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The Official 2011/2012 Armchair GM thread

Sarge said:
... and I guess this is where we fundamentally disagree. For me, I'd rather move forward with Nash (who I believe is actually a titch younger than Grabo) and let's be honest, the far superior player than Grabo and what amounts to be a lottery ticket.

And, as I said earlier, that attitude and methodology has landed the Leafs exactly zero Cups and zero appearances in the Finals since before expansion. Winning a Cup takes patience, which I would suggest is something you (and many others) are lacking.
 
bustaheims said:
Potvin29 said:
I honestly don't think the gap between Grabovski and Nash is huge.

I don't think it's as big as some people make it out to be either. Nash is very good, but, he's not great.

Yeah that's what I'm getting at, that I don't think Nash is an elite player, and while I don't think Grabovski is as good as Nash (and doesn't have the big body), I do think Grabovski brings a lot to the table that Nash doesn't (I think he's better defensively).  This year they scored at pretty much the exact same rate (.68 to .71) with Nash getting 2:00/ES and 1:00/PP time extra.  Now of course it was a poor season for Nash, but you never know.
 
bustaheims said:
And, as I said earlier, that attitude and methodology has landed the Leafs exactly zero Cups and zero appearances in the Finals since before expansion. Winning a Cup takes patience, which I would suggest is something you (and many others) are lacking.

Okay, let's pretend the Leafs won the cup fairly recently (I don't want to be the guy who goes down that  45 year-old road.) What may I ask is a reasonable amount of time to build a championship calibre team? Heck, how about a playoff calibre team? Assuming the last 45 years didn't happen, at what point am I allowed as a fan to begin to lose patience... starting say oh, I don't know - the lock-out? Moreover, at what point as an organization (assuming I'm part of one) am I allowed to look back at my history to see what worked and try to repeat it? - Like for instance, the acquisition of Mats Sundin. You know, I can't remember the last time the Leafs went out and traded for an elite player like Nash. It has to be Sundin, right? Sure, we didn't win any cups when he was here but maybe with some better subsequent decisions coupled with a bit of luck we could have. Yeah, Sundin was younger than Nash, and no doubt better but who may I ask have the Leafs in the last (I don't know how many) years just gone out and got that you'd compare to Nash?... Dion?... Kessel? Not so much I don't think. Like I said, if he's available to the Leafs, we just have to get him I think.     
 
Potvin29 said:
bustaheims said:
Potvin29 said:
I honestly don't think the gap between Grabovski and Nash is huge.

I don't think it's as big as some people make it out to be either. Nash is very good, but, he's not great.

Yeah that's what I'm getting at, that I don't think Nash is an elite player, and while I don't think Grabovski is as good as Nash (and doesn't have the big body), I do think Grabovski brings a lot to the table that Nash doesn't (I think he's better defensively).  This year they scored at pretty much the exact same rate (.68 to .71) with Nash getting 2:00/ES and 1:00/PP time extra.  Now of course it was a poor season for Nash, but you never know.

Well, again guys, if you think there isn't much of a gap between Grabo and Nash then I dig why you wouldn't be a fan of dealing for him... As for me, well, let's just say I just feel different about that.
 
Sarge said:
WhatIfGodWasALeaf said:
Kessel>>>>Nash

Well, at one end of the ice and based on last season, you would be right. Really, I take Nash over Kessel all day long. 

http://hockeyanalysis.com/2012/02/14/what-is-rick-nash/

I haven't taken the time to learn about the advanced stats, but here is a quote from the article:

"So, to summarize, yes Nash is a good offensive player who may put up better numbers playing with better offensive players but he is probably not an elite offensive forward.  Also, he isn’t a great defensive forward so offense really is what you get him for."
 
Let me tell you, based on these AHL Playoffs I'd seriously consider giving Scrivens a shot as starter next year if we don't get some goalie help.

He's playing really well.
 
If folks believe Kessel is a better hockey player than Nash or moreover, would rather Kessel over Nash on their team when given free choice than clearly, the universe has exploded and I know not what remains of whatever reality I'm living in right now.
 
jdh1 said:
Any chance sending Phenuef as the main piece for Nash?..if we trade Kessel it's a sideways move to me.

I doubt it. I'm not as glum about Phaneuf as most of the fandom is (though I'm still rather glum) but I don't think there's much of a market for Dion. - Especially when we're talking about a deal where a franchise player would be coming the other way.
 
Sarge said:
Okay, let's pretend the Leafs won the cup fairly recently (I don't want to be the guy who goes down that  45 year-old road.) What may I ask is a reasonable amount of time to build a championship calibre team? Heck, how about a playoff calibre team? Assuming the last 45 years didn't happen, at what point am I allowed as a fan to begin to lose patience... starting say oh, I don't know - the lock-out? Moreover, at what point as an organization (assuming I'm part of one) am I allowed to look back at my history to see what worked and try to repeat it? - Like for instance, the acquisition of Mats Sundin. You know, I can't remember the last time the Leafs went out and traded for an elite player like Nash. It has to be Sundin, right? Sure, we didn't win any cups when he was here but maybe with some better subsequent decisions coupled with a bit of luck we could have. Yeah, Sundin was younger than Nash, and no doubt better but who may I ask have the Leafs in the last (I don't know how many) years just gone out and got that you'd compare to Nash?... Dion?... Kessel? Not so much I don't think. Like I said, if he's available to the Leafs, we just have to get him I think.   

The problems with comparing the Sundin trade and a potential move for Nash are really two-fold. Firstly, look at what the Leafs moved for Sundin and what they got in return - Mats came with a top 10 pick and a player who was drafted 4th overall two years earlier (and Butcher, who didn't add much value to the deal, really) and the Leafs gave up Clark, Lefebvre, a late 1st and a guy chosen late in the 1st in the previous draft. That deal was a win on all levels for the Leafs. On top of that, Quebec was a team on the cusp of winning a Cup and were looking for the right mix, not to rebuild. There's absolutely no way the Leafs come out of a Nash deal in the same way they came out of the Sundin trade. Outside of the fact we'd be talking about the Leafs acquiring a former 1st overall pick, the two deals wouldn't even be in the same universe.

Secondly, during the prime of the Sundin era, the Leafs didn't have to worry about a cap. They had the ability to simply throw money at what they thought were potential solutions to their talent issues. That's no longer an option. That means the team has to be smarter about their moves, smarter about the contracts they sign and those they acquire. There needs to be more concern about price/performance and things along those lines that weren't issues in the late 90s/early 2000s . . . which, really, raises another point - it took 5 years from the Sundin trade for the Leafs to really assert themselves as anything more than a mediocre team. 5 years before they finished higher than 3rd in their division. 5 years before they won a playoff round. Not to mention the fact that when they made that deal, they were coming off consecutive semi-final appearances.

The situations surrounding the Sundin deal and the team now couldn't be more different. They're virtually incomparable. I mean, if we're being totally honest about it, the Sundin deal didn't work for what it was meant for when it was made. Long-term, sure, it was a great move, but it wasn't exactly a sparkling success for the franchise as a whole until well after it was made - and they had much more in place than the Leafs of today do.

Elite players don't win Cups, elite teams do. Elite teams know when to go all in on a guy like Nash and when they have to sit back, take the time to build a base and reach the point where maybe a guy like Nash can put them over the top. The Leafs are not at that point. They're not even near it. Making that move now is skipping a bunch of steps and sets the team back more than it puts them ahead. It doesn't get the team where you want them to go, it just gets them a shiny name to sell jerseys while they continue to toil in mediocrity for another handful of seasons.
 
bustaheims said:
Elite teams know when to go all in on a guy like Nash and when they have to sit back, take the time to build a base and reach the point where maybe a guy like Nash can put them over the top.

I don't want to discredit some of the better points you make in your post by omitting them busta but in my estimation, #5 + Grabo (in principle) isn't exactly "all in" as far as I'm concerned. I mean, if we're not going to make moves like this, why bother? Build a base? For how long? Are we there yet? If not, when will we be? Wouldn't Nash given his youth be part of said base? I don't know, I'm just so sick of the same old crap from this team. I'm hoping for more than one miracle this off-season.
 
bustaheims said:
The problems with comparing the Sundin trade and a potential move for Nash are really two-fold. Firstly, look at what the Leafs moved for Sundin and what they got in return - Mats came with a top 10 pick and a player who was drafted 4th overall two years earlier (and Butcher, who didn't add much value to the deal, really) and the Leafs gave up Clark, Lefebvre, a late 1st and a guy chosen late in the 1st in the previous draft. That deal was a win on all levels for the Leafs. On top of that, Quebec was a team on the cusp of winning a Cup and were looking for the right mix, not to rebuild. There's absolutely no way the Leafs come out of a Nash deal in the same way they came out of the Sundin trade. Outside of the fact we'd be talking about the Leafs acquiring a former 1st overall pick, the two deals wouldn't even be in the same universe.

Nash would be the Wendel Clark of that trade and we would not be at the Nordiques level. Older proven guy going to team ready to make a big run.  Nice to have, fun to watch but not until the team is ready for the contender status, as you suggest.
 

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