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Tank Nation: Matthews Edition

bustaheims said:
There's different rules for NCAA guys like Wheeler and Vesey. Matthews would actually re-enter the draft in 2019 - though, there's some confusion about this in regards to the status of the various transfer agreements and such.

Since he's being drafted from a team outside of North America the team who drafts him will own his rights for 4 years. If he's not signed by then he'll be an unrestricted free agent.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
Since he's being drafted from a team outside of North America the team who drafts him will own his rights for 4 years. If he's not signed by then he'll be an unrestricted free agent.

Well then . . .

But, you know, the second he even threatens something like that, the league will make sure they get some sort of transfer agreement sorted out that prevents it from happening. The last thing the league wants is to set up a precedent that allows basically any high-end prospect to completely side-step the draft like this.
 
bustaheims said:
Well then . . .

But, you know, the second he even threatens something like that, the league will make sure they get some sort of transfer agreement sorted out that prevents it from happening. The last thing the league wants is to set up a precedent that allows basically any high-end prospect to completely side-step the draft like this.

There's really nothing a transfer agreement would do. Matthews wouldn't have a contract with a NHL team, a team would just own his NHL rights. What if he just genuinely didn't want to play in the NHL and wanted to remain in Europe? They can't control a player who hasn't signed anything like that.

With that said, I mean 4 years is a pretty long time, I really can't see any way Matthews would actually stay out that long. Maybe he bluffs and plays there for another year and hopes that's enough to force a trade, but there's no way he sits for long enough to become a UFA.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
There's really nothing a transfer agreement would do. Matthews wouldn't have a contract with a NHL team, a team would just own his NHL rights. What if he just genuinely didn't want to play in the NHL and wanted to remain in Europe? They can't control a player who hasn't signed anything like that.

Right. The NHL wouldn't like it if that happened but the last thing they'd actually want is osmeone to bring an anti-trust case against them where they had to defend a position where Auston Matthews, who never signed a contract with them and was never part of an organization who negotiated a CBA with them, could never reach UFA status. 4 years, like you say, is already a really long time to wait. 

CarltonTheBear said:
With that said, I mean 4 years is a pretty long time, I really can't see any way Matthews would actually stay out that long. Maybe he bluffs and plays there for another year and hopes that's enough to force a trade, but there's no way he sits for long enough to become a UFA.

It's unlikely, I grant you, but I think that has more to do with the fact that signing another one year deal in Switzerland(or the KHL if he's chasing money) almost certainly would force a trade. If he's drafted by the Oilers and he decides he'd rather earn big bucks living in Europe than contractually bind himself to Edmonton for 8 years how patient would Edmonton be letting that situation play out?
 
As I understand it, not counting the decreased odds this year, out of the last 20 years with the substantially higher odds the team finishing dead last only won the lottery 6 times.

It's all the hope I have left, because we sure as hell ain't finishing 30th. I never thought we'd win the lottery as much as we could only then drop 4 spots.
 
There is no way we beat the Oilers for worst place. The Oilers' schedule for the rest of the way is atrocious. They could easily lose all their remaining games.

The way we're playing now Nylander et al. are pushing the team to win and with Bozak coming back I think it's totally possible we finish 4th or 5th last and drop out of the top 5 altogether based on the rules of the new lottery. This could be a bad stretch for us. I will be pretty pissed if we drop out of the top 5... and as much as I like Alex Nylander, his point totals are nowhere near that of Matthew Tkachuk's (although I believe he is playing on a line with Marner and Dvorak).
 
lamajama said:
As I understand it, not counting the decreased odds this year, out of the last 20 years with the substantially higher odds the team finishing dead last only won the lottery 6 times.

It's all the hope I have left, because we sure as hell ain't finishing 30th. I never thought we'd win the lottery as much as we could only then drop 4 spots.

The fans don't need to worry about where the team ends up.  There are no guarantees in any of this.  What the fans should worry about is that the management running the team is competent enough in their jobs to assemble a roster that can compete for the cup.  Even if they assemble a roster that can compete for the cup, there is no guarantees that they are going to win it.  A step always seems to be glossed over in this thought process, where "higher chances" becomes "absolute certainty" which drives the expectations out of whack.

If the Leafs draft 7th, they draft 7th, if they draft 1st, they draft 1st.  The management team will have to decide what to do based on which scenario they are presented with. 

Everyone focuses on "I want Connor McDavid, I want Auston Matthews" as if that will change the teams fortunes just by virtue of them being a great player.  What I would like, as a fan, is if the team that I cheer for isn't the laughingstock of the NHL, and I think they have made good strides towards getting there.  When I say laughingstock, I don't necessarily mean by their play on the ice, but rather the manner in which the management and the team conduct themselves.  I would like to trust that the management team that is employed by the team that I cheer for is going to make smart, informed decisions and develop a course of action that will produce a product on the ice that one can take satisfaction in watching.  Occasionally they may make a mistake.  That happens to even the best management teams.  Overall however, I hope that they will make consistent decisions that will drive the team to their goal.

That's why as I fans, I don't feel that we need to be concerned about where the Leafs draft.  We would need to be concerned if the management team got told they aren't drafting in the top 3 and they threw their hands up in the air and went "well that's it, we're done.  Pack it in people, this rebuild is a bust." which is not what I think will happen.  We should just enjoy the ride, wait and see what happens, and watch how the team reacts to the results.
 
Again, I'd prefer to finish last and I'd prefer the 1st overall pick but going back 26 years to 1990, by my count a 1st overall pick has contributed to a Cup win on 5 teams (Lecavalier, Fleury/Crosby, Kane x 3).  Obviously that's not scientific by any stretch (Many of those 1st overall picks continue to be on strong teams that could win a Cup and scouting has improved tremendously I would say since the 90s to today) but if the consensus 1st pick isn't a Crosby type player (or McDavid I guess) then I don't think it's worth getting bent out of shape too much about.  Whatever happens, happens.  Maybe pray to the old Gods and the new.
 
Significantly Insignificant said:
The fans don't need to worry about where the team ends up.  There are no guarantees in any of this.  What the fans should worry about is that the management running the team is competent enough in their jobs to assemble a roster that can compete for the cup.  Even if they assemble a roster that can compete for the cup, there is no guarantees that they are going to win it.  A step always seems to be glossed over in this thought process, where "higher chances" becomes "absolute certainty" which drives the expectations out of whack.

If the Leafs draft 7th, they draft 7th, if they draft 1st, they draft 1st.  The management team will have to decide what to do based on which scenario they are presented with. 

Everyone focuses on "I want Connor McDavid, I want Auston Matthews" as if that will change the teams fortunes just by virtue of them being a great player.  What I would like, as a fan, is if the team that I cheer for isn't the laughingstock of the NHL, and I think they have made good strides towards getting there.  When I say laughingstock, I don't necessarily mean by their play on the ice, but rather the manner in which the management and the team conduct themselves.  I would like to trust that the management team that is employed by the team that I cheer for is going to make smart, informed decisions and develop a course of action that will produce a product on the ice that one can take satisfaction in watching.  Occasionally they may make a mistake.  That happens to even the best management teams.  Overall however, I hope that they will make consistent decisions that will drive the team to their goal.

That's why as I fans, I don't feel that we need to be concerned about where the Leafs draft.  We would need to be concerned if the management team got told they aren't drafting in the top 3 and they threw their hands up in the air and went "well that's it, we're done.  Pack it in people, this rebuild is a bust." which is not what I think will happen.  We should just enjoy the ride, wait and see what happens, and watch how the team reacts to the results.

cropped_NylanderPenaltyShot.gif


Glorious, SI.
 
I very much agree with what SI says above. Even if we come last we're only getting a slightly better chance at the first overall pick which we may even get if we come 4th last. We can't control any of that.

Just watching the team in the last few weeks the general mood has changed. There are signs of the shoots of progress there. The young guys have come in and put in huge effort and are even seeing reward for it.

I believe we have had 11 Marlies make their NHL debut this season. Obviously it's a very small sample size, but pretty much all of them have shown signs that they can play in the league. Some have shown signs of potential to be probably not that top line world superstar level but the level just below. I'd rather have a group of them than one superstar and a lot of mediocrity.

Also we have 2 first round picks this year. I think that's more important than where out first is. As is what we do with the other picks in other rounds.
 
Bender said:
I will be pretty pissed if we drop out of the top 5... and as much as I like Alex Nylander, his point totals are nowhere near that of Matthew Tkachuk's (although I believe he is playing on a line with Marner and Dvorak).

I'm not really in love with Tkachuk. I don't think he'll be a bust or anything but I'm just not sure if he's 4th overall worthy. Like you said, he's playing with some pretty good players and that's benefiting him tremendously. Tkachuk leads the OHL in secondary assists, and by a decent margin. He has 41 secondary assists per http://www.ohl.prospect-stats.com/. Only 2 other players are in the 30s: Christian Dvorak, and defenceman Rasmus Andersson.

Now obviously he has a boatload of points and obviously a bunch of them will be secondary assists, but the fact that secondary assists dominate his stat line concerns me. He has 30 goals, 36 primary assists, and 41 secondary assists. Christian Dvorak for instance might be 2nd in the league in secondary assists with 35 but he has 52 goals to Tkachuk's 30. Dylan Strome is 4th in secondary assists but he has 37 goals, 46 primary assists, and 28 secondary assists. Konecny is 5th in that category but his stat line reads 30 G, 44 1A, 27 2A. Marner is 7th but he has twice as many primary assists than he does secondary: 39 G, 51 1A, 25 2A.

For the record Nylander's stat line reads 28 G, 27 1A, 20 2A. So even if you were just looking at primary points Tkachuk is still outscoring him. Although Nylander is the primary offensive weapon on his team while Tkachuk of course isn't.

I mean, it's obviously not Tkachuk's fault that he was drafted by the Knights (ok, well, maybe it is actually), but it just makes him tougher to read for me. It's also the 2nd season in a row for him where he's played shotgun on a line with a much better player. He played all of last season with Auston Matthews on the US U18 team.
 
Potvin29 said:
Again, I'd prefer to finish last and I'd prefer the 1st overall pick but going back 26 years to 1990, by my count a 1st overall pick has contributed to a Cup win on 5 teams (Lecavalier, Fleury/Crosby, Kane x 3).  Obviously that's not scientific by any stretch (Many of those 1st overall picks continue to be on strong teams that could win a Cup and scouting has improved tremendously I would say since the 90s to today) but if the consensus 1st pick isn't a Crosby type player (or McDavid I guess) then I don't think it's worth getting bent out of shape too much about.  Whatever happens, happens.  Maybe pray to the old Gods and the new.

Is Matthews as good as Eichel?
 
CarltonTheBear said:
I'm not really in love with Tkachuk. I don't think he'll be a bust or anything but I'm just not sure if he's 4th overall worthy.

Same thoughts here. Perhaps there's potential for some trading up and down of wildcard team selections in this draft.
 
Bender said:
Potvin29 said:
Again, I'd prefer to finish last and I'd prefer the 1st overall pick but going back 26 years to 1990, by my count a 1st overall pick has contributed to a Cup win on 5 teams (Lecavalier, Fleury/Crosby, Kane x 3).  Obviously that's not scientific by any stretch (Many of those 1st overall picks continue to be on strong teams that could win a Cup and scouting has improved tremendously I would say since the 90s to today) but if the consensus 1st pick isn't a Crosby type player (or McDavid I guess) then I don't think it's worth getting bent out of shape too much about.  Whatever happens, happens.  Maybe pray to the old Gods and the new.

Is Matthews as good as Eichel?

I remember Bob McKenzie saying that if Matthews went in last year's draft (which he was a few days away from being eligible for), he would have been a clear cut #3.  So, not as good as Eichel, but better than Strome/Marner/Hanafin.
 
louisstamos said:
Bender said:
Potvin29 said:
Again, I'd prefer to finish last and I'd prefer the 1st overall pick but going back 26 years to 1990, by my count a 1st overall pick has contributed to a Cup win on 5 teams (Lecavalier, Fleury/Crosby, Kane x 3).  Obviously that's not scientific by any stretch (Many of those 1st overall picks continue to be on strong teams that could win a Cup and scouting has improved tremendously I would say since the 90s to today) but if the consensus 1st pick isn't a Crosby type player (or McDavid I guess) then I don't think it's worth getting bent out of shape too much about.  Whatever happens, happens.  Maybe pray to the old Gods and the new.

Is Matthews as good as Eichel?

I remember Bob McKenzie saying that if Matthews went in last year's draft (which he was a few days away from being eligible for), he would have been a clear cut #3.  So, not as good as Eichel, but better than Strome/Marner/Hanafin.

I've seen him talked about as similar to Eichel.  Both a step below the calibre of a McDavid.
 
louisstamos said:
I remember Bob McKenzie saying that if Matthews went in last year's draft (which he was a few days away from being eligible for), he would have been a clear cut #3.  So, not as good as Eichel, but better than Strome/Marner/Hanafin.

Eichel was about a month and a half away from being eligible for the 2014 draft, so the whole age thing goes both ways. Matthews is still basically a full year younger than Eichel. And while it's tough to compare their draft year numbers because Eichel was in college and Matthews is in Europe, if you look at their pre-draft year seasons where they both played for the US National Development team you'll find that Matthews put up better points.

It's impossible to say right now who would have been drafted over who, but I think Matthews is at least on the same level as Eichel.
 
SI that was a brilliant post. I agree with you 100%.  Perhaps the less we focus on what we do want the more chance we get what we want. Sometimes life works that way.
Management will just deal with what comes up and make the best choices. And we can all relax and enjoy the ride. We have already been through the living hell of the Carlyle/Horachuk years.
 
I feel dirty because Button seems to be his biggest fan, but I'm starting to jump on the Pierre-Luc Dubois bandwagon. Dubois, Chychrun, and Clayton Keller would probably make up my 4-6 rankings in some order; with Tkachuk, Nylander, and Juolevi being in the 7-9 slots.
 

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