Unofficial 2012/2013 Armchair GM

[Britishbulldog]

Why would MacArthur not fit in the top 6?  He has provided top 6 scoring since he's been here, and I think he's played a pretty good all-around game.

You're right.  I guess I'm thinking that where MacArthur is good value for his contract and has played pretty consistently as a Leaf, Burke might be able to use him to get a better top 6 player that is in a inharmonious situation like Ryan or Kane.

The whole '3 nickles for a dime' scenario.

 

[Tigger]

So the line up could be something like:

Lupul (JVR) / Getzlaf / Kessel

Lupul (JVR) / Grabovski / Ryan or Kane (or Stewart)

Frattin / McClement / Komarov

Brown / Steckel / Eager

The defense seems awkward to me but I'll leave that alone for now.

Asking for two more bonafide top six players is a lot, I'd love it but it's pretty out there. They'll be lucky to get one more.

Even so, leaving aside the top six you have there, and what they're saying about where players will play, I'd try something like this...

Kulemin Bozak/Connolly Frattin
Komarov McClement Steckel
Brown

... more of a 'top 9 - bottom 3' notion.

You had two of those guys as trade bait, I'm assuming they don't all go.

I don't really care for Eager, fwiw.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Why would MacArthur not fit in the top 6?  He has provided top 6 scoring since he's been here, and I think he's played a pretty good all-around game.

You're right.  I guess I'm thinking that where MacArthur is good value for his contract and has played pretty consistently as a Leaf, Burke might be able to use him to get a better top 6 player that is in a inharmonious situation like Ryan or Kane.

The whole '3 nickles for a dime' scenario.

Not a perfect way to do it, but this was posted on twitter recently:

THE STATS GUY ‏@TH2NSTATSGUY

'Top 6 forward' myth - 30 teams, 6 forwards per = 180 forwards that meet criteria...180th forward in scoring had 32 pts... #teamsaver?

I think we sometimes expect a lot more offensive production out of all of the top 6 than is probably realistic.

 

[Britishbulldog]

So the line up could be something like:

Lupul (JVR) / Getzlaf / Kessel

Lupul (JVR) / Grabovski / Ryan or Kane (or Stewart)

Frattin / McClement / Komarov

Brown / Steckel / Eager

The defense seems awkward to me but I'll leave that alone for now.

Asking for two more bonafide top six players is a lot, I'd love it but it's pretty out there. They'll be lucky to get one more.

Getting Getzlaf is pure fanstasy.  I do not see any (realistic) reason for Anaheim to trade him.  Any. Still, he represents the answer to the Leaf's need at center perfectly though.

The 3 wingers are all available I believe and can be picked up if there was a consensus that Kane (my preference), Ryan or Stewart would improve the current 'top 6'.

Even so, leaving aside the top six you have there, and what they're saying about where players will play, I'd try something like this...

Kulemin Bozak/Connolly Frattin
Komarov McClement Steckel
Brown

... more of a 'top 9 - bottom 3' notion.

You had two of those guys as trade bait, I'm assuming they don't all go.

Leaving Getzlaf out of the equation and hoping that Connolly is let loose creatively I would still like to see Burke add one more forward and my top 9 would look something like this:

JVR (Lupul) / Connolly / Kessel

Kane / Grabovski / Lupul (JVR)

Frattin / Bozak / Kulemin

...I can't see having McClement 4th line center and Steckel (who is one of the league leaders on FO%) as 4th Line LW. 

So...I kind of agree with you (as you can see by my 3rd line) and kind of don't.

I don't really care for Eager, fwiw.

A lot of hockey fans don't care for Eager.  He is not quite as bad as Steve Webb, Raffi Torres or Colby Armstrong but he is close.  Eager is the answer to intimidation though which the Canucks needed 2 years ago against the Bruins.

The management and coaching seem to love Brown, McClement was just given a 2 year contract, Steckel is on the best faceoff men in the whole NHL, and Frattin showed himself as a RW smooth skating, hard hitting player with a scoring touch. 

Komarov is being touted also as a LW smooth skating, hard hitting player with a scoring touch (I obviously feel that he is redundant to Frattin but think he might get a shot on the Leafs roster as well). 

So being forced to Connolly and wanting just one legitimate fighter on the team here is still my fantasy but one trying to be a little more realistic with the use of assets:


JVR / Connolly / Kessel

Kane / Grabovski / Lupul

Frattin / McClement / Kulemin

Brown / Steckel / Eager

The defense is not impressive to me at all but I am not sure what the options are there based on the past 3 years which have been sobering to say the least.

 

[Britishbulldog]

Why would MacArthur not fit in the top 6?  He has provided top 6 scoring since he's been here, and I think he's played a pretty good all-around game.

You're right.  I guess I'm thinking that where MacArthur is good value for his contract and has played pretty consistently as a Leaf, Burke might be able to use him to get a better top 6 player that is in a inharmonious situation like Ryan or Kane.

The whole '3 nickles for a dime' scenario.

Not a perfect way to do it, but this was posted on twitter recently:

THE STATS GUY ‏@TH2NSTATSGUY

'Top 6 forward' myth - 30 teams, 6 forwards per = 180 forwards that meet criteria...180th forward in scoring had 32 pts... #teamsaver?

I think we sometimes expect a lot more offensive production out of all of the top 6 than is probably realistic.

Thanks P29,  that's interesting.

 

[maplesyrup]

I'd dig Connolly getting a shot at the first line. Partly because I'd like to see the contract justified.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

I'd dig Connolly getting a shot at the first line. Partly because I'd like to see the contract justified.

Me also, but if Burke can move him and find an upgrade in that top slot, that is my first choice.

 

[L K]

Why would MacArthur not fit in the top 6?  He has provided top 6 scoring since he's been here, and I think he's played a pretty good all-around game.

You're right.  I guess I'm thinking that where MacArthur is good value for his contract and has played pretty consistently as a Leaf, Burke might be able to use him to get a better top 6 player that is in a inharmonious situation like Ryan or Kane.

The whole '3 nickles for a dime' scenario.

Not a perfect way to do it, but this was posted on twitter recently:

THE STATS GUY ‏@TH2NSTATSGUY

'Top 6 forward' myth - 30 teams, 6 forwards per = 180 forwards that meet criteria...180th forward in scoring had 32 pts... #teamsaver?

I think we sometimes expect a lot more offensive production out of all of the top 6 than is probably realistic.

Thanks P29,  that's interesting.

The big thing I would say about that is there is a huge difference between Steve Ott's 39 points and Clarke MacArthur's 43 points.  It's not just the raw point total, but what they do on top of the offensive production. 

I'd take Jay McClemment's 30 points over Clarke MacArthur's 43 points because of the defensive role that Jay also plays for his team.  Point totals are good, but the top teams have guys who put up points AND can play defense.  The Leafs score a lot but can't stop anyone, so they still need to improve their top 6.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

The big thing I would say about that is there is a huge difference between Steve Ott's 39 points and Clarke MacArthur's 43 points.  It's not just the raw point total, but what they do on top of the offensive production. 

I'd take Jay McClemment's 30 points over Clarke MacArthur's 43 points because of the defensive role that Jay also plays for his team.  Point totals are good, but the top teams have guys who put up points AND can play defense.  The Leafs score a lot but can't stop anyone, so they still need to improve their top 6.

It's a good point, even if I can't say too much bad about Clarke McArthur. The Leafs do really need two-way players, even if do lean towards the offensive side of things. Team defense is their Achilles heal IMO.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

The big thing I would say about that is there is a huge difference between Steve Ott's 39 points and Clarke MacArthur's 43 points.  It's not just the raw point total, but what they do on top of the offensive production. 

How do you figure there is a huge difference?  The offensive stats are nearly equal there, and the underlying advanced stats show:

MacArthur- Corsi Rel: 7.2, Corsi Rel QOC: 0.720
Ott - Corsi Rel: 6.8, Corsi Rel QOC: 0.614

MacArthur faced the second toughest quality of competition among Leafs forwards (behind Kulemin).

Now the thing that would tip the scales towards Ott for me is that he plays 1:45 on the PK, whereas MacArthur plays none.  But 5 on 5 it's basically a wash.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Here is one trade that I would propose to make.

To Toronto: Halak, Stewart and Max Gardiner
To St. Louis: Kadri, Franson, Scrivens, Lombardi and 3rd rounder.

I'm not sure how much the Blues want to trade right now, but I think that's a decent deal for both clubs. Thoughts?

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

Why would MacArthur not fit in the top 6?  He has provided top 6 scoring since he's been here, and I think he's played a pretty good all-around game.

You're right.  I guess I'm thinking that where MacArthur is good value for his contract and has played pretty consistently as a Leaf, Burke might be able to use him to get a better top 6 player that is in a inharmonious situation like Ryan or Kane.

The whole '3 nickles for a dime' scenario.

Not a perfect way to do it, but this was posted on twitter recently:

THE STATS GUY ‏@TH2NSTATSGUY

'Top 6 forward' myth - 30 teams, 6 forwards per = 180 forwards that meet criteria...180th forward in scoring had 32 pts... #teamsaver?

I think we sometimes expect a lot more offensive production out of all of the top 6 than is probably realistic.

While I think that's true, I'd also argue that perhaps it's more worthwhile to consider what would be statistically average for 2nd liners, and not the absolute worst 2nd liner stat.  For that, one would consider 135th in forward scoring, and not 180th.  The 135th top scorer among forwards picked up 41 points.

The same number of 41 points also applies to the prior year, which really makes the trio of Mac, Grabs, and Kulemin stand out, with 62, 58 and 57 points.  That's top 51 in NHL scoring for all 3, which remains pretty impressive as a line.  Statistically, the average first liner would have ranked 45th in NHL scoring among forwards, which is 62 points.  If those guys can regain their form and Kessel and Lupul can maintain it, that's really two top lines.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Well said good sir.

 

[Tigger]

Getting Getzlaf is pure fanstasy.  I do not see any (realistic) reason for Anaheim to trade him.  Any.

Ok, cool.

The 3 wingers are all available I believe and can be picked up if there was a consensus that Kane (my preference), Ryan or Stewart would improve the current 'top 6'.

Again, I don't see any of those as likely, even one of those players would be fine by me but I'm not crossing my fingers.

my top 9 would look something like this:

JVR (Lupul) / Connolly / Kessel

Kane / Grabovski / Lupul (JVR)

Frattin / Bozak / Kulemin

...I can't see having McClement 4th line center and Steckel (who is one of the league leaders on FO%) as 4th Line LW.

Yeah, I think Connolly and Bozak are kind of interchangeable there, if it had to go that way my inclination would be to keep Bozak on the top line but it could go either way, which isn't a real knock but it's kind of blah.

I disagree with the notion of using Jay the way they're talking, I always thought of him as a 4C with special teams excellence. I'd rather see the Leafs use both of them to counter the opponents better forwards and kill penalties. If your top 9 were deployed that way I think it could make them better.

I'd give Steckel the 4R assignment, though it's handy to have him to spot in other situations too, but I don't mean a 8-10 toi, more like 11-13 giving a lot of relief to the other lines, hopefully. I think Komarov will get a long look and I'm hoping for the best, but I'd start with the 4L spot and see what happens.

I kind of like the third line option with Frattin and Kulemin, good checkers who can shoot, and either of the softer centres ( though with skill and some hockey iq ). I mean, it could be better but it's not horrible.

Frattin / McClement / Kulemin

Brown / Steckel / Eager

I don't hate that third line, I could be wrong, maybe McClement and Steckel centering the 3rd and 4th lines will work out. I still don't like Eager, mostly because I don't think they need him and don't want to spend anything on him.

The defense is not impressive to me at all but I am not sure what the options are there based on the past 3 years which have been sobering to say the least.

They're not physical enough as a group, setting aside Komisarek's almost gimme a game, it's a little too one sided, I mean Liles seems like a 3L PP specialist. The shut down pair from the Marlies seem like decent depth candidates. Maybe a move or two clears things up a bit but it could look like this...

Gunnarsson Phaneuf
Gardiner      Franson
Liles            Komisarek
Fraser        Holzer

 

[L K]

The big thing I would say about that is there is a huge difference between Steve Ott's 39 points and Clarke MacArthur's 43 points.  It's not just the raw point total, but what they do on top of the offensive production. 

How do you figure there is a huge difference?  The offensive stats are nearly equal there, and the underlying advanced stats show:

MacArthur- Corsi Rel: 7.2, Corsi Rel QOC: 0.720
Ott - Corsi Rel: 6.8, Corsi Rel QOC: 0.614

MacArthur faced the second toughest quality of competition among Leafs forwards (behind Kulemin).

Now the thing that would tip the scales towards Ott for me is that he plays 1:45 on the PK, whereas MacArthur plays none.  But 5 on 5 it's basically a wash.

Yeah, I was thinking of the PK stuff more than just 5 on 5.  I also value guys who can take faceoffs, and the versatility of Ott who has ably lined up as a LW/RW and C. 

I think MacArthur is a top 6 forward.  He's done enough the past two years to show that, but I think there are flaws in his defensive performance and I think that further bears out in his defensive play. 

Also, I'm not a huge fan of the CORSI stat to be honest.  I think it's a good stepping stone stat, but I think it is way too hard to properly isolate quality of competition in a game that moves as fast as the NHL. 

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Fair enough, and I agree with your other points on Ott.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Here is one trade that I would propose to make.

To Toronto: Halak, Stewart and Max Gardiner
To St. Louis: Kadri, Franson, Scrivens, Lombardi and 3rd rounder.

I'm not sure how much the Blues want to trade right now, but I think that's a decent deal for both clubs. Thoughts?

I don't think St. Louis has any interest in trading a goalie. Especially with the way Elliott struggled in their playoff defeat.

 

[Palmateer29]

They're not physical enough as a group, setting aside Komisarek's almost gimme a game, it's a little too one sided, I mean Liles seems like a 3L PP specialist. The shut down pair from the Marlies seem like decent depth candidates. Maybe a move or two clears things up a bit but it could look like this...

Gunnarsson Phaneuf
Gardiner      Franson
Liles            Komisarek
Fraser        Holzer

I think the second pairing is a train wreck waiting to happen. Gardiner needs to work on his defense and Franson is brutal defensively. Both are pretty soft defenders and I can see quite a bit of time spent in the defensive end with Gardiner and Franson paired up.

How is Holzer defensively?

 

[nutman]

I'm thinking Lombardi is a big sleeper that will slide right into the top six. I also think Kulemin does the rubber biskit. I also think it will be a war for jobs this season with all the talent we have up front.

 

[Tigger]

They're not physical enough as a group, setting aside Komisarek's almost gimme a game, it's a little too one sided, I mean Liles seems like a 3L PP specialist. The shut down pair from the Marlies seem like decent depth candidates. Maybe a move or two clears things up a bit but it could look like this...

Gunnarsson Phaneuf
Gardiner      Franson
Liles            Komisarek
Fraser        Holzer

I think the second pairing is a train wreck waiting to happen. Gardiner needs to work on his defense and Franson is brutal defensively. Both are pretty soft defenders and I can see quite a bit of time spent in the defensive end with Gardiner and Franson paired up.

How is Holzer defensively?

Holzer's capable, so's Fraser. It's tough to say right now but I'm a little afraid of everything past the first pairing and even that is saying something as Gunnarsson really isn't a first pairing dman, just capable of complimenting Phaneuf, which isn't nothing but kind of lacking.