Maple Leafs are better, but are they a playoff team?

[bustaheims]

So we only need Optimeh Reim to show up? Cool, cool cool cool...

Essentially, yeah. If the offence can produce at around the same rate it did last season and the defence keeps shots down to around the same rate they did last season (or improves on it), if Reimer and Gustavsson can even provide the team with league average goaltending between them, that should be enough to get the Leafs into the playoff fight. If they can provide the team with above average goaltending, that shoudl be enough to get the Leafs into the playoffs.

 

[bustaheims]

Without denying that better goaltending throughout the season will play a big part in improving the GA -- heck, as plenty have said, including me, if Reimer can play all season the way he did our chances of making it go up astronomically -- without denying that, you have forgotten that we are talking about a regression in GF, not merely keeping where we were last season.  So if, just to take the numbers you gave, Grabs and Kuly each dropped 8-10 goals, that's makes the differential -48 to -52, not -32.  So even cutting 37 from the GA still leaves us at -11 to -15, and way out the playoffs.

So, if there's any regression among the forwards, we'd need much better than middle-of-the-pack goaltending.

Yeah, but you're talking about regression from a couple guys without taking account the fact that there will be a couple guys who will inevitably improve on their totals from last season. So, even if the 2nd line drops 20 goals from their production, there's no reason to believe those goals won't be able to be made up from a variety of other players and other factors that I mentioned in another post. You're focusing way too much on the potential drop off from one line without taking into account things like a healthy season from Armstrong, Connolly on the 1st line instead of Bozak, no Joey Crabb riding shotgun on the first line, etc.

You're so focused on the potential regression from a couple guys that you're seemingly refusing to even acknowledge the potential improvement from a number of others.

 

[Bender]

Without denying that better goaltending throughout the season will play a big part in improving the GA -- heck, as plenty have said, including me, if Reimer can play all season the way he did our chances of making it go up astronomically -- without denying that, you have forgotten that we are talking about a regression in GF, not merely keeping where we were last season.  So if, just to take the numbers you gave, Grabs and Kuly each dropped 8-10 goals, that's makes the differential -48 to -52, not -32.  So even cutting 37 from the GA still leaves us at -11 to -15, and way out the playoffs.

So, if there's any regression among the forwards, we'd need much better than middle-of-the-pack goaltending.

Yeah, but you're talking about regression from a couple guys without taking account the fact that there will be a couple guys who will inevitably improve on their totals from last season. So, even if the 2nd line drops 20 goals from their production, there's no reason to believe those goals won't be able to be made up from a variety of other players and other factors that I mentioned in another post. You're focusing way too much on the potential drop off from one line without taking into account things like a healthy season from Armstrong, Connolly on the 1st line instead of Bozak, no Joey Crabb riding shotgun on the first line, etc.

You're so focused on the potential regression from a couple guys that you're seemingly refusing to even acknowledge the potential improvement from a number of others.

Well it's easier for Murphy's Law to be right than it is to have hope and have it all go to hell

 

[ZBBM]

You're so focused on the potential regression from a couple guys that you're seemingly refusing to even acknowledge the potential improvement from a number of others.

Well, you're just restating our basic disagreement.  You are confident that all these new guys could make up a shortfall, and I'm not.  Especially not in the case of Connolly.

And of course some people might improve -- there is that potential.  But earlier in your post you said ..."the fact that there will be a couple guys who will inevitably improve....'  That's neither a fact nor inevitable, and even if a couple of guys improve, if those guys are Brown and Boyce, the improvement very likely won't make any difference.

 

[bustaheims]

Well, you're just restating our basic disagreement.  You are confident that all these new guys could make up a shortfall, and I'm not.  Especially not in the case of Connolly.

It's not just the new guys, though. It's everyone. I mean, let's say Kessel adds 4 to his total, Lupul adds 2 to his and Versteeg's combined totals, Armstrong stays healthy and puts up 16 (roughly his career average) adding 8 to his total, add in a handful more goals from the blueline, and we're back where we started. I mean, I'm not exactly talking about unreasonable gains or wild career seasons or anything. It really doesn't take all that much for the 15 other skaters to make up the difference of 20 goals over the course of a season. Yeah, I'm confident that the offence won't take a significant dip just because one line has dip in production. I mean, the team scored roughly the same amount of goals in 09/10 that they did in 10/11 without the Kulemin-Grabovski-MacArthur line putting up the totals they did - and there's more talent on the 11/12 roster than there was back then. I really think you're just being unnecessarily pessimistic about all this. The Leafs will score at least 210-215 goals next season, right around where they've been for the past couple seasons. I have no doubts about that, and that's not being overconfident about anything either - I mean, that total will still put them in the bottom 1/3 of the league - outside of some devastating injuries or everyone in the top 6 having terrible seasons, that's just where the team's overall talent level puts them as a rough baseline

 

[Tigger]

You're so focused on the potential regression from a couple guys that you're seemingly refusing to even acknowledge the potential improvement from a number of others.

Well, you're just restating our basic disagreement.  You are confident that all these new guys could make up a shortfall, and I'm not.  Especially not in the case of Connolly.

And of course some people might improve -- there is that potential.  But earlier in your post you said ..."the fact that there will be a couple guys who will inevitably improve....'  That's neither a fact nor inevitable, and even if a couple of guys improve, if those guys are Brown and Boyce, the improvement very likely won't make any difference.

Wait, it's a fact that there will be a regression?

I don't know if you're taking the entire team into account with regards to balancing a possible shortfall from one line, it's more than just Lupul and Connolly.

 

[ZBBM]

Well, you're just restating our basic disagreement.  You are confident that all these new guys could make up a shortfall, and I'm not.  Especially not in the case of Connolly.

It's not just the new guys, though. It's everyone. I mean, let's say Kessel adds 4 to his total, Lupul adds 2 to his and Versteeg's combined totals, Armstrong stays healthy and puts up 16 (roughly his career average) adding 8 to his total, add in a handful more goals from the blueline, and we're back where we started. I mean, I'm not exactly talking about unreasonable gains or wild career seasons or anything. It really doesn't take all that much for the 15 other skaters to make up the difference of 20 goals over the course of a season. Yeah, I'm confident that the offence won't take a significant dip just because one line has dip in production. I mean, the team scored roughly the same amount of goals in 09/10 that they did in 10/11 without the Kulemin-Grabovski-MacArthur line putting up the totals they did - and there's more talent on the 11/12 roster than there was back then. I really think you're just being unnecessarily pessimistic about all this. The Leafs will score at least 210-215 goals next season, right around where they've been for the past couple seasons. I have no doubts about that, and that's not being overconfident about anything either - I mean, that total will still put them in the bottom 1/3 of the league - outside of some devastating injuries or everyone in the top 6 having terrible seasons, that's just where the team's overall talent level puts them as a rough baseline

You could be right, but if we stay even keel in GF that puts a lot of burden on Reimer (and/or Gus).  Still dicey I think.

 

[bustaheims]

You could be right, but if we stay even keel in GF that puts a lot of burden on Reimer (and/or Gus).  Still dicey I think.

Oh, the playoffs are no sure bet, that's for sure. Unless there are a couple more breakout seasons in the offing, everything is going to come down to goaltending, because I'd say a realistic best case scenario would put the Leafs offence in the middle of the pack - which means, they're goaltending has to be at least that, if not better.

 

[Jalili]

They need some more of that bubba kush if they're going to get in

 

[Madferret]

Kush for everyone

 

[Tigger]

Nah, they need a spicy new flavor, Bubba Gump Kush...

Can't say I see it being helpful in 'Rebagliati-ing' their way to the dance though.

 

[Jalili]

Ripping bowls of some high quality Indica will open up their creativity on the ice

 

[pnjunction]

Ripping bowls of some high quality Indica will open up their creativity on the ice

OMG nothing like getting ripped and making crazy dekes and passes in the NHL video games

 

[Bender]

Ripping bowls of some high quality Indica will open up their creativity on the ice

OMG nothing like getting ripped and making crazy dekes and passes in the NHL video games

Video games are wayyyyy too hard when you're baked.

 

[bustaheims]

Ripping bowls of some high quality Indica will open up their creativity on the ice

I'm pretty sure the last thing this team needs is any substances that will make them slow and unmotivated.

 

[nutman]

You're so focused on the potential regression from a couple guys that you're seemingly refusing to even acknowledge the potential improvement from a number of others.

Well, you're just restating our basic disagreement.  You are confident that all these new guys could make up a shortfall, and I'm not.  Especially not in the case of Connolly.

And of course some people might improve -- there is that potential.  But earlier in your post you said ..."the fact that there will be a couple guys who will inevitably improve....'  That's neither a fact nor inevitable, and even if a couple of guys improve, if those guys are Brown and Boyce, the improvement very likely won't make any difference.

Wait, it's a fact that there will be a regression?

I don't know if you're taking the entire team into account with regards to balancing a possible shortfall from one line, it's more than just Lupul and Connolly.

Wow ... why are they all talking regression, i think our lines will score more. grabbos line will improve and i see big things from kessels line, and as for the third it will also be a threat.goaltending is set.  its our pp and pk as well as our shootout that will be the big factors this season. if they are improved by 30% we are in the post season, and if they are improved by a lot more we will be a threat to any team.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Wow ... why are they all talking regression, i think our lines will score more. grabbos line will improve and i see big things from kessels line, and as for the third it will also be a threat.goaltending is set.  its our pp and pk as well as our shootout that will be the big factors this season. if they are improved by 30% we are in the post season, and if they are improved by a lot more we will be a threat to any team.

I don't really know how you can realistically say that our goaltending is "set". I mean I like to be optimistic as the next guy, but I think it's far from set. A lot of things have to go right for the goaltending to be a strong point. I believe Reimer is the real deal, but he still has to step up and prove that IMO.

 

[Bender]

Wow ... why are they all talking regression, i think our lines will score more. grabbos line will improve and i see big things from kessels line, and as for the third it will also be a threat.goaltending is set.  its our pp and pk as well as our shootout that will be the big factors this season. if they are improved by 30% we are in the post season, and if they are improved by a lot more we will be a threat to any team.

I don't really know how you can realistically say that our goaltending is "set". I mean I like to be optimistic as the next guy, but I think it's far from set. A lot of things have to go right for the goaltending to be a strong point. I believe Reimer is the real deal, but he still has to step up and prove that IMO.

We've gotta really hope against a sophomore slump.

 

[AvroArrow]

nutman makes me want to hate the Leafs...  I think I finally understand why some other fan bases hate the Leafs and their fans...

 

[Kin]

We've gotta really hope against a sophomore slump.

More than that, beyond the fact that Reimer can't play poorly, he legitimately needs to excel again. That would be a lot to ask of any second year goalie, even one who played better than Reimer did last year.