Tank Nation UNITE!!!

[LuncheonMeat]

I put the Leafs drafting prediction into my own analytic tool that I comprised.

1st - 3.2%
2nd - 0%
3rd - 0%
4th - 12%
5th - 80%
6th - 12%

You may want to check your math....

They finish 4th, there is a 9.5% chance at #1.  They finish 5th, there is a 8.5% chance.  Considering their odds of finishing 4th are higher than 5th, their overall chance at the #1 draft pick at this point is around the 9.25% range right now.  3.2% is way too low.

EDIT:  Here are the numbers:

Finish 4th Last:  1st: 9.5%  4th: 45%  5th: 45.5%
Finish 5th Last:  1st: 8.5%  5th: 54.5%  6th:  37%

So, I believe the current odds are 77% that we finish 4th... using those odds:

1st:  9.27%  4th:  34.65%  5th:  47.57%  6th:  8.51%

Say our odds are 50% at finishing 4th last (50% at finishing 5th last):

1st: 9%  4th: 22.5%  5th: 50%  6th: 18.5%

I think LK's analytics tool is still in beta. 

My mistake.  I divided by the root of my gut feeling when I was supposed to multiply by the inverse square Kessel's appetite.

My numbers were made entirely in jest.  Not an overly funny attempt at humour, but most of what I post usually falls into that category anyway.

As long as your analytics tool goes to 11, all is forgiven.

 

[Highlander]

Surely you jest!

 

[Fanatic]

 

[slapshot]

Thankfully Leafs lose tonight. Now if the Canes could just pick up a point against Phillly, we could actually root for the Leafs against the Habs Saturday and enjoy it.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Updated situation now (per @mirtle):

1 point by Carolina in their 2 remaining games or a Leafs loss against Montreal guarantees us 4th place.

 

[ZBBM]

Thankfully Leafs lose tonight. Now if the Canes could just pick up a point against Phillly, we could actually root for the Leafs against the Habs Saturday and enjoy it.

I missed all the games since March 23 but I'm back home tomorrow and looking forward to one last game with this crowd on Sat nite ... and yes, I would love to be able to actually root for a win against the Canadiens.

This has been by far the least enjoyable season since I started following the team in the early 90s. 

 

[princedpw]

5-0 columbus. very effective tanking tonight.  good job leafs.

 

[Tigger]

Thankfully Leafs lose tonight. Now if the Canes could just pick up a point against Phillly, we could actually root for the Leafs against the Habs Saturday and enjoy it.

I missed all the games since March 23 but I'm back home tomorrow and looking forward to one last game with this crowd on Sat nite ... and yes, I would love to be able to actually root for a win against the Canadiens.

This has been by far the least enjoyable season since I started following the team in the early 90s. 

I dunno, 05/06 was brutal.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I put the Leafs drafting prediction into my own analytic tool that I comprised.

1st - 3.2%
2nd - 0%
3rd - 0%
4th - 12%
5th - 80%
6th - 12%

You may want to check your math....

They finish 4th, there is a 9.5% chance at #1.  They finish 5th, there is a 8.5% chance.  Considering their odds of finishing 4th are higher than 5th, their overall chance at the #1 draft pick at this point is around the 9.25% range right now.  3.2% is way too low.

EDIT:  Here are the numbers:

Finish 4th Last:  1st: 9.5%  4th: 45%  5th: 45.5%
Finish 5th Last:  1st: 8.5%  5th: 54.5%  6th:  37%

So, I believe the current odds are 77% that we finish 4th... using those odds:

1st:  9.27%  4th:  34.65%  5th:  47.57%  6th:  8.51%

Say our odds are 50% at finishing 4th last (50% at finishing 5th last):

1st: 9%  4th: 22.5%  5th: 50%  6th: 18.5%

I think LK's analytics tool is still in beta. 

My mistake.  I divided by the root of my gut feeling when I was supposed to multiply by the inverse square Kessel's appetite.

My numbers were made entirely in jest.  Not an overly funny attempt at humour, but most of what I post usually falls into that category anyway.

Cheeky.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

5-0 columbus. very effective tanking tonight.  good job leafs.

And with that, the Leafs win a grand total of 8 games on the road this season.  That's tough to wrap your head around, eight wins and 33 losses.  Good for the tank I suppose, but that's got to be close to a record for this team.

 

[Al14]

5-0 columbus. very effective tanking tonight.  good job leafs.

And with that, the Leafs win a grand total of 8 games on the road this season.  That's tough to wrap your head around, eight wins and 33 losses.  Good for the tank I suppose, but that's got to be close to a record for this team.

A truly pathetic results for a team core of even more pathetic players.  None of our core players are worth their contracts IMHO.

 

[caver]

So if Carolina earns a single point in their last 2 games.... it's a 4th place finish and nothing worse than the 5th draft spot..fingers crossed..

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Next time someone says they can't even tank/lose right:

"If the Leafs lose in regulation, they?ll wind up with the fewest points in an 82-game season in franchise history."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/mirtle-maple-leafs-prove-theyre-very-good-at-being-very-bad/article23855521/

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Next time someone says they can't even tank/lose right:

"If the Leafs lose in regulation, they?ll wind up with the fewest points in an 82-game season in franchise history."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/mirtle-maple-leafs-prove-theyre-very-good-at-being-very-bad/article23855521/

They've done a heck of a job.  Even with the recent mini hot streak, Edmonton has still gained about 5 points on the Leafs over the past 10 games or so.

 

[Al14]

Next time someone says they can't even tank/lose right:

"If the Leafs lose in regulation, they?ll wind up with the fewest points in an 82-game season in franchise history."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/mirtle-maple-leafs-prove-theyre-very-good-at-being-very-bad/article23855521/

They've done a heck of a job.  Even with the recent mini hot streak, Edmonton has still gained about 5 points on the Leafs over the past 10 games or so.

If only we hadn't gone on that 10 game win streak!  If only!!!

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Next time someone says they can't even tank/lose right:

"If the Leafs lose in regulation, they?ll wind up with the fewest points in an 82-game season in franchise history."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/mirtle-maple-leafs-prove-theyre-very-good-at-being-very-bad/article23855521/

Even with the recent mini hot streak

That's an hilariously low bar for "hot streak."

 

[L K]

Next time someone says they can't even tank/lose right:

"If the Leafs lose in regulation, they?ll wind up with the fewest points in an 82-game season in franchise history."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/mirtle-maple-leafs-prove-theyre-very-good-at-being-very-bad/article23855521/

Even with the recent mini hot streak

That's an hilariously low bar for "hot streak."

I prefer not to think of them as 'hot streaks' so much as periods of intentionally trying to show how much they hate the fans.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Next time someone says they can't even tank/lose right:

"If the Leafs lose in regulation, they?ll wind up with the fewest points in an 82-game season in franchise history."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/mirtle-maple-leafs-prove-theyre-very-good-at-being-very-bad/article23855521/

Even with the recent mini hot streak

That's an hilariously low bar for "hot streak."

With this season, you take what you can get!  Besides, it's a 'mini' hot streak. 

 

[bustaheims]

That's an hilariously low bar for "hot streak."

It's really more of a lukewarm streak. Kinda like somebody peed in the pool.

 

[Arn]

That's an hilariously low bar for "hot streak."

It's really more of a lukewarm streak. Kinda like somebody peed in the pool.

But in the baby pool rather than the main pool cos you can feel the effects more