Maple Leafs are better, but are they a playoff team?

[Bender]

Here's the standings by points win%
1 NY RANGERS 0.719
2 PITTSBURGH 0.694
3 PHILADELPHIA 0.676
4 WASHINGTON 0.656
5 BUFFALO 0.647
6 FLORIDA 0.618
7 TORONTO 0.611
8 BOSTON 0.563
9 NEW JERSEY 0.531
10 TAMPA BAY 0.529
11 OTTAWA 0.500
12 MONTREAL 0.500
13 CAROLINA 0.417
14 WINNIPEG 0.417
15 NY ISLANDERS 0.367

I see no reason why I shouldn't declare the top four as close to locks for the playoffs this season (ignoring catastrophic injuries).

If Miller is able to return and find his form, Buffalo seems safe to me and Enroth is playing as I expected he would: well. So there's no obvious sign the Sabres will tank.

Boston has woken up and I expect they're very likely to be secure for a post season berth.

These teams seem to be in decent position to fight for the last two spots:

FLORIDA 0.618
TORONTO 0.611
NEW JERSEY 0.531
TAMPA BAY 0.529
OTTAWA 0.500
MONTREAL 0.500

From that, we might be back to where we started when discussing the Leafs prospects for the playoffs this season: if they get decent goaltending, they've still got a decent shot.

If one of these three things happen:
a) if Reimer can return relatively soon and play well
b) if Scrivens or Gustavsson can play better
c) if Burke can find a goalie who can step in and help
it improves the defence and PK - the two worst aspects/biggest weaknesses of this club. So I've come full circle.

But isn't that what most reasonable fans felt was going to happen? We got off to a hot start and are back to where we started, and we're still afloat without a starting goaltender for what, ten games now?

I'd say that's not bad at all. I'm all for getting Nabokov or another goaltending option, but if they have to tread water for the immediate future while waiting for Reimer, so be it.

I think a lot of people grew accustomed to the Leafs being so hot out of the gate that their perception of the team changed to being a world beater, when it never was the case. Now that we're back to where we thought we'd be there's calls for Wilson to get axed because he can't coach.

But if we're par for the course so far (again, without a starter) then what's the issue?

 

[Number 5]

But if we're par for the course so far (again, without a starter) then what's the issue?

Isn't that the problem? That we're par for the course?

 

[Bender]

But if we're par for the course so far (again, without a starter) then what's the issue?

Isn't that the problem? That we're par for the course?

I thought the reason for that problem was that we don't have a starting goaltender.

 

[skrackle]

If the Leafs can maintain a challenge for a playoff spot, then that's about in line with expectations for this season. Right now, they are still doing so.

I'm still waiting to see if they are just cooling off after a hot start, or if they are in the process of bottoming out again. They should be capable of preventing that from happening this year, but the Reimer injury has clouded the picture.

Injuries are starting to pile up. It's questionable as to whether the Leafs have sufficient depth to overcome them, and whether Burke can or should attempt to trade for help. Overpayment is always a danger when trying to solve problems by trading, but then Burke is a master at this game.

Hard to say where things are going right now. Nov/Dec defined the Leafs season last year, and may well do so again.

 

[Bender]

It seems that they are not a playoff team. Time will tell, but it is starting to look a lot like another season that will be over by Christmas (or sooner).

*Facepalm

 

[rdowdall]

It seems that they are not a playoff team. Time will tell, but it is starting to look a lot like another season that will be over by Christmas (or sooner).

*Facepalm

Ah, but at least there are no "Who is Boston going to draf tin the top 5 this year?" jokes.....yet.

 

[hockeyfan1]

Here's the standings by points win%
1  NY RANGERS  0.719
2  PITTSBURGH  0.694
3  PHILADELPHIA  0.676
4  WASHINGTON  0.656
5  BUFFALO  0.647
6  FLORIDA  0.618
7  TORONTO  0.611
8  BOSTON  0.563
9  NEW JERSEY  0.531
10  TAMPA BAY  0.529
11  OTTAWA  0.500
12  MONTREAL  0.500
13  CAROLINA  0.417
14  WINNIPEG  0.417
15  NY ISLANDERS  0.367

I see no reason why I shouldn't declare the top four as close to locks for the playoffs this season (ignoring catastrophic injuries).

If Miller is able to return and find his form, Buffalo seems safe to me and Enroth is playing as I expected he would: well. So there's no obvious sign the Sabres will tank.

Boston has woken up and I expect they're very likely to be secure for a post season berth.

These teams seem to be in decent position to fight for the last two spots:

FLORIDA  0.618
TORONTO  0.611
NEW JERSEY  0.531
TAMPA BAY  0.529
OTTAWA  0.500
MONTREAL  0.500

From that, we might be back to where we started when discussing the Leafs prospects for the playoffs this season: if they get decent goaltending, they've still got a decent shot.

If one of these three things happen:
a) if Reimer can return relatively soon and play well
b) if Scrivens or Gustavsson can play better
c) if Burke can find a goalie who can step in and help
it improves the defence and PK - the two worst aspects/biggest weaknesses of this club. So I've come full circle.

I can't believe the Islanders are that dismal!  Were supposed to be improved from last season.  Cripes!  Same old results!

 

[Fanatic]

I know it is terribly unpopular here to state your gut feeling if it is negative.... but... I have a feeling that the Leafs will fall below 8th in the conference standings within a few more days and they may not be back again anytime this year.

Defense - great puck moving d men - but not enough D in the d men

Offense - completely anemic - without Phil's early season streak they would have been done a long time ago.

Goaltending - it's a bit of a crap shoot, but no one (including Reimer) is good enough to bail them out of their troubles most nights - the last time the Leafs had a goalie that good he was called The Eagle

Unless something changes, the Leafs won't make the playoffs this year.

 

[Boston Leaf]

I know it is terribly unpopular here to state your gut feeling if it is negative.... but... I have a feeling that the Leafs will fall below 8th in the conference standings within a few more days and they may not be back again anytime this year.

Defense - great puck moving d men - but not enough D in the d men

Offense - completely anemic - without Phil's early season streak they would have been done a long time agi

Goaltending - it's a bit of a crap shoot, but no one (including Reimer) is good enough to bail them out of their troubles most nights - the last time the Leafs had a goalie that good he was called The Eagle

Unless something changes, the Leafs won't make the playoffs this year.

I agree

 

[Optimus Reimer]

If the plan at the start of the season was to be at the top, or near the top of the standings after the first 10 games, then nosedive to near the bottom of the standings by January, get Reimer back, then go on the drive to 9th by the end of the season, the plan is on track.

If anyone thinks this team is a playoff team, needs Lasik.  They have the players to be a playoff team, they just aren't playing as a playoff team.

 

[nutman]

If the plan at the start of the season was to be at the top, or near the top of the standings after the first 10 games, then nosedive to near the bottom of the standings by January, get Reimer back, then go on the drive to 9th by the end of the season, the plan is on track.

If anyone thinks this team is a playoff team, needs Lasik.  They have the players to be a playoff team, they just aren't playing as a playoff team.

I think we will see the Leafs finish in the top six this season.

 

[Bender]

I know it is terribly unpopular here to state your gut feeling if it is negative.... but... I have a feeling that the Leafs will fall below 8th in the conference standings within a few more days and they may not be back again anytime this year.

Defense - great puck moving d men - but not enough D in the d men

Offense - completely anemic - without Phil's early season streak they would have been done a long time ago.

Goaltending - it's a bit of a crap shoot, but no one (including Reimer) is good enough to bail them out of their troubles most nights - the last time the Leafs had a goalie that good he was called The Eagle

Unless something changes, the Leafs won't make the playoffs this year.

At the same time it's almost like you can't accept that the Leafs will go through adversity this year. There will be losing streaks, it happens to even the best teams. It's how you bounce back and if you can minimize losing streaks going forward that matters.

And in regards to the sense that they'll go on more protracted losing streaks, these are just ifs and buts right now, and a lot of it is circumstantial. Reimer being out, or any team's starter being out, compounded with injuries, will see the team treading water and that's the way it is when you don't have the depth of the Pittsburgh Penguins.


Yeah, it's a dogfight, but I'm not willing to be pessimistic with the Leafs still playing .600 hockey. It's not like we have to claw our way back 10pts back like last year.

 

[Fanatic]

Yeah, it's a dogfight, but I'm not willing to be pessimistic with the Leafs still playing .600 hockey. It's not like we have to claw our way back 10pts back like last year.

Through ups and downs (wins and losses) I still want to see fundamentals in place and still see a solid effort for 60 minutes.

I have been very impressed with the past two games. Even the loss to Nashville showed some good signs of resiliency. No one expected them to win last night. No one expected a great game from Gus last night. But this afternoon a win is expected. What will they do with that? If they continue to play solidly as a team for 60 minutes per game then I am a lot more hopeful.

 

[Fanatic]

The Leafs are one of just two teams that currently sit in a playoff spot and have more goals against than goals for. Still a -5 even after last night.

If they keep working hard and playing like the past two nights (particularly against Nashville) then I think this will change.

 

[Fanatic]

I wish I could have the list of "The Good" outweigh "The Bad" but at this point I just don't know how anyone could do that. Feel free to add to the either list if you think I am missing something

The Good:
- I know that not all teams have played 21 games but the fact remains that they are 5th in the Eastern Conference and 8th overall in the league in points
- Phil Kessel has been fantastic and has found himself a real partner with Lupul
- they are showing that there are NHL quality assets to be called up when needed (Colborne, Frattin, Crabb, Scrivens etc.)
- the team looks like a team - they appear to all get along and share in each other's successes
- PP is very respectable at 6th in the NHL (20.5%)
- Goals for is 4th in the NHL
- 5 on 5 GF/GA is 15th in the NHL - not great, but it is decent

The Bad
- without Phil Kessel where would they be - Kessel figures in on 46% of all Leafs goals
- to follow up on that point - where is Kulemin, Grabo (before injury) etc.?
- 69 Goals Against is 27th in NHL and just one shy of 30th
- in spite of a 7-1 win against Caps - 63 goals for and 69 against - an old problem
- inconsistent play - one night they show up and work hard and the next night they look like they are on a combination of sleeping pills and Nyquil
- PK is improving but stil 27th in NHL (76.0%)

When I review this I think that if the PK could stay under control and if they could find any secondary scoring at all they would actually be okay.

Here is hoping!!  ;D

 

[Fanatic]

I think it was Scotty Bowman that used to say that if your PK and your PP added up to 100% you would probably do okay. The Leafs are at 96.5% - if the PK improves they can be at 100%+

 

[Deebo]

I wish I could have the list of "The Good" outweigh "The Bad" but at this point I just don't know how anyone could do that. Feel free to add to the either list if you think I am missing something

The Good:
- I know that not all teams have played 21 games but the fact remains that they are 5th in the Eastern Conference and 8th overall in the league in points
- Phil Kessel has been fantastic and has found himself a real partner with Lupul
- they are showing that there are NHL quality assets to be called up when needed (Colborne, Frattin, Crabb, Scrivens etc.)
- the team looks like a team - they appear to all get along and share in each other's successes
- PP is very respectable at 6th in the NHL (20.5%)
- Goals for is 4th in the NHL
- 5 on 5 GF/GA is 15th in the NHL - not great, but it is decent

The Bad
- without Phil Kessel where would they be - Kessel figures in on 46% of all Leafs goals
- to follow up on that point - where is Kulemin, Grabo (before injury) etc.?
- 69 Goals Against is 27th in NHL and just one shy of 30th
- in spite of a 7-1 win against Caps - 63 goals for and 69 against - an old problem
- inconsistent play - one night they show up and work hard and the next night they look like they are on a combination of sleeping pills and Nyquil
- PK is improving but stil 27th in NHL (76.0%)

When I review this I think that if the PK could stay under control and if they could find any secondary scoring at all they would actually be okay.

Here is hoping!!  ;D

Your list has 7 good points and 6 bad points and your list of bad points has repetition, points 1 & 2 are both secondary scoring and points 3 & 4 are both goals against being too hgh.

 

[Fanatic]

I wish I could have the list of "The Good" outweigh "The Bad" but at this point I just don't know how anyone could do that. Feel free to add to the either list if you think I am missing something

The Good:
- I know that not all teams have played 21 games but the fact remains that they are 5th in the Eastern Conference and 8th overall in the league in points
- Phil Kessel has been fantastic and has found himself a real partner with Lupul
- they are showing that there are NHL quality assets to be called up when needed (Colborne, Frattin, Crabb, Scrivens etc.)
- the team looks like a team - they appear to all get along and share in each other's successes
- PP is very respectable at 6th in the NHL (20.5%)
- Goals for is 4th in the NHL
- 5 on 5 GF/GA is 15th in the NHL - not great, but it is decent

The Bad
- without Phil Kessel where would they be - Kessel figures in on 46% of all Leafs goals
- to follow up on that point - where is Kulemin, Grabo (before injury) etc.?
- 69 Goals Against is 27th in NHL and just one shy of 30th
- in spite of a 7-1 win against Caps - 63 goals for and 69 against - an old problem
- inconsistent play - one night they show up and work hard and the next night they look like they are on a combination of sleeping pills and Nyquil
- PK is improving but stil 27th in NHL (76.0%)

When I review this I think that if the PK could stay under control and if they could find any secondary scoring at all they would actually be okay.

Here is hoping!!  ;D

Your list has 7 good points and 6 bad points and your list of bad points has repetition, points 1 & 2 are both secondary scoring and points 3 & 4 are both goals against being too hgh.

So you would agree that I did a fair job on this.

Whether the good actually outweighs the bad is a matter for debate. In the most simple terms the answer is that so far it does because the Leafs are in a playoff spot today. Whether or not you believe that they can continue to hold in a playoff spot in spite of the GF, PK and secondary scoring issues is where the real rub lies. I don't think so. I just don't see how a team that bad defensively can make the playoffs.

 

[Deebo]

I wish I could have the list of "The Good" outweigh "The Bad" but at this point I just don't know how anyone could do that. Feel free to add to the either list if you think I am missing something

The Good:
- I know that not all teams have played 21 games but the fact remains that they are 5th in the Eastern Conference and 8th overall in the league in points
- Phil Kessel has been fantastic and has found himself a real partner with Lupul
- they are showing that there are NHL quality assets to be called up when needed (Colborne, Frattin, Crabb, Scrivens etc.)
- the team looks like a team - they appear to all get along and share in each other's successes
- PP is very respectable at 6th in the NHL (20.5%)
- Goals for is 4th in the NHL
- 5 on 5 GF/GA is 15th in the NHL - not great, but it is decent

The Bad
- without Phil Kessel where would they be - Kessel figures in on 46% of all Leafs goals
- to follow up on that point - where is Kulemin, Grabo (before injury) etc.?
- 69 Goals Against is 27th in NHL and just one shy of 30th
- in spite of a 7-1 win against Caps - 63 goals for and 69 against - an old problem
- inconsistent play - one night they show up and work hard and the next night they look like they are on a combination of sleeping pills and Nyquil
- PK is improving but stil 27th in NHL (76.0%)

When I review this I think that if the PK could stay under control and if they could find any secondary scoring at all they would actually be okay.

Here is hoping!!  ;D

Your list has 7 good points and 6 bad points and your list of bad points has repetition, points 1 & 2 are both secondary scoring and points 3 & 4 are both goals against being too hgh.

So you would agree that I did a fair job on this.

Whether the good actually outweighs the bad is a matter for debate. In the most simple terms the answer is that so far it does because the Leafs are in a playoff spot today. Whether or not you believe that they can continue to hold in a playoff spot in spite of the GF, PK and secondary scoring issues is where the real rub lies. I don't think so. I just don't see how a team that bad defensively can make the playoffs.

You said the you don't see how anyone could say the good outweighs the bad, then you made a list where the good weighed out the bad.

 

[Fanatic]

You said the you don't see how anyone could say the good outweighs the bad, then you made a list where the good weighed out the bad.

Seriously? So you think that one point always equals one against another point?

Anyways..... I think there are three keys to making the playoffs from where they stand now:

1. Secondary scoring - don't care if it is Garbo's line or some other line - as long as another line is scoring
2. PK must continue like it has over the past 3 or 4 games
3. Solid goaltending - hoping a healthy Reimer is back soon