Maple Leafs are better, but are they a playoff team?

[maplesyrup]

7-2-1 is 4 critical points better than 5-4-1. It is just too tempting to go back and compare to last years October/November/December

Here  is something else to think about. Last years team had to go 18 games to get their 7th win (7-8-3). So the next 8 games is a chance to really differentiate themselves from last years record..... which I think they are already doing.

Even if we just get 8 of those 16 possible points, it would be a huge difference.

 

[Fanatic]

The Leafs close out October with an 8-3-1 record. Last October was 5-4-1. October is a success!

Last November the Leafs went 3-7-3 and last December they went 5-8-0. This year the Leafs have 14 games in November and 13 in December. If the Leafs are indeed a playoff team then we should have a pretty fair idea of that within another month.

If they could manage a 9-5 record in November that would put them at 35 points after the first 25 games compared with just 22 points last year after 25 games (9-12-4).

No matter which way you look at this - year over year - if the Leafs are a playoff team they will make or break those chances in the coming month or two.

 

[Zee]

The Leafs close out October with an 8-3-1 record. Last October was 5-4-1. October is a success!

Last November the Leafs went 3-7-3 and last December they went 5-8-0. This year the Leafs have 14 games in November and 13 in December. If the Leafs are indeed a playoff team then we should have a pretty fair idea of that within another month.

If they could manage a 9-5 record in November that would put them at 35 points after the first 25 games compared with just 22 points last year after 25 games (9-12-4).

No matter which way you look at this - year over year - if the Leafs are a playoff team they will make or break those chances in the coming month or two.

So you're saying there's a chance!

 

[Erndog]

The Leafs close out October with an 8-3-1 record. Last October was 5-4-1. October is a success!

Last November the Leafs went 3-7-3 and last December they went 5-8-0. This year the Leafs have 14 games in November and 13 in December. If the Leafs are indeed a playoff team then we should have a pretty fair idea of that within another month.

If they could manage a 9-5 record in November that would put them at 35 points after the first 25 games compared with just 22 points last year after 25 games (9-12-4).

No matter which way you look at this - year over year - if the Leafs are a playoff team they will make or break those chances in the coming month or two.

Small correction - we are actually 7-3-1.

Either way, we can't have November and December repeats from the last few seasons.

 

[Fanatic]

The Leafs close out October with an 8-3-1 record. Last October was 5-4-1. October is a success!

Last November the Leafs went 3-7-3 and last December they went 5-8-0. This year the Leafs have 14 games in November and 13 in December. If the Leafs are indeed a playoff team then we should have a pretty fair idea of that within another month.

If they could manage a 9-5 record in November that would put them at 35 points after the first 25 games compared with just 22 points last year after 25 games (9-12-4).

No matter which way you look at this - year over year - if the Leafs are a playoff team they will make or break those chances in the coming month or two.

Small correction - we are actually 7-3-1.

Either way, we can't have November and December repeats from the last few seasons.

Hanging my head in shame.... too many distractions at work. 

I hate it when work gets in the way of my Leafs thoughts. Crazy job!

 

[McPwnage]

well we're not a playoff team if we can't improve our pk, seriously it is getting rediclous

 

[Zee]

well we're not a playoff team if we can't improve our pk, seriously it is getting rediclous

You're telling me 27th in the league in PK isn't going to cut it?

 

[Corn Flake]

well we're not a playoff team if we can't improve our pk, seriously it is getting rediclous

To me it looked like they were trying out some strategies they had worked on in practice and there are kinks to work out. It actually looked better than it had in previous games save for some hiccups. Takes a while to learn and apply big changes.  I think the biggest issue was simply losing races to loose pucks, or missing great opportunities to clear the zone.  Best PK's are the ones when the opponent spends more time out of your zone than in. 

On one of the two PP goals, Komisarek whiffed completely on picking up the puck when nobody was near him, lost the race to it in the corner and the goal came a few passes later.  there was a lot of that going on all night.. not just him and not just the PK.

 

[Bender]

well we're not a playoff team if we can't improve our pk, seriously it is getting rediclous

To me it looked like they were trying out some strategies they had worked on in practice and there are kinks to work out. It actually looked better than it had in previous games save for some hiccups. Takes a while to learn and apply big changes.  I think the biggest issue was simply losing races to loose pucks, or missing great opportunities to clear the zone.  Best PK's are the ones when the opponent spends more time out of your zone than in. 

On one of the two PP goals, Komisarek whiffed completely on picking up the puck when nobody was near him, lost the race to it in the corner and the goal came a few passes later.  there was a lot of that going on all night.. not just him and not just the PK.

Yeah, they were outworked on 2/3 goals. Even that bad goal began with Lombardi trying to play hero even though his legs were dead tired. Instead of chipping it in he was carrying it through the neutral zone and had his pocket picked by fresher legs.

 

[Corn Flake]

well we're not a playoff team if we can't improve our pk, seriously it is getting rediclous

To me it looked like they were trying out some strategies they had worked on in practice and there are kinks to work out. It actually looked better than it had in previous games save for some hiccups. Takes a while to learn and apply big changes.  I think the biggest issue was simply losing races to loose pucks, or missing great opportunities to clear the zone.  Best PK's are the ones when the opponent spends more time out of your zone than in. 

On one of the two PP goals, Komisarek whiffed completely on picking up the puck when nobody was near him, lost the race to it in the corner and the goal came a few passes later.  there was a lot of that going on all night.. not just him and not just the PK.

Yeah, they were outworked on 2/3 goals. Even that bad goal began with Lombardi trying to play hero even though his legs were dead tired. Instead of chipping it in he was carrying it through the neutral zone and had his pocket picked by fresher legs.

Yeah they were outworked most of the night to loose pucks all over the place.  Paul MacLean has done a good job of adopting the Red Wings style of puck pursuit with this team and its showing... Leafs looked just a half gear slower than they did on Saturday and weren't able to handle the Sens aggressiveness.... but those are the types of games you need a Reimer type goalie to steal for you. 

 

[Optimus Reimer]

well we're not a playoff team if we can't improve our pk, seriously it is getting rediclous

To me it looked like they were trying out some strategies they had worked on in practice and there are kinks to work out. It actually looked better than it had in previous games save for some hiccups. Takes a while to learn and apply big changes.  I think the biggest issue was simply losing races to loose pucks, or missing great opportunities to clear the zone.  Best PK's are the ones when the opponent spends more time out of your zone than in. 

On one of the two PP goals, Komisarek whiffed completely on picking up the puck when nobody was near him, lost the race to it in the corner and the goal came a few passes later.  there was a lot of that going on all night.. not just him and not just the PK.

Yeah, they were outworked on 2/3 goals. Even that bad goal began with Lombardi trying to play hero even though his legs were dead tired. Instead of chipping it in he was carrying it through the neutral zone and had his pocket picked by fresher legs.

Yeah they were outworked most of the night to loose pucks all over the place.  Paul MacLean has done a good job of adopting the Red Wings style of puck pursuit with this team and its showing... Leafs looked just a half gear slower than they did on Saturday and weren't able to handle the Sens aggressiveness.... but those are the types of games you need a Reimer type goalie to steal for you.

The Monster kept the Leafs in the game, and I thought he did his part.  It was up to the players to get the tying goal, and they did not do it.  Even if Optimus Reime was in net, I think the turds would have still beat the Leafs.

 

[Optimus Reimer]

I've been ragging on the Leafs and their system of moving the puck out of their end to create offensive scoring chances, but in the past few games, I thought the Leafs have done a much better job.  There will always be hiccups here or there, but overall, the Leafs are definitely a better team.  I still project the Leafs to be between 5th and 8th - there are too many good teams in the East that I think are better than the Leafs.

 

[jonlleafs]

well we're not a playoff team if we can't improve our pk, seriously it is getting rediclous

To me it looked like they were trying out some strategies they had worked on in practice and there are kinks to work out. It actually looked better than it had in previous games save for some hiccups. Takes a while to learn and apply big changes.  I think the biggest issue was simply losing races to loose pucks, or missing great opportunities to clear the zone.  Best PK's are the ones when the opponent spends more time out of your zone than in. 

On one of the two PP goals, Komisarek whiffed completely on picking up the puck when nobody was near him, lost the race to it in the corner and the goal came a few passes later.  there was a lot of that going on all night.. not just him and not just the PK.

Yeah, they were outworked on 2/3 goals. Even that bad goal began with Lombardi trying to play hero even though his legs were dead tired. Instead of chipping it in he was carrying it through the neutral zone and had his pocket picked by fresher legs.

Yeah they were outworked most of the night to loose pucks all over the place.  Paul MacLean has done a good job of adopting the Red Wings style of puck pursuit with this team and its showing... Leafs looked just a half gear slower than they did on Saturday and weren't able to handle the Sens aggressiveness.... but those are the types of games you need a Reimer type goalie to steal for you.

The Monster kept the Leafs in the game, and I thought he did his part.  It was up to the players to get the tying goal, and they did not do it.  Even if Optimus Reime was in net, I think the turds would have still beat the Leafs.

I dunno, that 3rd goal given up by Gus was a bad goal.  That one really bugged me.  Why did he have to shift his whole body over when all he had to do was use his glove?  Made no sense at all especially from where the shot was taken.

 

[Tigger]

It was a bad goal but I think the shot was deflected and perhaps partially screened/lost against a dark spot. Goose really didn't look like he saw it cleanly and it may have been a bit of a change up coming in.

Goose needs to eliminate the softies if he wants to be a starter but he's keeping the Leafs in the games and right now I think that's enough.

 

[Redleaf]

well we're not a playoff team if we can't improve our pk, seriously it is getting rediclous

To me it looked like they were trying out some strategies they had worked on in practice and there are kinks to work out. It actually looked better than it had in previous games save for some hiccups. Takes a while to learn and apply big changes.  I think the biggest issue was simply losing races to loose pucks, or missing great opportunities to clear the zone.  Best PK's are the ones when the opponent spends more time out of your zone than in. 

On one of the two PP goals, Komisarek whiffed completely on picking up the puck when nobody was near him, lost the race to it in the corner and the goal came a few passes later.  there was a lot of that going on all night.. not just him and not just the PK.

Yeah, they were outworked on 2/3 goals. Even that bad goal began with Lombardi trying to play hero even though his legs were dead tired. Instead of chipping it in he was carrying it through the neutral zone and had his pocket picked by fresher legs.

Yeah they were outworked most of the night to loose pucks all over the place.  Paul MacLean has done a good job of adopting the Red Wings style of puck pursuit with this team and its showing... Leafs looked just a half gear slower than they did on Saturday and weren't able to handle the Sens aggressiveness.... but those are the types of games you need a Reimer type goalie to steal for you.

The Monster kept the Leafs in the game, and I thought he did his part.  It was up to the players to get the tying goal, and they did not do it.  Even if Optimus Reime was in net, I think the turds would have still beat the Leafs.

I dunno, that 3rd goal given up by Gus was a bad goal.  That one really bugged me.  Why did he have to shift his whole body over when all he had to do was use his glove?  Made no sense at all especially from where the shot was taken.

Unfortunately his soft goals are often glaring soft goals. Reimer lets the bad ones in too, its just not done in such dramatic fashion. Gus had been playing very well of late. Its just too bad the ones he lets in are so deflating. Hopefully he can iron out the kinks in his game soon. If he can we'll have goalies 1a and 1b. If he can't we'll need a goalie better suited for the 2a job, whose confidence doesn't deteriorate with lack of ice time.

 

[princedpw]

When it comes to the playoff chase, the way I assess progress is to count games over .500. 16 games over .500 by season end (+2 every 10 games) and your team is a virtual lock for the playoffs.  12 games over could get you in as well unless you are in a fairly strong conference or the number of OT/SO games continues to climb.

  The Leafs did the job in the first 10. Let's hope they continue it in the next 10.  A 6-4 split would be great for games 11-20.

 

[maplesyrup]

What is that site that calculates playoff probability again and where do we currently sit?

 

[cw]

What is that site that calculates playoff probability again and where do we currently sit?

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

http://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

 

[maplesyrup]

What is that site that calculates playoff probability again and where do we currently sit?

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

http://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

Thanks... 82.7%!

 

[Optimus Reimer]

If the Leafs play .500 the rest of the season, they will have 88 points which should be 5 points below what they need. 

I did rag on the team at the beginning of the season because it seemed that they needed a road map to get out of their end of the ice, and I was concerned that other teams would focus on that.  It still happens once in a while, but lately, the Leafs have been a much better team and it has to do with the goaltending.  The players realize that whoever is in net will make the big save when required and that gives the team a decent chance of winning.

One thing I would like to see is for the Leafs to win at least half their games against Philly, Boston and Buffalo - teams that gave the Leafs problems in the past.  That would be a definite sign the team will make some noise in the playoffs.