RedLeaf said:
I don't think him playing with a different team is the most likely outcome if that's what you're asking, but I certainly think there's a chance of it.
Mitch Marner: what now?
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I don't think him playing with a different team is the most likely outcome if that's what you're asking, but I certainly think there's a chance of it.
dappleganger
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RedLeaf said:
I'd peg it very low, less than 5% if even that high. Everything points against it.
First, a team must be willing to give up 4 firsts which is a lot to give up for Marner.
Second, Leafs can match any offer which they most certainly would.
Third, Marner must be willing to go, which if we're being honest, he does seem to like being a Leaf and likes his teammates.
The teams that will be able to offer $10m+ will not be in a position to contend which I think will also be a consideration. Leafs are a contender now.
The NHL restricted free agent system is extremely restrictive and non-competitive.
mr grieves
New member
Dappleganger said:
I'd say 5% chance via offer-sheet, for the reasons you list. Highly unlikely the Leafs get forced into a corner.
But an offer sheet isn't the only way he isn't on the Leafs next season. If his side is serious about $10m+, the Leafs could start fielding offers from teams that'd be willing to go that distance.
herman
Well-known member
| Can Offer Sheet max: | Contending Now | Raw* Cap Space for 11M |
Anaheim Ducks Arizona Coyotes Boston Bruins Buffalo Sabres Calgary Flames Carolina Hurricanes Chicago Blackhawks Colorado Avalanche Columbus Blue Jackets Dallas Stars Detroit Red Wings Edmonton Oilers Florida Panthers Los Angeles Kings Minnesota Wild Montreal Canadiens Nashville Predators New Jersey Devils New York Islanders New York Rangers Ottawa Senators Philadelphia Flyers Pittsburgh Penguins San Jose Sharks St. Louis Blues Tampa Bay Lightning Vancouver Canucks Vegas Golden Knights Washington Capitals Winnipeg Jets | Boston Bruins Calgary Flames Carolina Hurricanes Colorado Avalanche Columbus Blue Jackets Dallas Stars Edmonton Oilers Florida Panthers Montreal Canadiens Nashville Predators New York Islanders Philadelphia Flyers Pittsburgh Penguins San Jose Sharks St. Louis Blues Tampa Bay Lightning Vegas Golden Knights Washington Capitals Winnipeg Jets | Boston Bruins Calgary Flames Carolina Hurricanes Colorado Avalanche Columbus Blue Jackets Dallas Stars Florida Panthers Montreal Canadiens New York Islanders Philadelphia Flyers San Jose Sharks St. Louis Blues Winnipeg Jets |
* cap space today assuming Marner gets 11M and the rest of the roster requirement after is filled at league minimum. Does not account for LTIR or upcoming RFA signings or obvious trades/buyouts etc.
Bender said:
All 30 other teams are listed... so I'm assuming that just means which teams have the picks.
Although the Sharks don't have their 1st rounder in 2020 so they're out. Dallas and Columbus could potentially lose theirs if they re-sign Zuccarello and Duchene.
CarltonTheBear said:
Really? That's definitely news to me! I thought the clause was there specifically to try to force teams & players to come to an agreement early in the season rather than letting it drag on. That wouldn't work if it was "artificial". If the artificial AAV has no impact, why is it even mentioned?
bustaheims
Active member
CarltonTheBear said:
Because compensation requires multiple picks in the same round, teams get an extra year to make it work. So, as long as they have their 1st in 4 of the next 5 drafts, they're eligible (at least, based on my reading). So, San Jose could technically still make it work.
bustaheims
Active member
princedpw said:
It's so teams don't wait into the season to get try to get a lower cap hit on the player's contract that season. For example, with Nylander last season, the Leafs would have only been on the hook for ~2/3 of his cap hit last season without this clause. Instead, they had to carry the full season hit without getting a full season of Nylander.
bustaheims said:
I see, so waiting incurs neither an advantage nor a penalty.
It still seems that since the leafs will be forced to fill out their roster by the start of training camp and because they are at the cap, the amount of money they can give Marner will essentially be fixed. Whatever amount of money that happens to be, I imagine they'll offer it to him and he wouldn't appear to have many options other than to accept it at that point --- any offer sheet would come before that point and other teams are going to be equally capped out. I'm having trouble coming up with a scenario where it makes sense for either side to try to continue to eeke out a few extra dollars into training camp.
bustaheims
Active member
princedpw said:
It's penalty in that they have to pay a full season cap for a partial season performance, but, other than that, yeah. There's no additional cap added or reduced.
bustaheims said:
Ah, never heard of that wrinkle before but looks like you're right (although it's worded very weirdly in the CBA).
Sure would be nice if Rantanen would just sign his contract already.
Guilt Trip
Active member
And we'll take the 4 1sts thank you very much but we all know, no one is giving up 4 1sts for him. Point and Rantanen have a better chance of that happening and they're not getting it either. Picks are way too important.Zee said:
Guilt Trip said:
They're not even just important in terms of keeping your prospect pool alive, but it eliminates potential trade chips for deadline day (or any time of the year) acquisitions. The acquiring team can't deal 1sts anymore to shore up a potential weakness heading into the playoffs, and they probably won't want to deal a lot of their future 2nd rounders either knowing all their 1sts are already gone. That really puts a Cup-chasing team at a disadvantage.
Zee
Active member
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
I can't wait until this is all over. I really like Marner, and I think he'll continue to have amazing seasons playing with Tavares, I just hope they get a deal done soon that both sides can live with. Put this crap in the rear view mirror and lets go get our 2-3 Cups in the next 5 years.
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