Opening Forward Lines

[freer]

Not likely to change much while we're winning, but that first line is just too dangerous for us in the long run (see last three years).

In the ideal world, based on who we have:
Lupul - Kadri - Kessel
Kessel automatically makes any line he plays on a transition offense line. Match these guys up against softer secondary/tertiary lines and watch the points pile up. Kadri's bought into team checking play, so that can hopefully even out the possession decline in Kessel's current game.

Winnik - Bozak - Santorelli
With Kadri, Winnik and Santorelli are shutting down top opposition lines. They can do moreorless the same with Bozak.

JvR - Holland - Komarov
Big and fast, with a scoring touch. What's not to like?

Booth - Carrick - Panik
Fast and tenacious. There is quite a bit of finishing skill on this line that hasn't been fully realized.

Clarkson
It's never going to happen due to his contract, but Clarkson is a turnover machine, which is the opposite of possession play. To be fair, he is not voluntarily turning pucks over like an idiot; he just can't pass or receive passes.

I hate to beat on Clarkson still because he is fitting in better that last year but I find his skill level and hockey sense is below all 3 players on the Leafs 4th line (Booth, Smith and Panik).  I would even keep the lines the same when Komarov comes back and sit Clarkson (if possible):

JVR / Bozak / Kessel
Winnik / Kadri / Santorelli
Lupul / Holland / Komarov
Booth / Smith / Panik

As much as anyone wants to bitch about Clarkson. He is going to be in the lineup whether we want it or not. BTW he has more points then your whole 4th line.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Not likely to change much while we're winning, but that first line is just too dangerous for us in the long run (see last three years).

In the ideal world, based on who we have:
Lupul - Kadri - Kessel
Kessel automatically makes any line he plays on a transition offense line. Match these guys up against softer secondary/tertiary lines and watch the points pile up. Kadri's bought into team checking play, so that can hopefully even out the possession decline in Kessel's current game.

Winnik - Bozak - Santorelli
With Kadri, Winnik and Santorelli are shutting down top opposition lines. They can do moreorless the same with Bozak.

JvR - Holland - Komarov
Big and fast, with a scoring touch. What's not to like?

Booth - Carrick - Panik
Fast and tenacious. There is quite a bit of finishing skill on this line that hasn't been fully realized.

Clarkson
It's never going to happen due to his contract, but Clarkson is a turnover machine, which is the opposite of possession play. To be fair, he is not voluntarily turning pucks over like an idiot; he just can't pass or receive passes.

I hate to beat on Clarkson still because he is fitting in better that last year but I find his skill level and hockey sense is below all 3 players on the Leafs 4th line (Booth, Smith and Panik).  I would even keep the lines the same when Komarov comes back and sit Clarkson (if possible):

JVR / Bozak / Kessel
Winnik / Kadri / Santorelli
Lupul / Holland / Komarov
Booth / Smith / Panik

As much as anyone wants to witch about Clarkson. He is going to be in the lineup whether we want it or not. BTW he has more points then your whole 4th line.

Actually Booth/Smith/Panik have 11 points total, and Clarkson has 11 points total.

 

[Andy007]

Not likely to change much while we're winning, but that first line is just too dangerous for us in the long run (see last three years).

In the ideal world, based on who we have:
Lupul - Kadri - Kessel
Kessel automatically makes any line he plays on a transition offense line. Match these guys up against softer secondary/tertiary lines and watch the points pile up. Kadri's bought into team checking play, so that can hopefully even out the possession decline in Kessel's current game.

Winnik - Bozak - Santorelli
With Kadri, Winnik and Santorelli are shutting down top opposition lines. They can do moreorless the same with Bozak.

JvR - Holland - Komarov
Big and fast, with a scoring touch. What's not to like?

Booth - Carrick - Panik
Fast and tenacious. There is quite a bit of finishing skill on this line that hasn't been fully realized.

Clarkson
It's never going to happen due to his contract, but Clarkson is a turnover machine, which is the opposite of possession play. To be fair, he is not voluntarily turning pucks over like an idiot; he just can't pass or receive passes.

I hate to beat on Clarkson still because he is fitting in better that last year but I find his skill level and hockey sense is below all 3 players on the Leafs 4th line (Booth, Smith and Panik).  I would even keep the lines the same when Komarov comes back and sit Clarkson (if possible):

JVR / Bozak / Kessel
Winnik / Kadri / Santorelli
Lupul / Holland / Komarov
Booth / Smith / Panik

As much as anyone wants to witch about Clarkson. He is going to be in the lineup whether we want it or not. BTW he has more points then your whole 4th line.

Actually Booth/Smith/Panik have 11 points total, and Clarkson has 11 points total.

And that's with Clarkson getting significantly more ice time, playing with superior linemates and getting regular power play minutes.

 

[Bullfrog]

As much as anyone wants to witch about Clarkson. He is going to be in the lineup whether we want it or not. BTW he has more points then your whole 4th line.

I'm OK with him staying in the lineup, but, he has to get off the powerplay.

 

[bustaheims]

And that's with Clarkson getting significantly more ice time, playing with superior linemates and getting regular power play minutes.

Yeah. He only has about 20 minutes less ice time on his own than those 3 do combined.

 

[Britishbulldog]

And that's with Clarkson getting significantly more ice time, playing with superior linemates and getting regular power play minutes.

Yeah. He only has about 20 minutes less ice time on his own than those 3 do combined.

It almost appeared to me that Freer is trying to insinuate that Booth and the rest of the 4th line has played the same number of minutes as Clarkson and are inferior players because they haven't scored as many points....but that seemed odd.  I don't know off hand where to see how many minutes Booth has played this regular season compared to Clarkson....or even the line mates each guy had but I can't see it being close.

 

[freer]

And that's with Clarkson getting significantly more ice time, playing with superior linemates and getting regular power play minutes.

Yeah. He only has about 20 minutes less ice time on his own than those 3 do combined.

It almost appeared to me that Freer is trying to insinuate that Booth and the rest of the 4th line has played the same number of minutes as Clarkson and are inferior players because they haven't scored as many points....but that seemed odd.  I don't know off hand where to see how many minutes Booth has played this regular season compared to Clarkson....or even the line mates each guy had but I can't see it being close.

No I am not trying to insinuate anything. Clarkson line has playing excellent. Unfortunately his contract is ridiculois. He will never be a 30 again but he is on pace for 16-20. BTW I don't think Booth is anything other then a 4th line player. Panik is the only one on that line that has impressed me offensively, but is defensive is lacking.

 

[bustaheims]

It almost appeared to me that Freer is trying to insinuate that Booth and the rest of the 4th line has played the same number of minutes as Clarkson and are inferior players because they haven't scored as many points....but that seemed odd.  I don't know off hand where to see how many minutes Booth has played this regular season compared to Clarkson....or even the line mates each guy had but I can't see it being close.

NHL.com has the ice time numbers. Linemates can be found at Dobber Hockey.

So far this season, Clarkson has 461:40 in TOI, including 67:00 on the PP. Panik has 239:53 (2:05 on the PP), Smith has 144:11 (1:07 PP) and Booth has 93:43 (0:09 PP). Of the 4, only Smith has significant PK time (20:33, compared to a total 2:23 for the other 3). So, in terms of ES+PP TOI, Clarkson has basically the same about of ice time as the other 3 combined.

 

[herman]

Young Bozak @b1rky
5v5 CF% by line since the Nashville game:

 

[bustaheims]

One slightly below average line, 2 that are playing at roughly the same level the Leafs did last season, and one that is this season's Sabres bad.

 

[herman]

Small sample size (12 games), but it matches what my eyeballs saw. Granted we faced some possession dominant teams lately (Detroit, LA) and on back-to-back circumstances.

Most of the team has stopped playing tight on the neutral zone gaps.

Holland's line is getting overmatched lately going up against the opposing 2nd lines. To a certain extent, Kadri's line is overmatched in the defensive zone as well, but hold it so well in the offensive zone that it's not as much of an issue.

 

[pmrules]

Young Bozak @b1rky
5v5 CF% by line since the Nashville game:

For context - What are the goals for and goals against for the same period?  Would be great to see those side by side for comparisons...

 

[CarltonTheBear]

For context - What are the goals for and goals against for the same period?  Would be great to see those side by side for comparisons...

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Kessel's tied for 11th in even strength points by forwards, Santorelli is tied for 18th, Kadri tied for 33rd.

Maybe that should be a line?

 

[pmrules]

For context - What are the goals for and goals against for the same period?  Would be great to see those side by side for comparisons...

Thanks Carlton - Very helpful!

So what can we decipher...The Bozak line is holding their own 5 on 5 from a results perspective.  It's not great but not as bad as their Corsi would lead you to believe.  I also believe, as other have suggested, that the impact of them being a rush line and not a forecheck hard/cycle line  severely hurts their corsi for events, as they are usually one shot and done when playing 5 on 5.

Smith and Panik have been on the ice for 70+ Corsi events without a goal against - impressive.  Granted, these are likely against other teams 3rd/4th lines.

Kadri line - quite impressive.

 

[bustaheims]

Thanks Carlton - Very helpful!

So what can we decipher...The Bozak line is holding their own 5 on 5 from a results perspective.  It's not great but not as bad as their Corsi would lead you to believe.  I also believe, as other have suggested, that the impact of them being a rush line and not a forecheck hard/cycle line  severely hurts their corsi for events, as they are usually one shot and done when playing 5 on 5.

Smith and Panik have been on the ice for 70+ Corsi events without a goal against - impressive.  Granted, these are likely against other teams 3rd/4th lines.

Kadri line - quite impressive.

The problem is those GF% rates are unsustainable with their current CF% (other than the top line, they're all unsustainable even with realistic improvements to CF%, really). Over time, those GF% rates will fall much closer in line to the CF% rates. There's likely not enough time left in the season to bring them down all the way, but, those numbers still will drop significantly, due to a combination of more goals against and less for. The key is to try to mitigate that, and, really, the only way to do that is to increase possession rates on a team wide scale. The whole "1 and done" stuff has to stop. It's not conducive to long-term success.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

The Leafs practiced with their scrambled lines from last night:

Lupul-Bozak-Kessel
JVR-Kadri-Santorelli
Winnik-Holland-Clarkson
Booth-Smith-Panik

Poor Holland. Winnik's a good possession player and all but doesn't have much in terms of hands/shot. He'd be better off with both the 4th lines wingers.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Bozak-Kessel, someone please kill it.  Take it out back.

 

[bustaheims]

Bozak-Kessel, someone please kill it.  Take it out back.

The Leafs coaches just can't get away from it.

 

[mr grieves]

Bozak-Kessel, someone please kill it.  Take it out back.

The Leafs coaches just can't get away from it.

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Draglikepull ‏@draglikepull  6h6 hours ago
Kessel taken off Bozak line: Corsi goes up. JVR taken off Bozak line: Corsi goes up. Lupul put on Bozak line: Corsi goes down. Hmmmmmmmmmmm.