside the top 5 isn't more or less the same down to 15 or 20?

Well, even if the talent is similar in that range, wouldn't you want to have as early a shot as possible so you can get the player your scouting team identifies as being the player that may be the best of the group? Assuming you can rely on your scouting, that is . . . but, that's an entirely different conversation.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Does all this dismal draft pick talk really matter?  Is there anything to indicate that the talent available outside the top 5 isn't more or less the same down to 15 or 20?

From what I've read about it lately I'll be pretty happy with a top-12 pick. I think we can get a pretty good player. Even if we slipped to 14 or something I think a good player will drop there. This draft actually seems to have some pretty good depth in the teens area.

 

[ZBBM]

Does all this dismal draft pick talk really matter?  Is there anything to indicate that the talent available outside the top 5 isn't more or less the same down to 15 or 20?

Yes, its quite possible the players from 6-15 are all pretty equal.  But wouldn't you prefer to have an earlier choice to pick who stands out the most to you?

Well, if there were a steep dropoff somewhere in the likely range sure.  There doesn't seem to be, so if your drafting philosophy is to take the best player available regardless of position, then it really shouldn't make any difference at all (assuming that teams ahead of you are looking to fill specific needs).

In this year's draft, unless we hit the lotto and move up I don't think it's going to matter much. 

BTW, there must be a website that shows how long of a career all the firstrounders have had.  I'd guess that after you get past the top 5 there's not much difference ? on average ? with the rest of the 1st round.

 

[bustaheims]

Michael_Traikos: Turns out Granberg is not playing.  Sounds like salary cap issues prevented call up. #Leafs

WEll, that seals it. Granberg is officially a bust.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Michael_Traikos: Turns out Granberg is not playing.  Sounds like salary cap issues prevented call up. #Leafs

That doesn't make much sense. D'Amigo was up a few days ago and Granberg's cap hit is smaller. And capgeek has the Leafs with a fair bit of space. Maybe he just couldn't make it to Florida in time.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Michael_Traikos: Turns out Granberg is not playing.  Sounds like salary cap issues prevented call up. #Leafs

That doesn't make much sense. D'Amigo was up a few days ago and Granberg's cap hit is smaller. And capgeek has the Leafs with a fair bit of space. Maybe he just couldn't make it to Florida in time.

I thought they had used up all their call-ups? 

And if he couldn't make it Mark Masters said his equipment was there.  Weird if that beat him there.

 

[bustaheims]

That doesn't make much sense. D'Amigo was up a few days ago and Granberg's cap hit is smaller. And capgeek has the Leafs with a fair bit of space. Maybe he just couldn't make it to Florida in time.

I wonder if maybe the Leafs got an exemption for the last game because of Ranger's illness and all the other injuries that the league isn't giving them now because they had time to adjust the roster to get in line with the cap. I'm not 100% sure about capgeek's numbers, either. They give the Leafs a lot of LTIR space, but, since the season ends so soon, I don't think any of the Leafs' injured players actually qualify for LTIR (none of them will have missed 10 games or 24 days before the season ends).

EDIT: Or, this just happened instead, for some reason:

mirtle: Trevor Smith has apparently been recalled by the Leafs. Now listed on their roster.

Maybe it was a paperwork issue? Wouldn't put it past this team to get that wrong.

ETID: Or . . .

markhmasters: So this Granberg thing: equipment was here & physically he was in Florida ? but as noted by others, not formally called up & won't play

 

[bakeapples]

Does all this dismal draft pick talk really matter?  Is there anything to indicate that the talent available outside the top 5 isn't more or less the same down to 15 or 20?

I agree but even if the Leafs won the lottery, at the draft we would probably end up hearing:

"With the 1st overall pick in the 2014 NHL Entry Draft, the Toronto Maple Leafs select Johnathan MacLeod from  the US Development U18 team"