Tank Nation UNITE!!!

[L K]

Right now there's an 88% chance they finish 4th.

That seems a little high to me. Carolina has some pretty tough matchups and I think the Leafs could win their last two games. I still think the Leafs will overtake Carolina, probably on the last night of the season.

There isn't a lot of room for 'I think' in statistics.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Right now there's an 88% chance they finish 4th.

That seems a little high to me. Carolina has some pretty tough matchups and I think the Leafs could win their last two games. I still think the Leafs will overtake Carolina, probably on the last night of the season.

2-1 'Canes going into the third! 

If we get 5th feel free to blame LuncheonMeat.

 

[Redleaf]

Right now there's an 88% chance they finish 4th.

That seems a little high to me. Carolina has some pretty tough matchups and I think the Leafs could win their last two games. I still think the Leafs will overtake Carolina, probably on the last night of the season.

There isn't a lot of room for 'I think' in statistics.

Right. But there's a lot more honesty in it.

 

[Andy007]

Right now there's an 88% chance they finish 4th.

That seems a little high to me. Carolina has some pretty tough matchups and I think the Leafs could win their last two games. I still think the Leafs will overtake Carolina, probably on the last night of the season.

There isn't a lot of room for 'I think' in statistics.

Right. But there's a lot more honesty in it.

Yea, or the exact opposite.

 

[freer]

Right now there's an 88% chance they finish 4th.

That seems a little high to me. Carolina has some pretty tough matchups and I think the Leafs could win their last two games. I still think the Leafs will overtake Carolina, probably on the last night of the season.

2-1 'Canes going into the third! 

If we get 5th feel free to blame LuncheonMeat.

I think we are safe, our last games are against two hot ish teams

 

[rdowdall]

People shouldn't be worried about where we draft this year.  This is a process.  Even if they win the McEichel, they are a couple years away from being competitive.  This team is broken, and it's broken in a way that is not easily fixable.

 

[Fanatic]

Leafs have 1 more ROW than Carolina with each team having 2 games left to play. The magic number is 3. Any combination of Carolina gaining 3 points or the Leafs losing out on 3 points will mean that the Leafs clinch 27th spot which then means:

9.5% chance of drafting 1st
45%  chance of drafting 4th
45.5% chance of drafting 5th

If the draft order for the first three is McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin then Strome is available at 4th but possibly gone by the time the 5th pick happens. I would love it if the Leafs got Strome and not sure how I would feel (or who I would even pick) about the 5th spot..... so for me the next few games and then next Saturday night are must see TV.  ;D

 

[Highlander]

Is there any chance they draft 2nd or is this just applicable for the #1 position?

 

[Redleaf]

Leafs have 1 more ROW than Carolina with each team having 2 games left to play. The magic number is 3. Any combination of Carolina gaining 3 points or the Leafs losing out on 3 points will mean that the Leafs clinch 27th spot which then means:

9.5% chance of drafting 1st
45%  chance of drafting 4th
45.5% chance of drafting 5th

If the draft order for the first three is McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin then Strome is available at 4th but possibly gone by the time the 5th pick happens. I would love it if the Leafs got Strome and not sure how I would feel (or who I would even pick) about the 5th spot..... so for me the next few games and then next Saturday night are must see TV.  ;D

That 88% chance at 4th, that was posted yesterday has slipped away fast. Leafs need a loss tonight. A win and that number goes waaaay down.

 

[herman]

Is there any chance they draft 2nd or is this just applicable for the #1 position?

The draft lottery is only for jumping to 1st. Anyone in front of your final standing gets bumped down, hence the chance for the Leafs to pick either 1st, 4th, or 5th.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Leafs have 1 more ROW than Carolina with each team having 2 games left to play. The magic number is 3. Any combination of Carolina gaining 3 points or the Leafs losing out on 3 points will mean that the Leafs clinch 27th spot which then means:

9.5% chance of drafting 1st
45%  chance of drafting 4th
45.5% chance of drafting 5th

If the draft order for the first three is McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin then Strome is available at 4th but possibly gone by the time the 5th pick happens. I would love it if the Leafs got Strome and not sure how I would feel (or who I would even pick) about the 5th spot..... so for me the next few games and then next Saturday night are must see TV.  ;D

That 88% chance at 4th, that was posted yesterday has slipped away fast. Leafs need a loss tonight. A win and that number goes waaaay down.

Sure it might have statistically went down (to 77%) but doesn't it feel like it went up? 

 

[CarltonTheBear]

That 88% chance at 4th, that was posted yesterday has slipped away fast. Leafs need a loss tonight. A win and that number goes waaaay down.

To clarify, that 45% number is the odds of the Leafs staying in the 4th position post-lottery IF they finish 4th in the standings. The odds of them finishing 4th in the standings dropped from 88% to 77% with Carolina's loss last night.

 

[L K]

I put the Leafs drafting prediction into my own analytic tool that I comprised.

1st - 3.2%
2nd - 0%
3rd - 0%
4th - 12%
5th - 80%
6th - 12%

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

That 88% chance at 4th, that was posted yesterday has slipped away fast. Leafs need a loss tonight. A win and that number goes waaaay down.

To clarify, that 45% number is the odds of the Leafs staying in the 4th position post-lottery IF they finish 4th in the standings. The odds of them finishing 4th in the standings dropped from 88% to 77% with Carolina's loss last night.

For anyone that might be interested: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Atlantic/Toronto.html

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Right now there's an 88% chance they finish 4th.

That seems a little high to me. Carolina has some pretty tough matchups and I think the Leafs could win their last two games. I still think the Leafs will overtake Carolina, probably on the last night of the season.

2-1 'Canes going into the third! 

If we get 5th feel free to blame LuncheonMeat.

Man, Carolina really played a pretty good game last night.  Unfortunately, after a really strong couple of periods Khudobin let in a softie to make it 2-2.  The finish was really entertaining too. 

My only regret is I turned off the television at that point - I had been flipping between two games - and missed the last 5 minutes of the Sens/Pens.  That sounded like a better finish.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I put the Leafs drafting prediction into my own analytic tool that I comprised.

1st - 3.2%
2nd - 0%
3rd - 0%
4th - 12%
5th - 80%
6th - 12%

You may want to check your math....

They finish 4th, there is a 9.5% chance at #1.  They finish 5th, there is a 8.5% chance.  Considering their odds of finishing 4th are higher than 5th, their overall chance at the #1 draft pick at this point is around the 9.25% range right now.  3.2% is way too low.

EDIT:  Here are the numbers:

Finish 4th Last:  1st: 9.5%  4th: 45%  5th: 45.5%
Finish 5th Last:  1st: 8.5%  5th: 54.5%  6th:  37%

So, I believe the current odds are 77% that we finish 4th... using those odds:

1st:  9.27%  4th:  34.65%  5th:  47.57%  6th:  8.51%

Say our odds are 50% at finishing 4th last (50% at finishing 5th last):

1st: 9%  4th: 22.5%  5th: 50%  6th: 18.5% 

 

[LuncheonMeat]

I put the Leafs drafting prediction into my own analytic tool that I comprised.

1st - 3.2%
2nd - 0%
3rd - 0%
4th - 12%
5th - 80%
6th - 12%

You may want to check your math....

They finish 4th, there is a 9.5% chance at #1.  They finish 5th, there is a 8.5% chance.  Considering their odds of finishing 4th are higher than 5th, their overall chance at the #1 draft pick at this point is around the 9.25% range right now.  3.2% is way too low.

EDIT:  Here are the numbers:

Finish 4th Last:  1st: 9.5%  4th: 45%  5th: 45.5%
Finish 5th Last:  1st: 8.5%  5th: 54.5%  6th:  37%

So, I believe the current odds are 77% that we finish 4th... using those odds:

1st:  9.27%  4th:  34.65%  5th:  47.57%  6th:  8.51%

Say our odds are 50% at finishing 4th last (50% at finishing 5th last):

1st: 9%  4th: 22.5%  5th: 50%  6th: 18.5%

I think LK's analytics tool is still in beta. 

 

[princedpw]

Leafs management had better throw the last two games of the year.  I volunteer to be in net.

Really too bad Carolina didn't beat buffalo.  They crushed them shotwise and also outshot Detroit.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

I put the Leafs drafting prediction into my own analytic tool that I comprised.

1st - 3.2%
2nd - 0%
3rd - 0%
4th - 12%
5th - 80%
6th - 12%

You may want to check your math....

They finish 4th, there is a 9.5% chance at #1.  They finish 5th, there is a 8.5% chance.  Considering their odds of finishing 4th are higher than 5th, their overall chance at the #1 draft pick at this point is around the 9.25% range right now.  3.2% is way too low.

EDIT:  Here are the numbers:

Finish 4th Last:  1st: 9.5%  4th: 45%  5th: 45.5%
Finish 5th Last:  1st: 8.5%  5th: 54.5%  6th:  37%

So, I believe the current odds are 77% that we finish 4th... using those odds:

1st:  9.27%  4th:  34.65%  5th:  47.57%  6th:  8.51%

Say our odds are 50% at finishing 4th last (50% at finishing 5th last):

1st: 9%  4th: 22.5%  5th: 50%  6th: 18.5%

That's a very long response to a very short joke.

 

[L K]

I put the Leafs drafting prediction into my own analytic tool that I comprised.

1st - 3.2%
2nd - 0%
3rd - 0%
4th - 12%
5th - 80%
6th - 12%

You may want to check your math....

They finish 4th, there is a 9.5% chance at #1.  They finish 5th, there is a 8.5% chance.  Considering their odds of finishing 4th are higher than 5th, their overall chance at the #1 draft pick at this point is around the 9.25% range right now.  3.2% is way too low.

EDIT:  Here are the numbers:

Finish 4th Last:  1st: 9.5%  4th: 45%  5th: 45.5%
Finish 5th Last:  1st: 8.5%  5th: 54.5%  6th:  37%

So, I believe the current odds are 77% that we finish 4th... using those odds:

1st:  9.27%  4th:  34.65%  5th:  47.57%  6th:  8.51%

Say our odds are 50% at finishing 4th last (50% at finishing 5th last):

1st: 9%  4th: 22.5%  5th: 50%  6th: 18.5%

I think LK's analytics tool is still in beta. 

My mistake.  I divided by the root of my gut feeling when I was supposed to multiply by the inverse square Kessel's appetite.

My numbers were made entirely in jest.  Not an overly funny attempt at humour, but most of what I post usually falls into that category anyway.