Tank Nation UNITE!!!

[Chris]

I'll agree with anybody who wants to criticize Phil's play over the last 30-40 games, but watching all of last season I never once had the feeling that Phil quit on the team in the 2nd half. Last season the JVR-Bozak-Kessel trio were all in the top-11 among forwards in ice-time per game. The only other team who had more than 1 forward in the top-17 was Vancouver, who also had their trio of Sedin-Sedin-Kesler there. Vancouver and the Leafs were also by far the two teams to use their 4th lines the least last season. At even-strength Kessel actually led all forwards in the league in ice-time. Bozak was 3rd, JVR 6th.  Not even Vancouver's guys had that much ice-time at even-strength, as they were ranked 13th, 17th, and 18th.

Everybody paying attention to the team knew that Randy was overplaying those guys, and that it was going to lead to them being fatigued. They were even being given more and more practices off to try and avoid that, but it obviously didn't work. Combine that workload with the condensed schedule due to the Olympics and the fact that Kessel and JVR played a lot at the Olympics as well, it's really no surprise that those guys had nothing left in the tank, particularly after February.

I tend to agree with this assessment. I didn't watch as many games last season, but from the ones I saw, I never had the feeling that Kessel (or others) had "quit". This year is very different in that regard. And it's not just Kessel, I'd lump JVR and Bozak into that category, though to my eyes, the change in Kessel is most obvious.

I think Kessel wants out, and maybe he'll be willing to open up his list of acceptable teams to accomplish that. If not, it may be difficult to make a good deal.

 

[cw]

Last year: The 2013-14 Maple Leafs after 60 games
The current projected playoff cut-off mark, based on the points pace of the final wildcard team, is 90.5 points. The Leafs, currently on a 96-point pace, will  need 21 points out of their remaining 22 games. A 10-11-1 or 9-10-3 record is likely all the Leafs will need to ensure their second consecutive playoff appearance in April.

A furious race to the finish line starts February 27 against the New York Islanders.

Phil had about 67 points in those first 61 games - over a ppg per game, .52 gpg. What does he do in his final 21 games? 13 pts, .24gpg. Now goaltending and team defence slipped so there was more than one thing going on - it's a team sport, etc.

I'll agree with anybody who wants to criticize Phil's play over the last 30-40 games, but watching all of last season I never once had the feeling that Phil quit on the team in the 2nd half. Last season the JVR-Bozak-Kessel trio were all in the top-11 among forwards in ice-time per game. The only other team who had more than 1 forward in the top-17 was Vancouver, who also had their trio of Sedin-Sedin-Kesler there. Vancouver and the Leafs were also by far the two teams to use their 4th lines the least last season. At even-strength Kessel actually led all forwards in the league in ice-time. Bozak was 3rd, JVR 6th.  Not even Vancouver's guys had that much ice-time at even-strength, as they were ranked 13th, 17th, and 18th.

Everybody paying attention to the team knew that Randy was overplaying those guys, and that it was going to lead to them being fatigued. They were even being given more and more practices off to try and avoid that, but it obviously didn't work. Combine that workload with the condensed schedule due to the Olympics and the fact that Kessel and JVR played a lot at the Olympics as well, it's really no surprise that those guys had nothing left in the tank, particularly after February.

I didn't get on Phil's case in a big way last year. I don't think I ever have in a big way until now. I wasn't keen on the deal Burke did to get him but that was more of a criticism of Burke and how the team should be built. Kessel was what he was and I was kind of ok with that and his flaws. I defended that he'd score without Savard, etc.

What I'm really upset about is the last 30-40 games. Like many long term Leafs fans, I think I've put up with a fair amount of crap over the last 50 years. But I will not see a player getting paid top bucks in the league quit on this team and say nothing. That's not in the cards. I think that behavior is just offensive.

If MLSE or anyone else thinks I'm going to continue to blindly tune in to continue to witness and support garbage behavior like that, they're dreamin'. I walked away from the Raptors and Jays for less. I am livid about this.

 

[Kin]

He's not a "complete" hockey player.

Since coming to Toronto, Kessel's
assists per game is around 40th.
ppg is 21st
his goal scoring per game is around 10th

Well, it's nice to see you won't miss any ridiculous attempt at misdirection in an attempt to cast him in a worse light than deserved. Kessel came to Toronto at 22. He's grown since then. When GM's negotiate contracts they're going to deal with the player they are at the moment. In the three seasons prior to Kessel signing his contract he was 9th in the entire league in points per 60 minutes behind only Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos, Hall, Neal, Giroux, Spezza and Backstrom. Ahead of notable penalty killers like Ovechkin, Kane, Tavares and Joe Thornton.

Oh, but it's all that PP time, right? Yup. Five on Five points per 60 and Kessel plummets all the way 10th in that span. This done, again, with the still incredibly relevant and fundamental truth that Kessel was the only one-man band in that grouping. You can clamp your hands over your ears and scream that you can't hear that all you want but it's true.

And I said "complete offensive player". You might have missed how to honestly quote someone while you were taking all of that high school math.

Kessel's goals per 60 minutes ranks 59th this season.

He's having a down year. Kudos on unearthing that scoop.

His forte is as a goal scorer.

Over the last 4 years he's produced at a 43 assist per 82 game clip. If goal scoring is his forte, he's got a heck of a fallback.

In Krejki and Bergeron, they give up .13-.15ppg to Kessel but they provide much superior play in the other two zones and as such, they're a much better bang for their cap buck.

Provided that buck is heavily invested in who was scoring more 5 years ago, sure.

I think measuring a players effectiveness as a function of ice time as opposed to games played is a better and more precise measure. When you do that with Kessel, he falls to closer to where he really is among the NHL talent. He's nowhere close to a top 10 NHLer, never has been and never will be - even in his forte of goal scoring.

Again, flat out untrue. In the three years prior to signing his contract he was 9th in the league in goals per 60 minutes, 9th in points per 60 minutes. Doing that, by the way, with linemates like Tyler Bozak who ranked 126th in that span and JVR who ranked 118th.

And while measuring scoring as a function of ice time is a valuable measurement, one Kessel excelled in, it's also worth noting that most GM's will still value durability. Kessel played the most games of that top 10 I referenced earlier, playing as many as 70 more games than some of them. All of that scoring talent doesn't count for much in a suit in the press box.

 

[cw]

Again, flat out untrue. In the three years prior to signing his contract he was 9th in the league in goals per 60 minutes, 9th in points per 60 minutes.

Not in the stats I've seen.

Have you got a link?

 

[Kin]

Not in the stats I've seen.

Have you got a link?

Here you go

 

[L K]

Not in the stats I've seen.

Have you got a link?

Here you go

Just to be clear, he technically sits at 11th in Goals/60 minutes behind 37 games of Hertl and 97 games from Nyquist.  He's also 17th in primary assists/60 minutes (again with a bunch of guys playing ~100 games or less ahead of him)

 

[Kin]

Just to be clear, he technically sits at 11th in Goals/60 minutes behind 37 games of Hertl and 97 games from Nyquist.  He's also 17th in primary assists/60 minutes (again with a bunch of guys playing ~100 games or less ahead of him)

Yeah, I initially used a 500 minute threshold to get rid of the scragglers but then I ditched the guys who didn't play a full three seasons.

 

[cw]

Again, flat out untrue. In the three years prior to signing his contract he was 9th in the league in goals per 60 minutes, 9th in points per 60 minutes.

Using the link you provided, he was
NHL Player Stats/Ratings 2010-13
21st in goals/60 minutes
19th in pts/60 minutes
"In the three years prior to signing his contract"

As well, those numbers are flawed and skew the results.

1. They include short handed ice time which Kessel doesn't play and therefore, penalize the players who kill penalities in goals/point per 60 minutes - pushing them down the ranking

2. They mix power play and even strength ice time, giving them equal treatment. Again, that skews the results towards Kessel because he gets a lot of PP ice time.

What I can safely say from that is that Phil Kessel was well below  the 21st best goal scorer and 19th best point producer in the three years before he signed his big contract in Oct 2013.

Now it looks like you tried to cherry pick Phil's best three years ever including 2013-14 (a year after his contract was signed) but even there his goals/60 isn't 9th, it's 11-14th and those numbers suffer from the same flaws I outlined above. They overstate his ranking against his peers.

He's not really a top 10 goal scorer or point producer - even when we try to cherry pick his most favorable stats.

As for the nonsense about his linemates, again, there's some more cherry pickin' going on there. In the three most favorable seasons you cherry picked for Phil (2011-12 to 2013-14, the Leafs averaged 10th in goals per game - they were an above average team offensively. So they were not dragging Phil down tons.

 

[Kin]

"In the three years prior to signing his contract"

If it makes you feel better deep down in your pedantic heart, feel free to substitute "the three years before his contract began".

1. They include short handed ice time which Kessel doesn't play and therefore, penalize the players who kill penalities in goals/point per 60 minutes - pushing them down the ranking

It's very easy to use that page to just get 5 on 5 numbers(here, I did it for you) and, again, in the time frame provided Kessel ranks 9th in points per 60 minutes among players who played those three seasons.

Now it looks like you tried to cherry pick Phil's best three years ever including 2013-14 (a year after his contract was signed) but even there his goals/60 isn't 9th, it's 11th and those numbers suffer from the same flaws I outlined above. They overstate his ranking against his peers.

Again, I provided his 5 on 5 ranking in the same time frame and the difference between 11th and 9th is because you're including guys who didn't actually play all three seasons. Tomas Hertl only played 37 games in that time frame.

He's not really a top 10 goal scorer or point producer - even when we try to cherry pick his most favorable stats.

Ah yes, the logical leaps and bounds I had to arrive at to get that most obscure and carefully selected time frame "his last three full seasons".

As for the nonsense about his linemates, again, there's some more cherry pickin' going on there. In the three most favorable seasons you cherry picked for Phil (2011-12 to 2013-14, the Leafs averaged 10th in goals per game - they were an above average team offensively. So they were not dragging Phil down tons.

"And as for the stuff about his linemates, let me give you a statistic that isn't about his linemates"

C'mon, be more full of it.

 

[cw]

As for the nonsense about his linemates, again, there's some more cherry pickin' going on there. In the three most favorable seasons you cherry picked for Phil (2011-12 to 2013-14, the Leafs averaged 10th in goals per game - they were an above average team offensively. So they were not dragging Phil down tons.

"And as for the stuff about his linemates, let me give you a statistic that isn't about his linemates"

C'mon, be more full of it.

You cherry picked JvR's season in Philly. Last two full seasons in Toronto, JvR is 54th in G/60 and 69th in pts/60 on Kessel's line. Lupul, who was Kessel's linemate in 2011-12 was 61st in g/60 and 19th in pts/60 in 2011-12.

If those guys are well inside the top 90, they're roughly producing first line scoring results. - not a major boat anchor.

Bozak over his last two seasons crawls up to 72nd or so in pts/60 and I'd agree he's suspect some. But Stamkos has guys that fall to 51st and 102nd on that same list, etc. You're not going to get 30 teams with 3 guys in the top 90.

The Leafs were 7th in league scoring during the period you selected:
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?disp=1&db=201114&sit=all&sort=GF&sortdir=DESC
The Leafs had three dmen in the top 54 and four in the top 76 scoring dmen during that time period.
They were not a gigantic boat anchor on Kessel's scoring. They were above average.

 

[Kin]

You cherry picked JvR's season in Philly. Last two full seasons in Toronto, JvR is 54th in G/60 and 69th in pts/60 on Kessel's line. Lupul, who was Kessel's linemate in 2011-12 was 61st in g/60 and 19th in pts/60 in 2011-12.

Huh, so both guys saw significant spikes in their scoring rates while playing with Kessel then?

 

[cw]

You cherry picked JvR's season in Philly. Last two full seasons in Toronto, JvR is 54th in G/60 and 69th in pts/60 on Kessel's line. Lupul, who was Kessel's linemate in 2011-12 was 61st in g/60 and 19th in pts/60 in 2011-12.

Huh, so both guys saw significant spikes in their scoring rates while playing with Kessel then?

They both saw dramatic increases in PP and scoring ice time over what they'd been recently getting in Anaheim and Philly. So that combined with playing with Kessel on the #1 scoring line helped them.

And them replacing Kulemin/Crabb/whoever arguably helped Kessel's scoring.

 

[Kin]

And them replacing Kulemin/Crabb/whoever arguably helped Kessel's scoring.

Man, just imagine what sort of numbers he could put up with a legit #1 centre or with a decent secondary scoring line.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Just going to leave this here:

@CorsiHL 

Last 4 years at 5v5...

Kessel + Bozak together: 1.77 P/60 (3123 minutes)

Kessel w/o Bozak: 2.15 P/60 (1225 minutes)

Bozak w/o Kessel: 0.85 P/60 (496 minutes)

 

[rdowdall]

Can we go back to blaming Colton Orr and Frazer Maclaren?  Not as many numbers to deal with.

 

[cw]

And them replacing Kulemin/Crabb/whoever arguably helped Kessel's scoring.

Man, just imagine what sort of numbers he could put up with a legit #1 centre or with a decent secondary scoring line.

But you can go around the league and pose that.

How many times have we heard about Crosby's wingers?

If Bozak had Stamkos/Crosby/Malkin/Perry on his line, would he put up more points than he has with Kessel? I suspect he would because they are better offensive players and they don't fade as much against tougher playoff teams. His +/- would probably improve as well.

 

[cw]

https://twitter.com/tsnmikehogan/status/576573862671962112

 

[Al14]

https://twitter.com/tsnmikehogan/status/576573862671962112

Absolutely horendous!  But, at the same time, the whole team has been really, really bad!

 

[cw]

The anatomy of a collapse: Why are the Leafs so bad?
If you look back at the Leafs since the start of last season, the most alarming change in this nosedive has been their inability to score.

And, more specifically, Phil Kessel?s inability to score.

During the past 40 games, the Leafs have fallen off by about a goal a game, dropping to a Buffalo-like 1.9 goals per 60 minutes. Statistically speaking, they haven?t been shooting less or getting fewer scoring chances; they?ve simply received very little offence from their top players.

In the 113 games from the start of 2013-14 to the beginning of the collapse, Toronto?s top line of Kessel, Tyler Bozak and James van Riemsdyk scored a combined 128 goals, or 1.13 a game.

In the 40 games since, that line has only 0.62 goals a game, which means that trio has accounted for half of the Leafs lost offence despite continuing to get top unit power-play duty.

Kessel alone has fallen from a 39-goal pace to a 14-goal one, a crippling drop-off, much of which has been at even strength.

He has been on the ice for only 12 five-on-five goals in the past 40 games (0.3 a game), down from 0.8 a game.

The $10 million dollar man is 'impressing' Mirtle ...

The one thing I'd comment on the goaltending was when I looked a while ago, the save%s roughly matched before and after the slump started. (I think they were .907 or so).

I think the scoring slump happened first (this time).

 

[Kin]

But you can go around the league and pose that.

Not really. You don't have to wonder what Patrick Kane would look like if he had other all-stars on his team. You don't have to wonder about Ovechkin or Corey Perry or Joe Pavelski having an ok centre.

How many times have we heard about Crosby's wingers?

For the three years in question, the 4 forwards Crosby played the most 5 on 5 time with were Canadian Olympian Chris Kunitz, Pascal Dupuis, James "Better than Kessel" Neal and Evgeni Malkin. On the power play Crosby frequently plays with Kunitz and Malkin.

Seriously, dive into Bozak's offensive numbers without Kessel sometime.

If Bozak had Stamkos/Crosby/Malkin/Perry on his line, would he put up more points than he has with Kessel? I suspect he would because they are better offensive players and they don't fade as much against tougher playoff teams. His +/- would probably improve as well.

Over the last four years so including Kessel's lousy year this year, Kessel and Perry have virtually identical points per 60(2.22 to 2.21) at 5 on 5 and Kessel having a significant edge in all situations(2.84 to 2.62) despite Kessel playing with Bozak and Perry with Getzlaf.

But as to the other three, yes, those three are better players than Kessel.