Tank Nation UNITE!!!

[Kin]

Nice work, but I'm not sure January 1 is a fair break point.  He should be in mid-season form at that time.  I think March 1 forward would be a better indication of conditioning, if you feel so inclined.

Isn't that where his very good playoff scoring numbers come into effect?

 

[Chris]

Although there's not enough data to be absolutely conclusive, his ppg improving a bit as the season went on crudely refutes the notion that his general conditioning has been a significant issue.

Damian Cox reported he'd tested top 3 in training camp not long ago.

Maybe that's an indictment of the overall conditioning level of the team...or perhaps the report wasn't accurate. Whatever, he certainly doesn't look particularly well conditioned right now. Whether that is due to injury, apathy, or something else, who knows.

Actually, I read an article recently that showed similar results, i.e. that over his Leafs career (prior to this season), his scoring generally peaks later in the season. Some might argue that his scoring peaked after the Leafs were out of the playoffs when the games didn't matter anymore but I don't have the time to research that.

I just know what I see on the televised games. And based on that, I don't really want any of Kessel, Bozak, JVR and Lupul around as younger players are brought in.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Kessel doesn't produce against top teams....

Becomes Kessel's conditioning is bad.....

Becomes, Kessel scores when Leafs are out of contention.....

Becomes but this time when they're out of contention he's not scoring right now because he's lazy and doesn't give effort (but you just said...).....

Becomes....

It'll never end.  No matter what you say to back it up, the goal posts will simply shift again.  He could score 70 goals but they wouldn't be the "right" goals at the "right" time against the "right" teams, however it's defined at that particular time.

 

[Kin]

I love reading comments about how people want Zach Sill on the team next year because he punched Steve Ott in the face, but Phil Kessel is just a huge pile of crap because he can't single handedly win games. Phil Kessel is the problem, not the other 9 useless forwards that make up this roster. Just Phil.

I understand what you're saying here and I agree that Kessel is taking some unfair criticism but I do think you're a little off base here in a number of ways. For starters, I think anyone saying that they want Zach Sill on the team next year is doing so with the understanding that the team will be bad next year and if they're going to watch a terrible hockey team they'd like someone on the 4th line who'll at least provide some memorable fights. It's not "Zach Sill is better than Phil Kessel".

Sill being on the team next season over another 4th liner is largely immaterial to where the Leafs are ultimately going. He's not going to substantially change where the team finishes and his inclusion in the roster isn't a telling sign as to what direction the Leafs are ultimately taking. Kessel's future on the club is important in those respects and as a result he's going to draw by far the most discussion. Even compared to someone like Bozak, I think the reason you don't see more Bozak criticism is because Bozak, I think, would have no defenders at this point. It's not really a matter of discussion. Bozak won't be around when the team is competitive again and the decision to move on is an easy one. Why dwell on that? What can really be said there? Continuing to hammer him for not being as good as Jonathan Toews?

The starting QB is always going to get more criticism than the long snapper even if the long snapper is, relatively speaking, worse at his job than the starting QB.

 

[Chris]

It'll never end.  No matter what you say to back it up, the goal posts will simply shift again.  He could score 70 goals but they wouldn't be the "right" goals at the "right" time against the "right" teams, however it's defined at that particular time.

Well, if he scores 70 but is on the ice for 100+ against, how much does that really help the team?

 

[slapshot]

Well Bill Watters thinks the Leafs would get a an average pick a roster player with bad contract and would have to retain almost have of Kessls salary.. the senile old coot

I've been critical of Kessel and his value and that may be over the top to me.

He's paid as a top 10 NHLer but although he's sometimes a top 10 scorer, in my opinion, he isn't a top 10 NHLer. Ask yourself honestly, if you could pick any 10 players in the league for your team, would Kessel be on your list? Handily, my answer without even having to look is no - I don't even have to think about it as it's not that close for me. And I felt that way long before this season.

He's never received a vote for the Hart Trophy and he won't this season.
He's never been elected to the 1st or 2nd All Star team and he won't this season.
How could both those things be true and he be a top 10 NHL player?
Yep, it's just another subjective metric. But one more that doesn't add up for me.

In my opinion:

If they eat some of his contract - such that the net is his fair contract value, then they should get full pop for his talent value in prospects/picks.

If they don't eat some of his contract - such that the net is higher than his fair contract value, then they should get a discounted return on his value in prospects/picks to make up for that.

To eat a bunch of his contract such that the net is his fair contract value AND get a discounted return on his value in prospects/picks is double banging.

If they were to eat part of his contract such that the net is still above his fair value, that's the only condition that maybe some discounted return on his value in prospects/picks is appropriate.

A simpler way of looking at it might be:
Take what you think he's worth in young talent and then subtract what you think some of that young talent would take to even up his contract.

That's what I think the GMs that look at this are going to do. The Leafs are not going to get a King's ransom in young talent return because of his contract - unless they eat some of it. There's no two 1sts and a 2nd coming back this time without some dollars going the other way.

I've defended Kessel every year but this one. All through the Seguin controversy years. He appears out of shape and lazy, except when he has the puck on his stick. He is essentially an offensive specialist, scorer and passer, nothing more, nothing less. The fact that he is pretty much doing neither right now makes him pretty close to useless at the moment. Unfortunately.
However, this is obviously an anomoly, so he should be more viewed over the tenure of his career here. That being said, the Leafs probably overpaid or had to overpaid to keep him. $6-7 million seems like a max for a gifted offensive player, who has no grit, defence or leadership to provide. I think we could probably get a decent return on him without taking back salary if they target teams desperate for scoring with ample cap space available. I mean look at what Carolina attempted in giving Semin $7 million.

 

[cw]

The Star reports a point by Boston tonight will officially eliminate the Leafs from the playoffs mathematically.

If that happens, look out. The team may stop making en effort ...  

If one stripped the 4 pts for the shootout wins this season (for comparison to prior seasons), if they go pointless in their last 11, they could arguably finish with effectively the 3rd worst pts win% in their 87 year NHL history.

Three months ago:
http://www.cbc.ca/m/touch/sports/nhl/story/1.2876468
Toronto is sitting just two points out of first place in the Atlantic Division. The Leafs have 41 points, trailing the division-leading Lightning, who have 43. They sit sixth in the Eastern Conference but are a mere three points behind the conference-leading Penguins.

Toronto is in good shape to earn a playoff spot, sitting first in the conference wild card race, seven points ahead of the second-place team, the Florida Panthers.

.661 pts win% over their first 31 games
(only 2 Leafs teams ever posted better pts win% over a season '35 (48 games) & '51 team (70 games))

.238 pts win% over their last 40 games

I can't recall seeing anything like that in Leafs history. It's a breathtaking collapse/change in fortunes.

 

[Kin]

Well, if he scores 70 but is on the ice for 100+ against, how much does that really help the team?

A great, great deal as no one player, no matter how bad defensively, is responsible for all or even a majority of the goals scored against the team while they're on the ice.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Well, if he scores 70 but is on the ice for 100+ against, how much does that really help the team?

A great, great deal as no one player, no matter how bad defensively, is responsible for all or even a majority of the goals scored against the team while they're on the ice.

FWIW, the very bottom of the barrel for +/- in the NHL today:

 

[Kin]

Well, if he scores 70 but is on the ice for 100+ against, how much does that really help the team?

A great, great deal as no one player, no matter how bad defensively, is responsible for all or even a majority of the goals scored against the team while they're on the ice.

FWIW, the very bottom of the barrel for +/- in the NHL today:

The point being what? Josh Gorges, who was widely regarded as being a very good defensive player before the season began and was a + player in 5 of his previous 6 seasons, easily has the worst +/- to games played of anyone on that list. Keith Yandle, a good player who's been a + player on good teams and has been a plus player since being traded, is right at the bottom too.

I mean, if your point is that +/- is meaningless then, yes, the bottom of this year's +/- list illustrates that pretty well.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Well, if he scores 70 but is on the ice for 100+ against, how much does that really help the team?

A great, great deal as no one player, no matter how bad defensively, is responsible for all or even a majority of the goals scored against the team while they're on the ice.

FWIW, the very bottom of the barrel for +/- in the NHL today:

AKA "you play a lot on a bad team" list

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Again, why Kessel can't do it all.

IPP = individual points percentage and is calculated by dividing the number of points a player has produced by the number of goals that were scored while the player was on the ice. This statistic tells us who is most involved in the teams offensive production when they are on the ice. (definition from MLHS)

From 2012-15 Kessel has an IPP of 78%.  This means that of all the goals that Kessel was on the ice for over the past 3 seasons (during 5 on 5 play) ? he had a point on 78% of them.  That's 16th among all NHL forwards with at least 2000 5v5 minutes.  For comparison, Crosby is at 81%.

Conversely, JVR is 119th at 69% and Bozak is 183rd out of 196 players at 60.4%.

What more can he do?  So he not only clearly drives the line offensively and is among the league leaders in that, he's supposed to carry them defensively too?  As a winger?

The expectations heaped on him continue to be ridiculous.

Link

It's not Kessel.  It's management's inability to surround him with a better roster.  Kessel doesn't NEED better talent to produce (he produced with Marc Savard to Matt Stajan to Tyler Bozak) - the team needs better talent to succeed.

 

[cw]

Well Bill Watters thinks the Leafs would get a an average pick a roster player with bad contract and would have to retain almost have of Kessls salary.. the senile old coot

I've been critical of Kessel and his value and that may be over the top to me.

He's paid as a top 10 NHLer but although he's sometimes a top 10 scorer, in my opinion, he isn't a top 10 NHLer. Ask yourself honestly, if you could pick any 10 players in the league for your team, would Kessel be on your list? Handily, my answer without even having to look is no - I don't even have to think about it as it's not that close for me. And I felt that way long before this season.

He's never received a vote for the Hart Trophy and he won't this season.
He's never been elected to the 1st or 2nd All Star team and he won't this season.
How could both those things be true and he be a top 10 NHL player?
Yep, it's just another subjective metric. But one more that doesn't add up for me.

In my opinion:

If they eat some of his contract - such that the net is his fair contract value, then they should get full pop for his talent value in prospects/picks.

If they don't eat some of his contract - such that the net is higher than his fair contract value, then they should get a discounted return on his value in prospects/picks to make up for that.

To eat a bunch of his contract such that the net is his fair contract value AND get a discounted return on his value in prospects/picks is double banging.

If they were to eat part of his contract such that the net is still above his fair value, that's the only condition that maybe some discounted return on his value in prospects/picks is appropriate.

A simpler way of looking at it might be:
Take what you think he's worth in young talent and then subtract what you think some of that young talent would take to even up his contract.

That's what I think the GMs that look at this are going to do. The Leafs are not going to get a King's ransom in young talent return because of his contract - unless they eat some of it. There's no two 1sts and a 2nd coming back this time without some dollars going the other way.

I've defended Kessel every year but this one. All through the Seguin controversy years. He appears out of shape and lazy, except when he has the puck on his stick. He is essentially an offensive specialist, scorer and passer, nothing more, nothing less. The fact that he is pretty much doing neither right now makes him pretty close to useless at the moment. Unfortunately.
However, this is obviously an anomoly, so he should be more viewed over the tenure of his career here. That being said, the Leafs probably overpaid or had to overpaid to keep him. $6-7 million seems like a max for a gifted offensive player, who has no grit, defence or leadership to provide. I think we could probably get a decent return on him without taking back salary if they target teams desperate for scoring with ample cap space available. I mean look at what Carolina attempted in giving Semin $7 million.

Semin's an interesting case because a lot of folks seem to bring up his deal as a bad deal. He's put up fairly similar numbers to Kessel and played a similar game.

    Semin    Kessel
GP    622      657
GPG  .379      .374
PPG  .812    .780
+/-    +69      -73 
(don't know how much I'd read into that +/- but I'd have to observe that Semin is typically near the top or in the top 1/3 in that stat on his rosters in Washington & Carolina while Kessel is typically near the bottom or in the bottom on his rosters in Boston (one exception in '09)  & Toronto)

A difference now is Semin just turned 31, suffering from some injuries this season and Kessel turns 28 in October (some shoulder injury as he arrived in Toronto). Being younger helps Kessel's contract worth.

Semin has 3 seasons left on his deal, ending when he's 34. Kessel has 7 years left on his deal, ending when he's 34.

Carolina reportedly tried to move Semin towards the deadline but found the trade market for Semin like the one for Mike Richards - no takers.

And this is what is scary about Kessel's contract for a GM: in 2-3 years, Phil could easily be playing at Semin's current level with a few seasons to go. I don't see NHL GMs falling over themselves, giving up the moon, trying to get their hands on this Kessel contract. They're right to be very cautious.

Because of that, I wouldn't be surprised to see Kessel wearing Blue & White to start 2015-16.

 

[Chris]

Well, if he scores 70 but is on the ice for 100+ against, how much does that really help the team?

A great, great deal as no one player, no matter how bad defensively, is responsible for all or even a majority of the goals scored against the team while they're on the ice.

Gotcha, I guess I had forgotten that the idea wasn't to outscore your opponents, but rather to out-Corsi and out-Fenwick them.

Where is the stat the proves that Kessel isn't largely responsible for many or most of the goals scored when he is on the ice?

 

[Kin]

Gotcha, I guess I had forgotten that the idea wasn't to outscore your opponents, but rather to out-Corsi and out-Fenwick them.

Where is the stat the proves that Kessel isn't largely responsible for many or most of the goals scored when he is on the ice?

It's just common sense and, quite frankly, holds stronger to the nonsense of your faith in +/- than it does to any rational, evidence based discussion. Bozak is a -31, JVR is a -29. Gardiner, Phaneuf, Polak, Rielly and Franson were a combined -74. If +/- is a reflection of a player's individual defensive skill then everyone that Kessel has played significant time with this season is a bad defensive player. If there are 5 bad defensive players on the ice, no one of them is going to be the sole problem with the team's defense and that's before you say anything about the quality of the goaltending.

But more than that it's just readily apparent to anyone who's watching the games. If you think JVR and Bozak are playing good defensive hockey this year then you really need to get your eyesight checked.

 

[Bullfrog]

In my opinion:

If they eat some of his contract - such that the net is his fair contract value, then they should get full pop for his talent value in prospects/picks.

If they don't eat some of his contract - such that the net is higher than his fair contract value, then they should get a discounted return on his value in prospects/picks to make up for that.

What do you think is a fair contract value for Kessel? (in other words, how much needs to be retained?)

 

[L K]

When Boston beats Buffalo tonight the Leafs will officially be eliminated from the playoffs.

 

[L K]

In my opinion:

If they eat some of his contract - such that the net is his fair contract value, then they should get full pop for his talent value in prospects/picks.

If they don't eat some of his contract - such that the net is higher than his fair contract value, then they should get a discounted return on his value in prospects/picks to make up for that.

What do you think is a fair contract value for Kessel? (in other words, how much needs to be retained?)

50% and he's probably worth at best a pick, and mediocre roster player.

 

[Kin]

50% and he's probably worth at best a pick, and mediocre roster player.

Why would a mediocre roster player be worth a pick and a mediocre roster player? It's not like they're trading Richard Panik here.

 

[L K]

50% and he's probably worth at best a pick, and mediocre roster player.

Why would a mediocre roster player be worth a pick and a mediocre roster player? It's not like they're trading Richard Panik here.

Sorry, I meant a mediocre roster player with a substantial cap hit.

Something like David Clarkson + 5th round pick for Phil Kessel + 50% salary retention.