Unofficial 2012/2013 Armchair GM

[#1PilarFan]

The main point I was making is that the solution to the Leafs' problems (a legit #1 centre) is not available through free agency this year and signing Parise or trading for Nash (which would cost the farm) is not a solution.  I would say goaltending is the next most important issue and selling the farm to get Luongo isn't worth it in my opinion either.

In terms of Luongo, you only need to look at the aptly named Luongo thread to know that no one is advocating giving up substantial assets in return for him - even if goaltending is a serious issue for the Leafs. The majority of Leafs fans - and dare I say non-Canuck fans - were only interested because he represented a significant upgrade in net without the asset cost normally associated with good goaltenders. His contract is ugly, but you can rationalize that anyway you want, as long as he doesn't command the price that Gillis is asking for. No one has advocated "giving up the farm" for Luongo - in fact, most are surprised that a goaltender with a NMC and a long term contract who is seemingly being pushed off of his team would warrant such a asking price.

As for Nash, I agree with you - he's not a centre and Howson's career depends on this trade. With that said, at least he is confirmed to be available. The same cannot said be said about Perry and Getzlaf.

Being patient and targetting next year's free agent class, which presents a number of decent options at a time when the Leafs will have significant cap room, while maximizing the value received for current assets, is what I believe it will take to make sure this team has long term success. 

I'm not suggesting they tank for the sake of a high pick.  That's just the ancillary benefit of toughing it out one more year before targetting key UFAs who are simply not available this year.

You've mentioned Toronto's cap space come next season. You know who else has cap space? Anaheim. And they're not alone. The Leafs will have a few of their contracts come off the books, but so will most of the teams in the league.

The strategy of tanking and hoping that one of the few key free agents that could actually change the Leafs' fortune will not only reach free agency but ultimately choose the Leafs over a plethora of other suitors is, in my mind, a very very poor one.

The better strategy is to manage your cap space accordingly while continually adding assets to the team. The team needs to get better. Tanking is not the answer. Praying for a Hail Mary in free agency is not the answer. Adding pieces that can immediately contribute to a playoff team without sacrificing too much of the future is the answer. Now is not the time for patience. Now is the time to act.

You also touched on another key point I made.  In theory, a GM should do what's in the best long term interests of the team; not implement a quick fix to save his job.  In reality, not many GMs would do that and I don't expect Burke to; but this is the armchair GM thread and I'm not worried about what Burke will do - I'm commenting about what I would as a GM.

Yes, but I think the strength of this thread is that it usually is grounded in some kind of reality. This reality separates it from the "Kulemin, 1st and Holzer for Crosby and a 3rd".

Championing tanking for another season is neither realistic nor prudent.

 

[Etiam Vultus]

The free agent pickings seem to get thinner each year. 

I sincerely hope that the Leafs do not sign a lower tier free agent to get up to the cap maximum.  I would much prefer to fill out the roster with Marlie graduates and save the cap space for improvements through trades. 

 

[Omallley]

The free agent pickings seem to get thinner each year. 

I sincerely hope that the Leafs do not sign a lower tier free agent to get up to the cap maximum.  I would much prefer to fill out the roster with Marlie graduates and save the cap space for improvements through trades.

I'd be surprised if the blew their brains out on those types of players, but who knows - Burke's FA signings have certainly been some of his weaker moves.

 

[Tigger]

The free agent pickings seem to get thinner each year. 

I sincerely hope that the Leafs do not sign a lower tier free agent to get up to the cap maximum.  I would much prefer to fill out the roster with Marlie graduates and save the cap space for improvements through trades.

I'd be surprised if the blew their brains out on those types of players, but who knows - Burke's FA signings have certainly been some of his weaker moves.

The bigger ticket players aside, McClement would be a nifty addition. Not sure about the cost but he's a bonafide top pk'r and pretty decent with faceoffs.

From what I've read from Colorado fans they're not too happy that he's leaving.

 

[Corn Flake]

I like McClement too, but with Steckel assumed to be the 4th line centre, not the 3rd, then I think he is redundant.

 

[Tigger]

I like McClement too, but with Steckel assumed to be the 4th line centre, not the 3rd, then I think he is redundant.

That depends on whether Steckel's audition on the third line was a hit with Carlyle or not.

 

[Corn Flake]

I like McClement too, but with Steckel assumed to be the 4th line centre, not the 3rd, then I think he is redundant.

That depends on whether Steckel's audition on the third line was a hit with Carlyle or not.

True, but also depends on the Connolly and Bozak situations, not to mention Colborne, Kadri etc... will be a lot of players auditioning for the 3rd line gig. 

 

[Tigger]

I like McClement too, but with Steckel assumed to be the 4th line centre, not the 3rd, then I think he is redundant.

That depends on whether Steckel's audition on the third line was a hit with Carlyle or not.

True, but also depends on the Connolly and Bozak situations, not to mention Colborne, Kadri etc... will be a lot of players auditioning for the 3rd line gig.

Yeah, and I'm not sold on the cost. I'm hungry for a top pk'r, like I was last offseason with Talbot and by all accounts Jay was a big part of Colorado's improvement in that department last year. I don't want them to seriously overpay for him, just that they could really use him.

Still, if the Leafs think they have something in Colborne, or maybe even Deschamps, that could pose an interesting dilemma.

Connolly can probably fit in a few places if he has to and for now I think Kadri is a winger or trade bait.

I've also mentioned the idea of moving Steckel to wing if needs be, while still having him take faceoffs.

 

[Corn Flake]

Yeah, and I'm not sold on the cost. I'm hungry for a top pk'r, like I was last offseason with Talbot and by all accounts Jay was a big part of Colorado's improvement in that department last year. I don't want them to seriously overpay for him, just that they could really use him.

Still, if the Leafs think they have something in Colborne, or maybe even Deschamps, that could pose an interesting dilemma.

Connolly can probably fit in a few places if he has to and for now I think Kadri is a winger or trade bait.

I've also mentioned the idea of moving Steckel to wing if needs be, while still having him take faceoffs.

Good point on needing a legit PK guy.  He would bring that for sure and yes Steckel on the wing at times works.  He spent some time there last year.

This way they could kind of leave the 3rd line centre job open to whoever takes it, between the prospects and the proven guys. And if that fails then Steckel can move back to the role for the short term.  But I would think/hope between the number of guys we have vying for the position, one would grab it and run. 

 

[Tigger]

Yeah, it seems like a flexible idea at least, it could be a really good fit though I have no idea if McClement would be open to signing in Toronto or for what price.

He is a good old Kingston boy...

 

[LuncheonMeat]

I like McClement too, but with Steckel assumed to be the 4th line centre, not the 3rd, then I think he is redundant.

That depends on whether Steckel's audition on the third line was a hit with Carlyle or not.

True, but also depends on the Connolly and Bozak situations, not to mention Colborne, Kadri etc... will be a lot of players auditioning for the 3rd line gig.

Yeah, and I'm not sold on the cost. I'm hungry for a top pk'r, like I was last offseason with Talbot and by all accounts Jay was a big part of Colorado's improvement in that department last year. I don't want them to seriously overpay for him, just that they could really use him.

Still, if the Leafs think they have something in Colborne, or maybe even Deschamps, that could pose an interesting dilemma.

Connolly can probably fit in a few places if he has to and for now I think Kadri is a winger or trade bait.
I've also mentioned the idea of moving Steckel to wing if needs be, while still having him take faceoffs.

After Burke's comments the other day, about how much he has hated having a small team the past couple of years, I would be leaning more toward trade bait.

 

[caver]

Connolly has skill, Kadri is great with the stick and Bozak makes nice passes but this team is as soft as butter. Make the tough decisions and build a playoff team.

 

[Britishbulldog]

Connolly can probably fit in a few places if he has to and for now I think Kadri is a winger or trade bait.
I've also mentioned the idea of moving Steckel to wing if needs be, while still having him take faceoffs.

After Burke's comments the other day, about how much he has hated having a small team the past couple of years, I would be leaning more toward trade bait.

I am kind of hoping that Burke would package Kadri with Gunnarsson for Evander Kane if Kane is not completely happy in Winnipeg.

 

[Britishbulldog]

Connolly has skill, Kadri is great with the stick and Bozak makes nice passes but this team is as soft as butter. Make the tough decisions and build a playoff team.

My New-"er" game plan still blows up the non-play roster of last year and is now 3 fold:1)look for players that might have friction with their current team, 2)look for players who under-performed last year and are feeling a bit of fan backlash and 3)try to get them 25 years old or younger.

I like Clowe, Thornton, Doan, Morrow and Iginla but because of their age I see those are the players that are picked up when a team is ready to compete for the Cup not when a team is trying to make the playoffs.  I hope Burke doesn't get any of them.

*Under performers with some fan backlash:Chris Stewart - MacArthur
I am hoping that the St Louis Blues want LH scoring to help them and will trade Stewart for MacArthur straight up.  He would ride shotgun for JVR and Grabovski on 2nd line.

Trade Connolly for anything.

*Rumoured 'friction':E. Kane - Kadri +  Gunnarsson + Connolly's trade asset
I hope that where there is smoke that there is fire and Evander Kane could want out of Winnipeg.  Kadri, Gunnarsson and whatever Connolly got the Leafs for E. Kane.  He would join Frattin and Lombardi after signing a 'MacArthur' 2 year/$3.25 per year contract to give him 2 years to prove that he can score around 30 every year and then Burke can let Evander 'cash' in.

*Ben Eager -  Simon Gysbers
Trade Gysbers for Ben Eager and his 'crazy' edge. He would join Brown and Steckel.

*Under performers with some fan backlash:Myers - Kulemin + Franson
I was surprised that Myers stumbled a bit after signing the $38.5 MIL contract that kicks in for 2012/2013 ($12 MIL salary this year!!) kind of like Luke Schenn but was more surprised seeing Buffalo fans including his name in deals on various websites.  Kulemin is a high price to pay and Franson has potential but it would give the Leafs a Hal Gill like gentle giant for years to come.

*Rumoured 'friction':Luongo (older than 25 but who cares) - Armstrong + Lombardi + Scrivens

Line up:
CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Playoff Bound Lineup

FORWARDS
Joffrey Lupul ($4.250m) / Tyler Bozak ($1.500m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Mikhail Grabovski ($5.500m) / Chris Stewart ($3.000m)
Evander Kane ($3.250m) / Joe Colborne ($1.100m) / Matt Frattin ($1.100m)
Mike Brown ($0.737m) / David Steckel ($1.100m) / Ben Eager ($1.100m)
*Jay Rosehill ($0.600m) / *Colton Orr ($1.000m)

DEFENSEMEN
Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m) / Tyler Myers ($5.500m)
John-Michael Liles ($3.875m) / Mike Komisarek ($4.500m)
Jake Gardiner ($1.117m) / *Stu Bickel ($1.100m)
*Matt Lashoff ($0.600m) /
*just place holders

GOALTENDERS
James Reimer ($1.800m)
Roberto Luongo ($5.333m)
BUYOUTS
Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $65,211,667; BONUSES: $675,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $4,988,333

MUCH tougher team.    Swap out Luongo for one Bernier, Mason, Brodeur, Halak, etc if you like.

 

[Tigger]

Without knowing the actual cap next year it's tough to speculate with any accuracy ( it's tough even with the cap numbers ) but maybe if we worked our way backwards...

The team with three ufa additions, Brodeur, Schultz, McClement...

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Joffrey Lupul ($4.250m) / Tyler Bozak ($1.500m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Mikhail Grabovski ($5.500m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.500m)
Clarke MacArthur ($3.250m) / Tim Connolly ($4.750m) / Matt Frattin ($1.100m)
Leo Komarov ($1.200m) / jay mcclement ($2.250m) / David Steckel ($1.100m)
Mike Brown ($0.737m) / Matthew Lombardi ($3.500m) / Colby Armstrong ($3.000m)
DEFENSEMEN
Carl Gunnarsson ($1.325m) / Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m)
John-Michael Liles ($3.875m) / Jake Gardiner ($1.117m)
justin schultz ($0.850m) / Cody Franson ($1.200m)
Mike Komisarek ($4.500m) / Korbinian Holzer ($0.850m)
GOALTENDERS
James Reimer ($1.800m)
martin brodeur ($6.000m)
BUYOUTS
Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $73,303,333; BONUSES: $562,500
CAP SPACE (25-man roster):- $3,103,333

I used Schultz guaranteed money as I couldn't figure a way to include a separate tally for bonuses ( the cushion should take care of that ).

Brodeur is just fashionable and McClement is greedy on my part.

I also kept the 25 man roster to illustrate the team composition and what needs to change.

I think it shows the Leafs would eventually need to shed about 9 mil in salary, that the D is probably not tough enough (same for the forwards), and that they have some trade pieces when you consider that roster and who is absent ( Colborne, Kadri, Ashton... ).

There may be enough pieces there in the context of trades to consolidate into a younger top 6 forward with a bit of jam.

Komisarek, Lombardi, Armstrong and Connolly account for 15.75 mil against the cap, the obvious area to shed cap dollars but not so easily accomplished.

 

[Corn Flake]

"NHL and NHLPA just announced 2012-13 salary cap floor and ceiling: $54.2 million at the bottom and $70.2 million at the top."

So there's your number to use.

It's funny but even with several of these oversized contracts, the Leafs still have $12 mil to spend. 

The Rangers have $19 mil to spend to fill 7 roster spots.  This frightens me.

 

[Tigger]

That is the number I used but I can't say that's the number that'll be there after the negotiations are done. If it is, great, in fact the Leafs could definitely make some moves from that, if not then they have some salary to deal with though nothing insurmountable from what I can tell.

 

[Zee]

"NHL and NHLPA just announced 2012-13 salary cap floor and ceiling: $54.2 million at the bottom and $70.2 million at the top."

So there's your number to use.

It's funny but even with several of these oversized contracts, the Leafs still have $12 mil to spend. 

The Rangers have $19 mil to spend to fill 7 roster spots.  This frightens me.

Guess the Grabovski contract fits easily now.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

If they have 12 million plus whatever they ship out, they really should be after Parise and or Suter.

 

[Zee]

If they have 12 million plus whatever they ship out, they really should be after Parise and or Suter.

Leafs never land the big fish (at least for a long while). Seems like ages ago we signed Cujo when he was still in his prime.