Steve Stamkos?

[Spider]

Yeah, even "super unrealistic" might be putting it lightly at that number.

I'll admit I am not basing this on anything, but I think management has a much higher number that they are willing to go to with him - somewhere in the area of 10.5.

A week ago I'd have disagreed very much. Since the Andersen deal and what the team did at the draft, I'm far less confident in my read of the front office's continued good judgment.

This. The Shanaplan may not be what we thought it was.  Maybe it's more like the Burkeplan....  :-X

Until this regime trades two firsts and a 2nd, doesn't lottery protect the first and then finishes 2nd last, I'm thinking they're far better than Burke.

And they might've drafted a bunch size-over-skill guys with their later picks. They didn't trade up to do it in the first round.

There's a lot of space between not tanking next season, starting a build-up a bit sooner than some might like & spending some cap space on a high-end talent and what the last regimes did.

Well then, go cheer for the Oilers; since they seem to be doing it the right way...

 

[mr grieves]

Well then, go cheer for the Oilers; since they seem to be doing it the right way...

What did I write to suggest the Leafs are doing anything wrong?

 

[Spider]

Well then, go cheer for the Oilers; since they seem to be doing it the right way...

What did I write to suggest the Leafs are doing anything wrong?

Sorry, not intended directly at you... it's intended at all those that are always negative at what the Toronto management does every season.  There is no right or no wrong way of creating a Cup Contender.  There are 29 teams every season that do it the wrong way and only 1 that does it right.  And it's not the same way every year.  Let's put our trust in this group and hope they're the one's that get in right in the next few seasons.

 

[Kin]

There are most certainly wrong ways to put together a good team.

 

[Spider]

There are most certainly wrong ways to put together a good team.

And I bet a lot more people thought one of those teams was the Pittsburgh Penquins last season... and look what happened!

 

[Kin]

And I bet a lot more people thought one of those teams was the Pittsburgh Penquins last season... and look what happened!

Actually most people really liked what the Penguins did in the off-season. The Kessel trade was generally seen as a big win for them and they had very good odds to win the Cup in Vegas. The slow start was the surprise, not that they ended up good.

For instance, here's the board's season predictions thread:

http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=3394.0

Nobody had the Penguins lower than 4th in the Conference.

 

[Kin]

For instance, here's the board's season predictions thread:

http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=3394.0

Also, while I'm looking at it, shout-out to CtB for getting 15 of 16 playoff teams right. He only missed on the Panthers.

I was right about Nashville tho'

 

[lamajama]

It seems your judgement is one not shared by many, many Leafs fans AND by management now it seems.  So there's that.

Perhaps YOUR judgement is... dare I say it... flawed?

For most of my life when it's been me vs. a majority of Leafs fans and Leafs management my judgment has a pretty good W-L record. I'll lean on that until definitively proven otherwise.

This is meant purely in good humour but

1) I think quite a few Leaf fans, and most non-hockey people would have been better management for the Leafs than our last 3 groups

2) Wasn't there an article a few years back when Nonis was in charge regarding the draft and comparing Nonis to a potato in making that draft's decisions?  The potato scored a pretty big victory. Now, maybe it was another vegetable or a rock or some such but the point was made.

In sum, it has been baffling that so many posters including you Nik that championed, well, common sense but instead seen what should be assumed to be intelligent hockey men make such frankly stupid decisions.

I'm really not sure of how many majority thoughts on this website regarding the Leafs have been or would have been considered flat out wrong but I imagine someone will point out some obvious errors (maybe Clarkson? I don't know as I've had that memory erased permanently....)

This is a very hockey savvy group of here despite 160 pages
of Stamkos...

EDIT I found the article. It was about free agency

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/7/6/4498278/better-free-agency-dave-nonis-potato-terrible-management-eternal-mediocrity-nihilism-for-beginners

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

This is meant purely in good humour but

1) I think quite a few Leaf fans, and most non-hockey people would have been better management for the Leafs than our last 3 groups

2) Wasn't there an article a few years back when Nonis was in charge regarding the draft and comparing Nonis to a potato in making that draft's decisions?  The potato scored a pretty big victory. Now, maybe it was another vegetable or a rock or some such but the point was made.

In sum, it has been baffling that so many posters including you Nik that championed, well, common sense but instead seen what should be assumed to be intelligent hockey men make such frankly stupid decisions.

I'm really not sure of how many majority thoughts on this website regarding the Leafs have been or would have been considered flat out wrong but I imagine someone will point out some obvious errors (maybe Clarkson? I don't know as I've had that memory erased permanently....)

This is a very hockey savvy group of here despite 160 pages
of Stamkos...

EDIT I found the article. It was about free agency

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/7/6/4498278/better-free-agency-dave-nonis-potato-terrible-management-eternal-mediocrity-nihilism-for-beginners

I think with the analytics movement a lot of people really started to see just how bad some executives really are. I mean not that analytics are the whole answer, but they are certainly part of it and to see some executives flat out disregard information was quite an eye-opener. I really think Nonis admitting that they had an analytics budget, but chose not tot use it, was one of the final nails in his coffin in the eyes of a lot of the fan base that take even a passing interest in the numbers.

Without word of a lie, I think you could pick five from about ten posters here that could run an NHL team with more success than the people presently in charge.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Also, while I'm looking at it, shout-out to CtB for getting 15 of 16 playoff teams right. He only missed on the Panthers.

w00t w00t!

I was right about Nashville tho'

yeah, yeah.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I think with the analytics movement a lot of people really started to see just how bad some executives really are. I mean not that analytics are the whole answer, but they are certainly part of it and to see some executives flat out disregard information was quite an eye-opener. I really think Nonis admitting that they had an analytics budget, but chose not tot use it, was one of the final nails in his coffin in the eyes of a lot of the fan base that take even a passing interest in the numbers.

Without word of a lie, I think you could pick five from about ten posters here that could run an NHL team with more success than the people presently in charge.

There's a common-ish saying that if a NHL team hired a good analytics person for million dollar salary all he/she would have to do is say "don't do that" 5 times a year and they'd be worth that money.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I think with the analytics movement a lot of people really started to see just how bad some executives really are. I mean not that analytics are the whole answer, but they are certainly part of it and to see some executives flat out disregard information was quite an eye-opener. I really think Nonis admitting that they had an analytics budget, but chose not tot use it, was one of the final nails in his coffin in the eyes of a lot of the fan base that take even a passing interest in the numbers.

Without word of a lie, I think you could pick five from about ten posters here that could run an NHL team with more success than the people presently in charge.

There's a common-ish saying that if a NHL team hired a good analytics person for million dollar salary all he/she would have to do is say "don't do that" 5 times a year and they'd be worth that money.

That's great, I genuinely laughed.

 

[ZBBM]

What I have learned so far from this thread:

1.  Despite what the framers of our (US) Constitution thought, democracy isn't really all that different from a cage match.

2.  If he'd been around back then Stamkos wouldn't have signed it because he was holding out for better term.

3.  That's pretty much it.

 

[herman]

I think with the analytics movement a lot of people really started to see just how bad some executives really are. I mean not that analytics are the whole answer, but they are certainly part of it and to see some executives flat out disregard information was quite an eye-opener. I really think Nonis admitting that they had an analytics budget, but chose not tot use it, was one of the final nails in his coffin in the eyes of a lot of the fan base that take even a passing interest in the numbers.

Without word of a lie, I think you could pick five from about ten posters here that could run an NHL team with more success than the people presently in charge.

There's a common-ish saying that if a NHL team hired a good analytics person for million dollar salary all he/she would have to do is say "don't do that" 5 times a year and they'd be worth that money.

That's great, I genuinely laughed.

GMs are their own worst enemies during free agency.

Did we already talk about how many truly successful big ticket UFA signings in the cap era led to Cups (multiple)?

 

[Highlander]

Actually hockey is starting to lead the way and the new Leaf management is a prime example over other sports.
It was reported that Roy Hodgson Englands Manager was floating down the Seine on Saturday night (on a Paris tour) while Iceland was playing Austria.  Not at the game watching Iceland tactics etc, he should and the England program should be ashamed. Time for England soccer to catch up with the likes of what many NHL teams including the Leafs and Phoenix are implementing.
Can you imagine Babcock and Lou doing what Hodgson did last weekend???

 

[Kin]

This is meant purely in good humour but

1) I think quite a few Leaf fans, and most non-hockey people would have been better management for the Leafs than our last 3 groups

For what it's worth, I don't agree. I certainly don't agree if you're including me in that.

It's certainly easy enough for someone like me and say "I don't like the Andersen trade" or "Don't sign Matt Martin" and maybe eventually be right about those things but actually running a team involves doing things I don't think I'd be very good at. Negotiating deals with very smart agents, trades with other GMs, managing personalities as well as stat lines...those are tough things to do. It's especially hard to do when, as in the case with the last three management teams, you're not really given full autonomy over the process. So long as you're being asked to build a winner without a patient rebuild I think you're so handicapped that it doesn't matter how smart you are. I don't think Burke or Ferguson or Nonis are dumb guys, they just were asked to pull a rabbit out of their hat.

A lot of the things I've been most wrong about was sort of from that vantage point. Whether it's the Brad Richards deal or the Clarkson one I never argued that their contracts would be ideal or that those players didn't have question marks, just that if the team was actually going to get some wins out of the Kessel years, they might as well pursue the top free agents out there.

A bad recipe makes a bad cook out of anyone.

I'm really not sure of how many majority thoughts on this website regarding the Leafs have been or would have been considered flat out wrong but I imagine someone will point out some obvious errors (maybe Clarkson? I don't know as I've had that memory erased permanently....)

It's hard to say what would constitute a majority but there were lots of people who were pro the Raycroft deal, the Kessel trade, the Toskala trade, etc

Really though, my point there really wasn't about how frequently I was right about these things it was just pointing out that what TBLeafer was doing there was making two blatantly poor arguments. Argumentum ad Populum(lots of people believe differently!) and our old friend Argumentum ad Verecundium(The people running the team must know what they're doing!).

You don't need to have been a Leafs fan for very long to realize how fallacious those are.

 

[lamajama]

I've been led to believe Ferguson's hands were tied rebuild-wise but other than that, many of decisions he should have had control over, were just indefensible.

Burke I believed had pretty much full autonomy until the end, and made some disasterous decisions (lack of lottery pick protection being the most glaring)

Nonis I'm not as sure as but with that being the Liweke (spelling?) era I would say he had a lot as well.

Most of their decisions would be made in consultation within their own management group, but some decisions should never have reached that stage of what I assume would have been serious consideration.

So Nik, you could build a staff to handle the minutiae but the actual hockey dealings you'd do just fine.

Of course, low bar pre-Shanny.....  

 

[TBLeafer]

I think with the analytics movement a lot of people really started to see just how bad some executives really are. I mean not that analytics are the whole answer, but they are certainly part of it and to see some executives flat out disregard information was quite an eye-opener. I really think Nonis admitting that they had an analytics budget, but chose not tot use it, was one of the final nails in his coffin in the eyes of a lot of the fan base that take even a passing interest in the numbers.

Without word of a lie, I think you could pick five from about ten posters here that could run an NHL team with more success than the people presently in charge.

There's a common-ish saying that if a NHL team hired a good analytics person for million dollar salary all he/she would have to do is say "don't do that" 5 times a year and they'd be worth that money.

That's great, I genuinely laughed.

GMs are their own worst enemies during free agency.

Did we already talk about how many truly successful big ticket UFA signings in the cap era led to Cups (multiple)?

I think better to look at how many teams won a Cup WITHOUT at least one big UFA signing or big name trade on their roster.  Heck, even include teams that just made it to the SCF.

 

[Kin]

Burke I believed had pretty much full autonomy until the end, and made some disasterous decisions (lack of lottery pick protection being the most glaring)

Nonis I'm not as sure as but with that being the Liweke (spelling?) era I would say he had a lot as well.

Burke and Nonis had autonomy to do what they wanted within the parameters of the "build while competing" model. They didn't have the autonomy to scrap the team and rebuild.

And I really think that what you refer to as minutiae is really the lion's share of the job.

 

[Kin]

I think better to look at how many teams won a Cup WITHOUT at least one big UFA signing or big name trade on their roster.  Heck, even include teams that just made it to the SCF.

Why? Nobody is saying the Leafs shouldn't make significant trades.