Ranking Prospects 2024-25

[herman]

PPP: 25. Hudson Malinoski
Hudson Malinoski has the distinct honour of being the player Easton Cowan almost accidently ended the career of at last year's development camp when Cowans stick clipped Malinoski in the side of his head.
https://x.com/itsmitchmarney/status/1680054575187804160

This is coming a few years after another life/career-threatening injury in 2017. He's behind the development curve relative to age for that reason, but most of the tools seem to be there: size, skill, a heavy and deceptive shot. Still needs to fill out in terms of strength and get his skating sorted out so he can make more consistent use of his other assets.

All centres (and RD) in the pipeline get a bit of a boost in my minimally-informed rankings.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

This is coming a few years after another life/career-threatening injury in 2017. He's behind the development curve relative to age for that reason, but most of the tools seem to be there: size, skill, a heavy and deceptive shot. Still needs to fill out in terms of strength and get his skating sorted out so he can make more consistent use of his other assets.

Malinoski sounded like a really intriguing draft pick a year ago but a pretty ho-hum rookie season in the NCAA took a lot of wind out of those sails. He's in a tough spot with Providence College though as they don't exactly appear to be super good. His 18 points in 35 games last season was still good enough for 4th on the team, with the top-3 scorers recording just 24-21-20 points themselves (again in 35 games). Two of those players ahead of him were seniors so they won't be returning this upcoming season*. I can't pretend to be a college hockey recruiting expert but Providence isn't exactly powerhouse team so I'm assuming much help isn't coming right away. He'll likely be leaned on a ton and not have much support going forward.

* minor point but at least one of them is actually confirmed to be returning since because of Covid players got an extra year of NCAA eligibility

 

[herman]

Malinoski sounded like a really intriguing draft pick a year ago but a pretty ho-hum rookie season in the NCAA took a lot of wind out of those sails. He's in a tough spot with Providence College though as they don't exactly appear to be super good. His 18 points in 35 games last season was still good enough for 4th on the team, with the top-3 scorers recording just 24-21-20 points themselves (again in 35 games). Two of those players ahead of him were seniors so they won't be returning this upcoming season*. I can't pretend to be a college hockey recruiting expert but Providence isn't exactly powerhouse team so I'm assuming much help isn't coming right away. He'll likely be leaned on a ton and not have much support going forward.

* minor point but at least one of them is actually confirmed to be returning since because of Covid players got an extra year of NCAA eligibility

I was trying to find video of his off puck game and his reported skating issues, which is near impossible by YouTube alone since highlight packs just favour scoring plays. He's got that crutch glide that Alex Galchenyuk leaned on (wide stance A-frame) when handling the puck in motion. He's not outright immobile and relatively smooth in movement so that implies more of a strength issue than full mechanical re-work, but improvements are needed to consistently build separation. The positive is that he likes to attack in motion.

His standout feature are his pretty nasty hands and a penchant for poaching at the net front -- like a raw JvR who grew up watching and emulating Auston Matthews' shot.

He also has basically one goal celebration.

 

[bustaheims]

It's also hard to get much info from NCAA stats, as there is a huge discrepancy in team quality. Obviously, true standout guys will produce well, but guys who might profile well in the middle or lower in the lineup often struggle to produce at less prominent schools.

There is the question as to why they ended up in less highly regarded programs, but, there's a lot of on and off ice factors that play into those decisions that it's not really worth reading into them. Could be anything from wanting to be closer to home/family/friends/partners, being a late bloomer, academic reasons, etc.

FWIW, Providence College has produced a good number of NHLers - no real all stars, but a number who had very solid careers as solid contributors, including some former Leafs: https://www.collegehockeynews.com/reports/team-nhl/Providence/46

 

[L K]

I know August is usually the dead zone for hockey talk but I'm surprised there haven't been any sort of rumblings around something with Robertson.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

How much value do we feel Robertson carries? With 14 goals last season, his first as a sort of regular, you have to think there'd be some tire kickers out there.

 

[cabber24]

I don't want the team to trade Robertson. I want a team that ices three lines that can legitimately score. We have the personnel. If the Leafs cannot figure that out it will be a rerun of the last 9 years. The bottom six have been unnecessarily unproductive. Marner, Matthews, and Nylander on three different lines.

Here are the cores of my first three lines:

Matthews-Domi
Tavares-Nylander
Kampf-Marner

Top 9 Wingers for the above: Knies, Robertson, McCann, Jankrok

 

[herman]

PPP: 24. Vyacheslav Peksa

TLN: 20. Vyacheslav Peksa

Starting to see some separation between the two Russian goaltenders drafted in back to back years. Peksa was our last pick in 2021, in the 6th round and I don't think I was alone in mentally lumping him and Akhtyamov together. Peksa came over to NA earlier and had a full/truncated season with the Growlers in a 3-man platoon but did not fare quite so well given he was adjusting to a whole new culture, a new rink size, and only previously played up to VHL level.

Playstyle-wise, the main difference between the two seems to be Peksa leans heavily into athleticism, based on what I've been able to find in reports. He's a reactionary goalie at this point, but experience and adjustments to the NHL style of play should help him find a happy balance. Can't say I've seen him in much other than the highlights going the wrong way!

Any Growlers' viewers have a better read?

 

[herman]

TLN: 19. Nick Abruzzese

We aren't going to see him in the PPP rankings due to aging out; TLN goes by Calder eligibility for their summer ranking. He's in the Adam Brooks mold of AHL tweener: cerebral, slight of frame, some skills to work with, and basically a structural glue guy on the ice to help chain plays together. Would probably show up better in the stats sheets if the Marlies had more legit triggermen (hmm, Nylander). He has quite a decent shot of his own, but doesn't have the strength and speed to create his own separation consistently to use it as much as he'd like.

TLN: 18. Ty Voit
I still pencil him in, mentally, as Marner-lite, but a centre. His professional career has been waylaid by injury so far, and he's smol in stature to begin with, without the speed and thickness of similarly heighted Leaf prospects like Moore/Robertson. Undeniable skill and creativity with the puck, but will need significant heavy support on the wings (or up the middle if he's moved to RW). High ceiling, but low, low floor here.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

TLN: 18. Ty Voit
I still pencil him in, mentally, as Marner-lite, but a centre. His professional career has been waylaid by injury so far, and he's smol in stature to begin with, without the speed and thickness of similarly heighted Leaf prospects like Moore/Robertson. Undeniable skill and creativity with the puck, but will need significant heavy support on the wings (or up the middle if he's moved to RW). High ceiling, but low, low floor here.

By the looks of it he played wing in his final OHL season, in any scrimmages/rookie tournaments with the Leafs, and during his brief time in the ECHL this past season. So I think it's pretty safe to pencil him in as a winger wherever his career goes from this point.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

How much value do we feel Robertson carries? With 14 goals last season, his first as a sort of regular, you have to think there'd be some tire kickers out there.

Teams have surely kicked the tires here but I'd imagine the bigger hold up is Treliving not feeling like trading him, even if a request has been made.

Really Robertson just needs to sign a deal and show up at camp ready to earn a job with Berube. If that doesn't happen he could end up getting his chance to go to a new team through waivers ultimately.

 

[herman]

Teams have surely kicked the tires here but I'd imagine the bigger hold up is Treliving not feeling like trading him, even if a request has been made.

Treliving has said more about retaining Robertson than he has about Marner, if that's any indication.
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2024/07/02/brad-treliving-on-his-changes-to-the-maple-leafs-defense-in-free-agency/

"As far as Nick is concerned, he is an excellent young player. I am not going to get into play-by-plays. I haven?t seen the reports. I have certainly known that there was some frustration with Nick on his behalf, but we look at Nick as an excellent player. There is great opportunity for Nick here. We need him to be a good player for us."

vs

"No update on Mitch. I appreciate the question. As I said the other day, I am not going to do play-by-play. Mitch is a great player. We are lucky to have him.

I know there is a lot going on?a lot of noise around it?but today, we are focused on free agency. I appreciate the question, but I think Craig alluded to it in his last press availability. He is excited to coach him. We move forward.

We are not going to address it. There is no update there. Mitch is training, preparing, and getting ready for the season."

 

[Andy007]

Well I'm not sure how that would indicate anything, really. One is signed for this season, the other isn't. Current RFA vs an impending UFA next season; not really in the same boat.

 

[herman]

Well I'm not sure how that would indicate anything, really. One is signed for this season, the other isn't. Current RFA vs an impending UFA next season; not really in the same boat.

When the GM gives a more tepid response about retaining a core player that is a pending UFA than a disgruntled RFA who went public with his frustration, that says something to me. It?s all about where the response lies on the spectrum of possible reactions and how many standard deviations it is away from the expected one.

For reference, this is how Treliving talked about previous key players he wanted to extend (but couldn?t):
https://x.com/fan960steinberg/status/1545068846603706368

I think both start the season on the team. Robertson because he doesn?t have much choice; Marner because the Leafs don?t have much choice.

 

[herman]

PPP: 23. Timofei Obvintsev
The newest goaltending prospect is like Peksa, but leans even harder into the 'see puck, get puck' style of goalering. Drafted as an overager.

TLN: 17. Miroslav Holinka
Thanks to his dev camp showing, he has quickly become the next hot topic from down the draft ticket. Aside from the fact he is one of the rare right-handed centres* the Leafs have drafted, his teams have been deploying him as a two-way pivot. I've been eyeballing RC options from the first couple of rounds for the last 2 draft years, so I think he's a nice addition already just from a profile perspective.

He'll be playing this season in the WHL, which should be beneficial for developing a broader asset base, rather than riding pine with the Czech mens league getting kid minutes.

* Holinka's actually left hand dominant like Patrice Bergeron, and unlike the Nylanders and Nathan MacKinnon (and me), which should mean he'll lean towards quicker puck handling vs an extra-heavy shot.

 

[herman]

[youtube]1HZWCgKURy0[/youtube]
It's fun that these are available. Check out the 2-on-1 Danford had to play at around 6:18

It's just one game, but I can sort of see why Danford's point totals, even though he spends most of his ice time with L1, are so low. Oshawa doesn't really use the low-high play, and they only very rarely pinch the defenders along the boards, preferring to cycle low with the forwards only. Danford is otherwise quite intuitive with his positioning, identifies open attackers quickly, and has pretty good mobility/agility in all four directions to get stick on puck. He's the defensive conscience on his D-pair and very rarely makes risky plays. Oshawa takes pretty silly long shifts in this game, but since they're not really using their defenders on the attack, Danford can just sort of coast like a safety.

 

[herman]

PPP: 22. Victor Johansson
Johannson suffered a spleen injury when he was 14, and then a broken hand at 15, which set his development and physical growth back significantly. His older brothers are prospects in the Minnesota (Simon) and Detroit (Anton) systems, and his father played high level professional hockey, so there's plenty to work with. He is very raw and behind the curve relative to age, but there is a frame and a background in the game to build off of. If Thommie Bergman is deeply involved in a Leafs pick, I feel pretty good about it.

TLN: 16. William Villeneueve
Who doesn't like RD with size, skating, and offensive flair? So it's a bit concerning to me that we don't hear nearly as much about Villeneuve as we probably should considering his profile supposedly aligns with the Leafs' significant needs. Coupled with the significant attention focused on the defense pipeline this offseason, Villeneuve is going to face a lot of competition for ice time (especially if Hakanpaa is actually signed and pushes both of Philippe Myers and Nicolas Mattinen down to the AHL).

 

[herman]

[youtube]-wlHFdNNK2k[/youtube]
Oh yes.

 

[herman]

PPP: 21. William Villeneuve
Villeneuve was #16 last T25U25 and a lot of players from the top of the rankings cleared out, so dropping even further after that is a big oof. He has offensive tools to use, but if he can't meet the minimum requirements on the defensive side, then those tools will not get used. I think it would do him good to go the Mattinen route, i.e. school + play at that level to build up size + take reps in a top-4 against appropriate competition.

TLN: 15. Jacob Quillan
Woohoo centres! Having NHL size and a playstyle/experience in bottom-6 deployment is a fast track to potential NHL minutes. Where it was harder to envision Steeves or Ellis in the bottom of the Leafs lineup (where there were needs and openings), Quillan could get looks later this season should any of the depth forwards falter or sustain an injury.

 

[herman]

PPP: 20. Semyon Der-Arguchintsev
Not that these rankings truly matter (and obscures perception by forcing things into a linear 1 > 2 relationship that is more nuanced than that; i.e. prospect tiers, positional needs, etc.), but getting outvoted by a guy who is for all intents and purposes outside of the organization now while you are an active member must kind of suck (especially if you've been on the list for awhile).

I like SDA! But he has the tweener profile that needs so much to go right to make an NHL roster: slight, shifty, puckhandling wizard with creative passes. So very many, just don't, and even the ones that do have a pretty tough go of it come playoff time. See Johnny Gaudreau, Mitch Marner as maybe the prime examples that made it. The Leafs, under Dubas, made many, many bets on this player profile and currently have nothing to show for it: SDA, Seth Griffith (waivers), Nic Petan (trade), Adam Brooks, Mikhail Abramov, Nick Abruzzese, Ty Voit, Joe Miller. Even the shootier versions like Dmitri Ovchinnikov, Veeti Miettinen, Brandon Lisowsky, Hudson Malinoski are unlikely to hit. Maybe Nick Moldenhauer has an outside chance as he's more of a generalist.

TLN: 14. Mikko Kokkonen
Used as the Marlies' shutdown LD pretty consistently; he continues to be a safe, effective defenseman. NHL playing time will be an uphill battle though given his shorter reach relative to the cheap LD depth available almost any time, and lack of offensive upside. He's going to have to find a way to separate his game from Rifai and Webber.