Maple Leafs are better, but are they a playoff team?

[Tigger]

I don't think it's somewhere in between, I think it's closer to the lower end.

Fwiw that actually does count as being somewhere in between...

 

[L K]

It hit me last night.  We aren't a playoff team.  And it's not because of 1 loss or anything but I've come to grips with a lot of things lately.  Since the first 2-3 weeks of the year we've been a .500 team (worse!).  We just have too many holes to plug, and too many teams around us are winning now (Ottawa, Washington, NJ, etc).

We still need a #1 center, a power forward, heck any sort of team toughness, and probably above all, consistent goaltending.  Our goaltending might be okay if we were a powerhouse offensively or if we allowed the least shots on goal or something but we're neither.  We need above average goaltending 9 games out of 10 and we just aren't getting it.

So no, this isn't a chicken little post or anything but I've really been looking at things objectively lately and I don't see a playoff team here.  I do see a decent young team (last night Phaneuf was our oldest Dman at what?  26?), some moveable parts, some good guys going forward but as it stands, today, this is not a playoff team.

I'm with you 100% - My feelings exactly. I think the difference here is that we have more "parts" that real contenders may want for their run than we did last year so in that regard, YAY?

I would think so.  Grabovski immediately comes to mind but really, what is he worth?  Would some team give us a late 1st for him?  Even if they did, is that worth it to us or do we try to extend him?

Same can be said for Liles.  If we get a 2nd for him... whoopdy doo... chances are that 2nd won't turn into a Lucic/Bergeron type.

Those 2 are really the only 2 I think that might have some decent value and we would consider moving.

I think you need to turf MacArthur, and quite frankly, if someone would take Connolly, I would get rid of him too.  He's not bad, but he doesn't seem to work with Kessel and isn't a long-term solution player.

Personally, I would like to keep Grabovski, he's not a smasher physically but he plays the game the right way and he's one of the few guys who throws his body at guys AND is willing to take contact to make plays.  That and I think he's really become a decent two-way player since his first few games in Toronto.

I like Bozak and I wouldn't mind keeping him, but if you can get something decent for him, I would consider it too.

Guys I probably wouldn't trade: Kessel, Phaneuf, Gunnarsson, Franson (mostly that I don't think you get value back for trading him), Kulemin (I would trade him, but it would be for a player improvement via a package not for youth/prospects).  Beyond that, I would offer anyone else up on the team if someone was interested.

 

[bustaheims]

For me that wouldn't be the end of the world if it happened and for others it could even be a happy dance day as Wilson would likely be gone.

Last year Burke made a similar determination and I think it had a net benefit, one more year like that could be a good thing overall for long term success.

Yeah, as much as I'd like the Leafs to make the playoffs, the potential returns from moving Liles, Grabovski, whoever at the deadline could very well be that much more beneficial to the team in terms of becoming long-term contenders - and, that's a much bigger concern to me than just making the playoffs this season.

 

[Erndog]

It hit me last night.  We aren't a playoff team.  And it's not because of 1 loss or anything but I've come to grips with a lot of things lately.  Since the first 2-3 weeks of the year we've been a .500 team (worse!).  We just have too many holes to plug, and too many teams around us are winning now (Ottawa, Washington, NJ, etc).

We still need a #1 center, a power forward, heck any sort of team toughness, and probably above all, consistent goaltending.  Our goaltending might be okay if we were a powerhouse offensively or if we allowed the least shots on goal or something but we're neither.  We need above average goaltending 9 games out of 10 and we just aren't getting it.

So no, this isn't a chicken little post or anything but I've really been looking at things objectively lately and I don't see a playoff team here.  I do see a decent young team (last night Phaneuf was our oldest Dman at what?  26?), some moveable parts, some good guys going forward but as it stands, today, this is not a playoff team.

I'm with you 100% - My feelings exactly. I think the difference here is that we have more "parts" that real contenders may want for their run than we did last year so in that regard, YAY?

I would think so.  Grabovski immediately comes to mind but really, what is he worth?  Would some team give us a late 1st for him?  Even if they did, is that worth it to us or do we try to extend him?

Same can be said for Liles.  If we get a 2nd for him... whoopdy doo... chances are that 2nd won't turn into a Lucic/Bergeron type.

Those 2 are really the only 2 I think that might have some decent value and we would consider moving.

I think you need to turf MacArthur, and quite frankly, if someone would take Connolly, I would get rid of him too.  He's not bad, but he doesn't seem to work with Kessel and isn't a long-term solution player.

Personally, I would like to keep Grabovski, he's not a smasher physically but he plays the game the right way and he's one of the few guys who throws his body at guys AND is willing to take contact to make plays.  That and I think he's really become a decent two-way player since his first few games in Toronto.

Yeah, I agree.  Mac and Connolly can go absolutely.  I'd sooner hang onto Grabs then trade him for another Luca Caputi or Suglobov scenerio.  He's worth more to us than some random B prospect or 2nd round pick.

 

[Tigger]

Championship caliber!

Which has been noted, in spite of your sarcasm, as being something the Leafs aren't pretty freaking consistently.

 

[L K]

For me that wouldn't be the end of the world if it happened and for others it could even be a happy dance day as Wilson would likely be gone.

Last year Burke made a similar determination and I think it had a net benefit, one more year like that could be a good thing overall for long term success.

Yeah, as much as I'd like the Leafs to make the playoffs, the potential returns from moving Liles, Grabovski, whoever at the deadline could very well be that much more beneficial to the team in terms of becoming long-term contenders - and, that's a much bigger concern to me than just making the playoffs this season.

I guess my one counter to that would be that I think it is unfortunate that we would essentially be half tearing down the roster for the 3rd or 4th time since JFJ was fired without once firing the coach to see if maybe it was that his message/system just wasn't getting the team up to that next level.  I don't think the Leafs have ever quit on Wilson like the Penguins looked before they brought in Bylsma, but it's that one big "what if" I have with the team. 

 

[Tigger]

For me that wouldn't be the end of the world if it happened and for others it could even be a happy dance day as Wilson would likely be gone.

Last year Burke made a similar determination and I think it had a net benefit, one more year like that could be a good thing overall for long term success.

Yeah, as much as I'd like the Leafs to make the playoffs, the potential returns from moving Liles, Grabovski, whoever at the deadline could very well be that much more beneficial to the team in terms of becoming long-term contenders - and, that's a much bigger concern to me than just making the playoffs this season.

I guess my one counter to that would be that I think it is unfortunate that we would essentially be half tearing down the roster for the 3rd or 4th time since JFJ was fired without once firing the coach to see if maybe it was that his message/system just wasn't getting the team up to that next level.  I don't think the Leafs have ever quit on Wilson like the Penguins looked before they brought in Bylsma, but it's that one big "what if" I have with the team.

I don't think it would get close to 'half' tearing down the team should the Leafs falter, I think a lot of the assessment of the group is pretty accurate and they need to improve in a few areas but not near to what it needed before.

With another year of experience, some more depth/maybe a key player or two brought in and likely a new coach ( if they fall apart ), everyone just might get their wish...

 

[rdowdall]

They are in the playoffs and the Leafs are not.  Realistically, that is the first step.  Once you get in anything can happen.  I would say the basis for cup contention begins with making the playoffs.

Good thing it doesn't matter until the end of the season. Even then, qualifying for the playoffs, doesn't mean your a contending team.

But if the Senators are in the playoffs, and the Leafs aren't, which one is further along for contending for the cup?

I do not expect the turds to be a long term cup contender.  Having too many young players who have no playoff experience will come back to haunt them, and long term, there are no guarantees.

So if / when the too many young Leaf players <youngest in the league right?> make the playoffs what happens to this logic? Out the window right?

If I was you, I would have come back with the ages of Karlsson, Cowen, Turris, Michalek, plus the three first rounders they drafted this year.  And it's not like Spezza is that old.  Really the only players they stand to lose in the foreseeable future are Alfredsson and Gonchar.  They have retooled on the fly.  They have a decent goaltending prospect playing in the minors, and they are still making the playoffs.

I hate the fact that the Sens are in that position, as they seem to be built for the future and for right now.

It just seems unfair that the Leafs are in a position to miss the playoffs for 7 years in a row, and the Sens go through 3 sort of down years and come back out near the top.

 

[Bender]

For me that wouldn't be the end of the world if it happened and for others it could even be a happy dance day as Wilson would likely be gone.

Last year Burke made a similar determination and I think it had a net benefit, one more year like that could be a good thing overall for long term success.

Yeah, as much as I'd like the Leafs to make the playoffs, the potential returns from moving Liles, Grabovski, whoever at the deadline could very well be that much more beneficial to the team in terms of becoming long-term contenders - and, that's a much bigger concern to me than just making the playoffs this season.

I guess my one counter to that would be that I think it is unfortunate that we would essentially be half tearing down the roster for the 3rd or 4th time since JFJ was fired without once firing the coach to see if maybe it was that his message/system just wasn't getting the team up to that next level.  I don't think the Leafs have ever quit on Wilson like the Penguins looked before they brought in Bylsma, but it's that one big "what if" I have with the team.

It's really tough to say: Because like we said, this team will live and die with goaltending, and the goaltending they received from Reimer last year was excellent. Unfortunately, he did not look the same this year and was exacerbated by Gionta's hit to his noggin. I really do think that if we got .910 goaltending we would be in the playoffs. No way that Turris shot goes in on an above average goaltender. This is one hell of a sophomore slump for him.

 

[bustaheims]

I guess my one counter to that would be that I think it is unfortunate that we would essentially be half tearing down the roster for the 3rd or 4th time since JFJ was fired without once firing the coach to see if maybe it was that his message/system just wasn't getting the team up to that next level.  I don't think the Leafs have ever quit on Wilson like the Penguins looked before they brought in Bylsma, but it's that one big "what if" I have with the team.

Well, extension or not, if the Leafs miss the playoffs this season, I fully expect Wilson to be relieved of his coaching duties. And, really, it would mainly be moving out pending UFAs and maybe some other pieces that aren't part of the long-term plan or where there are already younger players in place to take their spot (as is likely the plan, as it is). Considering what might be available at the deadline in terms of players teams don't have to commit to for next season, the Leafs might have two of the most appealing assets in Grabovski and Liles - especially Liles, who, if he's healthy, is probably the best available pending UFA puckmoving defenceman.

 

[maplesyrup]

I think it's important to re-sign Liles. The defence as a whole just seems to play much better when he's there. In doing that, it probably means you have to move a good young kid (Aulie maybe) in a deal with a "part" (Mac or say, Connolly) for something else. I have no idea what the return would be but assuming we're sellers, maybe we'll see something like that happen. 

 

[bustaheims]

I think it's important to re-sign Liles. The defence as a whole just seems to play much better when he's there. In doing that, it probably means you have to move a good young kid (Aulie maybe) in a deal with a "part" (Mac or say, Connolly) for something else. I have no idea what the return would be but assuming we're sellers, maybe we'll see something like that happen.

I'm with you, but, at the same time, that wouldn't be enough to stop me from moving him at the deadline if the Leafs are out of it. If he gets back soon, produces well and shows he's symptom free, he could conceivably bring back a Kaberle-esque return, considering who else appears to be available and isn't under contract next season. With a new CBA coming up and some uncertainty surrounding it, the lack of commitment potentially increases his value on the trade market.

 

[maplesyrup]

I think it's important to re-sign Liles. The defence as a whole just seems to play much better when he's there. In doing that, it probably means you have to move a good young kid (Aulie maybe) in a deal with a "part" (Mac or say, Connolly) for something else. I have no idea what the return would be but assuming we're sellers, maybe we'll see something like that happen.

I'm with you, but, at the same time, that wouldn't be enough to stop me from moving him at the deadline if the Leafs are out of it. If he gets back soon, produces well and shows he's symptom free, he could conceivably bring back a Kaberle-esque return, considering who else appears to be available and isn't under contract next season. With a new CBA coming up and some uncertainty surrounding it, the lack of commitment potentially increases his value on the trade market.

I honestly don't think I'd deal him for a late 1st... I like him that much.

 

[nutman]

I think it's important to re-sign Liles. The defence as a whole just seems to play much better when he's there. In doing that, it probably means you have to move a good young kid (Aulie maybe) in a deal with a "part" (Mac or say, Connolly) for something else. I have no idea what the return would be but assuming we're sellers, maybe we'll see something like that happen.

Sarge  I think our years as sellers are over, we need very little to take the next step. i am one who believes that Wilson is not the coach to take us to the next level, and this is what is holding back the leafs at this point.
I also believe adding that big centre will also push us into the contender zone. a for the defence, Liles will be back soon and all will balance out there. I also think our goaltending has not been the problem, I think the small let downs at the wrong time are making the goalies look ten times worse then they are.

 

[maplesyrup]

I really appreciate your enthusiasm nutman but this isn't looking like our year. I do believe it's a better/deeper squad than last year but still - just not good enough.

 

[Bullfrog]

Yeah the 7-2-1 start really skewed the perception of this team.  Since then the Leafs are 15-16-4, or 15 wins and 20 losses.  That's not good enough by any stretch of the imagination.

But there's very value in selectively removing games. The fact is they're going to win a certain number and they're going to lose a certain number of games; you have to count them all.

Erndog says they have to go 22-15-0 (or thereabouts) to make the playoffs. That's really not far off from their current record of 22-18-5.

So arbitrarily removing the first 9 games then saying the leftover record is really not a valuable exercise. How do we know they won't fire off a 5 game winning streak?

 

[rdowdall]

I really appreciate your enthusiasm nutman but this isn't looking like our year. I do believe it's a better/deeper squad than last year but still - just not good enough.

I agree.  I think this is year 7 out of the playoffs.

 

[Zee]

I really appreciate your enthusiasm nutman but this isn't looking like our year. I do believe it's a better/deeper squad than last year but still - just not good enough.

So you're saying Ottawa has more talent on the roster than the Leafs?  Cause they seem to be good enough this year for the playoffs.  At some point it's not the roster and it might be something else.

 

[rdowdall]

Yeah the 7-2-1 start really skewed the perception of this team.  Since then the Leafs are 15-16-4, or 15 wins and 20 losses.  That's not good enough by any stretch of the imagination.

But there's very value in selectively removing games. The fact is they're going to win a certain number and they're going to lose a certain number of games; you have to count them all.

Erndog says they have to go 22-15-0 (or thereabouts) to make the playoffs. That's really not far off from their current record of 22-18-5.

So arbitrarily removing the first 9 games then saying the leftover record is really not a valuable exercise. How do we know they won't fire off a 5 game winning streak?

How do we know that they won't fire off a 5 game losing streak?  The problem is, that at least in my mind, that I see it being easier for them to lose than win.  Also, if they have to depend on a 5 game winning streak to get them in to the playoffs, that is a fairly tall order.  The reality is they will probably go 3-2 or 2-3 in their next five, which just isn't good enough.

 

[Zee]

But there's very value in selectively removing games. The fact is they're going to win a certain number and they're going to lose a certain number of games; you have to count them all.

Erndog says they have to go 22-15-0 (or thereabouts) to make the playoffs. That's really not far off from their current record of 22-18-5.

So arbitrarily removing the first 9 games then saying the leftover record is really not a valuable exercise. How do we know they won't fire off a 5 game winning streak?

Going 22-15 would be a .594%, the Leafs current record of 22-18-5 is a .544% so even by that measurement it's not good enough.  22-15 is winning more games than you lose, 22-18-5 is winning 22 and losing 23.  Note I'm just looking at POINTS for percentages with the loser OT point counting, so if you look at the Leafs record in terms of wins and losses, we've lost more than we've won.