princedpw said:
I thought you were trying to predict how much money Marner was going to make ...
I am. The way players determine how to value themselves is a part of that.
princedpw said:
I thought we were just trying to predict what Marner?s contract is likely to be. Nothing you are saying is ?unreasonable? but I find Tulloch?s analysis more persuasive.
Which is great but the process is more complicated than just choosing groups of comparables and then...what? Do you think it turns into a debate match where the side that chooses the best comparables wins over their opponents? Or do players egos come into account, both when choosing comparables and then during the negotiating process? Does it become a match of who has better data or who has more willpower? Does every contract fit seamlessly into an existing salary structure or are their outliers?
There are lots of factors that determine how players and teams arrive at their positions and then lots of other factors that determine how the situation is resolved. It just isn't as simple as boiling things down to simple metrics.