Mitch Marner: what now?

[Kin]

Laine really is the guy who interests me the most outside of Marner. Obviously his bad year is a factor but he's still the only RFA out there who I think could maybe make a case for getting more than Marner on merit. The fact that he hasn't signed makes me wonder if there's a big gap in terms of just how much his down year should matter.

 

[Bates]

Point can make case for deserving more than Marner. Rantanen can.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Point can make case for deserving more than Marner. Rantanen can.

Point for sure. Rantanen, not so sure but up there. I know if I had my choice of RFA's I'd take Point 1st, Marner 2nd. McAvoy would be top 4 or 5.

 

[ZBBM]

I don't know how contract guarantees and insurance and all that works but what if he signs say a 3x8 or whatever and then had a career-ending injury?  Wouldn't he have been better off locking in an 8x10?

If a player is really that terrified of a career ending injury, which are pretty rare even in a sport like hockey, they can get an insurance policy that protects them in that event.

I don't think any insurance company is going to write a policy that will pay them tens of millions in lost potential income ... would they?

 

[Kin]

I don't think any insurance company is going to write a policy that will pay them tens of millions in lost potential income ... would they?

Insurance companies will insure anything for just about any amount of money if you pay a sufficient premium. I mean as is teams get insurance on contracts that can pay tens of millions of dollars.

 

[Frank E]

I don't know how contract guarantees and insurance and all that works but what if he signs say a 3x8 or whatever and then had a career-ending injury?  Wouldn't he have been better off locking in an 8x10?

If a player is really that terrified of a career ending injury, which are pretty rare even in a sport like hockey, they can get an insurance policy that protects them in that event.

I don't think any insurance company is going to write a policy that will pay them tens of millions in lost potential income ... would they?

You can get an insurance policy on anything, and it's a sure thing that many of these guys have injury policies with stiff premiums, given their line of work.  I wouldn't doubt these guys are heavily marketed to by insurance companies, given their incomes.

 

[ZBBM]

I don't think any insurance company is going to write a policy that will pay them tens of millions in lost potential income ... would they?

Insurance companies will insure anything for just about any amount of money if you pay a sufficient premium. I mean as is teams get insurance on contracts that can pay tens of millions of dollars.

OK then, but it would cost Mitch many pretty pennies.  I say, take the mountains of cash now, worry about potential lost earnings that would make those mountains marginally higher later.

 

[ZBBM]

I don't know how contract guarantees and insurance and all that works but what if he signs say a 3x8 or whatever and then had a career-ending injury?  Wouldn't he have been better off locking in an 8x10?

If a player is really that terrified of a career ending injury, which are pretty rare even in a sport like hockey, they can get an insurance policy that protects them in that event.

I don't think any insurance company is going to write a policy that will pay them tens of millions in lost potential income ... would they?

You can get an insurance policy on anything, and it's a sure thing that many of these guys have injury policies with stiff premiums, given their line of work.  I wouldn't doubt these guys are heavily marketed to by insurance companies, given their incomes.

I just doubt that those policies would pay out tens of millions, but OK.

 

[Kin]

OK then, but it would cost Mitch many pretty pennies.  I say, take the mountains of cash now, worry about potential lost earnings that would make those mountains marginally higher later.

I'm not sure it would cost him all that much. Again, legitimate career ending injuries are pretty rare for young guys and covering the cost of the policy may very well amount to a negligible consideration when negotiating his next deal.

Hockey players as a rule are small c conservative about their money so a lot of them do take the bigger deals but I really think that if a top tier guy took a series of shorter term deals and was serious about maximizing the dollar value on each deal it could legitimately end up being worth 10-20 million over the course of a career.

 

[Kin]

I just doubt that those policies would pay out tens of millions, but OK.

Admittedly I'm no expert but I think the entire premise of the insurance business was that things got insured for roughly what they're worth. If a player values his career earnings at 10 million or 20 million or 50 million and wants to insure that then the insurance company does their actuarial stuff, comes up with a premium high enough to make it a likelihood that they end up in the black on the whole thing.

And if you think that in order to do that the premiums would need to be outrageously high, this is where we get back to you probably overestimating the risk of a career ending injury.

 

[Hobbes]

I just doubt that those policies would pay out tens of millions, but OK.

Admittedly I'm no expert but I think the entire premise of the insurance business was that things got insured for roughly what they're worth. If a player values his career earnings at 10 million or 20 million or 50 million and wants to insure that then the insurance company does their actuarial stuff, comes up with a premium high enough to make it a likelihood that they end up in the black on the whole thing.

And if you think that in order to do that the premiums would need to be outrageously high, this is where we get back to you probably overestimating the risk of a career ending injury.

http://www.suttonspecialrisk.com/Sell_Sheets/SSR%20Professional%20Sports%20Coverage.pdf

And that's just one of a few dozen companies that came up when I googled for professional athlete insurance policies

 

[Kin]

I just doubt that those policies would pay out tens of millions, but OK.

Admittedly I'm no expert but I think the entire premise of the insurance business was that things got insured for roughly what they're worth. If a player values his career earnings at 10 million or 20 million or 50 million and wants to insure that then the insurance company does their actuarial stuff, comes up with a premium high enough to make it a likelihood that they end up in the black on the whole thing.

And if you think that in order to do that the premiums would need to be outrageously high, this is where we get back to you probably overestimating the risk of a career ending injury.

http://www.suttonspecialrisk.com/Sell_Sheets/SSR%20Professional%20Sports%20Coverage.pdf

Yeah, I knew it existed. I know that a ton of football players in the states get big policies in their last year of NCAA play pre-draft ever since a big deal running back for Miami, I'm blanking on the exact guy, tore his ACL or something in his final bowl game. Obviously those guys are more limited in the size of policy than someone already making millions but they're still pretty big.

edit: a google search tells me the Miami running back I was thinking of was Willis McGahee.

 

[Joe S.]

So IF Marner were to sign an offer sheet and leave, how would he be received when that team comes to Toronto for the first time? Would it be like Tavares on Long Island? Do Leaf fans have it in them to behave that way?

Honestly who cares? I mean I guess you do but I really don?t. How a bunch of people I don?t know will react to a player who signed a contract with another team? What does it matter?

 

[Guilt Trip]

So IF Marner were to sign an offer sheet and leave, how would he be received when that team comes to Toronto for the first time? Would it be like Tavares on Long Island? Do Leaf fans have it in them to behave that way?

Honestly who cares? I mean I guess you do but I really don?t. How a bunch of people I don?t know will react to a player who signed a contract with another team? What does it matter?

If he's offered stupid money, all the power to him. Either way here's how it works.  I enjoy watching Marner play for the Leafs. I'm a Leafs fans and will be Leafs fans regardless of who puts on the jersey so it won't affect how I cheer for the team.

 

[Chris]

So IF Marner were to sign an offer sheet and leave, how would he be received when that team comes to Toronto for the first time? Would it be like Tavares on Long Island? Do Leaf fans have it in them to behave that way?

Honestly who cares? I mean I guess you do but I really don?t. How a bunch of people I don?t know will react to a player who signed a contract with another team? What does it matter?

I don't care that you don't care, but thanks for your precious response.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

I think that people that are getting too emotionally invested in this need to realize that:

a) The player/agent is not negotiating with the fanbase. Stop taking it so personally.

b) Ownership considers all of their athletes primarily as commodities. Understanding this might contextualize the process.

 

[Kin]

It's a little funny that a bunch of hyper-involved fans seem so upset by the concept of an agent negotiating in the media when the only rationale for an agent to do that is the hope that hyper-involved fans will then put pressure on the GM to accept the player's demands.

So, really, the best approach to this if you don't like the tactics is to chill out.

 

[ZBBM]

I just doubt that those policies would pay out tens of millions, but OK.

Admittedly I'm no expert but I think the entire premise of the insurance business was that things got insured for roughly what they're worth. If a player values his career earnings at 10 million or 20 million or 50 million and wants to insure that then the insurance company does their actuarial stuff, comes up with a premium high enough to make it a likelihood that they end up in the black on the whole thing.

And if you think that in order to do that the premiums would need to be outrageously high, this is where we get back to you probably overestimating the risk of a career ending injury.

I'm out of my depth here too but it just seems like a stretch for a client to go to a company and say, "Hey, I just signed a contract for $50M but you know I could have signed for $80M but I decided not to, can you insure me for the difference if I crash my skateboard or Marchand licks me and I get debilitating hepatitis?"

I guess anything's possible but insuring someone for money they willingly turn down just seems weird.

 

[dappleganger]

I really want the Leafs to flip the script here. Sign Rantanen to an offer sheet that Colorado won't match and then tell Marner to go sign an offer sheet with someone else because the Leafs ain't signing ya.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I really want the Leafs to flip the script here. Sign Rantanen to an offer sheet that Colorado won't match and then tell Marner to go sign an offer sheet with someone else because the Leafs ain't signing ya.

I'd rather have Marner. Brayden Point on the other hand...