Tank Nation UNITE!!!

[ZBBM]

I was commenting that it wasn't a SHG as the reason why I could not find the clip to review it when searching for SHG's scored against the Leafs recently - not because I needed to 'watch the games'.

As Deebo said, Bonino was already a couple strides ahead of Kessel by the time he got the puck (and no one else caught him either) and he fed it to Dorsett who had changed midway through the PK to get on the ice.

Wasn't implying any insult to you, was just trying to explain the play slapshot was referring to.

EDIT: @ slapshot ? I think there's a legitimate argument about why Bonino was able to pull away from Kessel (starting ahead of him, granted) but just to add here my recollection is that the Leafs had possession in the offensive zone pretty much the whole PP except right at the end, so I would disagree with you about Kessel's being selfish in staying out the whole 2 minutes ... the forwards didn't really have the chance to change IIRC.

 

[Kin]

So your claim that the Boston 2009 goal scoring data was "An example of something that all subsequent seasons and data refutes." is bogus.

No, because that's not fundamentally the argument you're making. You're saying that there's something in Phil Kessel intrinsically, physical or mentally, that makes him less likely to score against playoff teams than he is against non-playoff teams. Despite that you've been shown that there are entire seasons where that's not true and it is a stone cold fact that Kessel's goal scoring rate in the playoffs is higher than it is in the regular season. How could that be? Do games get less physical in the playoffs? Do teams take it easier on Phil in the playoffs?

If what you were putting forth had truth to it it would not be something that were intermittently true from year to year varying in extremes. Unless your argument is that Kessel fundamentally changes the "soft style" he plays the years where he scores a roughly even percentage or his goals against playoff teams and when the playoff roles around he again fundamentally shifts his game what the data shows on a year by year basis is that the distribution of Kessel's goals per game is random and can't be attributed to any one factor or element of his game.

That's a heck of a lot more data than one season. It's not an anomaly. The difference is material. Phil has more trouble scoring against playoff teams than the other top goal scoring guys in his rent district do. He may be making the same sort of dough but Kessel is not in the same class as guys like this.

Nobody here has ever claimed that Kessel is as good a player as Ovechkin or Stamkos and, again, Kessel is not "in their rent district". Ovechkin's cap hit is almost 20% higher than Kessel's. There's talk that when Stamkos signs his UFA deal it could be 50% higher than Kessel's. You're not comparing Kessel to his equivalents, you're comparing him to the two best goal scorers in the league and honestly, it's pretty easy to see through why someone with an axe to grind here would "randomly" select those two players to compare Kessel to.

 

[TML fan]

I was commenting that it wasn't a SHG as the reason why I could not find the clip to review it when searching for SHG's scored against the Leafs recently - not because I needed to 'watch the games'.

As Deebo said, Bonino was already a couple strides ahead of Kessel by the time he got the puck (and no one else caught him either) and he fed it to Dorsett who had changed midway through the PK to get on the ice.

Wasn't implying any insult to you, was just trying to explain the play slapshot was referring to.

EDIT: @ slapshot ? I think there's a legitimate argument about why Bonino was able to pull away from Kessel (starting ahead of him, granted) but just to add here my recollection is that the Leafs had possession in the offensive zone pretty much the whole PP except right at the end, so I would disagree with you about Kessel's being selfish in staying out the whole 2 minutes ... the forwards didn't really have the chance to change IIRC.

Their bench was right next to the offensive zone. They definitely could have made a change.

 

[Bullfrog]

The GMs will settle this after the season is over.

If Kessel isn't over paid and as good as some maintain, the GMs will be falling over themselves trying to get their mitts on him and offering a Kings ransom.

Quite frankly, a few GMs had the space to have done that at the deadline if they really wanted him.

I don't think Phil and his contract are going to draw the stampede of GMs and top draft picks/prospects some are hoping for. We'll find out soon enough.

I'm not an expert in strawmenism by any means, but that seems like a pretty weak argument to prove your opinion on his worth. If he's not traded at all, does that prove you're correct and that he's not worth much to other GMs?

Kessel's an elite goal-scorer in this league and is compensated commensurately. I don't think he's overpaid at all given his talent level, the timing of his deal (UFA, new CBA, league economics), and his perceived flaws.

If he is somewhat overpaid, it surely can't be by much at all.

 

[Kin]

Kessel's contract is not paying him what a top 10 player in this league will sign for under the existing CBA. There's just no way around that.

Starting next season when Toews & Kane's new contracts begin, and if you adjust for the cap circumventing deals by only looking at the first 8 years of Weber, Parise,and Suter's deals, Kessel has the 15th highest cap hit in the league. For a guy that finished top-10 in scoring 3 seasons in a row that doesn't seem out of line to me. Especially when you consider that guys like Semin, Spezza, Ryan, Stastny, and the Sedin's are all in the $7-8mil range.

Sure and then, as I said, once you factor in the RFA guys or guys like Keith who would certainly get more than Kessel his cap hit probably pegs him as a top 25 or top 30 guy at best.

If someone were seriously trying to make the case that Kessel were overpaid, they wouldn't be comparing them to someone like Ovechkin they would be comparing them to the guys on your list. When Semin signed his 7 million dollar contract he was coming off three seasons where he scored 62 goals and 152 points in 186 games playing on teams with Nik Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin, Eric Staal and so on. He never would have been an opposing team's primary concern.

Kessel, as a UFA, would have been coming off three seasons where he scored 94 goals and 214 points in 212 games while constantly being the other team's primary concern. The idea that Kessel wouldn't be "worth" more than Semin is ridiculous.

 

[mr grieves]

I think the arguments that Kessel's got the contract he should have -- given when he signed, what he's done, etc. -- are absolutely right. But I doubt they'll matter much if the Leafs try to move him, especially if he doesn't rebound with some inspired play before that deal happens. How often do stars in bad situations get moved for good value? I'm only coming up with all the bad trades.

 

[Stickytape]

2 more points for Columbus after a shoot out win over Edmonton. They're 6 points ahead of the Leafs with a game in hand.

 

[Tigger]

If Kessel isn't over paid and as good as some maintain, the GMs will be falling over themselves trying to get their mitts on him and offering a Kings ransom.

Quite frankly, a few GMs had the space to have done that at the deadline if they really wanted him.

I don't think Phil and his contract are going to draw the stampede of GMs and top draft picks/prospects some are hoping for. We'll find out soon enough.

Players, especially talented players, with term just don't seem to be moving at the deadline anymore, if anything Phil was always going to be a draft deal in the making. You could be right, that the pool of interested parties is shrinking, that doesn't deny that a hockey deal could get done. Nonis or other such place card could make it happen, but like the Leafs require currently, he/they may have to work for it.

 

[cw]

So your claim that the Boston 2009 goal scoring data was "An example of something that all subsequent seasons and data refutes." is bogus.

No, because that's not fundamentally the argument you're making.

That was your straw man - not mine. And "all subsequent seasons and data refutes" remain a bogus, untrue claim.

In his time in Toronto, Kessel's goal scoring dipped 24% against playoff teams. Those are the blunt statistics. Trying to pretend they don't exist won't make them go away.

You're saying that there's something in Phil Kessel intrinsically, physical or mentally, that makes him less likely to score against playoff teams than he is against non-playoff teams. Despite that you've been shown that there are entire seasons where that's not true and it is a stone cold fact that Kessel's goal scoring rate in the playoffs is higher than it is in the regular season. How could that be? Do games get less physical in the playoffs? Do teams take it easier on Phil in the playoffs?

As I recall, at least one of those Boston playoff goals was an empty netter. I'm not going to get my panties in a knot over a 3% cherry picking of data. The sampling of that data is too small to derive much conclusion. Probably better described as an anomaly. Folks with high school math can probably appreciate that.

If what you were putting forth had truth to it it would not be something that were intermittently true from year to year varying in extremes. Unless your argument is that Kessel fundamentally changes the "soft style" he plays the years where he scores a roughly even percentage or his goals against playoff teams and when the playoff roles around he again fundamentally shifts his game what the data shows on a year by year basis is that the distribution of Kessel's goals per game is random and can't be attributed to any one factor or element of his game.

Over his 222 games in Boston, Kessel struggled to score against playoff teams.

Over his 435 games in Toronto, Kessel struggled to score against playoff teams.

That's a BIG hunk of data/games in two different cities with four different NHL coaches and a whole bunch of different players, with neither club horrific offensively, to demonstrate an overall pattern of concern.

And we've also seen Kessel's scoring disappear in games down the stretch last season and when they tailed off this season.

There's a lot of data to suggest there's some kind of a problem here with Phil.

That's a heck of a lot more data than one season. It's not an anomaly. The difference is material. Phil has more trouble scoring against playoff teams than the other top goal scoring guys in his rent district do. He may be making the same sort of dough but Kessel is not in the same class as guys like this.

Nobody here has ever claimed that Kessel is as good a player as Ovechkin or Stamkos and, again, Kessel is not "in their rent district". Ovechkin's cap hit is almost 20% higher than Kessel's. There's talk that when Stamkos signs his UFA deal it could be 50% higher than Kessel's. You're not comparing Kessel to his equivalents, you're comparing him to the two best goal scorers in the league and honestly, it's pretty easy to see through why someone with an axe to grind here would "randomly" select those two players to compare Kessel to.

If you'd really researched the issue, you'd know that far more than two players have exhibited better numbers than Kessel in this area. Try for example, all the top goals per game scorers between 2010 and 2015 (Phil's time in Toronto):
Steven Stamkos
Alexander Ovechkin
Corey Perry
Sidney Crosby
Evgeni Malkin
Rick Nash
Max Pacioretty
John Tavares
Jeff Carter
James Neal

Sadly Phil is top four in how he's being paid as a goal scorer among that group but he isn't quite top 10 in goals per game among that group between 2010-2015 (Phil's time in Toronto).

Only three of those guys are making more money than Phil. Yet all of them do better than Phil scoring against playoff teams. If Phil is such hot stuff and so deserving of his $64 mil, why do all those guys do better than Phil in that stat?

Just maybe, Phil isn't quite as good of a goal scorer when his team really needs him as many thought.

On Dec 18th, 2014, when his team began it's slide, in the 20 games that followed, super Phil could only muster 3 goals. He's tore up the league with 7 goals in his last 40 games.

And that's the bigger issue for me in all of this after watching Phil play some of these games with little effort: he quit on his team.

That bears repeating: they paid Phil $10 mil this season to quit on his team.

 

[Kin]

That was your straw man - not mine. And "all subsequent seasons and data refutes" remain a bogus, untrue claim.

It's absolutely, 100% true because the claim you're making is not "Kessel's career goal scoring numbers are worse against playoff teams", the claim you made was:

If you keep him to the outside and play him physically - make him battle for the puck - which he often won't do, he can be shut down fairly easily.

You are saying that there is a fundamental deficiency in Kessel's game that certain teams can exploit and render him ineffective. And the data does refute that because this quality of Kessel's you say is an inherent weakness in his game disappears for whole seasons at a time and it disappears whenever Kessel is in the playoffs and it disappeared when Kessel played in the Olympics last year.

You are arguing that something is consistently flawed with Kessel's game and the numbers irrefutably show that it is something that is, at best, intermittently true. If what you were saying were true, it wouldn't just vanish for years at a time. The numbers back that up, you're wrong.

If you'd really researched the issue, you'd know that far more than two players have exhibited better numbers than Kessel in this area.

I didn't say that those were the only two. I pointed out how transparently desperate you were getting to paint Kessel in the worst possible light to compare him to the two best goal scorers in the game who nobody ever said Kessel was the equal of in any respect and who he was not being paid like.

Sadly Phil is top four in how he's being paid as a goal scorer among that group but he isn't quite top 10 in goals per game among that group between 2010-2015 (Phil's time in Toronto).

Meaningless gibberish. Phil Kessel isn't being paid "as a goal scorer", he's being paid as a hockey player. His entire game was considered when he was negotiating his contract and the fact that he's emerged as one of the best set-up men in the league was a pretty big part of that.

In the previous three seasons Kessel ranked 4th in the league in goals scored, 12th in assists. He was paid as the complete offensive hockey player he's become. Nobody would put up those numbers, against anyone, if they were easily shut down.

Only three of those guys are making more money than Phil. Yet all of them do better than Phil scoring against playoff teams. If Phil is such hot stuff and so deserving of his $64 mil, why do all those guys do better than Phil in that stat?

Because in the 75 years since you've been in your crypt the NHL has learned to also value the assist? Because almost all of those guys are greatly assisted in their goal scoring efforts by the fact that when they play good teams they're not the only half-way decent goalscorer on their teams?

Again we come back to you being just transparently wrong-headed in the way you evaluate players relative to their salaries. Are you seriously asking why John Tavares doesn't make as much as Kessel? Do you understand what restricted free agency is? Do you appreciate that James Neal was playing with an elite offensive centre for most of that time and in Nashville has been exposed as a fairly ordinary player?

See, the thing is I know you know those things. I know that in another circumstance you would be reasonable enough to factor them into the matter of offensive production. However it has become glaringly obvious that you've backburned any semblance or even pretense at rationality or objectivity here in favour of the misguided crusade you're on against the legions of imaginary Leafs fans who you think believe Kessel is as good as Ovechkin or Crosby despite not being paid close to what they are. 

 

[Boston Leaf]

Good on Columbus  ;D..How about a Kessel free day? Let's discuss the future of say Peter Holland for a change of pace??  :-\..Oh well just a thought

 

[Rebel_1812]

No, because that's not fundamentally the argument you're making.

Typical Nik to argue what your arguing about.

 

[freer]

Good on Columbus  ;D..How about a Kessel free day? Let's discuss the future of say Peter Holland for a change of pace??  :-\..Oh well just a thought

He will be a good second or third line center. I like the way he plays. I see a possible 20 + goal season in his near future.

 

[Boston Leaf]

Good on Columbus  ;D..How about a Kessel free day? Let's discuss the future of say Peter Holland for a change of pace??  :-\..Oh well just a thought

He will be a good second or third line center. I like the way he plays. I see a possible 20 + goal season in his near future.

Depending on what happens with Bozak and Kadri he will probaly be a #2 next year which for now I am good with

 

[cw]

That was your straw man - not mine. And "all subsequent seasons and data refutes" remain a bogus, untrue claim.

It's absolutely, 100% true .

This is what you claimed:

I happen to cite something specific that happened in 2009 as an example.

An example of something that all subsequent seasons and data refutes. You knew there was more data on which to judge Kessel from a "how often does he score against playoff teams vs. non-playoff teams" and you chose to cite one season, six years ago, that runs contrary to what happened since.

All subsequent data does not refute it. As he had in Boston, the data also shows in Toronto, Kessel continued to experience a significant goal scoring drop off (24%, more than the other top goal scorers) against playoff teams.

And it's kind of got worse and chronic. Over the last three seasons, his goal scoring per game against playoff teams is around .31 while .51 against non playoff teams - about a 40% drop off each season.

I've checked through the other top goal scorers and you don't see this pattern with them - nothing this big. It's gone on for too many years now to try to ignore it because it got noticed in Boston and it's still going on and slipping backwards towards his Boston extremes. It keeps happening.

I think it's pertinent because Kessel along with our Leafs keeps hitting the wall offensively when the Leafs go into a tailspin that takes them out of the playoffs each season.

 

[Bullfrog]

Good on Columbus  ;D..How about a Kessel free day? Let's discuss the future of say Peter Holland for a change of pace??  :-\..Oh well just a thought

He will be a good second or third line center. I like the way he plays. I see a possible 20 + goal season in his near future.

I think he's a keeper for sure. Good to have guys like that that can slide up and down the line-up without looking out of place. If we can get 20 goals or 40 points out of him, that's a bonus!

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Last year: The 2013-14 Maple Leafs after 60 games
The current projected playoff cut-off mark, based on the points pace of the final wildcard team, is 90.5 points. The Leafs, currently on a 96-point pace, will  need 21 points out of their remaining 22 games. A 10-11-1 or 9-10-3 record is likely all the Leafs will need to ensure their second consecutive playoff appearance in April.

A furious race to the finish line starts February 27 against the New York Islanders.

Phil had about 67 points in those first 61 games - over a ppg per game, .52 gpg. What does he do in his final 21 games? 13 pts, .24gpg. Now goaltending and team defence slipped so there was more than one thing going on - it's a team sport, etc.

I'll agree with anybody who wants to criticize Phil's play over the last 30-40 games, but watching all of last season I never once had the feeling that Phil quit on the team in the 2nd half. Last season the JVR-Bozak-Kessel trio were all in the top-11 among forwards in ice-time per game. The only other team who had more than 1 forward in the top-17 was Vancouver, who also had their trio of Sedin-Sedin-Kesler there. Vancouver and the Leafs were also by far the two teams to use their 4th lines the least last season. At even-strength Kessel actually led all forwards in the league in ice-time. Bozak was 3rd, JVR 6th.  Not even Vancouver's guys had that much ice-time at even-strength, as they were ranked 13th, 17th, and 18th.

Everybody paying attention to the team knew that Randy was overplaying those guys, and that it was going to lead to them being fatigued. They were even being given more and more practices off to try and avoid that, but it obviously didn't work. Combine that workload with the condensed schedule due to the Olympics and the fact that Kessel and JVR played a lot at the Olympics as well, it's really no surprise that those guys had nothing left in the tank, particularly after February.

 

[Kin]

All subsequent data does not refute it. As he had in Boston, the data also shows in Toronto, Kessel continued to experience a significant goal scoring drop off (24%, more than the other top goal scorers) against playoff teams.

Well, at this point you're just flat-out ignoring what I'm saying just the way you're ignoring the years where Kessel seemingly remembers to score against playoff bound teams and ignoring the playoffs where, I guess, you assume that teams are just letting Kessel score at a 48 goal pace out of charity.

 

[Kin]

No, because that's not fundamentally the argument you're making.

Typical Nik to argue what your arguing about.

I'll begin taking you seriously once you grasp the difference between "your" and "you're".

 

[cw]

Sadly Phil is top four in how he's being paid as a goal scorer among that group but he isn't quite top 10 in goals per game among that group between 2010-2015 (Phil's time in Toronto).

Meaningless gibberish. Phil Kessel isn't being paid "as a goal scorer", he's being paid as a hockey player. His entire game was considered when he was negotiating his contract and the fact that he's emerged as one of the best set-up men in the league was a pretty big part of that.

In the previous three seasons Kessel ranked 4th in the league in goals scored, 12th in assists. He was paid as the complete offensive hockey player he's become. Nobody would put up those numbers, against anyone, if they were easily shut down.

He's not a "complete" hockey player.

Since coming to Toronto, Kessel's
assists per game is around 40th.
ppg is 21st
his goal scoring per game is around 10th

Relative to other top NHLers, I'd argue those rankings are  inflated because of his high ice time and lack of PK ice time.

Kessel's goals per 60 minutes ranks 59th this season.
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-goals-per-60-min-played/2014/
Since coming to Toronto, he ranked between there and 21st (his highest ranking as a goal scorer in Toronto). As a function of ice time in Toronto, he's roughly 30th-40th as a NHL goal scorer ... and that's his forte - the best thing he does ... and you wonder why I question them starting him out as the 8th highest paid player in the NHL.

Our $10 mil man, to use your words: "complete offensive hockey player he's become", isn't quite as hot or highly ranked as you're making out this season nor throughout his time in Toronto - in those offensive categories you cite.

His forte is as a goal scorer. And to be more specific in his case, typically more effective/racks up his goals more against non playoff teams (40% difference over the last three years).

Only three of those guys are making more money than Phil. Yet all of them do better than Phil scoring against playoff teams. If Phil is such hot stuff and so deserving of his $64 mil, why do all those guys do better than Phil in that stat?

Because in the 75 years since you've been in your crypt the NHL has learned to also value the assist? Because almost all of those guys are greatly assisted in their goal scoring efforts by the fact that when they play good teams they're not the only half-way decent goalscorer on their teams?

Kessel's points per 60 minutes are ranked around 58th this season.
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-points-per-60-min-leaders/2014/
Since coming to Toronto, he's averaged around 46th in that stat.
He's only really useful/special in the offensive third of the ice because of the other deficiencies in his game. It's part of the reason why Boston kept guys like Bergeron & Krejki over Kessel. In Krejki and Bergeron, they give up .13-.15ppg to Kessel but they provide much superior play in the other two zones and as such, they're a much better bang for their cap buck.

Again we come back to you being just transparently wrong-headed in the way you evaluate players relative to their salaries. Are you seriously asking why John Tavares doesn't make as much as Kessel? Do you understand what restricted free agency is? Do you appreciate that James Neal was playing with an elite offensive centre for most of that time and in Nashville has been exposed as a fairly ordinary player?

See, the thing is I know you know those things. I know that in another circumstance you would be reasonable enough to factor them into the matter of offensive production. However it has become glaringly obvious that you've backburned any semblance or even pretense at rationality or objectivity here in favour of the misguided crusade you're on against the legions of imaginary Leafs fans who you think believe Kessel is as good as Ovechkin or Crosby despite not being paid close to what they are.

I think measuring a players effectiveness as a function of ice time as opposed to games played is a better and more precise measure. When you do that with Kessel, he falls to closer to where he really is among the NHL talent. He's nowhere close to a top 10 NHLer, never has been and never will be - even in his forte of goal scoring.

I'm well aware of the evolution of the CBA and various salary levels over a player's career, etc. The Leafs started Kessel out too high at 8th highest in the league.

Maybe Dave Nonis haggled his deal with Kessel using goals per game like you and got a little ripped off. But I started harping on scoring as a function of ice time many years ago. It is the way hockey analytics is going.

When you look at Kessel in those terms and take into account his limited talent - in that he's close to a one dimensional offensive player, I think you have a pretty good case to maintain he's overpaid relative to the other talent in the NHL.

And I don't think it's an unreasonable way to evaluate a player like Kessel as we're looking at the only two things he does well: goals & points and saying the "per game" unit of measure is bogus - overstates his value/ability.