Tank Nation: Matthews Edition
- Thread starter LuncheonMeat
- Start date
L K said:
Yeah but a 35% chance of dropping to 4th. I mean what's even the point?
8) 8) 8)
Al14
New member
CarltonTheBear said:L K said:
Yeah but a 35% chance of dropping to 4th. I mean what's even the point?
If management is as good as we all seem to think, then, drafting 1st to 4th overall should not matter. We'll get a very good player if our scouts and management make the correct decisions.
Drafting Matthews does not automatically mean we'll be getting a franchise player. It also does not mean he'll even want to play in Canada, never mind Toronto.
It will be at least one full season before we know what kind a player we draft. Look at Rielly, we're still not 100% sure he'll turn out to be a true #1 D in the NHL.
If the widely held agreement is that this is a top 3 draft, and there is a noticeable drop
off at 4 and beyond, then it does "matter" to be in the top 3 at least. As you say, no guarantees
at all, but to go through a year like this and not be able to draft as high as possible would
be disappointing.
Beyond that, it's Hunter/scouts that will make the difference and I'd rather have the 1st opportunity
to take the player they judge to be the "best of the rest" at least
off at 4 and beyond, then it does "matter" to be in the top 3 at least. As you say, no guarantees
at all, but to go through a year like this and not be able to draft as high as possible would
be disappointing.
Beyond that, it's Hunter/scouts that will make the difference and I'd rather have the 1st opportunity
to take the player they judge to be the "best of the rest" at least
Heroic Shrimp
Active member
Bender said:
I guess I'm more comfortable with Lou giving me pain than pleasure.
So did Lou call in a favour?
Kin
New member
Al14 said:
I said this in the GDT but you have badly misread the popular opinion on this management if you think that most people think they're so good at their jobs that a mistake is impossible or that they don't benefit from drafting 1st vs. 4th like anyone else.
It's not just about drafting a "very good player". It's about building a team. Gabriel Landeskog is a very good player. John Tavares is better. Do you think it doesn't matter which one is on a team? You want as high a draft pick as possible so that the people running the team have the best possible chance at drafting a franchise player. If they think it's Matthews and that Matthew Tkachuk is good but not at that level then it doesn't matter how smart they are if they're drafting 4th. There is no level of managerial competence that can make the 4th pick more valuable than the 1st.
Kin
New member
lamajama said:
Yeah, I mean, thing is I get what Significantly Insignificant was talking about when he said that to many people were taking a "Matthews or bust!" mentality and I won't be heartbroken if the Leafs end up drafting 4th or 5th or whatever.
That said, I'm someone who recognizes that this is going to be a multi-year process. The team next year may very well be worse than this year's team. I'm ok with that.
Kin
New member
RedLeaf said:
Well, I do think that but that's largely connected to how I think the team is going to approach the rebuild this off-season. I don't think, for instance, the team is going to sign Stamkos. I do think, though, that the team is going to look to move some key pieces JVR/Kadri for picks/prospects.
So next year's team, if I were to guess, is going to be like this year's team except without the good/very good contributions at times from some pretty good players. In their place will be a bunch of young players who, while talented, are going to be asked to play their first full NHL seasons. Some of them will succeed but others will struggle.
Obviously there's not much further to fall which is why I said next year's team may be worse but I would bet pretty heavily against a substantial improvement strictly in a points context. The D will be bad, the goaltending will be a huge question mark and the offense is going to depend a ton on kids.
bustaheims
Active member
Frank E said:
More than they'd be willing to. I'd insist on their pick, OEL, and at least one of Domi and Dvorak.
bustaheims
Active member
Tigger said:
Yeah. I mean, it really depends on how the off-season plays out. There's going to be a lot of rookies in the lineup, and in prominent positions. That's usually not a recipe for immediate success. And, if they move a couple of the more productive veterans out, I'd say the odds are strong that their point total next season is fairly similar to their current total. I don't know if I'd say they'll be worse, but I can certainly see a strong possibility of them not be more successful.