Sun: Leafs interested in Joe Thornton

[losveratos]

There's also the question of his speed and whether that works well with Kessel and JVR.

There's that, and, really, in terms of production from the top line, the 1st line is really approaching the point of diminishing returns. JvR and Kessel aren't likely to see significant bumps in their totals with Thornton (or Stastny, or whoever) playing between them. So, you really have to take a serious look at how much sending assets to upgrade Bozak could take away from the production or potential upgrades throughout the rest of the lineup. For someone like Thornton, my guess is that you'd find yourself giving up more than you'd gain.

Assuming we don't return them a top 6 player. Let's say it was straight up for Dion (though I'd prefer a + added because 7yrs of Dion is worth more) He doesn't just make the first line a little better. That kind of player would make every other line better. Bozak on the 2nd line with Lupul and say Raymond is probably better than with Kadri. And Kadri orHolland on the third line with a couple kids from the Marlies like D'Amigo, Abbott, Carrick, whatever has the chance to give him easier opposition and open his scoring up. Then moving McClemment down to 4th line + PK duties gives him a huge break and eases up on him as well.

When you get a new 1st line player without removing the other forwards it improves every single forward line of the team.

 

[Kin]

Bozak on the 2nd line with Lupul and say Raymond is probably better than with Kadri.

Well, except that's where your thesis runs into a lot of problems as I would wager that most people wouldn't agree with that right here. I think Kadri is probably better than Bozak in terms of generating offense in a second line role.

 

[Kin]

Like any deal, it's really all going to depend on the acquisition cost.

Well, like I'm saying, there are other real concerns. Even if the Leafs got Thornton for free he's still 35, he's still got a big cap hit and he's still showing signs of decline.

Which isn't to say that would make him a bad addition, just that even with an asset cost of zero there are still significant risks.

 

[bustaheims]

When you get a new 1st line player without removing the other forwards it improves every single forward line of the team.

Well, firstly, the deal you propose is highly unlikely to be how it shakes out. If the Sharks trade Thornton, they're going to be looking for multiple, younger pieces. Secondly, you're ignoring the the downgrades to the defence - an area where the Leafs need to improve, not downgrade - while making some pretty significant assumptions about the improvements in the forwards. For one, I don't think Bozak on the 2nd line is better than Kadri (I also don't expect Raymond to be back). I don't think Kadri on the 3rd line in necessarily an improvement either, because I don't feel like he's well suited for that role, and I don't consider Holland an upgrade there, either, because, with the roster as it is right now, that's where he's expected to play. Really, even with all that, adding Thornton in the deal you propose provides a pretty mild upgrade upfront while opening up a significant hole on the defence, and, overall, probably leaves the Leafs a poorer team.

 

[losveratos]

Bozak on the 2nd line with Lupul and say Raymond is probably better than with Kadri.

Well, except that's where your thesis runs into a lot of problems as I would wager that most people wouldn't agree with that right here. I think Kadri is probably better than Bozak in terms of generating offense in a second line role.

Joffrey + Bozak PPG 2011-2012
Joffrey + Kadri not so much 2013-2014

You could say that Kessel was the driving factor and you may be right. But he still did it with Bozak at center. It's possible that he's not so bad at what he does.

Putting that point aside if I'm incorrect in what the coach would do. It still improves 3 lines instead of just 1.

 

[Kin]

I don't think Kadri on the 3rd line in necessarily an improvement either, because I don't feel like he's well suited for that role, and I don't consider Holland an upgrade there, either, because, with the roster as it is right now, that's where he's expected to play.

Yeah, I mean, the ideas that the alternative to adding a guy like Thornton is going into the season with McClement on the third line seems a bit off to me. Obviously the way Carlyle uses the end of his bench is a point of contention with some people and I'm a bigger McClement fan then most but I don't think anyone would advocate McClement being used in anything other than a 4th line/PK role.

The interesting thing about the hypothetical deal is that it creates a logjam where neither of Kadri or Bozak make sense in a third line role(Kadri because of skillset and Bozak because of price tag).

On it's face that seems like a good problem to have but neither option the Leafs would have there seem all that attractive. Either you trade Kadri, which I don't think anyone wants to do, or you try and trade Bozak isn't likely to return anything special. Then, you're banking a ton on Thornton fitting into an already super-productive top line because we've already seen Kadri struggle to fit in there.

 

[losveratos]

When you get a new 1st line player without removing the other forwards it improves every single forward line of the team.

Well, firstly, the deal you propose is highly unlikely to be how it shakes out. If the Sharks trade Thornton, they're going to be looking for multiple, younger pieces. Secondly, you're ignoring the the downgrades to the defence - an area where the Leafs need to improve, not downgrade - while making some pretty significant assumptions about the improvements in the forwards. For one, I don't think Bozak on the 2nd line is better than Kadri (I also don't expect Raymond to be back). I don't think Kadri on the 3rd line in necessarily an improvement either, because I don't feel like he's well suited for that role, and I don't consider Holland an upgrade there, either, because, with the roster as it is right now, that's where he's expected to play. Really, even with all that, adding Thornton in the deal you propose provides a pretty mild upgrade upfront while opening up a significant hole on the defence, and, overall, probably leaves the Leafs a poorer team.

If this were the only deal done. Then it's possible that our defense would be the poorer for it. But I would assume (possibly incorrectly) that our GM would line up a second deal to shore up the D before the year starts. I also think that with the way the NHL is moving that a shut down 3rd line just doesn't suit well anymore and I would hope we move on from that idea next year.

As for Raymond and Holland... I included Raymond because we don't have another name yet until the season starts and I included Holland with Kadri because I'm thinking that if we trade Phanuef we'll be trading Kadri to get the D we need. But I wasn't positive so I tossed in both names there.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Yeah, but, imagine Thornton between JVR and Kessel...come on.

Yeah, but, imagine the rest of the team. Honestly, as much as I'd love for the team to add a legit #1 centre, improving the top line is near the bottom of the list of things that need to be done.

I think improving the top line is pretty important.  They're getting a lot of goals but they're also on the ice for a lot of goals against - to the point it almost cancels each one out.  I think you need a true #1 C who can help go up against the other team's best night in, night out and hopefully help keep the puck in the other end more often.  I think it would go a long way to helping the club.

 

[bustaheims]

If this were the only deal done. Then it's possible that our defense would be the poorer for it. But I would assume (possibly incorrectly) that our GM would line up a second deal to shore up the D before the year starts. I also think that with the way the NHL is moving that a shut down 3rd line just doesn't suit well anymore and I would hope we move on from that idea next year.

As for Raymond and Holland... I included Raymond because we don't have another name yet until the season starts and I included Holland with Kadri because I'm thinking that if we trade Phanuef we'll be trading Kadri to get the D we need. But I wasn't positive so I tossed in both names there.

Well, then you're talking about weakening other areas to make up for the holes you created in another deal. I mean, if you move Kadri, you weaken the forwards, and the realistic return you get from a deal with Kadri as the centrepiece doesn't make up for the loss of Phaneuf. So, now, you've weakened the forwards - counteracting a good portion of the improvement from adding Thornton - without completely compensating for the loss on defence. It just doesn't really work. If the Leafs have to sacrifice any significant part of their NHL roster to add Thornton, it becomes very difficult for them to come out the other end as a better team. Adding Thornton doesn't address the team's more pressing concerns and it takes away assets they could use to do so. I know a lot of us have been focused on adding a 1st line centre for so long that it's hard to get away from it, but, really, this offseason, it's not a priority.

 

[Kin]

Joffrey + Bozak PPG 2011-2012
Joffrey + Kadri not so much 2013-2014

You could say that Kessel was the driving factor and you may be right. But he still did it with Bozak at center. It's possible that he's not so bad at what he does.

Well, except I can say:

Kadri as a 2nd liner in 2012-2013: .92 PPG
Bozak's career high as a first liner: .84 PPG

Because the question is still how they can produce in a second line role and, love Lupul though I do, the team does have to be cognizant of his injury problems and not build their second line around his presence.

Putting that point aside if I'm incorrect in what the coach would do. It still improves 3 lines instead of just 1.

Except, as mentioned, that's only true if McClement is the alternative 3rd line center which I think it's pretty clear isn't the case. Like I mentioned in my post above it's probably more realistic to think that someone gets pushed out rather than everyone being knocked down a slot.

 

[bustaheims]

I think improving the top line is pretty important.  They're getting a lot of goals but they're also on the ice for a lot of goals against - to the point it almost cancels each one out.  I think you need a true #1 C who can help go up against the other team's best night in, night out and hopefully help keep the puck in the other end more often.  I think it would go a long way to helping the club.

I really see the offensive depth as more of a problem. When the top line didn't produce last season, the team didn't score. That's a much bigger issue, as is improving the team's depth on defence and their overall defensive play. The Leafs need to transform themselves into a team that doesn't rely on their top line - not one that is even more heavily invested in it.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

I really see the offensive depth as more of a problem. When the top line didn't produce last season, the team didn't score. That's a much bigger issue, as is improving the team's depth on defence and their overall defensive play. The Leafs need to transform themselves into a team that doesn't rely on their top line - not one that is even more heavily invested in it.

I see this also. I get that Bozak isn't a prototypical 1st line center, but he gets it done, he brings defensive awareness to the top line and from where I'm watching, has improved every year he's played. He's certainly lessening the gap between him and a true top liner.

Another top 4 defenseman and a remodeled bottom 6 that helps the overall defensive game of the team are the biggest issues for me.

 

[Kin]

Another top 4 defenseman and a remodeled bottom 6 that helps the overall defensive game of the team are the biggest issues for me.

I actually think that one of the bigger things the Leafs need to be looking for is the third piece of the Lupul-Kadri starting point that I think most people assume is going to be the second line. Raymond was a useful, cost effective piece but that was a pretty soft grouping that didn't add much in the way of defense or versatility to the team. Kulemin adds size and responsibility but his ability to score enough to get a regular top 6 role is questionable.

I agree that a bottom six revamping is important but I really think that can be done in-house. In terms of external additions I think the Leafs really need to look for that last piece of the top six, upgrade on McClement as a defensive center and...well, another defenseman would be nice but unless you're trading Phaneuf I don't really see what the point is.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I think improving the top line is pretty important.  They're getting a lot of goals but they're also on the ice for a lot of goals against - to the point it almost cancels each one out.  I think you need a true #1 C who can help go up against the other team's best night in, night out and hopefully help keep the puck in the other end more often.  I think it would go a long way to helping the club.

I really see the offensive depth as more of a problem. When the top line didn't produce last season, the team didn't score. That's a much bigger issue, as is improving the team's depth on defence and their overall defensive play. The Leafs need to transform themselves into a team that doesn't rely on their top line - not one that is even more heavily invested in it.

I'm not saying the rest of the depth doesn't have to improve to, but I don't think they're going anywhere without a C like the kind I'm talking about to help that line cut down on the GA.  They have numerous cheap in-house options to help the depth this coming season, so hopefully that will be a bit lessened.  But the top line is still on for too many goals against, despite big offensive numbers.  They're sitting in the low-to-mid 50s in GF% when they should really be in the high 50s to 60s.

 

[bustaheims]

I'm not saying the rest of the depth doesn't have to improve to, but I don't think they're going anywhere without a C like the kind I'm talking about to help that line cut down on the GA.  They have numerous cheap in-house options to help the depth this coming season, so hopefully that will be a bit lessened.  But the top line is still on for too many goals against, despite big offensive numbers.  They're sitting in the low-to-mid 50s in GF% when they should really be in the high 50s to 60s.

That's true, but, I feel like a lot of that is due to their over usage and the team's overall poor defensive structure.

 

[Sudafederov]

I'm all for this trade. In terms of a timeline, it works out almost perfectly until Tavares gets here  8)

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

I actually think that one of the bigger things the Leafs need to be looking for is the third piece of the Lupul-Kadri starting point that I think most people assume is going to be the second line. Raymond was a useful, cost effective piece but that was a pretty soft grouping that didn't add much in the way of defense or versatility to the team. Kulemin adds size and responsibility but his ability to score enough to get a regular top 6 role is questionable.

I've actually done a fair bit of looking around for that player and I keep coming back to Kulemin when filling that role. The signing of Clarkson pretty much limited our choice in my opinion, because of how much was given to him. If we could have the 30 goal scoring Kulemin back, we wouldn't even be having this conversation.

I agree that a bottom six revamping is important but I really think that can be done in-house. In terms of external additions I think the Leafs really need to look for that last piece of the top six, upgrade on McClement as a defensive center and...well, another defenseman would be nice but unless you're trading Phaneuf I don't really see what the point is.

I don't think we can fill all the bottom 6 holes from within, but maybe half of them. D'Amigo is one guy that will probably come in and we probably have no choice with Holland, because of his ability. But I also think we need to look at the free agent field for a few others, including one of our own from a couple seasons ago.

Finding another blueliner for the top 4 was more about replacing Franson, who I thought most of us figured needed an upgrade.

 

[Kin]

If we could have the 30 goal scoring Kulemin back, we wouldn't even be having this conversation.

Well, yeah. But that's the point. Absent a return to form from Kulemin, and keeping in mind you'd need to sign him on that basis, that's a position where the Leafs have limited options.

I don't think we can fill all the bottom 6 holes from within, but maybe half of them. D'Amigo is one guy that will probably come in and we probably have no choice with Holland, because of his ability. But I also think we need to look at the free agent field for a few others, including one of our own from a couple seasons ago.

Well, if you figure that Holland is more or less a safe bet to return and D'Amigo is as well and you add McClement then you've only got three spots to fill. Clarkson is getting one of them unless he's a second liner which, at this point, seems like a pipe dream. I really think that for the two remaining spots guys like Leivo, McKegg and Ashton should get every opportunity to step up and fill them. While, yeah, you might want to look elsewhere for similar guys odds are you're not going to spend much money there and so whoever you might find are likely to just be alternatives to those guys as opposed to real upgrades.

Finding another blueliner for the top 4 was more about replacing Franson, who I thought most of us figured needed an upgrade.

I don't think it's a bad idea exactly but then you're in the position of looking at available defensemen and either trading something significant or wading into the UFA market, neither of which I think would be preferable to going with a top four of Phaneuf, Gunnar, Rielly and Gardiner.

 

[Bullfrog]

If we could have the 30 goal scoring Kulemin back, we wouldn't even be having this conversation.

Well, yeah. But that's the point. Absent a return to form from Kulemin, and keeping in mind you'd need to sign him on that basis, that's a position where the Leafs have limited options.

I keep returning to this. In my head, Kulemin should be that guy: the guy who can pot 20 goals and contribute to the defensive and physical side on that line and Kadri and Lupul can be the scorers who can safely put up 60 points or so. Unfortunately, the reality is he's only been a 10g/30p player for the last three seasons. He's one of my favorites, but he's really just a third liner/pk'er at this point.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Kulemin scoring 30 is an aberration and he shouldn't be held to that standard.  Again with SH%, which year stands out? http://mapleleafs.nhl.com/club/player.htm?id=8473579

Given a more offensive role, he's likely to shoot around 11% and is probably good for 15 goals.  If a more defensive role, likely less than that.  Shouldn't be talked of as getting 'back' to 30 goals though, if it happens again it will be just a fortunate season like that one was, but he would have to be put back into a prime offensive position like he was with Grabovski-MacArthur.