Nik the Trik said:
cw said:
I happen to cite something specific that happened in 2009 as an example.
An example of something that all subsequent seasons and data refutes. You knew there was more data on which to judge Kessel from a "how often does he score against playoff teams vs. non-playoff teams" and you chose to cite one season, six years ago, that runs contrary to what happened since. Again, transparent and narrow. Kessel has not feasted exclusively on bad teams and people saw through your attempt to paint that picture.
You've lost any and all sense of objectivity on this one. I don't know why that is and I don't know what point you're trying to make with this campaign against the "Kessel is a top 10 player" straw man but I'll at least call it what it is.
"An example of something that all subsequent seasons and data refutes."
Once again, pure nonsense.
Kessel goal scoring since he's been in Toronto
Against playoff teams .365 gpg
Against non playoff teams .474 gpg
Phil experiences about a 24% drop off in goal scoring when he faces playoff teams in Toronto. That's an improvement over his Boston results but still a significant difference.
So your claim that the Boston 2009 goal scoring data was "An example of something that all subsequent seasons and data refutes." is bogus. Phil came up to Toronto and continued to struggle to score against playoff teams. I didn't think that was a big surprise or something all that notable. I thought for most knowledgeable hockey observers it was kind of obvious.
Now, one could easily say "poor Phil, scoring against better teams is tougher". And to some extent that is true and to be expected.
Let's look at a couple of other goal scorers in the same rental district and how they do:
Stamkos
Against playoff teams .620 gpg
Against non playoff teams .618 gpg
Stamkos goal scoring against playoff teams is effectively the same as against non playoff teams over the same 2010-2015 period
Ovechkin
Against playoff teams .565 gpg
Against non playoff teams .601 gpg
Ovechkin experiences about a 6% goal scoring drop against playoff teams
That's a heck of a lot more data than one season. It's not an anomaly. The difference is material. Phil has more trouble scoring against playoff teams than the other top goal scoring guys in his rent district do. He may be making the same sort of dough but Kessel is not in the same class as guys like this. His soft style is more prone to disappear when the going gets tough and to some extent, the data shows it has.
But you shouldn't need the data. All you have to do is watch the guy play. I looked up the data for this post but I didn't need to. I knew what I was going to find. He's a peripheral goal scorer (scores from the outside) - always has been.
In 2009, the allegation was made that Kessel wouldn't be able to score without Savard. In response to that concern, I looked at all of his Boston goals and posted about it on this site in 2009 with the conclusion that Kessel would not need Savard to score because of how he scored. Shame on me for getting acquainted with what Kessel did in Boston and commenting on it.
In my opinion, this looks fairly pertinent to where we find ourselves today.
Last year:
The 2013-14 Maple Leafs after 60 games
The current projected playoff cut-off mark, based on the points pace of the final wildcard team, is 90.5 points. The Leafs, currently on a 96-point pace, will need 21 points out of their remaining 22 games. A 10-11-1 or 9-10-3 record is likely all the Leafs will need to ensure their second consecutive playoff appearance in April.
A furious race to the finish line starts February 27 against the New York Islanders.
Phil had about 67 points in those first 61 games - over a ppg per game, .52 gpg. What does he do in his final 21 games? 13 pts, .24gpg. Now goaltending and team defence slipped so there was more than one thing going on - it's a team sport, etc.
This year, when I looked at a snap shot a few weeks back, goaltending save% was fairly similar before and after the collapse. So was the PK% and GAA. The thing that had collapsed starting in mid December was goal scoring and the PP.
So how did Phil do?
http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8473548&view=splits&season=20142015&gameType=2
GP Goals Points
Oct-Dec 38 18 41
Jan-Mar 33 6 13
5 power play goals in fall of 2014 vs 2 power play goals in 2015
It's a team sport but "the data" suggests this guy has something to do with where we find ourselves today.
I can accept that he's skilled and soft and that's part of the problem we always knew he had. I can't accept the quitting on his team and the fans. That's what has me upset with him.