Mitch Marner: what now?

[Joe S.]

I can?t say that I disagree with Dubas? strategy here. He?s basically letting the Marner camp know that they should be prepared that the offer sheet will mean that they will be stuck wherever they sign for the next 8 years, so don?t count on it as a tactic to drive up the price.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I can?t say that I disagree with Dubas? strategy here. He?s basically letting the Marner camp know that they should be prepared that the offer sheet will mean that they will be stuck wherever they sign for the next 8 years, so don?t count on it as a tactic to drive up the price.

I agree. He also had nothing but nice things to say about him so the ball's in your court Ferris.

 

[Zee]

I can?t say that I disagree with Dubas? strategy here. He?s basically letting the Marner camp know that they should be prepared that the offer sheet will mean that they will be stuck wherever they sign for the next 8 years, so don?t count on it as a tactic to drive up the price.

Max term on offer sheets would be 7 years, but according to reports the Marner camp isn't interested in long term so the offer sheet would most likely be 5 years.  At 5 years and 10.5 Leafs are forced to match because compensation isn't 4 first round picks.  Leafs don't want 5 years as the contract would expire the same summer as Matthews and Nylander.  If Marner's camp does something like that, Leafs match and maybe look to trade him  a couple years in.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I can?t say that I disagree with Dubas? strategy here. He?s basically letting the Marner camp know that they should be prepared that the offer sheet will mean that they will be stuck wherever they sign for the next 8 years, so don?t count on it as a tactic to drive up the price.

Max term on offer sheets would be 7 years, but according to reports the Marner camp isn't interested in long term so the offer sheet would most likely be 5 years.  At 5 years and 10.5 Leafs are forced to match because compensation isn't 4 first round picks.  Leafs don't want 5 years as the contract would expire the same summer as Matthews and Nylander.  If Marner's camp does something like that, Leafs match and maybe look to trade him  a couple years in.

No one is going to offer a contract the Leafs will easily match. 10.5 may just be a mill over what they want so that's a no brainer and in the end, doesn't really hurt the Leafs. I think if Marner presented, not signed, an offer sheet of 5/10.5, Leafs counter with a different number and term. Like you said they don't want a repeat of this in 5 years.

 

[hockeyfan1]

Some of you guys are like people that get all worked up about how stupid and ridiculous soap operas are, but never miss an episode.

Imagine if the moustache himself was the agent...Victor Newman style.

Besides, I much prefer watching Y&R than watching too much crappy shoot ?em up mind-numbing violence. 

 

[princedpw]

I thought you were trying to predict how much money Marner was going to make ...

I am. The way players determine how to value themselves is a part of that.

I thought we were just trying to predict what Marner?s contract is likely to be. Nothing you are saying is ?unreasonable? but I find Tulloch?s analysis more persuasive.

Which is great but the process is more complicated than just choosing groups of comparables and then...what? Do you think it turns into a debate match where the side that chooses the best comparables wins over their opponents? Or do players egos come into account, both when choosing comparables and then during the negotiating process? Does it become a match of who has better data or who has more willpower? Does every contract fit seamlessly into an existing salary structure or are their outliers?

There are lots of factors that determine how players and teams arrive at their positions and then lots of other factors that determine how the situation is resolved. It just isn't as simple as boiling things down to simple metrics.

There are, but I find it difficult to know how to factor social process into a salary prediction in any reliable way.  Yes, ego, willpower, interpersonal relationships will guide the process but we can't use that knowledge to inform our salary estimate.

On the other hand, while the Athletic's use of simple metrics is .... simplistic and that's actually useful because you can measure how well it works on historical data easily enough.  And there's some evidence that it works relatively well --- I included references that demonstrate their past predictions have been relatively accurate.  It's that evidence that gives me a degree of confidence in their salary estimate.  It's not so unusual that complex phenomena can be approximated with some degree of precision by simple models.

That was a stupidly long-winded way of saying their method has worked in the past so it seems like as good a bet as any going forward.

I couldn?t care less about their business model as long as it succeeds.

Well, you should. Especially if that business model dictates not only the fairly anodyne content that they put out(Can't be too controversial or political and risk the constant growth of the subscriber base!)

I buy their content because I like it better than other content (or rather, it compliments the other content I can get well) ... so arguing that I shouldn't like their business model because it produces bad content isn't going to work ...

or leads to the pretty numerous ethical lapses they've been guilty of.

What ethical lapses?

 

[Kin]

That was a stupidly long-winded way of saying their method has worked in the past so it seems like as good a bet as any going forward.

Ok. So far we've talked about their method with regards to two of these Leafs negotiations, one we agree they didn't do very well with and the other where they guessed 7 when the Leafs were offering 6 and Nylander was supposedly asking for 8 so I'm not exactly wowed by the formula.

Because with my guessing on the relatively high side of what common wisdom was, I've more or less been 2 for 2 and considering how the Marner negotiation is shaping up, I'm not overly worried that he's going to sign a long term deal at 9 million per(not that I would be anyway. If I end up wrong, I'll deal somehow)

I buy their content because I like it better than other content (or rather, it compliments the other content I can get well) ... so arguing that I shouldn't like their business model because it produces bad content isn't going to work ...

This was you trying to convince me to read the Athletic, not me talking you out of it. If you think it's good content, best of luck with it.

What ethical lapses?

Off the top of my head you could look into the thing with their Derek Rose article from this year or the thing with the Golden State Warriors with the "joke" that their reporter may or may not have overheard.

 

[disco]

https://twitter.com/mikeystephens81/status/1142212534528876544
lol

 

[Highlander]

Some of you guys are like people that get all worked up about how stupid and ridiculous soap operas are, but never miss an episode.

Imagine if the moustache himself was the agent...Victor Newman style.

Besides, I much prefer watching Y&R than watching too much crappy shoot ?em up mind-numbing violence.

Good ol Victor Newman...used to be in the Desert Rats when I was a younger tike.

 

[Zee]

Some of you guys are like people that get all worked up about how stupid and ridiculous soap operas are, but never miss an episode.

Imagine if the moustache himself was the agent...Victor Newman style.[emoji44][emoji3061][emoji846]

Besides, I much prefer watching Y&R than watching too much crappy shoot ?em up mind-numbing violence.

Good ol Victor Newman...used to be in the Desert Rats when I was a younger tike.

Was flipping channels the other day and couldn't believe he was still Victor Newman. I remember being forced to watch that show by my sisters in like 1982-83

 

[Kin]

Something to keep in mind re: the Marleau trade is that a lot of the conjecture about an offer sheet was based on the Leafs inability to match. If the Leafs have ample space to match even a 12 million per year offer sheet then actually making the offer serves no real purpose other than inflating salaries, something we've seen that NHL GMs don't like doing.

So the net result of the Marleau trade might not just be keeping Kapanen and Johnsson, it might also really be a kick in the goolies to Marner's leverage.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Something to keep in mind re: the Marleau trade is that a lot of the conjecture about an offer sheet was based on the Leafs inability to match. If the Leafs have ample space to match even a 12 million per year offer sheet then actually making the offer serves no real purpose other than inflating salaries, something we've seen that NHL GMs don't like doing.

So the net result of the Marleau trade might not just be keeping Kapanen and Johnsson, it might also really be a kick in the goolies to Marner's leverage.

I read somewhere that they are waiting to announce the Kappy contract until Marner signs so that would support your theory.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

Something to keep in mind re: the Marleau trade is that a lot of the conjecture about an offer sheet was based on the Leafs inability to match. If the Leafs have ample space to match even a 12 million per year offer sheet then actually making the offer serves no real purpose other than inflating salaries, something we've seen that NHL GMs don't like doing.

So the net result of the Marleau trade might not just be keeping Kapanen and Johnsson, it might also really be a kick in the goolies to Marner's leverage.

Well put.  I remember MrT here years ago when the salary cap was new repeatedly and clearly articulating that cap space is an asset and should be treated as such, and of course it's been generally regarded as such since.  But this is particularly one of those times when the value of the cap space asset can't be underestimated, just as the value of a presumably late 1st rounder shouldn't be overestimated.

Not only has Dubas paid to directly help get out of cap hell, but he's also paid to help avert further cap hell from an offer sheet or multiple offer sheets.

 

[Kin]

Well put.  I remember MrT here years ago when the salary cap was new repeatedly and clearly articulating that cap space is an asset and should be treated as such, and of course it's been generally regarded as such since.  But this is particularly one of those times when the value of the cap space asset can't be underestimated, just as the value of a presumably late 1st rounder shouldn't be overestimated.

Not only has Dubas paid to directly help get out of cap hell, but he's also paid to help avert further cap hell from an offer sheet or multiple offer sheets.

While this is all true, we should be honest about the cost. It's not the 1st so much that bothers me so much as it does sort of highlight the reality that in the Lamoriello-Dubas era there have been a lot of blown 2nd and 3rd round picks that are going to result in kind of a depleted prospect base. That sucks, and it might be a reason why the team stutters a bit, but losing Kapanen(or even Marner) would have been worse.

 

[Hobbes]

Something to keep in mind re: the Marleau trade is that a lot of the conjecture about an offer sheet was based on the Leafs inability to match. If the Leafs have ample space to match even a 12 million per year offer sheet then actually making the offer serves no real purpose other than inflating salaries, something we've seen that NHL GMs don't like doing.

So the net result of the Marleau trade might not just be keeping Kapanen and Johnsson, it might also really be a kick in the goolies to Marner's leverage.

Well put.  I remember MrT here years ago when the salary cap was new repeatedly and clearly articulating that cap space is an asset and should be treated as such, and of course it's been generally regarded as such since.  But this is particularly one of those times when the value of the cap space asset can't be underestimated, just as the value of a presumably late 1st rounder shouldn't be overestimated.

Not only has Dubas paid to directly help get out of cap hell, but he's also paid to help avert further cap hell from an offer sheet or multiple offer sheets.

Maybe also some added good will value as other look at how the Leafs were willing to do something creative of this nature to facilitate Marleau's desire to finish his career out West (though of course in addition to helping their own cap situation). I'm sure if nothing else Matthews and Marner will be happy about seeing their "dad" getting what he wanted.

 

[Hobbes]

...it does sort of highlight the reality that in the Lamoriello-Dubas Lamoriello-Hunter  era there have been a lot of blown 2nd and 3rd round picks...

Fixed...

 

[sickbeast]

Wow...the Leafs currently only have $14,040,301 in free cap space even after the Marleau deal.  Let's say Marner gets $11 million...that leaves $3 million to replace or re-sign Kapanen, Johnsson, *and* Gardiner.

It's looking like Zeitsev is definitely going to have to go.  This is looking like a busy summer for Dubas.

My fear is that even with all these moves and draft picks traded away we're still going to wind up with an inferior team compared to last season...plus Muzzin is gone at the end of the upcoming season.  We shall see.  Dubas is in a tough spot to build a true contender for the upcoming season.  He will eventually run out of draft picks also.  It would be nice to have a few left to get a decent rental if we're making a run.

 

[Kin]

The Leafs have 19.3 million in space. Capfriendly is including Horton.

 

[sickbeast]

The Leafs have 19.3 million in space. Capfriendly is including Horton.

Thanks.

 

[ZBBM]

Something to keep in mind re: the Marleau trade is that a lot of the conjecture about an offer sheet was based on the Leafs inability to match. If the Leafs have ample space to match even a 12 million per year offer sheet then actually making the offer serves no real purpose other than inflating salaries, something we've seen that NHL GMs don't like doing.

So the net result of the Marleau trade might not just be keeping Kapanen and Johnsson, it might also really be a kick in the goolies to Marner's leverage.

Just for fun, to take the other side of the argument: this theory rests on the assumption that 30 other GMs think paying Marner (say) $11M is a vast overpayment.  If I'm a GM sitting in my office this afternoon, I am thinking about how to make my team better, not the league's overall salary structure.  And at least some of those GMs would love to have Marner on their team, even at $11 or $11 and a bit more, and could do it given their current situation.  Why not take a high shot with an offer sheet?  Worst case is you win.

Although TBH I don't think today's move will make much difference either way in an OS calculation.  What it might do is bolster the idea (DF, PM) that the Leafs can now afford to pay Mitch what they think he's worth.