THE 2016 NHL DRAFT-DAY THREAD

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I don't understand the rationale of drafting so many guys who weren't good enough to be drafted in the 1st or 2nd draft.

There has been talk this year of making the draft age older because you generally have a better idea about a prospects strengths and weaknesses if you see them after 17/18.

It seems the Leafs want more "sure things" this time around.

 

[groundskeeper willie]

This just seems to have been a weird draft all around. I'm not sure I get the leafs plan, but then I could say the same thing about a lot of teams this year.

Like somebody here said, after the top 20 the draft just seemed all over the place. Might be one if the reasons they were willing to move the #30 pick in a trade.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Another big defenseman. Nicolas Mattinen from the Knights at #179.

That's playoff healthy scratch Nicolas Mattinen to you good sir.

 

[Kin]

Nikolai Chebykin finishes the draft off. A Russian winger.

 

[Kin]

There has been talk this year of making the draft age older because you generally have a better idea about a prospects strengths and weaknesses if you see them after 17/18.

It seems the Leafs want more "sure things" this time around.

Even then. You'd think that if these guys used their overage years to establish themselves as really good bets as pros they would have been rated higher.

That said, Datsyuk and Chara both got drafted as overagers so who knows?

Not a super inspiring draft but I don't think there's a ton to take from it. Even from a philosophical sense.

 

[Al14]

Can Greenway handle NHL speed coming at him without becoming a turnover machine?

Guys picked at that spot have about a 1 in 4 chance of playing 100 games in the NHL.

Nobody knows how any of these young dmen will react in the scenario you described.

They clearly see a kid with some raw tools.

With the proper development, he might be an NHL'er.

He already has a history of turnovers when pressured, so, he'll need to improve in this area against NHL speed for sure.  This big kid may be a long shot.

 

[Redleaf]

The strategy implored at this years draft appears to be picking as many 'ready-now' players as they can. I'm sure most around here are sick of this now, but I have to believe it strengthens the chances that Stamkos get signed here, and that the combined prospects from the last few drafts up to today's draft will need to be ready to start competing for spots a lot faster than most of us had previously thought.

 

[Al14]

I don't understand the rationale of drafting so many guys who weren't good enough to be drafted in the 1st or 2nd draft.

Late bloomers.  It happens.

 

[Kin]

Non-Leafs Drafts I like, rated unscientifically:

1. Arizona
2. Philadelphia
3. Tampa Bay
4. Montreal
5. Buffalo

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

There has been talk this year of making the draft age older because you generally have a better idea about a prospects strengths and weaknesses if you see them after 17/18.

It seems the Leafs want more "sure things" this time around.

Even then. You'd think that if these guys used their overage years to establish themselves as really good bets as pros they would have been rated higher.

That said, Datsyuk and Chara both got drafted as overagers so who knows?

Not a super inspiring draft but I don't think there's a ton to take from it. Even from a philosophical sense.

Yeah, I mean I agree for the most part, just trying to step back and see what they are doing.

There's been a lot of talk on twitter about the Leafs thinking they might have found a market inefficiency.

I'll need to take a closer look at the following...

http://prospect-stats.com/blog/Overage_Prospects.html

Conclusion
If you view the NHL as a marketplace, the most undervalued commodity is legitimate NHL prospects who were passed over in their first year of draft eligibility, otherwise known as overage players. Thus, the natural way to game the NHL draft is to exploit the aforementioned inefficiency. DEV exclusively compares players with other prospects in the same year of draft eligibility. As a result, perhaps the most practical usage of DEV is for identifying overage draft eligible prospects and quantifying where they should be selected.

 

[Kin]

He already has a history of turnovers when pressured, so, he'll need to improve in this area against NHL speed for sure.  This big kid may be a long shot.

Every 3rd rounder is a long shot.

 

[Joe S.]

The strategy implored at this years draft appears to be picking as many 'ready-now' players as they can. I'm sure most around here are sick of this now, but I have to believe it strengthens the chances that Stamkos get signed here, and that the combined prospects from the last few drafts up to today's draft will need to be ready to start competing for spots a lot faster than most of us had previously thought.

Implored?

 

[Kin]

The strategy implored at this years draft appears to be picking as many 'ready-now' players as they can. I'm sure most around here are sick of this now, but I have to believe it strengthens the chances that Stamkos get signed here, and that the combined prospects from the last few drafts up to today's draft will need to be ready to start competing for spots a lot faster than most of us had previously thought.

Implored?

Cleverly, the Leafs picked overage players hoping to convince other teams to do the same. Then, next year, everyone else picks 20 year olds and the Leafs pick Nolan Patrick in the 2nd round.

 

[Deebo]

211 drafted players by Country:

Canada	89	42.2%
USA	52	24.6%
Sweden	25	11.8%
Russia	17	8.1%
Finland	14	6.6%
Czech Republic	4	1.9%
Denmark	3	1.4%
Switzerland	2	0.9%
Belgium	2	0.9%
Latvia	1	0.5%
Belarus	1	0.5%
Germany	1	0.5%

 

[lc9]

There has been talk this year of making the draft age older because you generally have a better idea about a prospects strengths and weaknesses if you see them after 17/18.

It seems the Leafs want more "sure things" this time around.

Even then. You'd think that if these guys used their overage years to establish themselves as really good bets as pros they would have been rated higher.

That said, Datsyuk and Chara both got drafted as overagers so who knows?

Not a super inspiring draft but I don't think there's a ton to take from it. Even from a philosophical sense.

Agreed.  It seems the Leafs stuck to whatever plan they had.  And really for me, after Matthews, it was all kind of gravy.  Hard to project how any 2nd rounder and on will develop. 

 

[herman]

There's been a lot of talk on twitter about the Leafs thinking they might have found a market inefficiency.

I'll need to take a closer look at the following...

http://prospect-stats.com/blog/Overage_Prospects.html

Conclusion
If you view the NHL as a marketplace, the most undervalued commodity is legitimate NHL prospects who were passed over in their first year of draft eligibility, otherwise known as overage players. Thus, the natural way to game the NHL draft is to exploit the aforementioned inefficiency. DEV exclusively compares players with other prospects in the same year of draft eligibility. As a result, perhaps the most practical usage of DEV is for identifying overage draft eligible prospects and quantifying where they should be selected.

Thanks, Patrick! This looks very interesting.

 

[TBLeafer]

Interesting indeed. 

There goes another Kessel piece.  Harrington for Rychel and a conditional 5th.

We get the 5th if Harrington is claimed off waivers.

 

[Kin]

I guess the Elliot trade is significant but I'm a little surprised bigger deals didn't get done. You'd think Edmonton has to do something at some point.

 

[Bullfrog]

The strategy implored at this years draft appears to be picking as many 'ready-now' players as they can. I'm sure most around here are sick of this now, but I have to believe it strengthens the chances that Stamkos get signed here, and that the combined prospects from the last few drafts up to today's draft will need to be ready to start competing for spots a lot faster than most of us had previously thought.

I can't see how today's draft has absolutely any possible chance of having any impact on the chances of Stamkos signing here beyond possibly Matthews being drafted.

 

[maplesyrup]

I really don't want to get into a bidding war with Edmonton for defense but Jebus, we need some help there.