Ranking Prospects 2024-25

[herman]

I did not plan this, but it's fun to see both of today's prospects get queued up in yesterday's blurbs

PPP: 19. Nick Moldenhauer
Not enough right-shot centres in the system! I doubt Moldenhauer sticks at centre as he moves along the development path (not stout enough to be Brayden Point). His generalist skillset makes him a bit easy to forget about, but I think he can be one of those ever-useful, oft-maligned plug-and-play wingers down the line (Jarnkrok) if he adds some bulk. He has a nose for greasy goals and better hands and vision than some other high floor options (Tverberg).

TLN: 13. Cade Webber
Webber was the first sign of things to come when Treliving punting a late pick to scoop up his signing rights after it was made known he would not be signing with Carolina (reverse Adam Fox?). We can treat him like one of the picks made this past June (6th rounder), but already ready for pro action. He's a huge defensive LD (reverse Adam Fox!) who prides himself in shutting down opponents. How is this different than Mark Hunter's Large Adult Sons? Remains to be seen! but Treliving has a track record for identifying defensively effective, mobile defensemen, regardless of size, so he's kind of coming in at the right time with the NHL roster and prospect pipeline make up.

 

[herman]

PPP. 18. Ty Voit
Unless there's a magical growth spurt of height and muscle weight and shifty speed, Voit tops out well south of the NHL.

TLN: 12. Roni Hirvonen
Smol, not exactly fast and shifty, but very greasy and the wherewithal to go to the slot to get stick on puck. Beset with injuries (big concussion at dev camp last offseason, followed by a high stick to the eye after his return) to start his North American pro career, Hirvonen deserves a bit of patience in his development to see if he can round out his game.

 

[Frank E]

You're doing god's work here herman...I appreciate it.

 

[herman]

You're doing god's work here herman...I appreciate it.

I merely stand on the shoulders of the authors of these blogs that put in the work to watch and report! And I only want to discuss them here with friends, so here they are pooled thank you for your appreciation nonetheless

I will note that TLN's prospect coverage has kicked up a couple of notches this time around and are really good reads.

Kyle Cushman's new podcast/YouTube channel is also really good for deep dives on specific players in the organization.
[youtube]eMAsNwiFkzs[/youtube]

 

[CarltonTheBear]

PPP: 21. William Villeneuve
Villeneuve was #16 last T25U25 and a lot of players from the top of the rankings cleared out, so dropping even further after that is a big oof. He has offensive tools to use, but if he can't meet the minimum requirements on the defensive side, then those tools will not get used. I think it would do him good to go the Mattinen route, i.e. school + play at that level to build up size + take reps in a top-4 against appropriate competition.

I'm not particularly high on Villeneuve really but this ranking is probably the only one to really make me surprised. Having him below SDA and Voit feels a little wild. I think there's a pretty clear seperation between those 2 and him. And then to see 4 of the voters didn't even rank him is even more odd.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I will note that TLN's prospect coverage has kicked up a couple of notches this time around and are really good reads.

I've been very, very, very down on like 99% of non-Jon Steitzer TLN pieces for about a year now. Feel like the quality of that site has dropped like a rock. But to their credit their pieces in this series have been good.

 

[herman]

I will note that TLN's prospect coverage has kicked up a couple of notches this time around and are really good reads.

I've been very, very, very down on like 99% of non-Jon Steitzer TLN pieces for about a year now. Feel like the quality of that site has dropped like a rock. But to their credit their pieces in this series have been good.

Yes, for sure; and maybe the ringers they brought in for this coverage stands a bit taller in contrast (Ellis in particular for me).

 

[herman]

I'm not particularly high on Villeneuve really but this ranking is probably the only one to really make me surprised. Having him below SDA and Voit feels a little wild. I think there's a pretty clear separation between those 2 and him. And then to see 4 of the voters didn't even rank him is even more odd.

The bottom is where linear ranking muddles the nuance the most. They're all most likely to not be NHL relevant, and for some people that just means they aren't going to be given much more thought and evaluation.

I think Villeneuve needs more time for someone growing into his body, developing the timing/reps/experience in higher level hockey; bottom pair AHL minutes isn't really development. We'll see how Mattinen shakes out, but he might be the template to follow. I think Villeneuve has more puck tools at his disposal; Mattinen took the time to figure out his NHL selling points and worked on building those out (mobility, playing the body, shooting quickly), rather than trying to level up all things at once. Defense takes extra time unless you're a forward masquerading on the blueline, and larger bodies seem to also take some additional time for strength to coordinate.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

The bottom is where linear ranking muddles the nuance the most. They're all most likely to not be NHL relevant, and for some people that just means they aren't going to be given much more thought and evaluation.

I think Villeneuve needs more time for someone growing into his body, developing the timing/reps/experience in higher level hockey; bottom pair AHL minutes isn't really development. We'll see how Mattinen shakes out, but he might be the template to follow. I think Villeneuve has more puck tools at his disposal; Mattinen took the time to figure out his NHL selling points and worked on building those out (mobility, playing the body, shooting quickly), rather than trying to level up all things at once. Defense takes extra time unless you're a forward masquerading on the blueline, and larger bodies seem to also take some additional time for strength to coordinate.

Was looking into this a little more because I was a little surprised at the article mentioning that without a big season he could be in danger of not even getting qualified next summer and that's probably not that crazy of a take. The Marlies will have Niemla, Rifai, and Kokkonen returning from last seasons D corps. They've of course added Mermis, Myers, Mattinen, and Webber to that. Villeneuve could conceivably end up behind all those guys on the Marlies' depth chart. That's not to say he won't play because of course he will with how the AHL is but it's a crowded blue line and he'll be in quite the uphill battle to really stand out I guess.

 

[herman]

PPP: 17. Jacob Quillan
I know very little about him, other than being the OT GWG scorer that toppled Matthew Knies' championship bid. He's not the biggest, but has the requisite strength for his size, plays centre, and of particular interest to me, many of his highlights are of putting the puck in transition, attacking off the rush, and scoring ugly goals by getting to the hard ice at the right time; so that's why I had him relatively high up on my (vibes) ranking. We'll see how he does in a full season with the Marlies (under slightly new direction, with Berube helming the NHL team, and Gruden marching to a new beat). I think he's the right profile of player to plug and play into the bottom half of the forward group, and his work rate and strength sets a fairly safe floor. If he has above average forecheckiness, I could also see him as banana #3 on line 2 capitalizing on the space that a talented opposite winger can unlock.

Here's my slightly pie in the sky comp: Carter Verhaeghe

TLN: 11. Nick Moldenhauer
Moldenhauer has been hard for me to pin down in terms of playstyle, but I think I've settled on him being just a [irl=https://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?msg=504681]smart generalist[/url]. Lacking a bit of size but blessed with above average speed, he tends to buzz around for open space in the slot to uncork his wrist shot. It's not the heaviest, but it is accurate and has a quick, deceptive release. He was locked in low on the depth chart in his freshman year at Michigan's top program, but should get a look higher in the lineup this coming season to see if his offense has a growth path. He's on track to clear the bar of Alex Steeves as small, zippy, offenseman, but that doesn't necessarily mean NHL minutes. He was used as a top penalty killer with the Chicago Steel, so if that can be nurtured further, he could hit 3rd line utility winger (a la Jarnkrok).

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://x.com/DariaTuboltseva/status/1824416768443433429

Thought this was a pretty insightful article on Grebyonkin, who could very well be the biggest sleeper among our prospect group.

Talks about playing through an injury during the KHL playoffs and how he's been adjusting to life in Toronto so far (been here for about 2 months now).

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/DariaTuboltseva/status/1824416768443433429

Thanks for sharing! but what's up with a .org site for ResponsibleGambling? and their hockey coverage being mostly about Russian players around the league

 

[herman]

PPP: 16. Ryan Tverberg
I am probably way too high on this guy. When he's on, he's mini wrecking ball that can get on pucks, push play into good ice, and score ugly a bit. Apparently, could stand to be 'on' more often and round out the necessary skills for a bottom-6 role. He has exceeded his draft slot significantly already, but if he wants to make the NHL, he'll have to lean harder into the grind game (just watch Zach Hyman video).

TLN: 10. Alex Steeves
Unsigned RFA at the moment, and basically AAAA level that we got for free; looks like a more offensively inclined Alex Kerfoot but without the defensive base that makes him a shoo-in for bottom 6 duties. The author references Bobby McMann who was in a similar situation of AAAA level offense and opportunity, but has separated himself with defensive capability (arguably the best defensive winger on the Leafs), and just enough simple offense to hit the scoresheets (size and speed also help!).

 

[herman]

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/2024-25-nhl-prospect-pool-breakdown-toronto-maple-leafs-top-10
From Steven Ellis for Daily Faceoff, but has also been contributing to the TLN prospect coverage

10. Roni Hirvonen
9. Nick Moldenhauer
8. Ryan Tverberg
7. Noah Chadwick
6. Dennis Hildeby
5. Ben Danford
4. Nikita Grebenkin
3. Topi Niemela
2. Fraser Minten
1. Easton Cowan

 

[Guilt Trip]

PPP: 16. Ryan Tverberg
I am probably way too high on this guy.

Me too. Like the way he plays. Every game I saw him play he did something impressive. Have high hopes for him.

 

[Bender]

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/2024-25-nhl-prospect-pool-breakdown-toronto-maple-leafs-top-10
From Steven Ellis for Daily Faceoff, but has also been contributing to the TLN prospect coverage

10. Roni Hirvonen
9. Nick Moldenhauer
8. Ryan Tverberg
7. Noah Chadwick
6. Dennis Hildeby
5. Ben Danford
4. Nikita Grebenkin
3. Topi Niemela
2. Fraser Minten
1. Easton Cowan

This prospect list does not inspire a lot of confidence.

 

[herman]

This prospect list does not inspire a lot of confidence.

The way I see it, a prospect pipeline in and of itself is only part of the picture. For the Leafs, they've got the top end of the NHL squad kind of locked up and most of them are prime players: Matthews, Nylander, and however much of Marner is left, and Rielly about start the toboggan. Does this prospect list help fill out areas that aren't easy to acquire via cheap UFA?

For the most part, kind of. I'll throw Knies in there, as he is just getting established. There's a decent skeleton for contention with wise signings and trades, but there is definitely concern about the second tier (particularly at C and D) which is hard to get without upper end first rounders or very lucky depth picks, hence my yammering for drafting/trading for two-way RH centres and mobile D. Easton Cowan and Matthew Knies are really good pulls; I think Rodion Amirov (RIP) would've easily been in that conversation as well.

 

[herman]

PPP: 15. Mikko Kokkonen
Steady Mikky is a stout and reliable technical defender (1LD for the Marlies), but doesn't really have any standout features that might make it hard for him to earn minutes over others with a little more in the toolbox, especially with the Leafs' logjams on the blueline over the years. This year, he is only behind Jake McCabe, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Simon Benoit, Dakota Mermis (not counting Rielly because that's a different role). He will be jockeying for the next call-up with: Marshall Rifai who is a touch older/taller and has better skating and is a pure defense option who will mix it up physically; and Cade Webber who is the new guy that is much larger and also a pure defense option with decent mobility. Skillset-wise, he is capable of NHL time; but his opportunity is going to be dictated by market forces -- his role is in high and ready supply both in the Leafs system and on the open market.

TLN: 9. Artur Akhtyamov
Before Dennis Hildeby was drafted, I was about to hitch my wagon to Akhtyamov as my top goalie Leaf prospect. He is still an interesting prospect but since I don't know diddly squat about goaltending other than it's a very hard position and requires a certain type of personality and physicality, I'm just going by how they look when I can see them (youtube and twitter). We'll get to see Akhtyamov more now that he is in North America, likely in some sort of platoon situation with Vyacheslav Peksa in Cincinnati where they can support one another competitively and culturally. He is a year behind Peksa in North American exposure, but has hit better numbers at higher levels in Russian leagues, probably because he is not a floppsie-woppsie reaction goalie. The only downside appears to be he is a smol guy (at 6'1").

Fun fact: I can spell Artur Akhtyamov (and Vyacheslav Peksa and Timofei Obvintsev and Semyon Der-Arguchintsev) without looking it up, but I can't spell Cincinnati and I keep thinking Hildeby is a Denis, not a Dennis. and I am struggling mightily with Alexander Plesovskikh (copy and paste there), but he might not factor into much writing.

 

[herman]

PPP: 14. Cade Webber
Webber is one of the oldest entrants in the PPP T25U25, and it doesn't look like there's much physical growth left to do, so any improvements will likely come from experience and getting up to AHL/NHL speed. He profiles as the type of player that is in demand, but also in healthy supply. The standout feature, so to speak, is the combination of that length/size and skating mobility.

TLN: 8. Ryan Tverberg
Basic (small) fassthole

Both players have featured previously upthread in one way or another. Both will be Marlies so we should be able to get regular eyeballs on them, even if they don't hit the highlights.

 

[herman]

PPP: 13. Alex Steeves
Newly extended, Steeves is about to break some Marlies records for production. Unlikely to get more than spot duty at the bottom of the lineup, and there are some better call up options now that just need a bit of time. His best chance actually might come if: Nick Robertson does not sign and Easton Cowan is not able to cut it off the hop. Ideally, for the Leafs, Steeves only comes in mid-season when there are a couple of forward injuries.

Good write up of Steeves' signing and production (and potential future) over at MLHS

TLN: 7. Noah Chadwick
A 6th round pick getting World Juniors attention and getting an ELC is no small feat. Chadwick is one of our better defense prospects on the left side as he actually has offensive tools and track record to go with the size and mobility he was originally drafted for (6'4", not thin).