Official Armchair GM Thread 2014-2015 Leafs

[Chev-boyar-sky]

Yeah. I was going to jump on that one too, but you guys beat me to it. I think you would have to add a piece with phaneuf to make the deal work with LA's 1st.

I'd say it's quite the opposite. LA would have to add something more than their 1st round pick for the Leafs to be willing to take on the cap albatross that is Richards AND give up Phaneuf in the process. They'll get better offers from other teams in the summer, for sure.

It probably more my disdain for Phaneuf....but I just think back to when Brian Campbell was traded to Florida.  Similar cap hit to Phaneuf,  probably equal as a player (both overpaid) and Chicago got Rostislav Olesz.  Im hoping a deal for Phaneuf will be along those lines where the win in the trade from a Leafs Perspective is the cap space and flexibility. 

Its hard to believe Phaneuf makes as much as Drew Doughty...Nonis should be fired simply for that.  I remember watching the 24/7 when they signed him before the winter classic.  I could not believe it

There are more than a few factors that make that a bad comparison.

Campbell's deal ($7.14M per) started in 2009 when the salary cap was $56.8M.

Phaneuf's deal ($7M per) starts next year with this years cap already at $69M (could be slightly more next year). That's a difference of 2.5% of the entire cap between the 2. Moreso if next years cap is higher.

Chicago was still in a bind trying to fit Keith, Toews, Kane, Hossa, Sharp et al after Tallon messed up the the RFA situation and the RFA's were all awarded high salaries (I think Bolland was among them). Versteeg, Byfuglien and Campbell were all traded for cheap as a result.

The return on Campbell was not fully indicative of the player/contract (still wasn't a great contract) but more the situation.

The Leafs aren't in a similar position with Phaneuf. He's therefore much more valuable as a result.

 

[bustaheims]

True, but now the leafs are going to lose Cody Franson, who i think is equally as good as phaneuf if not better, because of cap mismanagement.  Even if they wanted to sign him, they simply can't!

They're not losing him because of cap mismanagement. They're likely going to trade him because they don't value him at the level of salary he's going to be commanding. And, for what it's worth, I don't think Franson is anywhere near as good as Phaneuf. Phaneuf is still a top pairing calibre defenceman. At worst, he's a #3 on a really deep team. Franson, on the other hand, is really a 2nd/3rd pairing type PP specialist type.

 

[wnc096]

True, but now the leafs are going to lose Cody Franson, who i think is equally as good as phaneuf if not better, because of cap mismanagement.  Even if they wanted to sign him, they simply can't!

They're not losing him because of cap mismanagement. They're likely going to trade him because they don't value him at the level of salary he's going to be commanding. And, for what it's worth, I don't think Franson is anywhere near as good as Phaneuf. Phaneuf is still a top pairing calibre defenceman. At worst, he's a #3 on a really deep team. Franson, on the other hand, is really a 2nd/3rd pairing type PP specialist type.

You're probably right about Franson.  I still can't understand why they gave Phaneuf that contract though...I can't imagine how his agent was able to justify how he deserved a raise from his previous contract in Calgary, when he frankly was a better player...then again we are talking about Nonis here

I just want him off the team  lol

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Franson, on the other hand, is really a 2nd/3rd pairing type PP specialist type.

Throwing "3rd" into there is pretty harsh I think. I know that you're worried about him just having a career year, but focusing on just this season only where would you say he's ranked among Leafs defencemen? I'd say that he's been our best blueliner this season (not exactly saying much, I know).

 

[Kin]

You're probably right about Franson.  I still can't understand why they gave Phaneuf that contract though...I can't imagine how his agent was able to justify how he deserved a raise from his previous contract in Calgary, when he frankly was a better player...then again we are talking about Nonis here

It's pretty simple and explains a lot of what you find strange about his contract. UFA's have more negotiating leverage than RFA's. When Phaneuf was having 20 goal and 60 point seasons he couldn't use what he'd get on the open market as leverage and so he got below that. With the Leafs he could.

Drew Doughty, similarly, signed his deal as an RFA. He didn't have the leverage Phaneuf does. Look at the deals signed by guys like Subban and Suter and Weber where teams were paying for UFA years. You can still make the argument that the Leafs overvalued Phaneuf but the reality is he was almost certain to get as much as he got on the open market.

 

[bustaheims]

Throwing "3rd" into there is pretty harsh I think. I know that you're worried about him just having a career year, but focusing on just this season only where would you say he's ranked among Leafs defencemen? I'd say that he's been our best blueliner this season (not exactly saying much, I know).

It's really not saying anything. On a contending team, I think there's a very real chance he'd be on the 3rd pairing going forward. He's been better this season, but, that could very well just be in contrast to the awful that's surrounded him. Valuations shouldn't be made on single seasons. They should be made on multiple years and on where he'd realistically fit in on the team as it becomes a contender. To me, his value is nowhere near the kind of contract he's going to end up with.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

It's really not saying anything. On a contending team, I think there's a very real chance he'd be on the 3rd pairing.

I'll take your dodging of the question as agreement he's been our best defenceman

I guess we'll find out soon enough. For all the talk that he's only doing this on a bottom feeder I could just as easily make an argument that he'd look even better on a more structured team. I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see him score more/consistently on a team that's able to use their defence more in the offensive zone.

 

[bustaheims]

I'll take your dodging of the question as agreement he's been our best defenceman

I'm not sure anyone deserves to be called this team's best defenceman, though, of late, it's definitely been Rielly. Earlier in the season . . . I'd say they were are fairly equally poor.

I guess we'll find out soon enough. For all the talk that he's only doing this on a bottom feeder I could just as easily make an argument that he'd look even better on a more structured team. I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see him score more/consistently on a team that's able to use their defence more in the offensive zone.

He might be able to produce more, but, at the same time, a better team would also be able to shelter him more, because they'd have more guys who would be able to play ahead of him. He probably would look better on a deeper, more structured team, because he likely wouldn't be facing the other team's best players and he'd be getting less ES TOI and less SH TOI.

 

[Chris]

Or he (Franson) might produce less. Remember this team was the highest scoring in the league before the wheels fell off, and that helped pad his stats this year. He's got obvious offensive skills, but he's slow and prone to disastrous turnovers in his own end. Plus he's part of the failed core that has been involved in the last several years of collapses.

Think he is a prime candidate to be moved before the deadline...won't be worth what we'd need to pay to keep him around.

 

[L K]

I agree with you here busta ... except perhaps with respect to the Leafs.  JFJ was exactly that kind of pick, I remember there was lots of positive buzz when he was chosen about the Leafs's new thinking, etc.  And then he got eaten alive in the hothouse that is T.O.  So I am leery of going off the boards again, so to speak.

Sure and then JFJ's replacement was super-experienced Fletcher and he did terribly and then they brought in the dream candidate that was Burke and he didn't do much better. What the last ten years should teach people regarding the Leafs is that so long as the GM is always under pressure to win immediately they're not going to do well regardless of who the GM is.

Unless the league has a lockout, fights tooth and nail to prevent the relocation of a failing franchise, works its butt off it get it a new arena and then magically helps them win the best player of his generation in the draft lottery.

Time to start throwing rocks at all the ACC windows and prodding Jim Balsille to try and move the Leafs to Vegas.

 

[Britishbulldog]

Lupul and Santorelli for Kane.

Phaneuf for Richards and LA's 1st.

Franson and Winnik for Klingberg

Kessel out depending on the return (I'd love Strome and Reinhart)

those deals seem pretty one sided in the leafs favor...

Lupul has been on the market all year apparently, and they can't find a taker.  so the chances of him being traded for Kane are slim I'd think....even with Santorelli.

Klingberg is already better than Franson

you might get Richards for Phaneuf straight up...LA might throw a bit piece in there, but with that albatross of a contract, the team's options with Phaneuf are pretty limited

Kessel deal is plausible...depending if the NYI wanna go all in.  Still Kessel is still owed alot of $$$, so who knows how that factors in

I'm not sure they're all that much in the Leafs favour.

Lupul and Santorelli are an upgrade on an absent Kane. Relieves them of the drama as well. Kane and Lupul are the same cap hit, so they're adding little salary with Santorelli and helping their depth for a playoff run. Depends on how they view Kane I guess. Don't think they're going to get the kind of return they'd hope for but we'll see.

Klingberg is a 5th rounder with 29 goals (including his hot start in the NHL) in 194 games dating back to 2010 in all levels of competition so his start this year is pretty unsustainable. Franson would probably do pretty well playing with Seguin and Benn too. Maybe Dallas are very high on him and aren't willing to move him, but I'd look into the asking price all the same.

LA are paying Richards $5.75M to not play him. Is a 1st and an extra $1.25M worth a #2/#3 D-man? I should think so.

Kessel deal could happen as the NYI could challenge for the Cup this year, and get a big name to go along with Tavares to get the fans excited moving to Brooklyn next year.

I am with you on your assesments Chev and I think the other views are a bit negatively biased.

Lupul and Santorelli for E Kane:
This is a realistic trade.  Lupul is Kane.  Neutral: Exact same cap hits, exact same contract length, both offensive players who can play creative as well as physical. Positives are Lupul isn't a headcase and is a coveted RH shot. Negatives Lupul is older.  I think that Santorelli offsets that negative as a VERY low cost player who is a RH shot that can play center or wing effectively, has an offensive upside and can fill in on the 2nd or 3rd line easily.  Gives Winnipeg great depth heading into the playoffs.

Phaneuf for Richards and LAs 1st:
Hate the trade because I hate LA as a team and Richards as a player.  It is a realistic trade....but I hate it.    For what Richards brings to the table as a player, he is signed to a HUGE cap hit for a LONG term still.  Ick!  The 1st pick would probably be around 15th unless LA goes on a long winning streak in the playoffs.  I personally think that they might miss the playoffs this year which would make the 1st pick even better. 

I would prefer Phaneuf for O'Reilly straight up.  This has the trade happening with a team from the other conference and benefits both teams.

Franson and Winnik for Klingberg:
I feel this is also a realistic trade as it gives Dallas a solid 6'5" RH dman that is a power play specialist and plays physical. Winnik would be a huge low cost, bottom 6 asset for Dallas.  Klingberg is playing at a high rate and is probably at his highest value which is a shame.

I was wondering Franson and Winnik to Anaheim for Nick Ritchie.  I would love to see Anaheim make another run.

Kessel for Strome and Reinhart:
I feel it is realistic if NYI wants to go for the Cup now.  NYI gets one of the purest goalscorers in the league and the Leafs get a top prospect in Strome and a big LH defensive defenseman in Reinhart. 


If Phaneuf went to Colorado for O'Reilly than I would see if Bozak and Gardiner could be moved to some place like Colombus, Carolina or ?? for picks.

Quite the lineup to end the season though!!  Going for 3rd overall for sure.

 

[Bullfrog]

Phaneuf for Richards and LAs 1st:
Hate the trade because I hate LA as a team and Richards as a player.  It is a realistic trade....but I hate it.    For what Richards brings to the table as a player, he is signed to a HUGE cap hit for a LONG term still.  Ick!  The 1st pick would probably be around 15th unless LA goes on a long winning streak in the playoffs.  I personally think that they might miss the playoffs this year which would make the 1st pick even better. 

I would prefer Phaneuf for O'Reilly straight up.  This has the trade happening with a team from the other conference and benefits both teams.

Sorry, BBD, but you're out to lunch on this one. I don't think you really understand how bad Richards's contract is and I think you're really under valuing Phaneuf.

For LA's 1st rounder + Richards, I wouldn't be giving up more than Santorelli or a draft pick and certainly not a top pairing defenseman.

It's a moot point though; there's no way this team is taking on Richards AND Clarkson. $11M in cap hit on two borderline NHLers? Not going to happen.

 

[L K]

I think Richards is done as being a top 6 forward but I think it might be a little unfair to completely write off his career.

Over the last 3 years (not including this year) Richards has put up 117 points in 204 games.  That works out to 47 points/82 games played.  He also has 37P in 61 playoff games over that stretch (0.61 PPG).

This year Richards has 5G 10A in 47GP (26 points/82 games).  A drastic drop off.  A big red flag considering he still has 5 more years under contract.  He was never the greatest skater so that is a big concern but I don't think he's really in the same league as Clarkson in terms of being a big red flag.  In fact if there was some way to swap the two I would do it immediately.  I would take Richards cap hit over Clarkson's.  I think you have a better chance of getting something out of Richards than you do Clarkson.  I also think that Richards could be a cap floor option for some team in the last year or two of his deal when he is only making 3M in salary but carries almost 6M in cap hit.

I do agree that a long-term contract for Phaneuf is worth far more than a late 1st round pick and a bad contract in return.

 

[Bullfrog]

He was never the greatest skater so that is a big concern but I don't think he's really in the same league as Clarkson in terms of being a big red flag.  In fact if there was some way to swap the two I would do it immediately.  I would take Richards cap hit over Clarkson's.

Agreed. I would make that trade in a heartbeat.

 

[Britishbulldog]

Phaneuf for Richards and LAs 1st:
Hate the trade because I hate LA as a team and Richards as a player.  It is a realistic trade....but I hate it.    For what Richards brings to the table as a player, he is signed to a HUGE cap hit for a LONG term still.  Ick!  The 1st pick would probably be around 15th unless LA goes on a long winning streak in the playoffs.  I personally think that they might miss the playoffs this year which would make the 1st pick even better. 

I would prefer Phaneuf for O'Reilly straight up.  This has the trade happening with a team from the other conference and benefits both teams.

Sorry, BBD, but you're out to lunch on this one. I don't think you really understand how bad Richards's contract is and I think you're really under valuing Phaneuf.

For LA's 1st rounder + Richards, I wouldn't be giving up more than Santorelli or a draft pick and certainly not a top pairing defenseman.

It's a moot point though; there's no way this team is taking on Richards AND Clarkson. $11M in cap hit on two borderline NHLers? Not going to happen.

I would be happy to send Phaneuf anywhere not named LA or Vancouver.

 

[Crucialness Key]

COME ON GUYS START TRADING PEOPLE ALREADY AAARRRRRRRGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

endless speculation is getting to me

 

[sneakyray]

COME ON GUYS START TRADING PEOPLE ALREADY AAARRRRRRRGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

endless speculation is getting to me

haha...I was thinking the same thing.

its already bugging me and theres probably 2 more weeks at least until any trade of significance happens.

 

[bustaheims]

COME ON GUYS START TRADING PEOPLE ALREADY AAARRRRRRRGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

endless speculation is getting to me

Patience. As an old ad campaign used to say, sell no wine before its time. When the deals being presented are right, then they'll be made. No sooner than that.

 

[Chris]

Come on, the Ashton/Broll for nothing deal wasn't satisfying enough for you?

I know we're all itching for the trigger to be pulled, but I'd rather they take their time and make the best deals possible. Besides, the current roster should be able to resume the losing streak now that we'll be playing teams not named Edmonton.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

COME ON GUYS START TRADING PEOPLE ALREADY AAARRRRRRRGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

endless speculation is getting to me

Patience. As an old ad campaign used to say, sell no wine before its time. When the deals being presented are right, then they'll be made. No sooner than that.

Yes, that slogan courtesy of Paul Masson, makers of plonk a pink zin in a carafe with a tin snap top ($4.95 at Wineomart). 

I really hope they get moving.  There are only so many picks/prospects up for grab before the deadline, and I don't want to see Nonis sit idle while opportunities pass him by.  I realize that may not be rational, but I'm dealing from things from a Leaf-fan perspective; one where we miss out on everything.