Tank Nation: Matthews Edition

[Tigger]

So, as per the discussion on tv, what would it take from Arizona to trade for the first overall pick from you?  And say they're picking 7th.

They might be a team you could dicker with for their pick this year.

 

[Kin]

So, as per the discussion on tv, what would it take from Arizona to trade for the first overall pick from you?  And say they're picking 7th.

More than they'd be willing to. I'd insist on their pick, OEL, and at least one of Domi and Dvorak.

Yeah, I wouldn't make the trade no matter what but to even talk about it has to be an offer that not only improves the club but where you can look to a fanbase desperate for a star that would rightly second-guess trading out of the top 5 and say "There's just no way we could turn down this offer" and Arizona just isn't in a place to make that offer. That's a sure-fire way for them to end up as the Oilers but with a local kid in Taylor Hall's role. Anyone who thinks that a garbage Coyotes team is going to draw in that market just because their best player is from there...I just don't see what they'd be basing that on. 

 

[bustaheims]

Yeah, I wouldn't make the trade no matter what but to even talk about it has to be an offer that not only improves the club but where you can look to a fanbase desperate for a star that would rightly second-guess trading out of the top 5 and say "There's just no way we could turn down this offer" and Arizona just isn't in a place to make that offer. That's a sure-fire way for them to end up as the Oilers but with a local kid in Taylor Hall's role. Anyone who thinks that a garbage Coyotes team is going to draw in that market just because their best player is from there...I just don't see what they'd be basing that on.

Agreed. The only justifiable deals that see Matthews being moved decimate the other team.

 

[Tigger]

There's more than a slim chance the Leafs could be worse next year.

Yeah. I mean, it really depends on how the off-season plays out. There's going to be a lot of rookies in the lineup, and in prominent positions. That's usually not a recipe for immediate success. And, if they move a couple of the more productive veterans out, I'd say the odds are strong that their point total next season is fairly similar to their current total. I don't know if I'd say they'll be worse, but I can certainly see a strong possibility of them not be more successful.

I honestly can't envision an offseason that makes them notably better, a positive goaltending change, maybe. I'm pretty ok with that, fwiw. Also, those Leafs rookies sophomore year won't likely be much better, and that's ok too, they need to go for top 4 picks for at least 2 more years.

 

[bustaheims]

I honestly can't envision an offseason that makes them notably better, a positive goaltending change, maybe. I'm pretty ok with that, fwiw. Also, those Leafs rookies sophomore year won't likely be much better, and that's ok too, they need to go for top 4 picks for at least 2 more years.

Again, that depends on the off-season/trades they end up making, and whether or not they get Matthews this year. You're likely right, but adding Matthews and getting good returns on Kadri, JvR, Komarov, etc., and they might be able to shave a year off that. Not that I'm saying they'd be in contention at that point, but, they'd be in a position where only drafting in the top 10 might be enough. No Matthews and/or more expected type value in deals, and I'd say you're probably bang on - at least two more top 5 picks.

 

[Tigger]

I honestly can't envision an offseason that makes them notably better, a positive goaltending change, maybe. I'm pretty ok with that, fwiw. Also, those Leafs rookies sophomore year won't likely be much better, and that's ok too, they need to go for top 4 picks for at least 2 more years.

Again, that depends on the off-season/trades they end up making, and whether or not they get Matthews this year. You're likely right, but adding Matthews and getting good returns on Kadri, JvR, Komarov, etc., and they might be able to shave a year off that. Not that I'm saying they'd be in contention at that point, but, they'd be in a position where only drafting in the top 10 might be enough.

Sure, they could, it's just sort of unlikely that a peak confluence of specific talent related influx will happen to that degree. I mean, I play with roster alignments that include Hedman just because it could happen, probably won't though, and I hope and kind of believe that the Shanagroup sees it too.

 

[L K]

So, as per the discussion on tv, what would it take from Arizona to trade for the first overall pick from you?  And say they're picking 7th.

Burke's Sedin trade to wind up with the 1st overall pick for the Sedin's:

1) 11th overall (2000) + Bryan McCabe for 4th overall (1999)
2) 4th overall (1999) + 2 3rd round picks for 1st overall (1999)....
3) The 4th overall was really flipped for 8th overall (2000), Niklas Sundstrom, Danny Cloutier, 3rd round pick

So to go from an 11th overall pick in 2000 to 1st overall (that was just swapped to Atlanta for the 2nd overall pick in a handshake agreement) Burke had to effectively trade:

Bryan McCabe, Niklas Sundstrom, Danny Cloutier, 67th overall (2000), 75th overall (1999), 88th overall (1999), and 8th overall (2000)

If Arizona has the 7th overall pick and the Leafs have 1st.  Honestly I would probably be looking at something like:
7th + Kyle Wood + Christian Dvorak + 3rd round pick + something else

I think the cost needs to be high and I'm not sure that I would be making the trade.

 

[mr grieves]

I honestly can't envision an offseason that makes them notably better, a positive goaltending change, maybe. I'm pretty ok with that, fwiw. Also, those Leafs rookies sophomore year won't likely be much better, and that's ok too, they need to go for top 4 picks for at least 2 more years.

I don't believe that they'll be able to get into the top 4 pick territory for two more seasons (until 2018-19!?) unless they dump all of Kadri, JvR, and Gardiner, keep Marner in junior next season, and trade William Nylander for David Clarkson.

 

[Tigger]

I honestly can't envision an offseason that makes them notably better, a positive goaltending change, maybe. I'm pretty ok with that, fwiw. Also, those Leafs rookies sophomore year won't likely be much better, and that's ok too, they need to go for top 4 picks for at least 2 more years.

I don't believe that they'll be able to get into the top 4 pick territory for two more seasons (until 2018-19!?) unless they dump all of Kadri, JvR, and Gardiner, keep Marner in junior next season, and trade William Nylander for David Clarkson.

You mean David Clarkson's rotting corpse? Sure, in a year or two they could take advantage of that kind of LTIR. Otherwise, you go Puddleglum.

 

[caver]

the Tank is strong tonight...

 

[bustaheims]

It can all be over tomorrow night.

 

[Zee]

Well that was something tonight. Leafs can clinch 30th with a loss tomorrow

 

[hap_leaf]

There is hope.

 

[herman]

 

[lamajama]

Flyers lose to Detroit. They HAVE to win vs Leafs tomorrow night.

 

[Britishbulldog]

So, as per the discussion on tv, what would it take from Arizona to trade for the first overall pick from you?  And say they're picking 7th.

Burke's Sedin trade to wind up with the 1st overall pick for the Sedin's:

1) 11th overall (2000) + Bryan McCabe for 4th overall (1999)
2) 4th overall (1999) + 2 3rd round picks for 1st overall (1999)....
3) The 4th overall was really flipped for 8th overall (2000), Niklas Sundstrom, Danny Cloutier, 3rd round pick

So to go from an 11th overall pick in 2000 to 1st overall (that was just swapped to Atlanta for the 2nd overall pick in a handshake agreement) Burke had to effectively trade:

8th overall (2000), Bryan McCabe, Niklas Sundstrom, Danny Cloutier, 67th overall (2000), 75th overall (1999), and 88th overall (1999)

If Arizona has the 7th overall pick and the Leafs have 1st.  Honestly I would probably be looking at something like:
7th + Kyle Wood + Christian Dvorak + 3rd round pick + something else

I think the cost needs to be high and I'm not sure that I would be making the trade.

More than they'd be willing to. I'd insist on their pick, OEL, and at least one of Domi and Dvorak.

Looking at the Vancouver trade for the 1st overall I would look at bustaheim's deal as more appropriate.  As others have noted, you need to get a franchise level player for Matthews which Arizona really doesn't have so I would start with Strome and OEL with their 7th overall and pitch something like:

7th overall, OEL, Strome, Kyle Wood for 1st overall, Gardiner, and Percy.

 

[Kin]

This is where we fall into the trap of assuming that the value of draft picks are static from year to year. The '99 Draft was not a good one and it certainly wasn't a year where everyonee was falling all over themselves asking "who's going to draft Patrik Stefan?".

I mean, look at the trade to move from 4th to 1st. Is there any chance that would happen in a year where people were at all excited about the #1 pick? 

 

[crazyperfectdevil]

This is where we fall into the trap of assuming that the value of draft picks are static from year to year. The '99 Draft was not a good one and it certainly wasn't a year where everyonee was falling all over themselves asking "who's going to draft Patrik Stefan?".

I mean, look at the trade to move from 4th to 1st. Is there any chance that would happen in a year where people were at all excited about the #1 pick?

also i'd argue that draft picks have gone up in perceived value in general since then.  prying first rounders off teams seems to get harder with each passing year regardless of the talent pool.

 

[sickbeast]

Oh boy oh boy oh boy! We are so close I can taste it! Please Leafs lose the last two games!

 

[bustaheims]

Oh boy oh boy oh boy! We are so close I can taste it! Please Leafs lose the last two games!

They only need to lose one in regulation! Only one!