Steve Stamkos?

[ZBBM]

Sorry guys, but I don't believe that for a second.

I think that might have to do with your lack of familiarity with the market. National advertisers up here tend to be bigger on Team Canada stuff than they are individual team stuff(understandably, as being on the Leafs is a divisive thing throughout the country). As a result the guys we tend to see on commercials the most are guys who've played a prominent role with Team Canada like Crosby and Toews.

Stamkos coming back could make him a big deal locally but for bigger national exposure that would probably involve making a big splash internationally and it remains to be seen what avenues Stamkos will have to get there(if the NHL doesn't go to the Olympics and the World Cup isn't a big hit).

Just to use an example, PK Subban would be a natural spokesman. He's very good, charismatic and plays for a big market Canadian team. You don't see a ton of him in market though because A) he's a Hab and B) he doesn't have much in the way of a Team Canada resume.

Keep in mind it's a small country.

Points taken Nik, but my argument is that you are going into unprecedented territory here (assuming they contend).

 

[TBLeafer]

Sorry guys, but I don't believe that for a second.

National contracts aren't going to be impacted by what team he plays for. They're based on the cachet he already carries. But, even then, the money there is relatively limited, due to the size of the Canadian market, and the impact Stamkos can reasonably be expected to have on market share. Using a celebrity to endorse your product is really only effective if that celebrity can be seen as having any authority about said product. For instance, Stamkos is a useful face for Powerade, but, not so much for, say, GM.

Local contracts? Well, being that I spent most of the past decade working in the advertising industry, I can assure you that the money there is not significant. Most local companies have 6 figure advertising budgets - and that has to cover production, buying ad space/ad time, etc. Bigger local companies may have budgets of a couple million, but, that still doesn't provide them with a ton of money to pay out in endorsements.

Also, there's this:

http://sportschatplace.com/nhl-picks/2014/07/28/top-10-athletes-endorsement-earnings-in-the-nhl

Stamkos is already earning a good chunk of money on endorsements (3rd in the NHL, as of July 2014). That number isn't going to be impacted significantly from joining the Leafs.

You know Stamkos can't wait to do a Bad Boy commercial. Come on now.

And who's better than Stamkos to endorse them?


NOOOOOOOOOOOOBODY!

 

[Kin]

Points taken Nik, but my argument is that you are going into unprecedented territory here (assuming they contend).

Well, I think you're making two assumptions there actually. The first is that they contend, the second is that Stamkos rebounds to being considered a superstar. You'll notice that the two guys ahead of him on those lists have multiple Hart trophys and scoring titles(goals or points).

We can obviously debate the likelihood of either but I think it's pretty fair to say an agent wouldn't count on that money until it was actually in front of them.

 

[ZBBM]

Points taken Nik, but my argument is that you are going into unprecedented territory here (assuming they contend).

Well, I think you're making two assumptions there actually. The first is that they contend, the second is that Stamkos rebounds to being considered a superstar. You'll notice that the two guys ahead of him on those lists have multiple Hart trophys and scoring titles(goals or points).

We can obviously debate the likelihood of either but I think it's pretty fair to say an agent wouldn't count on that money until it was actually in front of them.

Agreed.  But I think it's fair to say that any agent would be aware of the potential, and the potential for it to outweigh tax breaks in FLA (remembering too that such endorsement potential goes on AFTER the player's playing career is over ... that longevity surely is higher if Stamkos becomes a Leaf than if he stays in FLA).

 

[TBLeafer]

Points taken Nik, but my argument is that you are going into unprecedented territory here (assuming they contend).

Well, I think you're making two assumptions there actually. The first is that they contend, the second is that Stamkos rebounds to being considered a superstar. You'll notice that the two guys ahead of him on those lists have multiple Hart trophys and scoring titles(goals or points).

We can obviously debate the likelihood of either but I think it's pretty fair to say an agent wouldn't count on that money until it was actually in front of them.

He doesn't need to rebound to being considered a superstar.  That's silly talk.  He IS a superstar in need of a rebound.

 

[Kin]

Agreed.  But I think it's fair to say that any agent would be aware of the potential, and the potential for it to outweigh tax breaks in FLA (remembering too that such endorsement potential goes on AFTER the player's playing career is over ... that longevity surely is higher if Stamkos becomes a Leaf than if he stays in FLA).

See, still, I think you're wildly overestimating the market. In terms of retired players who you ever see doing endorsements in even a vaguely national sense up here you can basically count them on one hand(and really it's just Gretzky, Messier and Orr). The kind of guys who are going to have that reach are pretty much limited to one or two per generation and Crosby's pretty much got that locked up.

I can tell you personally that as a Hockey fan who interacts with a lot of non-hockey fans that the sort of Q rating(or whatever term you might want to use) that hockey players have with casual fans is still super low. Because the actual sports gear market is pretty small(which is where basketball/tennis players and golfers make the vast majority of their endorsement earnings) you're talking about endorsing non-sports related products. Is top 10-15 NHL player Steven Stamkos going to make people buy a lot of chips?

Like busta I have some professional background in this field and I can tell you that while the specific circumstances with regards to Stamkos might not have precedent, the sorts of numbers you're assuming they could lead to are completely outside of my experience with the media landscape.

 

[bustaheims]

With all due respect, I think you are grossly underestimating how much businesses in Canada, and especially in TO/Ont., would want to associate themselves with a superstar hometown Leaf -- especially if the team starts contending.  Past/current practice wouldn't be a good predictor of that.

No, I think you're massively over-estimating it - and the amount of money these business have to spend on advertising/marketing - and current practice is what we have to work with. Until things change, we have to work within the current constructs. And, not only that, things are really trending away from celebrity endorsements, unless that celebrity can be reasonably attached to the product. Stamkos is only an effective spokesperson for hockey related merchandise - which isn't a profitable enough market to through mega-bucks at him for, nor is he the most appealing candidate, regardless of how successful the Leafs may or may not be should he play for them.

The money is not there, no matter how much you want it to be. It really hasn't been much of an influence since NHL players started earning multi-million dollar contracts. The biggest star in the hockey world earns less than $5M in endorsements a year, and he gets major international campaigns and attention. A little more local attention isn't going to move the needle much for Stamkos, unless he's basically endorsing a new product or business every day.

 

[TBLeafer]

Agreed.  But I think it's fair to say that any agent would be aware of the potential, and the potential for it to outweigh tax breaks in FLA (remembering too that such endorsement potential goes on AFTER the player's playing career is over ... that longevity surely is higher if Stamkos becomes a Leaf than if he stays in FLA).

See, still, I think you're wildly overestimating the market. In terms of retired players who you ever see doing endorsements in even a vaguely national sense up here you can basically count them on one hand(and really it's just Gretzky, Messier and Orr). The kind of guys who are going to have that reach are pretty much limited to one or two per generation and Crosby's pretty much got that locked up.

I can tell you personally that as a Hockey fan who interacts with a lot of non-hockey fans that the sort of Q rating(or whatever term you might want to use) that hockey players have with casual fans is still super low. Because the actual sports gear market is pretty small(which is where basketball/tennis players and golfers make the vast majority of their endorsement earnings) you're talking about endorsing non-sports related products. Is top 10-15 NHL player Steven Stamkos going to make people buy a lot of chips?

Like busta I have some professional background in this field and I can tell you that while the specific circumstances with regards to Stamkos might not have precedent, the sorts of numbers you're assuming they could lead to are wildly outside of my experience with this marketplace.

Still, I do imagine he could go all Don Cherry or Wendel Clark with local endorsements.

 

[bustaheims]

Still, I do imagine he could go all Don Cherry or Wendel Clark with local endorsements.

Their earnings from those endorsements aren't as significant as you want them to be.

 

[McGarnagle]

I would doubt any local endorsements would even override just the tax savings from playing in florida.

Speaking of which, I would think the Panthers would be a terrific spot for him to end up, for a number of reasons, some of which are dollar signs. 

 

[Kin]

Still, I do imagine he could go all Don Cherry or Wendel Clark with local endorsements.

As busta points out, there's really not much money in local endorsements. Also, while Cherry is a good inclusion on a list of hockey spokespeople I've seen Clark in maybe a handful of things in the last 25 years.

 

[ZBBM]

Nik, busta I respect your experience but we will have to agree to disagree.  If I were Stamkos' agent, I'd whisper in his ear, "Y'know Steven, you go back home and win a Cup?  You could blow it all, go bankrupt every other year, and you'll still never be poor."

 

[bustaheims]

Nik, busta I respect your experience but we will have to agree to disagree.  If I were Stamkos' agent, I'd whisper in his ear, "Y'know Steven, you go back home and win a Cup?  You could blow it all, go bankrupt every other year, and you'll still never be poor."

Then, you'd be giving your client some pretty awful advice.

 

[Kin]

He doesn't need to rebound to being considered a superstar.  That's silly talk.  He IS a superstar in need of a rebound.

I don't know what the distinction there is. He's 4 years removed from making even a NHL second all-star team, he's never won an Art Ross, Hart or Lindsay, Olympic Gold or a Cup. Obviously "superstar" isn't a definitive term but you would be very pressed to make a case right now that he's a top 10 player in the league. The 11th or 12th best player in the NHL doesn't carry much weight with it among anyone but die-hard hockey fans.

 

[ZBBM]

Nik, busta I respect your experience but we will have to agree to disagree.  If I were Stamkos' agent, I'd whisper in his ear, "Y'know Steven, you go back home and win a Cup?  You could blow it all, go bankrupt every other year, and you'll still never be poor."

Then, you'd be giving your client some pretty awful advice.

Heh.  I doubt it.

 

[Kin]

Nik, busta I respect your experience but we will have to agree to disagree.  If I were Stamkos' agent, I'd whisper in his ear, "Y'know Steven, you go back home and win a Cup?  You could blow it all, go bankrupt every other year, and you'll still never be poor."

You are absolutely free to disagree with me on the media market I've spent my entire life in and a good part of my professional career analyzing if you like, you might very well think that Guy Lafleur and Darryl Sittler are making millions of dollars a year in Labatt's and Tim Horton's commercials if you're so inclined and fair be it but you can't get away from the fact that the advice you'd be giving in that scenario is to turn your back on actual guaranteed money in favour of money that might materialize if things that are largely outside of your client's control come to be.

So, needless to say, you're not going to be my agent any time soon.

 

[bustaheims]

Heh.  I doubt it.

Doubt away. You'll have plenty time to do so, since you'll have no clients.

 

[TBLeafer]

Still, I do imagine he could go all Don Cherry or Wendel Clark with local endorsements.

Their earnings from those endorsements aren't as significant as you want them to be.

Who said anything about how significant they were.  ACTRA union rates are still pretty decent for a retired Wendel Clark.

 

[Kin]

The biggest star in the hockey world earns less than $5M in endorsements a year, and he gets major international campaigns and attention.

And, it should be noted, has done that while playing in Pittsburgh. A relatively small US market. Because it's very much the player and his exposure that matters.

I was reading an article a while back on product endorsements in China and an interesting thing they noted was that until very recently, Kobe Bryant had far more appeal in that market than Lebron James did despite Lebron having surpassed Kobe domestically quite a while ago. The jist of it was that despite the fact that James was now far and away the better player the only thing that resonated in China was the number of championships won. Kobe was seen as a winner, James not so much.

The lists you and Bullfrog posted should serve as a reminder that we're still talking about a very small pie and that Stamkos coming to Toronto probably wouldn't grow that pie by much. In arguing that he would somehow take away from Crosby or Toews' pile you really have to make a case that he would either do so by force of personality(which seems, I think it's fair to say, unlikely) or by supplanting them either as who we think of as the best player in the world or the ultimate winner. We're talking about a long shot on any of those counts of pretty epic proportions.

 

[ZBBM]

Nik, busta I respect your experience but we will have to agree to disagree.  If I were Stamkos' agent, I'd whisper in his ear, "Y'know Steven, you go back home and win a Cup?  You could blow it all, go bankrupt every other year, and you'll still never be poor."

You are absolutely free to disagree with me on the media market I've spent my entire life in and a good part of my professional career analyzing if you like, you might very well think that Guy Lafleur and Darryl Sittler are making millions of dollars a year in Labatt's and Tim Horton's commercials if you're so inclined and fair be it but you can't get away from the fact that the advice you'd be giving in that scenario is to turn your back on actual guaranteed money in favour of money that might materialize if things that are largely outside of your client's control come to be.

So, needless to say, you're not going to be my agent any time soon.

Why in the world would I think such thoughts? he asked innocently.  We're talking about Stamkos, not anybody else.