Unofficial 2012/2013 Armchair GM

[maplesyrup]

Grabovski for Tyutin. Who hangs up first?

 

[Champ Kind]

I've got to be honest: I really hope the Perry contract isn't a harbinger for a Kessel deal in Toronto.  If the Leafs can somehow land a strong #1C, I'm all for dealing Kessel in long-term (provided not at $8M).  But I'm just not sure this team can really move forward with him as "the man".  Lupul, in fact, will probably play that role better. 

I think moving Kessel along before the start of 2013-14, bringing in another top 6 winger (Chris Stewart?) and somehow getting their mitts on a #1C would be my preferred approach.

 

[Corn Flake]

I've got to be honest: I really hope the Perry contract isn't a harbinger for a Kessel deal in Toronto.  If the Leafs can somehow land a strong #1C, I'm all for dealing Kessel in long-term (provided not at $8M).  But I'm just not sure this team can really move forward with him as "the man".  Lupul, in fact, will probably play that role better. 

I think moving Kessel along before the start of 2013-14, bringing in another top 6 winger (Chris Stewart?) and somehow getting their mitts on a #1C would be my preferred approach.

Along that same vein, I'm starting to wonder if Lupul / JVR / Kadri is where the Leafs want to go with as primary weapons up front, with Lupul stepping into a larger leadership role (he already is) and do something with Kessel before his deal is up.

It would all depend on what Kessel expects in a contract and/or what he is worth on the market. 

re: Chris Stewart.. the time to get him has passed I think. he's leading the Blues in scoring right now.  Whups.

 

[Britishbulldog]

I've got to be honest: I really hope the Perry contract isn't a harbinger for a Kessel deal in Toronto.  If the Leafs can somehow land a strong #1C, I'm all for dealing Kessel in long-term (provided not at $8M).  But I'm just not sure this team can really move forward with him as "the man".  Lupul, in fact, will probably play that role better. 

I think moving Kessel along before the start of 2013-14, bringing in another top 6 winger (Chris Stewart?) and somehow getting their mitts on a #1C would be my preferred approach.

Along that same vein, I'm starting to wonder if Lupul / JVR / Kadri is where the Leafs want to go with as primary weapons up front, with Lupul stepping into a larger leadership role (he already is) and do something with Kessel before his deal is up.

It would all depend on what Kessel expects in a contract and/or what he is worth on the market. 

re: Chris Stewart.. the time to get him has passed I think. he's leading the Blues in scoring right now.  Whups.

Agreed on Stewart.  I figured if the Leafs could have gotten him, Chris would have busted out of his funk and would have earned Lupul/E Kane money at $5.25 MIL to keep him.

The Leafs need Grabovski to break out of his funk now.

Seeing Lupul play with skill/tenacity and sign a decent contract it really puts the lime light on Kessel and Grabovski as higher paid forwards.  If Kessel is looking for $8 MIL + than he has to be cut loose.  E Staal, Getzlaf, etc are able to change a game on their own.  Kessel isn't.  I see Kessel more in line with J Staal, Bobby Ryan, Patrick Sharp but below Patrick Kane.  That is more in line with $5.5 to $6 MIL a year.

 

[Britishbulldog]

Bozak for O'Byrne - both expiring contracts.  Both are good-not-great players. I think this is quite even, maybe even quite in Colorado's favor, but then again I don't hate Bozak like many do.

I think an O'Byrne trade might be a decent one for a 4th dman.  After looking at the whole proposed trade, I don't know if the Leafs could absorb Stastny's contract with the other forwards currently signed.

I also don't understand how Stastny's numbers could be so good the 1st few years and so mediocre the last few years.  He didn't do a 'Kulemin' and have a single great year but he also didn't do a 'Getzlaf' and have a single off year.

If we got the ppg Stastny then the $6.6 MIL is fantastic, if we get the 'Bozak' Stastny then I would rather keep Bozak at around half the salary and better FO%.

 

[princedpw]

Bozak for O'Byrne - both expiring contracts.  Both are good-not-great players. I think this is quite even, maybe even quite in Colorado's favor, but then again I don't hate Bozak like many do.

I think an O'Byrne trade might be a decent one for a 4th dman.  After looking at the whole proposed trade, I don't know if the Leafs could absorb Stastny's contract with the other forwards currently signed.

I also don't understand how Stastny's numbers could be so good the 1st few years and so mediocre the last few years.  He didn't do a 'Kulemin' and have a single great year but he also didn't do a 'Getzlaf' and have a single off year.

If we got the ppg Stastny then the $6.6 MIL is fantastic, if we get the 'Bozak' Stastny then I would rather keep Bozak at around half the salary and better FO%.

Who are Statsny's wingers?  (Does he play against top competition and start in the defensive zone frequently while Duchene and O'Rielly start in the Ozone?)

 

[princedpw]

... the more you look at Bozak's numbers, the worse they look.

Also, these days, when I see him play, I see no discernable chemistry with Kessel.

I really wonder if you put Mcclement on the first line: would it be better?  worse?  the same offensively?  better defensively?

 

[Corn Flake]

Seeing Lupul play with skill/tenacity and sign a decent contract it really puts the lime light on Kessel and Grabovski as higher paid forwards.  If Kessel is looking for $8 MIL + than he has to be cut loose.  E Staal, Getzlaf, etc are able to change a game on their own.  Kessel isn't.  I see Kessel more in line with J Staal, Bobby Ryan, Patrick Sharp but below Patrick Kane.  That is more in line with $5.5 to $6 MIL a year.

In one game back he scored two goals, waved his hands to get the crowd to make more noise noise and gave one very articulate interview post game and wasn't afraid to give it to them a little bit.  All in all, that is the type of personality we need to lead this team in this city and not have the shy guys who would rather hide in the background.  I think the character to do those things is reflective of what players need to be able to handle the pressure and attention here.

Early this year, there was talk about Lupul becoming a face of the franchise and I thought it was unlikely, but now I'm starting to see it more and more as a reality.

Yeah Kessel isn't hitting $7 mil, IMO.. he would have to put up 45-45-90 next year and truly evolve as the legit leader of this team to be in that range.  Right now I see him as a 4-5 year $6.5 guy at the max. I was thinking more earlier on but the way this season is evolving for him, the reliance on him as the dominant player on the team is starting to reduce.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

... the more you look at Bozak's numbers, the worse they look.

Also, these days, when I see him play, I see no discernable chemistry with Kessel.

I really wonder if you put Mcclement on the first line: would it be better?  worse?  the same offensively?  better defensively?

The numbers have always looked pretty poor relative to where he's playing - 3rd line numbers on a 1st line with two guys putting up 1st line points.  And yeah, there's no real chemistry, he just passes to Kessel's side every chance he gets and, like the blind squirrel, once in awhile it works.

 

[princedpw]

... the more you look at Bozak's numbers, the worse they look.

Also, these days, when I see him play, I see no discernable chemistry with Kessel.

I really wonder if you put Mcclement on the first line: would it be better?  worse?  the same offensively?  better defensively?

The numbers have always looked pretty poor relative to where he's playing - 3rd line numbers on a 1st line with two guys putting up 1st line points.  And yeah, there's no real chemistry, he just passes to Kessel's side every chance he gets and, like the blind squirrel, once in awhile it works.

That's what I get out of it too ... he blindly throws it to Kessel and you really can't avoid getting some points that way.

 

[Frank E]

Bozak for O'Byrne - both expiring contracts.  Both are good-not-great players. I think this is quite even, maybe even quite in Colorado's favor, but then again I don't hate Bozak like many do.

I think an O'Byrne trade might be a decent one for a 4th dman.  After looking at the whole proposed trade, I don't know if the Leafs could absorb Stastny's contract with the other forwards currently signed.

I also don't understand how Stastny's numbers could be so good the 1st few years and so mediocre the last few years.  He didn't do a 'Kulemin' and have a single great year but he also didn't do a 'Getzlaf' and have a single off year.

If we got the ppg Stastny then the $6.6 MIL is fantastic, if we get the 'Bozak' Stastny then I would rather keep Bozak at around half the salary and better FO%.

Who are Statsny's wingers?  (Does he play against top competition and start in the defensive zone frequently while Duchene and O'Rielly start in the Ozone?)

@Potvin - is that right?

 

[Boston Leaf]

After watching Stastny the last couple of years I don't think he is much better than Bozak and way more expensive..

 

[Corn Flake]

After watching Stastny the last couple of years I don't think he is much better than Bozak and way more expensive..

But apparently Bozak is awful in everything he does. So awful we are locating a boxcar to run him out of town in. 

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Bozak for O'Byrne - both expiring contracts.  Both are good-not-great players. I think this is quite even, maybe even quite in Colorado's favor, but then again I don't hate Bozak like many do.

I think an O'Byrne trade might be a decent one for a 4th dman.  After looking at the whole proposed trade, I don't know if the Leafs could absorb Stastny's contract with the other forwards currently signed.

I also don't understand how Stastny's numbers could be so good the 1st few years and so mediocre the last few years.  He didn't do a 'Kulemin' and have a single great year but he also didn't do a 'Getzlaf' and have a single off year.

If we got the ppg Stastny then the $6.6 MIL is fantastic, if we get the 'Bozak' Stastny then I would rather keep Bozak at around half the salary and better FO%.

Who are Statsny's wingers?  (Does he play against top competition and start in the defensive zone frequently while Duchene and O'Rielly start in the Ozone?)

@Potvin - is that right?

Stastny - OZone start% - 40.1% (2nd lowest on team behind David Jones)
Duchene - 48.3%
O'Reilly - 54.4%

Stastny's quality of competition is higher than either of those 2 as well, and his Corsi relative to his QOC is also 2nd on the team (Landeskog is 1st) - not a huge spread between him and Duchene or Parenteau, but his minutes do seem tougher and he still seems to be driving possession.

Last game Stastny was playing with John Mitchell & Milan Hejduk.

 

[Kin]

I've got to be honest: I really hope the Perry contract isn't a harbinger for a Kessel deal in Toronto .

I think it will be, one way or the other. That's not to say that Kessel will get the same money Perry got, one year aberration or not being able to point to a Hart trophy is going to break some eggs come contract time, but it is going to be a part of the salary structure that Kessel is going to be working within.

I think one of the things we're going to see going forward is that because it's so uncommon for big time talent to hit free agency that when that's looming for a player like Kessel he'll be able to, in his negotiations with the Leafs, point to all of the teams that have cap space for next summer and the relative lack of options  for them to spend it.

So 8.6 million? No. But I definitely don't think he'll sign long term for 6.5 or something like that.

 

[Frank E]

Bozak for O'Byrne - both expiring contracts.  Both are good-not-great players. I think this is quite even, maybe even quite in Colorado's favor, but then again I don't hate Bozak like many do.

I think an O'Byrne trade might be a decent one for a 4th dman.  After looking at the whole proposed trade, I don't know if the Leafs could absorb Stastny's contract with the other forwards currently signed.

I also don't understand how Stastny's numbers could be so good the 1st few years and so mediocre the last few years.  He didn't do a 'Kulemin' and have a single great year but he also didn't do a 'Getzlaf' and have a single off year.

If we got the ppg Stastny then the $6.6 MIL is fantastic, if we get the 'Bozak' Stastny then I would rather keep Bozak at around half the salary and better FO%.

Who are Statsny's wingers?  (Does he play against top competition and start in the defensive zone frequently while Duchene and O'Rielly start in the Ozone?)

@Potvin - is that right?

Stastny - OZone start% - 40.1% (2nd lowest on team behind David Jones)
Duchene - 48.3%
O'Reilly - 54.4%

Stastny's quality of competition is higher than either of those 2 as well, and his Corsi relative to his QOC is also 2nd on the team (Landeskog is 1st) - not a huge spread between him and Duchene or Parenteau, but his minutes do seem tougher and he still seems to be driving possession.

Last game Stastny was playing with John Mitchell & Milan Hejduk.

Atta boy Potvin.

I really don't know his game at all, as I haven't seen the Avs play in forever.

 

[Corn Flake]

Stastny - OZone start% - 40.1% (2nd lowest on team behind David Jones)
Duchene - 48.3%
O'Reilly - 54.4%

Stastny's quality of competition is higher than either of those 2 as well, and his Corsi relative to his QOC is also 2nd on the team (Landeskog is 1st) - not a huge spread between him and Duchene or Parenteau, but his minutes do seem tougher and he still seems to be driving possession.

Last game Stastny was playing with John Mitchell & Milan Hejduk.

So with those numbers plus the fact he's logging the 2nd most ice time (behind Duchene) for forwards, suggests he is likely in primarily a defensive role.  I think the -8 also speaks to that a bit.

So bring him here, give him more offensive wingers, somewhat less defensive responsibility and we could see the old Paul Stastny revived.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Stastny - OZone start% - 40.1% (2nd lowest on team behind David Jones)
Duchene - 48.3%
O'Reilly - 54.4%

Stastny's quality of competition is higher than either of those 2 as well, and his Corsi relative to his QOC is also 2nd on the team (Landeskog is 1st) - not a huge spread between him and Duchene or Parenteau, but his minutes do seem tougher and he still seems to be driving possession.

Last game Stastny was playing with John Mitchell & Milan Hejduk.

So with those numbers plus the fact he's logging the 2nd most ice time (behind Duchene) for forwards, suggests he is likely in primarily a defensive role.  I think the -8 also speaks to that a bit.

So bring him here, give him more offensive wingers, somewhat less defensive responsibility and we could see the old Paul Stastny revived.

Yeah, he gets over 2:00/game on both the PK and the PP, which is reflected in having the 2nd most PP points on the team.

 

[Champ Kind]

I've got to be honest: I really hope the Perry contract isn't a harbinger for a Kessel deal in Toronto .

I think it will be, one way or the other. That's not to say that Kessel will get the same money Perry got, one year aberration or not being able to point to a Hart trophy is going to break some eggs come contract time, but it is going to be a part of the salary structure that Kessel is going to be working within.

I think one of the things we're going to see going forward is that because it's so uncommon for big time talent to hit free agency that when that's looming for a player like Kessel he'll be able to, in his negotiations with the Leafs, point to all of the teams that have cap space for next summer and the relative lack of options  for them to spend it.

So 8.6 million? No. But I definitely don't think he'll sign long term for 6.5 or something like that.

I would tend to agree with you assessment.  Which is why this trade deadline might be the exact time the Leafs maximize Kessel's value.  Again, I just don't see a 8 year, $60M committment to Phil Kessel as being something this team should entertain.

 

[Redleaf]

I've got to be honest: I really hope the Perry contract isn't a harbinger for a Kessel deal in Toronto .

I think it will be, one way or the other. That's not to say that Kessel will get the same money Perry got, one year aberration or not being able to point to a Hart trophy is going to break some eggs come contract time, but it is going to be a part of the salary structure that Kessel is going to be working within.

I think one of the things we're going to see going forward is that because it's so uncommon for big time talent to hit free agency that when that's looming for a player like Kessel he'll be able to, in his negotiations with the Leafs, point to all of the teams that have cap space for next summer and the relative lack of options  for them to spend it.

So 8.6 million? No. But I definitely don't think he'll sign long term for 6.5 or something like that.

I would tend to agree with you assessment.  Which is why this trade deadline might be the exact time the Leafs maximize Kessel's value.  Again, I just don't see a 8 year, $60M committment to Phil Kessel as being something this team should entertain.

While this may be true, who do you replace him with, and at what cost?