Nonis using depth to go shopping....

[Jalili]

So what's the most you would be willing to pay Kessel? I would be ok with about 51 million over 7 years, AAV of about 7.3. I think offering him maximum term could soften the cap hit, and Phil is very likely to have another 7 years of elite hockey left in him.

Not sure, but I wouldn't be tickled pink if that's how much it took to keep him.

I really hope the guys who are confident he'll re-sign and take a hometown discount are right.

 

[Bullfrog]

I'm confident he'll re-sign. I doubt very highly there'll be a hometown discount.

 

[gilmourthegreat]

So what's the most you would be willing to pay Kessel? I would be ok with about 51 million over 7 years, AAV of about 7.3. I think offering him maximum term could soften the cap hit, and Phil is very likely to have another 7 years of elite hockey left in him.

Not sure, but I wouldn't be tickled pink if that's how much it took to keep him.

I really hope the guys who are confident he'll re-sign and take a hometown discount are right.

I don't buy into the hometown discount theory. Phil hates the limelight; I doubt he would have ever signed in the biggest hockey hotbed if he hadn't established roots here, and I still am not sure he will.

Kessel seems like an Anaheim/San Jose kind of guy, i.e. play the game hard and then walk home without anyone recognizing you.

You may be right Snoop, it might take 7.5 or 8 million per year to keep Kessel, and if it does take anything over 7.5, I say trade him at the deadline or let him walk. He may score like a lot of the guys currently getting paid 8 million, but he doesn't provide any of the benefits (such as physicality, leadership, size, shutdown defence, etc) most of them do.

You look at Kadri's persality, and he seems born to play in a hockey-crazy city. Then you look at Kessel, and you wonder how he hasn't had a nervous breakdown yet.

 

[ZBBM]

My top price for him is even lower but otherwise what you said is what I say.

 

[cw]

I'm not concerned even a little bit about Kessel leaving. He's not.

If I had to bet on it, I'd bet he's not on the Leafs roster after 2013-14.

Well, I think that's incredibly paranoid of you. I believe the only reason he hasn't been signed to an extension already is that the rules prevent it.

I think this post covers some of it:

I don't buy into the hometown discount theory. Phil hates the limelight; I doubt he would have ever signed in the biggest hockey hotbed if he hadn't established roots here, and I still am not sure he will.

Kessel seems like an Anaheim/San Jose kind of guy, i.e. play the game hard and then walk home without anyone recognizing you.
....
You look at Kadri's persality, and he seems born to play in a hockey-crazy city. Then you look at Kessel, and you wonder how he hasn't had a nervous breakdown yet.

He's American and might want to play closer to home or under US taxation.

As it looks now, by the end of 2014, he'll have played in Toronto for five years - during his prime scoring years - without a franchise center, arguably without a stud dman and without a top goalie. How and when are they going to get those guys so that they can contend since they're a playoff club that won't be getting top picks and the UFA market tends to be barren of them?

If he wants to win a Cup, other destinations or styles of play/coaches might appeal more. If winning a Cup is the most important thing for him, how does Toronto make the case they provide him with the best chance to do so?

He's going to command big bucks and term regardless of where he plays. The above are very common reasons why UFAs move on to other destinations. Paranoia has nothing to do with it.

 

[princedpw]

... The above are very common reasons why UFAs move on to other destinations. Paranoia has nothing to do with it.

However, all of these arguments are balanced by the fact that these days, it seems, most top UFAs seem to stay put when their current team has strong financial resources and wants to keep them.

 

[Jalili]

I share a lot of those sentiments as well regarding Kessel.

Still though, the deal Carolina gave Semin... That wouldn't be bad at all, might actually be solid for both sides.

 

[TML fan]

I'm not concerned even a little bit about Kessel leaving. He's not.

If I had to bet on it, I'd bet he's not on the Leafs roster after 2013-14.

Well, I think that's incredibly paranoid of you. I believe the only reason he hasn't been signed to an extension already is that the rules prevent it.

I think this post covers some of it:

I don't buy into the hometown discount theory. Phil hates the limelight; I doubt he would have ever signed in the biggest hockey hotbed if he hadn't established roots here, and I still am not sure he will.

Kessel seems like an Anaheim/San Jose kind of guy, i.e. play the game hard and then walk home without anyone recognizing you.
....
You look at Kadri's persality, and he seems born to play in a hockey-crazy city. Then you look at Kessel, and you wonder how he hasn't had a nervous breakdown yet.

He's American and might want to play closer to home or under US taxation.

As it looks now, by the end of 2014, he'll have played in Toronto for five years - during his prime scoring years - without a franchise center, arguably without a stud dman and without a top goalie. How and when are they going to get those guys so that they can contend since they're a playoff club that won't be getting top picks and the UFA market tends to be barren of them?

If he wants to win a Cup, other destinations or styles of play/coaches might appeal more. If winning a Cup is the most important thing for him, how does Toronto make the case they provide him with the best chance to do so?

He's going to command big bucks and term regardless of where he plays. The above are very common reasons why UFAs move on to other destinations. Paranoia has nothing to do with it.

Maybe he'll sign in Florida because he's American!

Just wait and see. 5/6 year extension. Probably wont be done until January, just to give the media folks something to rile up Leafs nation.

 

[gilmourthegreat]

I'm not concerned even a little bit about Kessel leaving. He's not.

If I had to bet on it, I'd bet he's not on the Leafs roster after 2013-14.

Well, I think that's incredibly paranoid of you. I believe the only reason he hasn't been signed to an extension already is that the rules prevent it.

I think this post covers some of it:

I don't buy into the hometown discount theory. Phil hates the limelight; I doubt he would have ever signed in the biggest hockey hotbed if he hadn't established roots here, and I still am not sure he will.

Kessel seems like an Anaheim/San Jose kind of guy, i.e. play the game hard and then walk home without anyone recognizing you.
....
You look at Kadri's persality, and he seems born to play in a hockey-crazy city. Then you look at Kessel, and you wonder how he hasn't had a nervous breakdown yet.

He's American and might want to play closer to home or under US taxation.

As it looks now, by the end of 2014, he'll have played in Toronto for five years - during his prime scoring years - without a franchise center, arguably without a stud dman and without a top goalie. How and when are they going to get those guys so that they can contend since they're a playoff club that won't be getting top picks and the UFA market tends to be barren of them?

If he wants to win a Cup, other destinations or styles of play/coaches might appeal more. If winning a Cup is the most important thing for him, how does Toronto make the case they provide him with the best chance to do so?

He's going to command big bucks and term regardless of where he plays. The above are very common reasons why UFAs move on to other destinations. Paranoia has nothing to do with it.

Maybe he'll sign in Florida because he's American!

Just wait and see. 5/6 year extension. Probably wont be done until January, just to give the media folks something to rile up Leafs nation.

Given his age and production, some team will probably be willing to give Kessel a 7-year deal. I don't see why he would sign for less.

 

[TML fan]

I'm not concerned even a little bit about Kessel leaving. He's not.

If I had to bet on it, I'd bet he's not on the Leafs roster after 2013-14.

Well, I think that's incredibly paranoid of you. I believe the only reason he hasn't been signed to an extension already is that the rules prevent it.

I think this post covers some of it:

I don't buy into the hometown discount theory. Phil hates the limelight; I doubt he would have ever signed in the biggest hockey hotbed if he hadn't established roots here, and I still am not sure he will.

Kessel seems like an Anaheim/San Jose kind of guy, i.e. play the game hard and then walk home without anyone recognizing you.
....
You look at Kadri's persality, and he seems born to play in a hockey-crazy city. Then you look at Kessel, and you wonder how he hasn't had a nervous breakdown yet.

He's American and might want to play closer to home or under US taxation.

As it looks now, by the end of 2014, he'll have played in Toronto for five years - during his prime scoring years - without a franchise center, arguably without a stud dman and without a top goalie. How and when are they going to get those guys so that they can contend since they're a playoff club that won't be getting top picks and the UFA market tends to be barren of them?

If he wants to win a Cup, other destinations or styles of play/coaches might appeal more. If winning a Cup is the most important thing for him, how does Toronto make the case they provide him with the best chance to do so?

He's going to command big bucks and term regardless of where he plays. The above are very common reasons why UFAs move on to other destinations. Paranoia has nothing to do with it.

Maybe he'll sign in Florida because he's American!

Just wait and see. 5/6 year extension. Probably wont be done until January, just to give the media folks something to rile up Leafs nation.

Given his age and production, some team will probably be willing to give Kessel a 7-year deal. I don't see why he would sign for less.

I don't think he'll want a 7 year deal, but if he does, I think the Leafs will give it to him.

 

[gilmourthegreat]

Agreed. Hopefully the guaranteed extra year or two will convince Kessel to sign for a slightly lower AAV.

 

[Kin]

I don't think he'll want a 7 year deal, but if he does, I think the Leafs will give it to him.

I have to ask, just because I'm genuinely curious, but why don't you think that Kessel, or any hockey player really, would want the longest possible deal at the highest possible AAV?

 

[Redleaf]

I don't think he'll want a 7 year deal, but if he does, I think the Leafs will give it to him.

I have to ask, just because I'm genuinely curious, but why don't you think that Kessel, or any hockey player really, would want the longest possible deal at the highest possible AAV?

Is that a trick question?

 

[Kin]

Is that a trick question?

Nope. I mean, considering how we got Kessel in the first place he seems like an odd candidate for taking one for the team to begin with.

 

[TML fan]

I don't think he'll want a 7 year deal, but if he does, I think the Leafs will give it to him.

I have to ask, just because I'm genuinely curious, but why don't you think that Kessel, or any hockey player really, would want the longest possible deal at the highest possible AAV?

I think he is more likely to get a longer term the next time he reaches free agency at 30 rather than at 32.

At this point, I think the Leafs genuinely have something to offer Kessel from a competitive standpoint. I think he genuinely doesn't care about the media scrutiny or the spotlight, in fact I think he likes it. He's a very competitive guy and I think it gives him something to prove.

That said, he may decide to move on at some point, or he wants more money or whatever, and I think a shorter term now gives him better free agency years to bargain with in the future.

 

[Kin]

I think he is more likely to get a longer term the next time he reaches free agency at 30 rather than at 32.

That strikes me as kind of a risky proposition though. Kessel is a player who derives a ton of his value from speed so I'd think he'd want to maximize his earnings when he was closest to his prime. It's not like 32 is too old to get a lucrative deal either.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I don't think he'll want a 7 year deal, but if he does, I think the Leafs will give it to him.

I have to ask, just because I'm genuinely curious, but why don't you think that Kessel, or any hockey player really, would want the longest possible deal at the highest possible AAV?

I think he is more likely to get a longer term the next time he reaches free agency at 30 rather than at 32.

I'm not so sure that would apply with the risk to health and all. I mean it would be great for Kessel if he could say "I'll be healthy until 30 and then I'll sign the big one", but I know I'd be all over the big deal now if it was in front of me. Who knows what happens tomorrow or next year.

 

[TML fan]

I think he is more likely to get a longer term the next time he reaches free agency at 30 rather than at 32.

That strikes me as kind of a risky proposition though. Kessel is a player who derives a ton of his value from speed so I'd think he'd want to maximize his earnings when he was closest to his prime. It's not like 32 is too old to get a lucrative deal either.

Perhaps.

 

[Kin]

Maybe it's just me but I think the whole more money/shorter term vs. longer term/less AAV choice is probably going to not be something we see a lot of in the new CBA. I think that when you saw it in the old CBA most of the time it was where players of either high or medium-high value got a term that really exceeded what made a lot of sense. Christian Ehrhoff, for instance, probably gave up some AAV to get a deal that was longer than anyone should have given Christian Ehrhoff, likewise some stars got 10 or 12 or 13 year deals and lowered their AAV by adding on years of low salary.

Now, though, when deals are capped at a pretty sensible 7/8 year length already I'm thinking that most of the top end players are going to feel as though they're getting shorter deals than they'd ideally like before you even start talking about money. I don't know if telling a player like Kessel that they only want to give him a 5 year deal but they'd be willing to give him a longer one if he gives them a break on the dough is going to be seen as anything other than lowballing him.

Maybe it's just that I've been oversaturated by the NBA but I can't help but feel that we'll see just about any UFA worth his salt getting a deal of the maximum possible length.

 

[gilmourthegreat]

Maybe it's just me but I think the whole more money/shorter term vs. longer term/less AAV choice is probably going to not be something we see a lot of in the new CBA. I think that when you saw it in the old CBA most of the time it was where players of either high or medium-high value got a term that really exceeded what made a lot of sense. Christian Ehrhoff, for instance, probably gave up some AAV to get a deal that was longer than anyone should have given Christian Ehrhoff, likewise some stars got 10 or 12 or 13 year deals and lowered their AAV by adding on years of low salary.

Now, though, when deals are capped at a pretty sensible 7/8 year length already I'm thinking that most of the top end players are going to feel as though they're getting shorter deals than they'd ideally like before you even start talking about money. I don't know if telling a player like Kessel that they only want to give him a 5 year deal but they'd be willing to give him a longer one if he gives them a break on the dough is going to be seen as anything other than lowballing him.

Maybe it's just that I've been oversaturated by the NBA but I can't help but feel that we'll see just about any UFA worth his salt getting a deal of the maximum possible length.

I agree, I think the NBA sets a good precedent here, the main difference being that NBA stars are relatively more important to their teams, so we won't see many, if any, NHL stars get the maximum annual salary.