R1, G4: sens vs. Maple Leafs - Apr. 26th, 7:00pm - SN, TSN 1050

[bustaheims]

This stat is ridiculous, but being up 3-0 and losing one is not the end of the world.

The people freaking out are massively over-reacting. Teams up 3-0 lose the 4th game a lot. Just looking at the last couple years:

2024: 5 teams went up 3-0, 3 lost game 4
2023: 2 teams went up 3-0, both lost game 4

Basically, sweeps are hard. Getting the 4th win in any series is the most difficult. Teams at risk of elimination really throw everything they have at you to extend their seasons.

Also, since 2015, only 2 teams that won the Cup swept any series that year.

 

[Bill_Berg]

It's not logic that dictates people's incessant talk of blowing a 3-0, it's unreasonable fear and doubt brought on by historic trauma. I bet on the series going Leafs win first three, lose game 4, then win game 5, and when they lost game 4, which is exactly what I happily predicted a week ago, I felt like barfing.

 

[azzurri63]

Leafs need to come out and take control from the get go. Far too often we seem to be sitting back and other team carrying the play. They didn't deserve the loss the other day in my opinion but play the way you did in the last 2 periods right from opening faceoff and unless Ullmark stands on his head this series is over.

 

[cabber24]

It's not logic that dictates people's incessant talk of blowing a 3-0, it's unreasonable fear and doubt brought on by historic trauma. I bet on the series going Leafs win first three, lose game 4, then win game 5, and when they lost game 4, which is exactly what I happily predicted a week ago, I felt like barfing.

The trauma is real. I am a fan but really haven't enjoyed watching the last few seasons. I just always expect the worst, always! Up 4-1 in game seven, yup, we're going to lose. MTL/CLB OMG the trauma.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

Leafs Fans: Shaking & Crying Since 1967.

 

[Ozzie]

Im not concerned even for 1 minute about the loss in G4 related to blowing the series. Whether its a Gentleman's Sweep or a Sweep....it's all good. And Leafs are playing very good....even G4 they played good.

But the chance of 13 coin flips going heads 12 times is 0.1587%..... thats a fraction of 1%.

A miniscule probability showing the incredible feat the Core4 have accomplished in their body of work over 13 deciding games!!! This shows their true heart felt compassion for their opponent's well being. Instead of crushing their opponents necks for the decided victory...they politely let them win.

"Toronto the Good"!

 

[L K]

The numbers look a little better if we expand things out to elimination games:

2017 - Washington goes up 3-2 - Leafs lose Game 6 - 0-1
2018 - Boston goes up 3-1 - Leafs bring it to Game 7 - 2-1
2019 - Toronto goes up 3-1 - Boston win in 7 - 0-2
2020 - Columbus goes up 2-1 - Columbus wins in 5 - 1-1
2021 - Toronto goes up 3-1 - Montreal wins in 7 - 0-3
2022 - Toronto goes up 3-2 - Tampa wins in 7 - 0-2
2023 - Toronto goes up 3-1 - Leafs win in 6...Florida goes up 3-0 - Leafs lose in 5. 2-2
2024 - Boston goes up 3-0 - Leafs bring it to Game 7 - 2-1
2025 - Toronto goes up 3-0 - Ottawa wins game 5 - 0-1

7-14 record in series deciding games.

Overall record in Games in the playoffs

Game 1 - 3-7
Game 2 - 6-4
Game 3 - 7-3
Game 4 - 4-6
Game 5 - 5-5
Game 6 - 3-6
Game 7 - 0-5

 

[herman]

Leafs Fans: Shaking & Crying Since 1967.

There's a bit of throwing up too.

 

[L K]

I was just going back to look at how often teams sweep and there were a few more sweeps than I remember in the last few years.

2019 has to be the best thought

M2 Islanders sweep the M3 Penguins. WC1 Carolina sweeps the M2 Islanders. A2 Boston sweeps WC1 Carolina.

Islanders go 4-4 in the postseason
Carolina goes 8-7 in the postseason
Boston goes 15-9 losing to St. Louis in the Cup Finals

 

[Deebo]

I was just going back to look at how often teams sweep and there were a few more sweeps than I remember in the last few years.

2019 has to be the best thought

M2 Islanders sweep the M3 Penguins. WC1 Carolina sweeps the M2 Islanders. A2 Boston sweeps WC1 Carolina.

Islanders go 4-4 in the postseason
Carolina goes 8-7 in the postseason
Boston goes 15-9 losing to St. Louis in the Cup Finals

Statistics | NHL Series Sweeps

 

[bustaheims]

I was just going back to look at how often teams sweep and there were a few more sweeps than I remember in the last few years.

2019 has to be the best thought

M2 Islanders sweep the M3 Penguins. WC1 Carolina sweeps the M2 Islanders. A2 Boston sweeps WC1 Carolina.

Islanders go 4-4 in the postseason
Carolina goes 8-7 in the postseason
Boston goes 15-9 losing to St. Louis in the Cup Finals

I found a surprising number of teams with sweeps that lost in the finals in the last 10 years. I think I counted 6