Official Armchair GM Thread 2014-2015 Leafs

[bustaheims]

Yes, that slogan courtesy of Paul Masson, makers of plonk a pink zin in a carafe with a tin snap top ($4.95 at Wineomart). 

Sometimes, the worst products have the most poignant and memorable ads. ;D Honestly, how many people know the saying compared to how many people know the actual product? Or even that it comes from an ad campaign?

 

[wnc096]

COME ON GUYS START TRADING PEOPLE ALREADY AAARRRRRRRGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

endless speculation is getting to me

Patience. As an old ad campaign used to say, sell no wine before its time. When the deals being presented are right, then they'll be made. No sooner than that.

Yes, that slogan courtesy of Paul Masson, makers of plonk a pink zin in a carafe with a tin snap top ($4.95 at Wineomart). 

I really hope they get moving.  There are only so many picks/prospects up for grab before the deadline, and I don't want to see Nonis sit idle while opportunities pass him by.  I realize that may not be rational, but I'm dealing from things from a Leaf-fan perspective; one where we miss out on everything.

With the Leafs luck, Nonis will wait and hold out till the last minute and get burned with a Vanek-esque return.

 

[bustaheims]

TSN1050Radio: .@TSNBobMcKenzie says on @TSN1050Radio that the asking price for Cody Franson is apparently a 1st Round Pick and a prospect. #Leafs

Wouldn't be surprised if they get it. RHD who can move the puck relatively well and produce on the PP are always in high demand.

 

[Madferret]

Still think a 1st for Franson is a pipe dream and I'm more than interested to see what kind of returns Nonis is able to get come the deadline.
So if he's getting the green light to blow it up does that mean he won't be fired this summer after all?

 

[bustaheims]

Still think a 1st for Franson is a pipe dream and I'm more than interested to see what kind of returns Nonis is able to get come the deadline.
So if he's getting the green light to blow it up does that mean he won't be fired this summer after all?

I don't think he has green light to blow it up. He has the green light to make the straightforward, obvious moves of shipping out pending UFAs for picks/prospects. Unless we see the Leafs make a major move before he's let go, I'll continue to expect to see him replaced before the draft.

 

[Madferret]

Still think a 1st for Franson is a pipe dream and I'm more than interested to see what kind of returns Nonis is able to get come the deadline.
So if he's getting the green light to blow it up does that mean he won't be fired this summer after all?

I don't think he has green light to blow it up. He has the green light to make the straightforward, obvious moves of shipping out pending UFAs for picks/prospects. Unless we see the Leafs make a major move before he's let go, I'll continue to expect to see him replaced before the draft.

Did he not put price tags on the whole core minus JVR?
What happens if no offers come close to what he's asking for?

 

[bustaheims]

Did he not put price tags on the whole core minus JVR?
What happens if no offers come close to what he's asking for?

Not on his own, he didn't. And, really, a lot of it is the media's creation, too.

 

[Madferret]

Did he not put price tags on the whole core minus JVR?
What happens if no offers come close to what he's asking for?

Not on his own, he didn't. And, really, a lot of it is the media's creation, too.

I don't think the media has ever been this out of hand before...they've all basically gone into Eklund mode

 

[Chris]

Still think a 1st for Franson is a pipe dream and I'm more than interested to see what kind of returns Nonis is able to get come the deadline.
So if he's getting the green light to blow it up does that mean he won't be fired this summer after all?

I don't think he has green light to blow it up. He has the green light to make the straightforward, obvious moves of shipping out pending UFAs for picks/prospects. Unless we see the Leafs make a major move before he's let go, I'll continue to expect to see him replaced before the draft.

Did he not put price tags on the whole core minus JVR?
What happens if no offers come close to what he's asking for?

I'd think at this point, everyone on the team is available and has a price tag except for Rielly. He's the only player I wouldn't want to see traded. The rest can all go if the price is right.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

Still think a 1st for Franson is a pipe dream

You're either greatly overvaluing 1st rounders and/or undervaluing Franson.  Trade value is about supply and demand.  Franson has 94 points since 2012.  That's 4 more than Doughty, 2 less than Green, and only 9 less than Suter.  He's big, he's only 27, he's a right-handed shot, he plays a lot of minutes, he excels on the power play, he's durable, and he's top 20 in defensemen scoring.  He's been 11th, 20th and 9th in PP scoring in defensemen the past 3 seasons including this one, and he's a UFA after this season.

Please let us know the long list of defensemen available via trade to Cup-aspiring teams at the trade deadline that have anything comparable to that kind of resume.  When you fail to do that, and when you recognize the number of teams looking to improve their playoff prospects, you'll know why Franson can more than reasonably fetch a 1st rounder.

 

[Redleaf]

Still think a 1st for Franson is a pipe dream

You're either greatly overvaluing 1st rounders and/or undervaluing Franson.  Trade value is about supply and demand.  Franson has 94 points since 2012.  That's 4 more than Doughty, 2 less than Green, and only 9 less than Suter.  He's big, he's only 27, he's a right-handed shot, he plays a lot of minutes, he excels on the power play, he's durable, and he's top 20 in defensemen scoring.  He's been 11th, 20th and 9th in PP scoring in defensemen the past 3 seasons including this one, and he's a UFA after this season.

Please let us know the long list of defensemen available via trade to Cup-aspiring teams at the trade deadline that have anything comparable to that kind of resume.  When you fail to do that, and when you recognize the number of teams looking to improve their playoff prospects, you'll know why Franson can more than reasonably fetch a 1st rounder.

Now there's the shrimp from your avatar! 

 

[Beowulf]

Could Anaheim also be a good trade destination for Franson? Their PP is middle of the pack and besides Vatanen they don't have a great RH shot (Fowler, Lindholm, Beauchemin all LH). I'm haven't really seen Anaheim play much so I'm just going by on paper here but Franson could fit well on PP2 potentially.

Tampa could also potentially be a good fit for similar reasons.

 

[wnc096]

Could Anaheim also be a good trade destination for Franson? Their PP is middle of the pack and besides Vatanen they don't have a great RH shot (Fowler, Lindholm, Beauchemin all LH). I'm haven't really seen Anaheim play much so I'm just going by on paper here but Franson could fit well on PP2 potentially.

Tampa could also potentially be a good fit for similar reasons.

Tampa and Anaheim were the two teams I could see Franson go to.  Both have a lot of young players....Tampa has 2 1st round picks this year.  Could be only way you get a 1st for Franson

 

[Madferret]

Two things I think everyone is overlooking too much with Franson:
a) he's pending UFA looking for a significant pay increase on a long term deal
b) defensively speaking he has been a big part of a blue-line in Toronto that has been a disaster 

I'll ask you guys this - would you be ok with Nonis giving up a 1st round pick for 2 months plus of Franson? 

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Two things I think everyone is overlooking too much with Franson:
a) he's pending UFA looking for a significant pay increase on a long term deal
b) defensively speaking he has been a big part of a blue-line in Toronto that has been a disaster 

I'll ask you guys this - would you be ok with Nonis giving up a 1st round pick for 2 months plus of Franson? 

Come on, that's not a fair question for a Leafs fan to answer. We're not a potential Stanley Cup contender who thinks they might be an offensive RH defenceman away from winning it all.

The last two Franson-type defencemen (top offensive guy on an expiring contract) that I can find that were traded at the deadline were Kaberle in 2011 and Brian Campbell in 2008. Kaberle brought back a 1st and Joe Colborne, Campbell brought back a 1st and Steve Bernier. Colborne as we all know was a 21-year old former 1st round pick forward with potential. Bernier was a former 1st round pick but by the time of the trade it was apparent he wasn't going to reach his full potential but he was still a young, contributing bottom-6 player. The fact that there's only two examples of top offensive defencemen being traded at the deadline in 6 years should show how valuable they are since they don't become available often.

The fact that they're asking for a 1st rounder and a prospect shouldn't be too surprising. And considering teams constantly overpay for talent at the deadline it won't be too surprising if they get it or close to it either.

 

[Boston Leaf]

Two things I think everyone is overlooking too much with Franson:
a) he's pending UFA looking for a significant pay increase on a long term deal
b) defensively speaking he has been a big part of a blue-line in Toronto that has been a disaster 

I'll ask you guys this - would you be ok with Nonis giving up a 1st round pick for 2 months plus of Franson?

Nope not at all. But if they can get some sucker team to bite then wonderful

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

Two things I think everyone is overlooking too much with Franson:
a) he's pending UFA looking for a significant pay increase on a long term deal
b) defensively speaking he has been a big part of a blue-line in Toronto that has been a disaster

a) Nobody's overlooking that at all.  His biggest appeal is as a rental, and playoff rentals fetch good deadline returns every year.  A team trading for him may or may not be interested in signing him beyond this season.  His UFA status isn't remotely a trade deterrent.
b) As should be clear to you, everybody recognizes that Franson's value is primarily as an offensive defenseman and PP specialist.  There are multiple playoff bound that have below average power plays.  And, face it, all trade deadline sellers are mediocre to bad teams, and a great many of them, if not most of them, have defensive issues.  I don't think that's ever put too much of a damper on deadline values.

I'll ask you guys this - would you be ok with Nonis giving up a 1st round pick for 2 months plus of Franson?

Well, first of all, how about we actually phrase the question properly:  "If Toronto were a playoff team with legitimate aspirations, would you be ok with Nonis giving up a late 1st round pick for 2 months plus of Franson, if he shored up your blueline and filled a need?"  For me, I don't know, maybe.  But even then, it isn't really a question of whether the fans would be okay with it, it's whether an NHL GM would be okay with it.  And we've seen many times that plenty of GMs would be more than okay with paying that kind of price.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

The fact that there's only two examples of top offensive defencemen being traded at the deadline in 6 years should show how valuable they are since they don't become available often.

Well put, that says as much as anything.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

Two things I think everyone is overlooking too much with Franson:
a) he's pending UFA looking for a significant pay increase on a long term deal
b) defensively speaking he has been a big part of a blue-line in Toronto that has been a disaster 

I'll ask you guys this - would you be ok with Nonis giving up a 1st round pick for 2 months plus of Franson?

If we were 1 piece away from a deep Cup run? Sure. It'd be a late 1st, likely 25-30. If the PP were an issue he'd be a great addition. Cup teams usually have enough pieces in the now (or prospects in the pipeline) that a low 1st isn't that big of a loss vs. the window of the current roster winning a Cup (something the current Leafs don't have, but something the hypothetical version would).

As to to b), it's not as if Erik Karlsson is playing Norris quality defence by comparison, yet he's incredibly valuable. Franson isn't Karlsson offensively but he's one of the better offensive defencemen in the league over the past few years. That's a fact.

MTL, BOS, WPG, TBAY, NSH, DAL are all teams that could use a boost  to their PP.

Franson provides that with 15 PP pts this year (2 less than Karlsson).

It may not happen but it's completely within the realm of what should be reasonably expected.

 

[Madferret]

I suppose we'll find out soon enough what Franson's worth is on the trade market....I'd like to point out that there were only 3 1st round picks traded the whole of last season (from the start of 2013/14 season up until the deadline): one in the Marty St. Louis deal / one in the Vanek deal / one in the Miller deal. With respect those 3 players are in a bit of different league skill wise than Cody Franson.

Also - comparing Franson to Karlsson