Mitch Marner: what now?

[Kin]

I wish that there was some sort of mechanism in the CBA that just sped up this process. I mean we see all this UFA deals coming together in less than a week but we're now probably going to see RFA negotiations drag into August and September pretty often. And considering the circumstances that you laid out that makes sense. There's no real rush on either side. But it just feels like such wasted time. Look at the Aho situation, the Canes were lowballing him hard to the point that they probably weren't even close to nearing Montreal's offer which they're now apparently "celebrating" (as they should). Presumably, Aho's people made that same offer to Carolina prior to going the offer sheet route and Waddell said no. Probably because he didn't feel like he had to "blink" yet.

I don't really know what the fix to all of this is. Move up the RFA signing deadline? Unless you move it to August, which seems extreme, I doubt that really changes too much. Maybe make it so after a certain date in the summer the compensation for offer sheets becomes a little relaxed? That could encourage more of these Aho-type deals where the player is pretty much just using it to get the contract he wants from his original team, but that would rely on other teams being willing to make an offer sheet that will 90% likely get matched.

Well, I always think it's important to remember that there's a difference in how this feels to weirdos like us and to your casual fan or even, god forbid, someone who spends the summer following other sports or doing stuff. Not having Marner signed creates a level of anxiety in us but realistically Dubas is still doing 99% of what he should be doing and Marner's enjoying his time off/working out so not a lot of time is actively being wasted.

I agree that it would be ideal if there was more of an incentive to get people to negotiate before any actual games are missed but I still think the only real fix is going to be having the NHL relax elements of the cap. Teams should, ideally, be motivated in these negotiations by trying to find a fair value for the player, not the manufactured reality that every dollar they give one player is one they can't give another. I think it just makes things too adversarial.

And sure, I hate the cap and so my solution to everything is getting rid of it, but the Leafs right now really are a study in why things at least need to be eased. The Leafs haven't gone crazy in free agency. Tavares is really it. What is hurting the Leafs right now cap-wise, and this sentence is just about as absurd as can be, is that they've been too good at drafting and developing players. Absorbing the 2nd contracts of 5 very good players in two years is a tough pill but just a ridiculous thing to punish a team for. Especially when this wasn't a Oilers-esque situation of having a bunch of lottery wins or several top fifteen picks in a row. The guys who are putting pressure on the Leafs cap were drafted 1st, 4th, 8th, 22nd and 202nd. The idea that any league should think there should be a downside to that sort of player development...that needs to get fixed before anything else.

 

[lamajama]

I wish that there was some sort of mechanism in the CBA that just sped up this process. I mean we see all this UFA deals coming together in less than a week but we're now probably going to see RFA negotiations drag into August and September pretty often. And considering the circumstances that you laid out that makes sense. There's no real rush on either side. But it just feels like such wasted time. Look at the Aho situation, the Canes were lowballing him hard to the point that they probably weren't even close to nearing Montreal's offer which they're now apparently "celebrating" (as they should). Presumably, Aho's people made that same offer to Carolina prior to going the offer sheet route and Waddell said no. Probably because he didn't feel like he had to "blink" yet.

I don't really know what the fix to all of this is. Move up the RFA signing deadline? Unless you move it to August, which seems extreme, I doubt that really changes too much. Maybe make it so after a certain date in the summer the compensation for offer sheets becomes a little relaxed? That could encourage more of these Aho-type deals where the player is pretty much just using it to get the contract he wants from his original team, but that would rely on other teams being willing to make an offer sheet that will 90% likely get matched.

Well, I always think it's important to remember that there's a difference in how this feels to weirdos like us and to your casual fan or even, god forbid, someone who spends the summer following other sports or doing stuff. Not having Marner signed creates a level of anxiety in us but realistically Dubas is still doing 99% of what he should be doing and Marner's enjoying his time off/working out so not a lot of time is actively being wasted.

I agree that it would be ideal if there was more of an incentive to get people to negotiate before any actual games are missed but I still think the only real fix is going to be having the NHL relax elements of the cap. Teams should, ideally, be motivated in these negotiations by trying to find a fair value for the player, not the manufactured reality that every dollar they give one player is one they can't give another. I think it just makes things too adversarial.

And sure, I hate the cap and so my solution to everything is getting rid of it, but the Leafs right now really are a study in why things at least need to be eased. The Leafs haven't gone crazy in free agency. Tavares is really it. What is hurting the Leafs right now cap-wise, and this sentence is just about as absurd as can be, is that they've been too good at drafting and developing players. Absorbing the 2nd contracts of 5 very good players in two years is a tough pill but just a ridiculous thing to punish a team for. Especially when this wasn't a Oilers-esque situation of having a bunch of lottery wins or several top fifteen picks in a row. The guys who are putting pressure on the Leafs cap were drafted 1st, 4th, 8th, 22nd and 202nd. The idea that any league should think there should be a downside to that sort of player development...that needs to get fixed before anything else.

This....is 100% correct. The Leafs finally devote resources and good talented people to develop players and now we get screwed (fans that is)...

 

[Bullfrog]

...
So despite hearing all this "Marner feels disrespected" or "Marner wants to entertain offer sheets" there's every chance that Mitch is out on a fishing boat somewhere fielding occasional calls from his agent but generally speaking not paying too much attention to what's going on.

Because what's the rush? Marner and Dubas both basically know he's the last piece and, given that they signed Johnsson and Kapanen, I bet Dubas probably knows roughly what i'll take to sign Marner and has budgeted appropriately. Now it's just a game of chicken. Dubas might be at 8/9.5 aav and Ferris may be at 8/11.5 or something and now it's just a matter of where they might meet.

And when, too. Marner might be very comfortable waiting at least until deep summer to see if Dubas blinks. And why not? So long as he's confident a deal gets done, this could be taking up next to nothing in mental real estate. His agent is negotiating for him, Marner's enjoying the off-season. The fact that his unsigned status is bugging some people posting on the internet won't matter to him. If the worst thing that happens to him is signing for 8/9.5 aav then that's a pretty worry free life.
...

Reminds me of a Tie Domi interview from many years ago. He talked about getting a call from his agent to let him know he just got his first million dollar contract and Tie responds with "what, per year?!" [paraphrasing] It just illustrates how hands-off many of the players can be.

I agree, I really don't think Marner is sweating too much over whether he's going to get $9 or $10M. Doesn't mean he doesn't want his agent to fight for as much as he can get.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I think they're all waiting for the first 1 to blink. Once the first couple of RFAs sign, the gates will open. Aho's deal isn't official yet.

 

[50 Mission Cap]

The guys who are putting pressure on the Leafs cap were drafted 1st, 4th, 8th, 22nd and 202nd. The idea that any league should think there should be a downside to that sort of player development...that needs to get fixed before anything else.

In three sentences you reduced the "pro salary cap" argument to ashes. Well played indeed! Seriously, how does a professional league create a system that punishes you for being too good at prospecting/player development.

 

[bustaheims]

I think they're all waiting for the first 1 to blink. Once the first couple of RFAs sign, the gates will open. Aho's deal isn't official yet.

The important parts are. The only thing that isn?t final is which of the two teams he?ll play for. The dollars, term, and structure have been filed with the league as part of the offer sheet process. For all intents and purposes, Aho?s contract is done.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I think they're all waiting for the first 1 to blink. Once the first couple of RFAs sign, the gates will open. Aho's deal isn't official yet.

The important parts are. The only thing that isn?t final is which of the two teams he?ll play for. The dollars, term, and structure have been filed with the league as part of the offer sheet process. For all intents and purposes, Aho?s contract is done.

True enough and I totally forgot Meier but I guess he's considered a lesser light. Maybe it's going to take one of Point, Marner, Tkachuk or Rantanen to get it rolling?

 

[Zee]

How fun would Toronto be if Marner's and Kawhi's deals to stay in Toronto happen on the same day? Yeah I'm a dreamer

 

[Guilt Trip]

How fun would Toronto be if Marner's and Kawhi's deals to stay in Toronto happen on the same day? Yeah I'm a dreamer

Cool. Calling it for Friday!

 

[ZBBM]

The guys who are putting pressure on the Leafs cap were drafted 1st, 4th, 8th, 22nd and 202nd. The idea that any league should think there should be a downside to that sort of player development...that needs to get fixed before anything else.

In three sentences you reduced the "pro salary cap" argument to ashes. Well played indeed! Seriously, how does a professional league create a system that punishes you for being too good at prospecting/player development.

While Nik's point makes intuitive sense, the counterargument would be that the 1, 4, and 8 (at least) picks hardly represent player "development" --  you, me, and Joe Blow from Kokomo could have made those choices and then sat back and watch 34, 16, and 29 unroll their natural talents. In seriousness, development from the Leafs, post-draft, played at best a minor role in the blossoming of these guys.

But farther down the draft, Nik is on to something. If you want to address it while not throwing out the cap, how about this idea: pro-rate the salary cap by a player's draft position?

1-10 picks: 100% of salary counts against the cap
11-20: 90%
21-30: 80%
and so on down to
91-100: 10%
101 and below: 0%

Heck, you could even make it so any player drafted 150th or below would increase your team's cap by 5% or something.

This kind of a system would actually reward teams for being successful in developing less-heralded players.  And if you begin thinking about the ramifications, they would be fascinating.  Teams holding the #10 pick trading down to #11 to get a potential 10% discount on the cap, etc.

 

[Guilt Trip]

That's a good idea. Save a percentage on the cap by developing players.

 

[Kin]

While Nik's point makes intuitive sense, the counterargument would be that the 1, 4, and 8 (at least) picks hardly represent player "development" --  you, me, and Joe Blow from Kokomo could have made those choices and then sat back and watch 34, 16, and 29 unroll their natural talents.

An argument so mind-bendingly wrong it falls apart if you look at any one draft in isolation, let alone a pattern of them. Be sure to mention to the Oilers how idiot-proof drafting in the top 10 is.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

While Nik's point makes intuitive sense, the counterargument would be that the 1, 4, and 8 (at least) picks hardly represent player "development" --  you, me, and Joe Blow from Kokomo could have made those choices and then sat back and watch 34, 16, and 29 unroll their natural talents.

An argument so mind-bendingly wrong it falls apart if you look at any one draft in isolation, let alone a pattern of them. Be sure to mention to the Oilers how idiot-proof drafting in the top 10 is.

What's crazy about the Oilers, and something I didn't realize until an article I read yesterday, is they are also in cap hell and can't sign players to try to push them into a playoff spot, never mind contention.

 

[ZBBM]

While Nik's point makes intuitive sense, the counterargument would be that the 1, 4, and 8 (at least) picks hardly represent player "development" --  you, me, and Joe Blow from Kokomo could have made those choices and then sat back and watch 34, 16, and 29 unroll their natural talents.

An argument so mind-bendingly wrong it falls apart if you look at any one draft in isolation, let alone a pattern of them. Be sure to mention to the Oilers how idiot-proof drafting in the top 10 is.

They failed to develop their 10-ten picks, huh? I'll wait with rapt anticipation your precise explanation of exactly what they did that ruined, I say ruined, Yakupov and Puljujarvi -- who would be superstars today if only they had been chosen to by some other team.

Or, you know, maybe their "idiocy" was in who they drafted.  Except, as you should know, it isn't idiocy -- because scouting isn't physics. 

Either way, my idea rewards teams that actually do develop players that are (supposedly) less talented.

 

[Kin]

They failed to develop their 10-ten picks, huh? I'll wait with rapt anticipation your precise explanation of exactly what they did that ruined, I say ruined, Yakupov and Puljujarvi -- who would be superstars today if only they had been chosen to by some other team.

Or, you know, maybe their "idiocy" was in who they drafted.  Except, as you should know, it isn't idiocy -- because scouting isn't physics. 

Which is of course what is just so hilariously contradictory about what you're saying. On the one hand, top 10 picks aren't developed at all by the teams they're drafted by. They're fully formed hockey geniuses that any idiot or Joe Schmoe can take. On the other teams of highly paid hockey evaluators regularly can't identify these fully developed undeniably destined for greatness all-stars. They may as well draft with a dart board!

Kudos though. Usually you just pick one thing to be wrong about.

The only thing your idea does is draw entirely meaningless distinctions based on arbitrary round numbers.

 

[Zee]

It's fun to look back on past drafts and where guys were expected to go vs. how they're currently doing. I remember the Matthews draft year the "consensus" was

1. Matthews
2. Laine
3. Puljujarvi

That was supposed to be the lock, but Columbus "reached" taking Dubois 3rd overall which had people freaking out cause Puljujarvi dropped to the Oilers.  It's funny that had the Oilers originally had the 3rd pick they probably would have still taken Puljujarvi, and look how that's turned out so far.  I guess the Columbus scouts knew what they were doing going for Dubois.  Puljujarvi may still turn out to be a good NHLer but so far the Columbus scouting should get a pat on the back for that pick even though it was really high in the draft and supposed to be "easy" to make a pick there.

 

[Kin]

It's fun to look back on past drafts and where guys were expected to go vs. how they're currently doing. I remember the Matthews draft year the "consensus" was

1. Matthews
2. Laine
3. Puljujarvi

That was supposed to be the lock, but Columbus "reached" taking Dubois 3rd overall which had people freaking out cause Puljujarvi dropped to the Oilers.  It's funny that had the Oilers originally had the 3rd pick they probably would have still taken Puljujarvi, and look how that's turned out so far.  I guess the Columbus scouts knew what they were doing going for Dubois.  Puljujarvi may still turn out to be a good NHLer but so far the Columbus scouting should get a pat on the back for that pick even though it was really high in the draft and supposed to be "easy" to make a pick there.

Well, the Nylander draft is a perfect example of that. There were huge calls for the Leafs to take Ritchie over Nylander and even then that was after everyone apparently agreed that by drafting 8th they would miss out on Jake Virtanen who was going to be the real prize from 6-10.

 

[ZBBM]

They failed to develop their 10-ten picks, huh? I'll wait with rapt anticipation your precise explanation of exactly what they did that ruined, I say ruined, Yakupov and Puljujarvi -- who would be superstars today if only they had been chosen to by some other team.

Or, you know, maybe their "idiocy" was in who they drafted.  Except, as you should know, it isn't idiocy -- because scouting isn't physics. 

Which is of course what is just so hilariously contradictory about what you're saying. On the one hand, top 10 picks aren't developed at all by the teams they're drafted by. They're fully formed hockey geniuses that any idiot or Joe Schmoe can take. On the other teams of highly paid hockey evaluators regularly can't identify these fully developed undeniably destined for greatness all-stars. They may as well draft with a dart board!

Kudos though. Usually you just pick one thing to be wrong about.

The only thing your idea does is draw entirely meaningless distinctions based on arbitrary round numbers.

Ladies and gents, at this point Nik has two options:

1.  Try to answer my question, bolded above.  If he dares.
2.  Continue to try to repair his bruised overripe peach of an ego.

Hmmmmm at this point I'm going with #2.

 

[Kin]

Ladies and gents, at this point Nik has two options:

1.  Try to answer my question, bolded above.  If he dares.
2.  Continue to try to repair his bruised overripe peach of an ego.

Hmmmmm at this point I'm going with #2.

Excitingly, I'm going with surprise option #3 which is to continue to ignore stupid questions.

 

[ZBBM]

Ladies and gents, at this point Nik has two options:

1.  Try to answer my question, bolded above.  If he dares.
2.  Continue to try to repair his bruised overripe peach of an ego.

Hmmmmm at this point I'm going with #2.

Excitingly, I'm going with surprise option #3 which is to continue to ignore stupid questions.

Heh.  Never stop being precious, Nik.  It's endearing.