Mitch Marner: what now?

[Peter D.]

Dreger's literally giving us a play-by-play here. More than we've seen from other negotiations. He's not getting the info from Dubas, and it's incredibly unlikely he's making things up. So that leaves only one possibility.

Don't get me started on Dreger, who I think is an absolute blowhard.

He said on the radio every tweet he posts is 100% facts?

spec?u?la?tion
/ˌspekyəˈlāSH(ə)n/
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noun
noun: speculation; plural noun: speculations

    1. the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence.

I'm not following -- is this to suggest he is speculating, or is this confirmation that he is indeed being leaked info?

For me, I just find him irrelevant now.  I don't put much stock in what he has to offer anymore. 

 

[Guilt Trip]

I heard a Burke interview and he seems to think the hold up with Marner is term, not dollars. Apparently 10 mill is the number, Leafs want 8 Marner wants 5. He doesn't buy the 2 year bridge deal either or an offer sheet for Marner. Like everyone else with an opinion, we'll see who's right in the end.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I heard a Burke interview and he seems to think the hold up with Marner is term, not dollars. Apparently 10 mill is the number, Leafs want 8 Marner wants 5. He doesn't buy the 2 year bridge deal either or an offer sheet for Marner. Like everyone else with an opinion, we'll see who's right in the end.

The term thing has been brought up by others too. Pretty much no chance he signs for 8 or even 7 years. This is where I really don't blame him, elite stars shouldn't be locking themselves into a rate for that long and it's probably a trend that we'll see happen more and more.

 

[L K]

I heard a Burke interview and he seems to think the hold up with Marner is term, not dollars. Apparently 10 mill is the number, Leafs want 8 Marner wants 5. He doesn't buy the 2 year bridge deal either or an offer sheet for Marner. Like everyone else with an opinion, we'll see who's right in the end.

The term thing has been brought up by others too. Pretty much no chance he signs for 8 or even 7 years. This is where I really don't blame him, elite stars shouldn't be locking themselves into a rate for that long and it's probably a trend that we'll see happen more and more.

Yeah, I do understand it.  I mean I don't love the idea of 10 million for shorter term, I can absolutely understand it over 8 years. 

 

[Zee]

I heard a Burke interview and he seems to think the hold up with Marner is term, not dollars. Apparently 10 mill is the number, Leafs want 8 Marner wants 5. He doesn't buy the 2 year bridge deal either or an offer sheet for Marner. Like everyone else with an opinion, we'll see who's right in the end.

The term thing has been brought up by others too. Pretty much no chance he signs for 8 or even 7 years. This is where I really don't blame him, elite stars shouldn't be locking themselves into a rate for that long and it's probably a trend that we'll see happen more and more.

I'm no math wizard, but he wants 5, Leafs want 8, 5+8=13/2=6.5.  Let's meet at a 6 year deal and call it a day.

 

[lamajama]

I just don't get it.  This is how negotiations go.  He saw how the Nylander and Matthews negotiations played out and now he wants his own.  And deservedly so.  Don't understand why Marner of all players should be made the example of at this point or be the target of dislike from the fans.

If he entertains offers from other teams, so be it.  That's a tool players can use and i don't see why more players don't use it (provided there are willing teams to engage).

The differences were pretty clearly laid out. Neither Nylander or Matthews sought out or entertained offer sheets. And the amount of negotiating through the media for Nylander and Matthews combined doesn't even come close to what we've seen with Marner in just the last few weeks. Matthews' in particular was pretty much kept entirely under wraps until it was announced. Maybe it doesn't bother you, and that's fine, but these are nowhere close to being the same kinds of negotiations.

I agree 100% with Carlton in that thru DD we?re getting what I think is Paul Marner?s ?input?. That and the fact Mitch is a home town boy and Leaf fans are taking this stance real or imagined as an insult.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I heard a Burke interview and he seems to think the hold up with Marner is term, not dollars. Apparently 10 mill is the number, Leafs want 8 Marner wants 5. He doesn't buy the 2 year bridge deal either or an offer sheet for Marner. Like everyone else with an opinion, we'll see who's right in the end.

The term thing has been brought up by others too. Pretty much no chance he signs for 8 or even 7 years. This is where I really don't blame him, elite stars shouldn't be locking themselves into a rate for that long and it's probably a trend that we'll see happen more and more.

I'm no math wizard, but he wants 5, Leafs want 8, 5+8=13/2=6.5.  Let's meet at a 6 year deal and call it a day.

Yup, he comes up when JT does and with JT off the books, the dollars will be there for him, if he's still a Leaf. Do it!!

 

[Zee]

I heard a Burke interview and he seems to think the hold up with Marner is term, not dollars. Apparently 10 mill is the number, Leafs want 8 Marner wants 5. He doesn't buy the 2 year bridge deal either or an offer sheet for Marner. Like everyone else with an opinion, we'll see who's right in the end.

The term thing has been brought up by others too. Pretty much no chance he signs for 8 or even 7 years. This is where I really don't blame him, elite stars shouldn't be locking themselves into a rate for that long and it's probably a trend that we'll see happen more and more.

I'm no math wizard, but he wants 5, Leafs want 8, 5+8=13/2=6.5.  Let's meet at a 6 year deal and call it a day.

Yup, he comes up when JT does and with JT off the books, the dollars will be there for him, if he's still a Leaf. Do it!!

I mean it's good cause it's an extra year and all, but really the Leafs wouldn't have any sort of cap problem even if Marner signed for 5 years.  Yes, Matthews, Marner and Nylander would all be up in the same summer, but you know how many players they currently have signed in 2024-2025?  1.  I'm pretty sure they would know how to allocate the dollars based on the cap.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Yes, Matthews, Marner and Nylander would all be up in the same summer, but you know how many players they currently have signed in 2024-2025?  1.  I'm pretty sure they would know how to allocate the dollars based on the cap.

Their 3rd contracts will all be so much easier to negotiate than their 2nd too. You know exactly what you've got by then.

 

[ZBBM]

I heard a Burke interview and he seems to think the hold up with Marner is term, not dollars. Apparently 10 mill is the number, Leafs want 8 Marner wants 5. He doesn't buy the 2 year bridge deal either or an offer sheet for Marner. Like everyone else with an opinion, we'll see who's right in the end.

The term thing has been brought up by others too. Pretty much no chance he signs for 8 or even 7 years. This is where I really don't blame him, elite stars shouldn't be locking themselves into a rate for that long and it's probably a trend that we'll see happen more and more.

I don't know how contract guarantees and insurance and all that works but what if he signs say a 3x8 or whatever and then had a career-ending injury?  Wouldn't he have been better off locking in an 8x10?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don't know how contract guarantees and insurance and all that works but what if he signs say a 3x8 or whatever and then had a career-ending injury?  Wouldn't he have been better off locking in an 8x10?

Well I think 5 becomes the new standard, not 3. But in any event I think the idea that RFAs are terrified about career-ending injuries is pretty overblown. I mean Matthews didn't seem to care and he's had his fair share of injury problems in his early hockey career already.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I heard a Burke interview and he seems to think the hold up with Marner is term, not dollars. Apparently 10 mill is the number, Leafs want 8 Marner wants 5. He doesn't buy the 2 year bridge deal either or an offer sheet for Marner. Like everyone else with an opinion, we'll see who's right in the end.

The term thing has been brought up by others too. Pretty much no chance he signs for 8 or even 7 years. This is where I really don't blame him, elite stars shouldn't be locking themselves into a rate for that long and it's probably a trend that we'll see happen more and more.

I don't know how contract guarantees and insurance and all that works but what if he signs say a 3x8 or whatever and then had a career-ending injury?  Wouldn't he have been better off locking in an 8x10?

There is always that risk. Burke also mentioned that in his interview. Players are more antsy to sign when they're playing because injuries happen. He said JT and Marner both risked injury but once they're not playing, the urgency to sign goes away. Generally they don't get nasty injuries during the off season so they're in no hurry to sign.

 

[Hobbes]

I don't know how contract guarantees and insurance and all that works but what if he signs say a 3x8 or whatever and then had a career-ending injury?  Wouldn't he have been better off locking in an 8x10?

Well I think 5 becomes the new standard, not 3. But in any event I think the idea that RFAs are terrified about career-ending injuries is pretty overblown. I mean Matthews didn't seem to care and he's had his fair share of injury problems in his early hockey career already.

I believe that the player is guaranteed the full amount of his salary on LTIR and the team reclaims that through insurance. They're required to show up for an entrance physical and an exit physical each year to prove they're unfit to play. There are some exceptions to that...Horton isn't covered by insurance because his was a pre-existing condition when he signed his deal so the Leafs have been paying it out of their own pockets...and their willingness to do so is how they were able to swap him for Clarkson's contract. The cash-poor Jackets at least got a warm body to play for them vs shelling out all that money to a guy who would never play again.

I assume there's some element of job security and injury protection going through a player's mind, but overall I would expect a star player would want shorter term up until the time where he can expect to begin tailing off in production (so he can re-up at very high salaries to keep up with inflation) and then when he's on the downhill part of his career he would want to push for longer term (like Marleau wanted). For the middle and lower tier player I'd expect longer term job security becomes much more appealing.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I don't know how contract guarantees and insurance and all that works but what if he signs say a 3x8 or whatever and then had a career-ending injury?  Wouldn't he have been better off locking in an 8x10?

Well I think 5 becomes the new standard, not 3. But in any event I think the idea that RFAs are terrified about career-ending injuries is pretty overblown. I mean Matthews didn't seem to care and he's had his fair share of injury problems in his early hockey career already.

I'm not sure if 5 is the new standard for the elite. Crosby, Kane, Toews, Kessel, Malkin, Bergeron all signed 5 year deals, albeit at smaller dollars.
As for the injury front, you may be correct but I believe some players know they have a limited shelf life regardless of injury.

 

[ZBBM]

Well, I would hope that the players' agent would be bringing the injury issue to the fore.  At the kind of money we are talking about, the player is set for life anyhow but there is a significant difference in dollars.  To me, I'd lock in $80M or what have you (which may be I dunno $60M? after taxes and fees etc.) and then get back to playing video games and doing gymwork.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/1144678429796777985

I love that Ferris' first name is also Darren.

 

[Zee]

https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/1144678429796777985

I love that Ferris' first name is also Darren.

Kristen spelled Dreger wrong in the brackets.

 

[Kin]

I don't know how contract guarantees and insurance and all that works but what if he signs say a 3x8 or whatever and then had a career-ending injury?  Wouldn't he have been better off locking in an 8x10?

If a player is really that terrified of a career ending injury, which are pretty rare even in a sport like hockey, they can get an insurance policy that protects them in that event.

 

[Guilt Trip]

https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/1144678429796777985

I love that Ferris' first name is also Darren.

Kristen spelled Dreger wrong in the brackets.

OMG I LOL'd right there!!!

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/1144678429796777985

I love that Ferris' first name is also Darren.

https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/1144679559146692608